Thursday, March 21, 2013

WE STILL SAY NO

cypriot protestors
As police search the home of the IMF chief Lagarde , the peeps form lines at ATM machines not only in Cyprus but across the peripherals of European Banks trying to get their savings before the next door closing. A collapse in CONfidence was always the game changer to be avoided for the fiat masters and whether this was a planned implosion or just a clumsy. arrogant move on the money masters does not really matter. We will never be allowed to know.  Its results are the same. The fuse is now lit and its just a question of time before the next crisis ignites.

The mid-March lift off for PMs appears to be taking place but be prepared for the pattern to shake you hard. The bigger prediction that should matter is the coming of warmer weather and the unrest that comes with it in these countries in crisis. 50% and greater youth unemployment in the peripheral countries of Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Bulgaria etc......leave a lot of potential trouble developing on a Continent in shambles. Where will the next eruption come from? That IS the problem. Putting out fires has been confined to Greece but simultaneous meltdowns across the peripherals now come into play. Banking contagion may accelerate with the precedent set in Cyprus by trying to raid the depositors.

Even if Cyprus ends this crisis by closing a deal with the EU, the damage has been inflicted. IF the solution is to close the banks in question and make the "small" depositors insured "whole", it still leaves CONfidence mortally wounded AND the big money destroyed........Big money all over Europe is exiting and will continue to exit their deposits. Many of them did not get the big money by being stupid. Fool me once shame on you.....Fool me twice....Shame on ME!!

Analogies continue to crop up to the late 70's and early 80's period. I listen to many pundits on CNBS and Bloomberg comparing this situation and its potential resolution to that time period. I am here to tell you there is NO comparison. We had virtually no debt compared to now. We had the preeminent manufacturing country in the world. Our demographics were in much better shape. Our personal debt was miniscule. People saved and had savings to survive for months if they lost their jobs. Severe stagflation marked that period and if we entered that now, we would collapse. There is no room in budgets to withstand it. If we have to raise interest rates to stop stagflation this tiime.....then the entire system collapses with just a couple of percent. Its all mathematics. Its trouble folks. Big trouble. We had the rule of law then. We had a balance between the haves and have nots. We had regulatory bodies that had some restraint on the corporatocracy. But eventually through a carefully orchestrated program, the public was dumbed down by repetitive cliche phrases like trickle down and free market capitalism........the rest is history. Greed and "want" won.
Joe sent these notes he found from Sinclair's conference:
1 – When asked about keeping gold outside the US – he answered almost all his Gold is outside of the US – its in Africa..

2 – Markets revalue ccys on a daily basis & this will continue for the dollar. In his view there will not be a official devaluation, they'll just continue to cheapen quietly as they have over the past decade..

3 – He definitely follows some sort of cycles, and certain numbers are significant (this is out of my wheelhouse but I took note anyway) He believes Gold to 3100-3300 is a minimum & will occur between 2015-2017.. He believes the ccy crisis/end game will all play out by 2020-2021.. At that point gold will have settled in @ 4500 or so & we'll have to move on w/ our life..

4 – He doesn't love the CAD, but if you must hold ccy exposure in your portfolio he'd prefer a resource ccy like the loonie..

5 – He doesn't believe that Silver has monetary characteristics, and therefore wont maintain its price rise, although gold will. .He doesn't believe is Silver monetization

6 – Current financial system is like Sodom & Gamorrah (but less fun) – However, don't extrapolate into perpetuity – Things change/cycles change/ and things will be different in the future –

7 – Ponzi schemes can work! – If they are accepted by the public..

8 – Silver could hit 100 in a speculative frenzy, but he doesn't believe it would stay there.

9 – You wont be able to break the Dow due to the enormous liquidity..Buy pullbacks, it will be going higher… Its overbot & could have a sharp pullback short term, but its a buy.

10 – For the youth – if you want a job in the future, become a geologist, a good one..

11 – He doesn't buy these FDIC insured Gold CDs.. Like any other insurance, you have counterparty risk.. Buy the physical

12 – Doesn't like the Perth Mint – Cost of moving from unallocated to allocated is way too high

13 – Gold Co's in the 1950s were yielding 15-20% – they were utilities.. He believes they should be/will be again..

14 – He's bullish gold stx – hugely undervalued, beaten down – Buy whats cheap, not whats dear..

15 – Central planners actually believe they can pull this off & land this plane.. They believe the economy will recover to bail us out, & they'll simply let the securities they've bot mature… Bernanke is a academic, so he doesn't understand how the real world works.. He believes he's right w/ all of this QE..

16 – Bernanke did save our a$$ after Lehamn.. If he didn't act as he did, we'd all be living in a cave as it would have been a absolute catastrophy.. The error has been to continue it this long

17 – No exit to QE – No end in sight because there is not a true recovery..

18 – Bonds wont fall, yields wont rise because Ben can buy them unlimited & he will..

