Wednesday, March 6, 2013

MARIONETTES

We're all dancing on strings. The confluence of emotions such as fear, greed, and anger provide the perfect recipe for the precious metals trade. You may view this trade from your perspective, but remember the trade is comprised of much larger entities than you. Also there is a big difference between the precious metal's bullion trade and the precious metal's equities trade. Unfortunately we do not have a crystal ball to look at the players on our side and on THEIR side, but THEY do. They can see every move you make in this trade....and WORSE they can predict your move and the other players moves....at least from a "Macro sense". And just in case they trip and make a miscalculation they have the tools at their disposal to "correct" course. Much of this is from hundreds of years of human behavioral studies refined and perfected and mathematically applied to the market. It may sound far fetched to some of you that believe there are independent forces that still comprise the market and I understand your hesitance to absorb this....but that IS the game. I have seen these forces in play as many of you have. I have experienced all of these emotions myself. I have been awakened early in the morning by knocks at my door asking me for money to cover a margin call after a position was lock limit down two days in a row. I have awakened to learn my own NON-leveraged positions moved 6 figures against me overnight. I have awakened to learn more than once that I have lost 6 figures because a biotech did not receive approval. Stubborn cannot be your emotion then....you MUST cut your massive losses and move on.

I am not saying that you will lose everytime, but unless you try to understand the game then you will ALWAYS lose in the long run. I was once asked by an elite market participant what the purpose of the stock market was. I knew he was testing me rhetorically but I was surprised by his blunt answer when I asked him the answer.....he replied matter of factly"to take your money". The purpose of the entire market was designed to suck capital from its participants by the insiders. Instead of giving an erudite, complex dissertation on free markets, it was just that simple....a casino. He then went on to explain the nature of human behavior and the interactions of the herd mentality and the use of emotions to drive the herd over the cliff. It was all calculated to appear random, but it was anything BUT random. It was predicted, measured, then executed with efficiency and extreme prejudice if necessary. If it meant taking out a big Hedge Fund then it was done. If it meant destroying an opposing group of Hedge Funds then it was done. Retail traders were the easiest. Emotions of fear or greed could be marshaled through some well placed main stream media stories with the usual cacophony of accompanying pundits to drive home the suckers. Even large trading houses could be played by the same emotions and tactics. If necessary they could even be destroyed. After all, you can only have so many alpha males in the jungle.

That takes me to our current state of the game or more specifically to my focus on the precious metal trade. I noticed the increasing emergence of two emotions recently with this last market takedown......FEAR and ANGER. I am not immune to these emotions but I have not personally experienced much of these over this nasty takedown. One reason is because I prepared myself for it. I have written numerous times this trade was still crowded and they DONT want you in it. I cannot predict the short and intermediate direction in this trade because of its COMPLETE manipulation by the Fed....ultimately I felt my research and understanding of the market could withstand their assault on my position if I was caught in a large position. Nothing is guaranteed but I believe that good miners will become great miners as gold and silver continues its bull run. Can this all go wrong? YES YES YES....you are in a casino and you DONT have to play. In fact you should not play if you can not afford to lose. Anger, fear, greed, are emotions that must be CONTROLLED. NOT entirely eliminated but controlled and understood. Remember NOT eliminated. They can be used to your advantage. I Stubbornly held on to a large position of PPP on its last run from 2.50 to 8 dollars. My GREED existed but was held in check and I exited most of my position at an average over 7 dollars. I am not trading most of my miners whenever this next run comes unless they reach extreme overbot conditions on the daily or weekly. Watch how devious the volatility and moves are. It should be just as diabolical as the last year has been.

There is no shame in getting out of these trades and I fully expect many of you to exit. That's the game. We are in a collapse and I wish that it could be sugar coated for you and sprinkled with pixie dust. If you can't see what's coming after watching Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland, Cyprus etc. then you definitely need to get out of this market fast.


