Sunday, March 3, 2013

ITALY!

Just when you thought you were out, they pull you back in. Another followup on last weeks Italy post to check on our Euro "recovery". Of course there are the attempts to keep the media lid on this until a technocratic solution to the election can be implemented. Beppe Grillo's faction is just one component of OVER 57% of the vote that was against the EU austerity agenda supported candidates. You can label the technocrats in full panic as they furiously work behind the scenes to scrap together another EU favorable government coalition that will thwart the anti-austerity voters. Most Italian voters are seeing this as an "elitist" driven "end around" move designed to usurp what little democracy is left. Grillo is becoming more vocal and Stefano Fassina, Pd economics chief, said his party is opposed to ANY technocrat government and that 90% of the country has thrown the Monti agenda to the curb and has issued warnings that it would be a "grave error" to force through the same agenda again. It looks as though the Italians are getting ready to take a stand. If the peeps are not appeased then the streets of Italy will begin to warm up. Right now it is impossible to see the outcome, but if the past is used as a template then expect a full out attempt to place another technocrat in power. If they do not get the technocrat, then an all out breakdown in Italian debt will occur before the summer is out. Only a massive intervention by the ECB would forestall that eventuality. What are the odds that the Fed and ECB will print without their technocrats in charge in Italy? This is a CONtrol issue that if not resolved could serve as a fuse for the Eurozone implosion. You can only push these populations so far. They are not uninformed on the game like U.S. citizens. 

On this continent the game of extend and pretend remains firmly in place. Traders and investors in the PM space are reaching the turning point in sentiment on the miner and PM trade. My target of mid-March remains intact. If they really hammer the miners I plan to enter new money into a taxable account and will play the casino if they give me the fat pitch. The restoration of CONfidence remains full throttle and those unable to see the forest for the trees will not be treated kindly by the game. This is a process that is designed to maintain a state of calm inside a raging hurricane. Or as some say a process of boiling a frog by slowly turning up the heat. 



71 comments:

  1. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=YGAaPjqdbgQ#!

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  2. Grillo saying if necessary, Italy will go back to the lire...that should heat things up...I read his constituency is all under age 50.

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  3. http://www.beppegrillo.it/en/

    Compliments of Chef Franco

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  4. Thanks Tom, that is really,really interesting. He's exactly right; it's all a bunch of old men (and I'm old) who need to GO in the USA too. I hope he accomplishes his goal of disrupting their stranglehold at least for a while. They purport to care about their respective countries and it's all a farce so it's fitting that he is a comedian. It's perfect!

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  5. Also, great video Kli...sums it all up nicely. The question is will the sheeple wake up? I guess the history of the world says no.

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  6. Just to continue the discussion from the last thread, as a proud red-piller for many years, I know exactly what's going on in the world around us. However, sometimes things don't make any sense that makes me question things, and I believe that's only human nature. But you continue to learn and move on every day.

    In my humble opinion, plain old cash is the best place to be right now. This fed-injected, government assisted (with fraudulent stats/figures) stock market rally can go on indefinitely, and going against that trade is silly. But I'm expecting some sort of a correction soon, which I hope will provide a buying dip and that's why it's good to have some dry powder. I'm not going to committ any funds at these levels, but a 10-20% decline, if it happens, would be a nice gift. Ben has made it very clear that he will not stop printing, and will not allow the markets to crash, and there are places to make money, even something as simple as an index fund would do.

    The PM beatdown will probably continue, and if that happens, someone like myself with cash looking to get into bullion will definitely take advantage.

    When they finally decide to bring this thing down, it will be ugly, but as Doctrader mentioned, it may be the 2020s before that happens, and I'd hate to be on the wrong side for the next 7-10 years. For the longest time, I was convinced that 2012-2014 would be that period, but it's not looking very likely.

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  7. Continuing from the last thread:

    I didn't mean to imply from my last post that Jim Sinclair felt that the ENTIRE revaluation of gold will occur this month. But, I do believe he said that at some point, the Central Banks will revalue gold higher to help balance their balance sheets. Some of this movement may start this month.

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    1. I do not know if there will be ANY "catalyst" that begins gold's move upward this months. If indeed it does begin its move it will be a move that's NOT felt to be genuine as its moving up. Think of it as a akin to a "wall of worry" and very few of the peeps sitting on the sidelines will not get in as it just moves higher. THEY DONT WANT YOU IN THE TRADE

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  8. Connect the Dot's

    Bueller? Bueller? Bueller? anyone? anyone?

    http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2013/03/obama-dhs-purchases-2700-light-armored-tanks-to-go-with-their-1-6-billion-bullet-stockpile/

    Watch the Video very telling!!!!!