19 – Someone asked why Sprott doesn't go to the Comex for his 2b in Silver & break the manipulation – Sinclair said he wont do it, because "he's a gentleman" He wont "break the playing board" – there is a ethical code amongst these giant players.. He wont break an exchange, because the entire system would then be against you.. Nobody will do this.. They/We wont get this, we wont get instant satisfaction like that.

20 – End of this crisis will come in 2021 – Move on to something else like education or real estate.. Become a doctor or lawyer, or plumber – develop a trade.

.



33 comments:

  1. Speaking of Government stealing......

    Doesn't part of Obocare pinch those that don't want healthcare to subsidize the system?

    "Beginning in 2014, the federal government will impose new fines on citizens and legal residents who do not obtain government-approved insurance.  Those without insurance will pay a tax that is the greater of a flat fee, or a percentage of family income. The flat fee will be phased in over several years.  In 2014, the penalty will be $95 per adult in an uninsured household, increasing to $325 in 2015, then to $695 in 2016, after which it will increase annually in line with consumer inflation.  For uninsured children, the fine will be half the amount applied to uninsured adults.  If greater, households pay 1 percent of their income in 2014, 2 percent in 2015, and 2.5 percent in 2016 and thereafter in lieu of the flat per person fee.

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  2. Of course this is described as a fine, not a Tax...;D. Nothing that is a tax is a tax anymore. Poor, poor sheeple. According to Jim Sinclair, the winners are the BRICs.

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  3. Saw this link on the ZH comments, worth reading re: Jim Sinclair meeting in NYC: http://www.silverdoctors.com/recap-of-jim-sinclairs-nyc-meeting-you-have-2-years-to-get-out-of-iras-silver-to-see-orgasmic-rally/

    Just in case y'all missed it on the previous thread...

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  4. OT. John Stumph shits his pants.

    So easy they got to him...

    http://salsa.wiredforchange.com/o/6267/p/dia/action/public/?action_KEY=7599

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  5. this link muy bueno.

    http://www.calorganize.org/

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  6. 21 – I don't understand this, but what are these Golden Angels + numbers you see on his blog? There is significance in them & he leaves clues, but I just don't get it.. (can anyone shed light here?)

    22 – If you want to get rid of criminals (banksters) you reduce their profit margin – They'll then go do something else.. I found this interesting, because this is exactly what I've told you the regulators are doing today..

    23 – Retirement Accts – Stop contributing, pay the tax, & cash them out… If you are at a firm that is matching contribution its different because the company has 50% of the risk

    24 – He's not negative on the future, he's optomistic for better days.. You can't stop living your life due to whats going on in the world

    25 – The EUR will outperform the dollar – They have already started austerity while we haven't – They have gold & mark it to mkt..

    26 – There is no inflation because there is no velocity of money.. History has shown that velocity picks up when confidence is lost – this is what you have to look for

    27 – China is a Maoist nation, except they now want wealth

    28 – BRICS are where the opportunity is – they are taking over & their culture is very different to ours (they execute bankers, what do we do?)

    29 – Cycles & Cycle analysis wont take you to prosperity.. They aren't a road map, but he likes them for picking up divergences (i.e. this cycle should be bottoming, but isn't – this is a clue, telling us something) Gov't interference has rendered them useless..

    30 – Alf fields is a legitimate human being who works hard at his craft – he respects him & believes his Gold target will be met, although he disagrees with why that would happen…

    31 – Once we close above 1620, we'll be on our way to 3500.. The lows will be cemented

    32 – There will be a transition from paper to physical, but I don't think its how most people interpret this.. He's not saying the comex will break or go away, he's saying that the ability of the Comex paper traders (who are arbitraging & spreading) to manage price will cease.. We have already been seeing this as paper traders will attacking gold all day @ 1611, but the physical buyers were stepping up @ 1606.. I found this interesting because AM also quoted 1606 as a key physical pivot, so its obvious these men have contacts who buy physical in size & they know where they are bidding..

    32 – Only gold can increase the sovereign assets vs liabilities.. Ratio of a ccy's gold to M3 will be the measure

    33 – Fiat & fractional reserve banking will continue to exist in the new world, but the ccy will take its cue from M3 based on physical

    34 – By flushing Lehman, they ruined their chances/ability to net down all of the derivs.. They could have done a S&L & put them all in a "bad bank" to net them down/wnd them down – but we blew that opportunity

    35 – views the London fix as meaningless – its like libor

    36 – Gold at minimum to 3100-3300, by 2015-2017, then up to 4400 – You should then be selling!

    37 – On miners – they should use their gold to fund their operations; don't dilute shareholders.. He vowed to never issue another share in his company – The float wont go above 100mm (place erupted in applause)

    38 – 1764 was ruthlessly attacked by the sghorts & is now major resistance.. Funds were duped into thinking bail-ins would replace bail-outs – this has now been proven wrong by the Cyprus rejection

    39 – Learn to sell your gold – Don't "hold it for your kids" Rather, when the chart is a rhino, sell a third, when its a fishing line, buy it back.. If it runs away before you get your third back, laugh all the way to the bank

    40 – China doesn't want to be a world reserve ccy – they don't want that responsibility/burden. Rather they want to be the ccy of choice, not by decree.. they'll do this by amassing 15% of reserves in gold .. everyone will then want Yuan

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  7. Good stuff...