"I believe that uncontrolled basic emotions are the true and deadly enemy of the speculator;
that hope, fear, and greed are always present, sitting on the edge of the psyche, waiting on
the sidelines, waiting to jump into the action, plow into the game."  Jesse Livermore


These were big reversal candles today and many had volume. Should be a nice move ahead but don't expect  it to be easy for you. gl












85 comments:

  1. Excellent post Kli! Nice to know I'm not the only one that has blown up an account or two ;)

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  2. Red.....Joe said your hunch was right on MUX ambush

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    Replies
    1. Ream, Release, Repeat

      Eventually those aggressively shorting MUX will give up or be broke. Only works smaller issues where vultures are circling and there is limited inflow of printing presses. Plus you have to be glued to your seat watching your Level II/III screen.

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  3. listen to this podcast from Embry....especially the last two minutes...sound familiar??

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/3/7_John_Embry.html

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  4. http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/KWN_DailyWeb.html

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  5. DCTH could get to 360sma at 2.60 and change...great ride since 1.20's

    getting close to FDA decision...if decision is go it will go much higher..

    momo is really picking up now...

    ASTM-Still in it, new ceo...will sit on tight stop for a while..

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  6. Got a $70 order in for 2920 silver binary. Lets see if they hit it... Risk $70 to win $1000. I like that bet :)

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    1. It hit! Let's see how it goes :)

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    2. P.S. My bad luck on option trades since my SLV win continued. I sold the NFLX puts yesterday at a 50% loss, Today would've been even. Sheesh! I'm sticking with binaries.

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    3. I saw that nflx move today and wondered if you were still in

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    4. Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)
      -NasdaqGS

      178.63 Down 4.31(2.36%) 11:34AM EST - Nasdaq Real Time Price

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    5. Break of 175 and that thing is headed to 160 at least I'd imagine.

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  7. http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2013/03/greece-hire-blackwater-mercenaries-to.html

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    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  8. Great Panther Silver Ltd (GPL)
    1.3099 Up 0.1199(10.08%) 11:37AM EST - Nasdaq Real Time Price

    From $1.05 to $1.30 in 2 days. Very heavy volume once again:

    Volume: 1,117,250
    Avg Vol (3m): 581,600

    Short squeeze of monster proportions.


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  9. KLI: I hope this was just a play on words :

    "I have been awakened early in the morning by knocks at my door asking me for money to cover a margin call after a position was lock limit down two days in a row."

    There aren't really brokers that go knocking on doors are there?

    I'm trying to picture the scene. "Come on out Mr. KLI, we know you're in there. Cover these damn Bank of America shorts or we'll own this house in a couple months!"

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    1. NO NO.....retail investors playing futures contracts that were caught lock limit down back in 86 on wheat futures....they didn't understand their risks on contracts that only costs them 1200/contract......they didn't know it was limitless...the individual I was talking of lost 26K on just two contracts in two days.....I bailed him out...only because he was a very good friend AND I felt I would get paid back

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    2. could have my year wrong but it was in late 80s

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    3. Ahhh, thanks for clearing that up. I was in a state of confusion.

      Nice of you to bail out a friend. I loaned a good buddy $800 one time. Took him 3 years to pay it back. Never doing that again.

      26K in 2 days? Was he crying or suicidal?

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    4. Loan a friend money and lose a friend (this was different)

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  10. http://rense.com/general82/psy.htm

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  11. looks like they're painting the tape red on PMs before tomorrow....it would be just like them to have a monster gap up tomorrow....I don't see them doing that on the gold price yet but the miners could be a gap and go with a green PM day. 1620 is the number on gold they will destroy when they take it out.

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  12. ZLCS having a decent day at above average volume. But, this has hit 0.70 an bunch of times only to fall back.

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  13. Someone is accumulating GPL at a rapid pace.

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  14. Closed out flat on my binaries, stupid eod runup. :)

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  15. Anytime you think you've had a bad day on the market...

    Read about this guy...

    $6.3 billion loss

    http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/11/meet-the-most-indebted-man-in-the-world/264413/

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    Replies
    1. Yikes hahaha... if I were him would never work again and sign up for as many social programs as I could ;)

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  16. Going out on a limb and saying the market craters tomorrow... no pomo, rejected at resistance. And lots of open interest for options on the strikes below.