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  9. it's funny, the cnbc props Buffett out, and there is no talk about the "sequester". hehe

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  10. Connect the Dot's

    http://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-57572207-38/dhs-built-domestic-surveillance-tech-into-predator-drones/

    One Vet's Nightmare....

    http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/guns/2012/may/23/miller-iraq-vet-brutalized-over-guns-dc/
    http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/guns/2012/may/28/miller-swat-rampage-destroys-iraq-vets-home-over-g/
    http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/guns/2012/jun/5/miller-iraq-vet-jailed-two-weeks-guns/
    http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/guns/2012/jun/11/miller-cover-dcs-arrest-iraq-vet/

    Executive Orders....

    http://www.nyfirearms.com/blog/2013/01/obama-23-executive-actions-towards-guns/

    From the Boy Genius's "Stupid is as Stupid Does" file

    http://www.nyfirearms.com/blog/2013/02/31-crimes-that-are-worse-than-having-more-than-7-rounds/

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  11. HL getting killed on this news...hehehehhe....its a big position of mine....

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/04/aurizon-offer-idUSL4N0BW47220130304?feedType=RSS&feedName=basicMaterialsSector&rpc=43

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    1. This is just the beginning of this. These miners are TOO cheap. Going to get gobbled up.

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    2. all I'm doing is rebalancing my portfolio.....heavier HL and AUMN today. Will not say what I sold since it will probably double tomorrow

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    3. Some will be 10-20 baggers in 2 years and some will be broke....

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  12. Clearing the deck chairs on the Titanic today on miners. Flushing the stops in several.....hehehe....AUMN getting the shaft now.

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  13. Replies
    1. I was hoping for it to tag 200 before grabbing some LEAP puts on it. But it may not get there... now I don't want to chase haha ;) Plus the premium is pretty high.

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    2. Yup I see its collapsing now

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  14. http://www.brotherjohnf.com/wp-content/uploads/SILVER3313.jpg

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  15. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-04/12-things-just-happened-show-next-wave-economic-collapse-almost-here

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  16. Exploration spending to decrease but gold/copper will hold up best according to this Reuters article: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/04/mining-pdac-exploration-idUSL1N0BW02E20130304

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  17. Also notice they start the biggest flashes down right at 11:30 when the vol. is lightest. Just for buying purposes. Of course, they crash 'em again when London closes.

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    Replies
    1. Those SPY puts were not a good idea... good grief! I just want out at near even now. Come on market swoon just 20 points for me ;)

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  18. Ouch:

    Apple Inc. (AAPL)
    -NasdaqGS

    423.23 Down 7.24(1.68%) 11:56AM EST - Nasdaq Real Time Price


    Abandon ship Ouch Ouch:

    Hecla Mining Co. (HL)
    -NYSE

    4.1050 Down 0.5350(11.53%) 11:57AM EST - Nasdaq Real Time Price

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  19. Who flushed the miner toilet today??!!

    Golden Minerals Company (AUMN)
    -NYSE MKT

    2.37 Down 0.38(13.82%) 12:01PM EST - Nasdaq Real Time Price

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    1. now this is starting feel like a bottom.....blood in the streets

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  20. SVM also continues to enter new depths of dispair.

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  21. Silvercorp Metals Inc. (SVM)
    3.41 Down 0.22(6.06%) 12:21PM EST - Nasdaq Real Time Price

    Very high volume on all the miner trouncing.
    Is this institutional selling or just massive government printed manipulation?

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    Replies
    1. more precisely is this the flush of the weak hands with stop running and the short covering finally establishing the "bottom"? well well well......someone with cash here could look very good ....Budfox...are you buying here???....hehhehe......blood in the streets ...

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  22. SVM is insanity. Hell the dividend is 3 percent now?

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  23. Jeez to think we were swing trading SVM in the $9 area...... Ouch

    Oh for the "wash, Rinse, Repeat" cycle

    http://todaynews.today.com/_news/2013/03/04/17179710-jeb-bush-i-wont-rule-out-2016-white-house-run-but-i-wont-declare-today?lite

    Uhhggggggg......

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  24. Official now......total flush......absolute blood in the streets move here

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  25. As much as I hate to say it I think we have further downside. Why not retest the 08 lows at this point?