    I sold 10 1521 binaries for 50 bucks so I'm talking my book ;) Basically be prepared for the Dow to be up 300 tomorrow :)

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    1. This is what my gut is telling me too.

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    2. your gut may be telling you two that you're about to have a belly ache.....but Hubz it is ridiculous how bullish the sentiment is....so they are going to have to bring in some more shorts soon......gl

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  17. I think there's something seriously wrong with me. After thinking about this for the past couple of days, I have decided to put some of my spare cash to use by getting back in the miner trade. I know, this is a complete 180 from what I've been saying the past few weeks since I started posting, but I'm fully prepared to risk a specific amount, and if it goes to zero, I can live with it.

    So, on that note, what heck do I do? I'm not going to touch SSRI or EXK, the two miners by whom I got burned very badly. From a risk/reward perspective, where would you put your cash if you were starting from zero? I could use some names, and then do my own DD before making a decision.

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    1. bud....you have read this enough to know that YOU have to pick your own poison and do your own due diligence .....If I told you there was a stock trading around 2 and change and had a market cap of 90 million with 70 million of CASH and almost no debt with revenue of over 100 million.....with a forward PE of 4 what would you do.....this is just one miner I own and there are even more in my portfolio like this......some will be broke, but some will be 5 even 20 baggers......do your own DD on RIC or PPP or MUX or AUMN look at the owners, CEO, insider buys....you don't have the temperament for this game because they are going to make this MISERABLE for you. SSRI BTW is a big holding of mine.....inherently this trade is meant to be devastating for retail and anyone leveraged so gl to you

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    2. Joe just sent me this on MUX which he has in play .....again do your own DD

      http://www.mcewenmining.com/files/doc_presentations/20130300_pdac.pdf

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  18. Here you go Bud.

    http://blog.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/music-for-gold-miners-chart-9324

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  19. “In the beginning of a change, the Patriot is a scarce man, Brave, Hated, and Scorned. When his cause succeeds however,the timid join him, For then it costs nothing to be a Patriot.” Mark Twain

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    1. I am referring to the scarcity of public outcry on Drones being used on Americans on our own soil.

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    2. Actually for those paying attention the old fashioned "Mr. Smith goes to Washington" event was a refreshing lesson on how things of this nature should be debated, courageous on his part and successful in that a clear answer was given,reluctantly but it was given. However the real point of it all "Why did we need an answer to a question that should be obvious to one and all and is testament how things got to this point in the first place.....

      What is also very telling is from whom all the criticism is coming from.....

      What was it Norm Chomsky saying again??????

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  20. GET ready for some serious volatility tomorrow.....Not trading tomorrow and will watch the banksters play

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  21. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  22. This drone issue is just driving me crazy. I can't believe that our elected official feel they have a right to kill a US citizen on US soil. Kli and I have had our differences but this one is we I am sure are on complete aggreement IT IS WRONG. I say throw the SOB's out that feel its ok to drop a hellfire missile on someones house. I even have a problem with it in other countries if they are US citizens. Not so much for non US citizens, but then there is the problem of colateral damage, which once again BIG issue. Drones flying over the US should be banned. We are becoming or have become what my father and others fought against a country where you have two groups the have and the have nots. The have nots have no rights and the haves can do anything they please and not get sent to jail.

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    1. jeffrey.......this is the issue.....the decision has ALREADY been made....the posturing of Paul means little unless the citizens rise up and they will not. The game goes like this.......Obama is given his instructions and the senators Rep AND dems on how to support this. Just look at McCAin and Graham......IMMEDIATELY out on the floor castigating Pauls fillibuster.....You really don't believe they took their orders to do that from Obama do you? UNDERSTAND the game THEN you can make better decisions on how to RESPOND. The VERY top are an elite group of bankers that are trillionaires and you have NEVER heard of most of their names

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  23. Now lets talk about silver. To all, how do you feel about junk silver. I have bought the junk 90% coins along with eagles and canadian silver. I am trying to buy a varity of coinage. Thoughts on doing that?