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    Replies
    1. Yowza....they blamed "liquidation" as the culprit...this time all they can blame is "manipulation"...hehehhee.......IF I were in cash here I would buy in chunks on down with my favs....alas.....I am just riding the ship

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    2. Ideally another flush day and reversal tomorrow.

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  26. I wish all of you could here the CNBS heads now.....they are talking about the 60 minutes episode last night on China's Ghost Cities......WE HAVE TALKED ABOUT THIS STORY over 4years AGO.....FOUR YEARS...Now they are showing on MSM the massive empty cities in China. CNBS is saying that the Chinese don't trust their stock market and are pouring money into residential property..."ANY ASSET OTHER THAN CASH"....So do you understand why the Gold price must be controlled here???????? If you don't get it yet then you never will.

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    1. Geeez yeah that is ancient news. Media is worthless, I guess that's what they get paid for ;)

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  27. I had a little cash and bought GPL and HL here to add to positions. Days like today I buy and then just logout of my account. I do not want to see that big red number on my screen! Good Luck to all!

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  28. Been watching these stocks for about 5 yrs.now and have never seen anything close to this. Even those with positive eps getting trounced.

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  29. Plus US$ is down and silver only off $.01. Looks like they are teaching us a lesson in control so we'll get used to it...

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  30. And yet the SPY marches relentlessly on, with no volume to boot. Blarggghhh! :)

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  31. Just as an aside, went high-end shopping this week-end (bought nothing) and the prices are absolutely astounding...I mean flat out ridiculous. Some things that were around $100 3-4 yrs. ago are now $400 and more!

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  32. No way in hell am I going to even touch these miners and then ride them to zero! I was burned once, and that's enough for me. For those staying in the trade, best of luck, I'm just glad I stopped the bleeding last year and have zero regrets. These miners will wipe you out if you're not careful.

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    1. Is that what you said in october of 08 bud?

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    2. BTW Bud....at least I got you on record on the Miner trade. I didn't want to hear you came in at a low and bot....ehhhehe

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  33. This is well coordinated attack on miners. Does Goldman have a mole reading this blog? :) Check out the volumes.

    Hecla Mining Co. (HL)
    4.00 Down 0.64(13.79%) 3:32PM EST - Nasdaq Real Time Price
    Volume: 14,155,650
    Avg Vol (3m): 3,428,980

    Golden Minerals Company (AUMN)
    2.4101 Down 0.3399(12.36%) 3:30PM EST - Nasdaq Real Time Price
    Volume: 731,497
    Avg Vol (3m): 375,982

    Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)
    15.52 Down 0.72(4.43%) 3:35PM EST - Nasdaq Real Time Price

    Paramount Gold and Silver Corp. (PZG)
    1.9510 Down 0.1090(5.29%) 3:35PM EST - Nasdaq Real Time Price
    Volume: 889,119
    Avg Vol (3m): 599,382

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    1. no.....they're trying to shake out the trade before they reverse it.....if ya got cash then here is where you enter

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  34. MUX is a damn steal here. Sheesh! Wish I had dry powder.

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    1. my only regret.....remember Joe pounding the table over two years ago they would destroy the trade and to wait for CHEAP buys....he was right. I didn't trust them and made the mistake of not keeping some cash. I have cash but by the time I get it in Schwab.....we will see.

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    2. I'm the same way. Never thought we'd get this low.

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  35. (I can't seem to reply directly to comments, so I'm just posting on the thread)

    Kli, if you believe that a repeat of '08 is coming, then clearly, there are some bargains to be had at these levels, with incredible upside potential. Personally, I don't see it, I think there are better places in this market to make money.

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    1. bud, obviously you took a personal beating when you sold last year. I don't blame you but just remember...IF you are going to trade paper and that is what you say you are doing by buying equities.....then your logic at these levels of miners......ESPECIALLY the miners that have solid earnings and revenue does not make sense but then you are entitled to your opinions on this trade and gl

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  36. Its funny the 341 on the HUI is the 61.8 retracement level from the high of 650. There is so much pain today! The bottom is definitely coming soon!

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    1. Rudy this is easy for me to say since I am fully vested already but this absolutely looks like a bottom today latest tomorrow......this is what bottoms look like......time will be the judge

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  37. Kli, the problem is separating the good from the bad. You said it yourself, you believe some will be 10-baggers, others will go to zero. I honestly don't know which is which, that's why I'm staying away. If someone put a gun to my head and made me pick one, I'd probably go with SLW, and maybe AUY, but that's about it.