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    1. tremendous advantages with junk silver. They will serve as medium of exchange in a moderately bad scenario......in a severely apocalyptic breakdown then of course its food and bullets

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    2. When you're super paranoid it's great knowing you're getting the real thing. I paid huge over spot at the local coin shop the other day for 90%. I've seen some articles on shortages of this after the dip below $30 and it wasn't much higher than apmex. Brother John F had an article last year about how very little of the 90% even exists anymore.

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  24. Dont have the food but have the land to grow the food and hunt. Have lots of bullets.

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  25. My mid March timeline for the take off still remains intact...hehehehee......this move may put the newbee PM investors right back on the sidelines and shake out some more leaves that jumped on. Case in point....Bud will you be buying today? and I am NOT giving you a hard time....are you buying today

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  26. Trying to reply but not sure why it won't let me. The thing is there is no reponse to the drone issue we (non elite) are virtually powerless. All politicians are whores the vote the way the elite want period while making it look like it is for the good of the people and country. I am not sure what to make of Paul if he truly is a Patriot of something else. I am glad he did what he did and we need more of that for one reason. A senate in gridlock can't pass any laws. But then we have to worry about executive orders, which once again powerless. This country is doomed, and I know it and feel sorry for my kids because there is nothing I can do about it.

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    1. Paul is well intentioned but unlike his father he is weak......he is not a leader and he will fail. If he wanted to filibuster then he should have stayed on his feet until he dropped.....He could have gone on for another 24 hours and it would have garnered TREMENDOUS attention and respect. Instead its just a little more than a stunt. You are probably right in your assessment Mr. Rose. We might have had more opportunity 12 years ago but we cheered two wars and bought into the 9/11 straw man to protect us from the boogey man we sat silent while the patriot act was implemented and we began torturing and detaining people without charges or trial. It will all come back on our shores as the drone issue CLEARLY demonstrates. Make NO MISTAKE we will be detained without trials or charges and we WILL be tortured. That is how nature works DOESNT it Red and JOE?

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    2. Life is fleeting, live every moment.

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  27. PAL looks interesting for a move up to 1.80. MACD and Slow stoc are getting ready to cross. along with making a Higher low and breaking the lower low pattern

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  28. It all looks rather "controlled".......lets watch the metal price today

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  29. Kli you were right, the volatility is just crazy today! Gold Down $16 now up! Silver same thing! They do not make it easy do they!

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    1. Rudy...as mentioned many times they do NOT WANT US in this trade. and frankly they have been very effective with this cyclical bear move. Joe and Red both expected this and I had prepared myself mentally for it. MOST did not. Let's see what they do but It should be very diabolical......hehehhehe

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  30. Nice reversal in gold. All of my miners are green. MAYBE the beat down is behind us. Only time will tell. Would like to have a green portfolio by end of the year. Good luck guys!

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  31. Whelp my 50 dollar bet is not going to pan out it looks like haha. Man today is nuts think i'll be on the sidelines.

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  32. silver and gold price being managed perfectly.....loooks like next week

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  33. http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2013/03/oz-great-and-powerful-and-message-from.html

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  34. Just gratuitous,wicked actin on PMs this week VERY characteristic of what I envisioned to get the final weak hands that are clinging onto this trade......hehehhehhe.....sorry but I can only say this is one dastardly group of boyzzz. Mercy mercy mercy.....aint it a peach....hhehhehehehehe.....I wonder if Turd still is spewing his hysterical JPM/Blythe are finished bullshit......maybe someday turd......but not when you think.

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  35. It's about dam time......

    http://stlouis.cbslocal.com/2013/03/07/a-c-l-u-has-concerns-over-military-weapons-used-by-local-police/

    Anyway regardless of the days events its always a good day when your delivery lands :)

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    Replies
    1. oh.....they're just "warming" up for the "big show"

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  36. Somehow I missed this the other day....

    Paul Krugman Declares Personal Bankruptcy

    http://dailycurrant.com/2013/03/06/paul-krugman-declares-personal-bankruptcy/


    This made my day.

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    Replies
    1. THAT HAS TO BE A SPOOF........but if it isn't it is the story I WILL NOT LET DIE.....OMG OMG OMG

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    2. Yeah, it's satire... But really good satire. lol



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  37. Actually that was hillarious!

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  38. Still doing some DD on individual miners, but decided to get my foot in the door by establishing a small core thru GDX. Hoping to make some small purchases of individual names over the coming weeks.

    Kli, what do you know about this Charles Nenner guy? He's predicting Dow 5000, with the correction starting later this year. He's also predicting further downside for gold and gold stocks, and then expects the next big run to begin. In fact, I think he's targeting $1550 for an entry point for gold and believes the paper trade will have to catch-up with physical eventually. His timeframe is the next 2 weeks for that to happen, so consistent with what you've been saying.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/video/dow-dropping-to-5-000-starting-this-year-nenner-dOIoxWrvQdS0sjm5jxjk9Q.html

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=XZiioATR4fc

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  39. he's just another Goldman shill and Joe would say "not to be trusted"......This market is so rigged that I cannot trust anything unless its TANGIBLE......btw GDX is an invention of the ponzi to absorb massive amounts of fiat intended for actual miners.....ie it creates just another way they SHORT the miners indirectly

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    1. Netter believes his technical indicators but he has been way off on some recent famous bear calls during the last few years.....havent we all

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    2. Sorry NENNER

      http://www.zerohedge.com/article/technical-analyst-charles-nenner-predicts-market-may-crash-april

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  40. http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/KWN_DailyWeb.html

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  41. Kli - that Nenner article is old (2010). Nenner has been calling for $2500 gold and 5000 DOW for well over a year, but as I recall these are for the next 2-5 years out. His most interesting recent call near term was APPL $360.

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    1. yes inlet that was the point..I followed Nenner for several years but it got old.....ZH did a review out of 8 calls he got 2 right 6 wrong....I'm sure he's sharp but he was an old Goldman analyst before he went out on his own.......its really hard timing these calls in a rigged market and ultimately the market forces will take over but for now its the printing machine

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  42. Yeah, I do understand how GDX works, I'm hoping that if the miners catch a bid, I can make a profit and then exit, once my real positions are established.

    As for Nenner, I guess what I'm hearing is ignore him for now, although some of his calls seem to align with certain timetables into 2014-2017.

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    Replies
    1. OK bud ya gotta play what you can hold your position in and GDX will probably make you feel a little safer if these pigs take another beatdown......gl

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  43. http://www.policymic.com/articles/28140/nys-drive-act-would-ban-ferraris-and-other-assault-vehicles

    hehehehehe

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  44. I do not know if you all read this site..

    A flurry of signs of crisis, or why we are keeping the March-June 2013 alert..

    http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-72-is-available-Global-systemic-crisis-Second-half-of-2013-The-reality-or-the-anticipation-of-the-Dollar_a13384.html

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    1. this dovetails into that link

      http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-09/fed-injects-record-100-billion-reserves-foreign-banks-operating-us-past-week

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  45. Hello everyone,

    I listened the the Financial Sense radio show. They were actually bullish on Gold. They felt the miners are oversold and some now carry a decent dividend. NEM was mentioned with its 4% dividend yield, commenting that it is similar to that of utility companies.

    At present, they favored the Metal Equity companies over the actual bullion. For those interested in bullion, they suggested buying at 1525-1550, and then holding long term. If it falls further, then buy more and hold for the long term.

    The other point I found interesting is their thoughts on the "business cycle". A few weeks ago, I posted that they felt a business cycle was now just 12 months duration as opposed the the usual 3-5 years. On todays's show, they felt that it could be even shorter, just 6-9 months.

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    Replies
    1. I would love to see them pierce 1520....it would cause some nice stop runs and panic.....just don't expect it

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