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    1. good point bud.....thats why one needs to stay out of the paper unless they can absorb the pain. This trade is much bigger than just the market. There will be fortunes made in the right miners for those that hold. I've already had one go belly up Great Basin.....there may be others...There will be miners taken over by governments to keep the PMs from leaving.....

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  38. we've had one helluva day but I think this makes the most sense and just sums up what you've been saying all along Kli...from Eric Sprott: http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1362427467.phpAlso, Joe is the best trader when it comes to these things...my philosophy was just as yours, never knowing when there may be a Black Swan, etc. But he has been absolutely right. GL everyone...will be away for a few days, probably won't even know what's goind on and that may be for the best...

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  39. Rudi, thanks for the fib number...I asked about that w/the physical the other day but knowing the HUI is more helpful.

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  40. Did anyone reading this blog cash out today?

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    1. Good question and I think that is their problem Jay they CANT shake enough shares loose. No one left in this trade wants to puke up their shares....at least most do not..so they are after the leveraged Hedges .....they may get cheaper but today was nice to see if you're hoping for a bottom

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    2. still holding, I am riding the elevator down. I am hoping today the selling hit the exhaustion point, where there are no more sellers. two huge flushes within a week. I hope kli is right, and a reversal takes place. best of luck everyone.

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  41. Lemming Trading
    Bonds are managed to stay under 2% on the 10 year
    Equities are the recipients of the overflow and it's pure momentum and speculation trading, with the couple of black balled issues like PM.
    Housing needs the sub 2% on the 10 year
    Central Bank buys on the PM dips, form what I have seen in the US lately, people wouldn't buy physical if it was 1/2 the price.
    China will play the currency war if Japan continues, as exporting becomes the last resort as housing construction meets a brick wall. Imagine a wave of subsidized Chinese exports and crashing unemployment globally.

    And Yes odd about the ammo and armored vehicles for DHS (both have an effective shelf life of between 5-10 years). These are lethal options both offensively and defensively (IEDs have not been used as protest mechanism domestically) even for a regional insurrection . Normally you would be ordering up more water canons, tear gas, stun grenades and rubber bullets for expected civil unrest.

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    1. I think they are ADVERTISING this for intimidation purposes (psyop). Of course you do have gunowners and sheriff's departments beginning to take public positions against the gun confiscation so perhaps they do expect a home soil shooting war. One thing is certain....they are preparing for big problems at home

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    2. You think? Maybe so and I hope so because that gear is not just for crowd control......

      However there's quite a large number of folks none to pleased with their current policies on the 2nd Amendment and in addition to the above you mentioned there are a number of resellers and manufactures in the Gun/Ammo trade refusing sales to LE's in States that restrict the general population PLUS a number of States are passing legislation to protect the general population of those States from any Federal dictates and or confiscation schemes......

      This is getting very interesting.

      btw: Rudy they're watching you.....

      http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-04/drones-take-manhattan

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    3. You are exactly right on the 10 year. As long as that's below 2% I can't see the market falling much. It keeps flirting with breaking it but never for long.

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  42. http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/3/4_James_Turk_-_The_Single_Most_Important_Chart_For_All_Of_2013.html

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  43. http://www.silverdoctors.com/final-hard-shakedown-of-gold-silver-in-progress-as-banksters-prepare-to-go-massively-long/

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  44. Premiums are LARGE in Mux... you could sell Jan 2014 Covered calls at $2.50 for around 20% instantly. Then tag on an extra 5-10% roughly depending on where you enter MUX. Downside is if the miners ever do take off you will leave some on the table but 25-30% is nothing to sneeze at ;)

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  45. Let's just say I had some dry powder and wanted to nibble on a few miners. Which do you guys like best? SSRI, PPP, HL, AUMN, PAAS, SLW, MUX...any of those names strike a cord? I prefer the type of PM exposure I can hold in my hand, dig a hole in my yard, bury it, then watch over it with the scope on my rifle lol. But I do have some funds in a trading acct that are earning me 0.1% interest.

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  46. Bad news is my positions in miners makes me feel stupid beyond belief: how could I do this?!? The selling is absurd! Just when I think I can’t stand it any more ....they go down again, like today. The good news is that this is EXACTLY how I felt in late October 2008. Boy were the next several months sweet! Good luck everyone.

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