    Silver with volume weekly seems to be safe here as it can pierce the bottom volume hole below 27, you could see the next stop volume price wise..I don't believe they can get Silver to 22 by looking at the support volume here..but whom knows...

    http://s21.postimg.org/7xs4cx5xz/silver_32113_weekly_with_volume.jpg

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  8. and as the chill of the Kondratieff Winter closes in on the end of the Supercycle.....the elite turn upon themselves....Rest assured somewhere DSK has a hand in this

    http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/03/21/17405854-french-ex-president-sarkozy-investigated-for-allegedly-swindling-frail-heiress?lite

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  9. Phil Davis wrote today that he doesn't think that the markets will sell off significantly until after the quarter ends.

    Do what does everyone think about selling your gold at $4400? Certainly others are predicting much higher prices. Jim Sinclair is suggesting a much more conservative price.

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    Replies
    1. "Selling" means something different to Sinclair.....he will move into "other" assets at that juncture unless we have a new asset backed currency at that level......So moving out of gold at even 2500 may make sense of you have a K winter with a desired asset that is depressed in price that you can convert into......THAT is definitely a way to play the PM game. They preserve wealth but there are many "investments".....I do not want to get into the phases of gold but I will warn you that trying to "convert" gold in its final phase is usually very difficult.

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  10. End game on the Cyprus game is clearing up IMO they will restructure one bank (Laika) and destroy the large depositors over 100K. I think its a test case and I cannot tell you what the Russians will do without a bone thrown to Putin....could spin it next week as a positive for the market for a day or two so watch for an equity short squeeze with the news. Gold is solidly holding 1600 and miners relative strength speaks volumes

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  11. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-22/troika-hikes-cyprus-bailout-demands-says-conditions-worsened#comment-3362489

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  12. Nice move on arna today honest.

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  13. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RIC&p=M&yr=19&mn=3&dy=0&id=p84619791758&a=251193716&listNum=1

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  14. http://www.joebageant.com/joe/2010/07/waltzing.html

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  15. Last week, Investors Intelligence reported that the percentage of bearish investment advisors has declined to just 18.8%. The last time bearish sentiment was below 20%, at a 4-year market high and a Shiller P/E above 18 (S&P 500 divided by the 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings – the present multiple is 23) was for two weeks in May 2007 with the S&P 500 about 1525. The next instance before that was two weeks in August 1987 (bearish sentiment never dipped much below 27 approaching the 2000 peak except for a reading of 22.6 in April 1998, just before the Asian crisis). The next instance before that was for 3 weeks of a 5-week span in December 1972 and January 1973, which was immediately followed by a 50% market plunge. There are a handful of observations in March-May 1972 at a slightly lower level that were punctuated by a modest market decline before the final advance to the late-1972 peak (that lag is enough to discourage any near-term conclusions in the present instance). The instance before that was in February 1966, which was promptly followed by a bear market decline over the following year. You get the picture.

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    Replies
    1. sooo......basically there are enough suckers now to distribute to so that wash rinse repeat can occur......tell me it aint so.....

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  16. Now the State of Texas wants its gold: http://www.texastribune.org/2013/03/21/perry-some-lawmakers-want-states-gold-back-texas/ Wonder whether they're willing to wait 6 yrs.?

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  17. You beat me to it Sis, hehehehehe......

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-23/texas-wants-its-gold-back-fed

    “If we own it,” Perry said, “I will suggest to you that that’s not someone else’s determination whether we can take possession of it back or not.”
     
    “We don’t want just the certificates. We want our gold. And if you’re the state of Texas, you should be able to get your gold.”

    Looks like Texas has got case of "Loss of CONfidence"......

    Seems ole Rick believes the possession is nine tenths of the law, this ought to be interesting!




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  18. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-23/cyprus-deposit-levy-vote-delayed-will-down-wire-70-deposit-tax-contemplated

    Money, get away
    Get a good job with more pay
    And your O.K.

    Money, it's a gas
    Grab that cash with both hands
    And make a stash

    New car, caviar, four star daydream
    Think I'll buy me a football team

    Money get back
    I'm all right Jack
    Keep your hands off my stack

    Money, it's a hit
    Don't give me that
    Do goody good bullshit

    I'm in the hi-fidelity
    First class traveling set
    And I think I need a Lear jet

    Money, it's a crime
    Share it fairly
    But don't take a slice of my pie

    Money, so they say
    Is the root of all evil
    Today

    But if you ask for a rise
    It's no surprise that they're
    Giving none away,

    Away,Away,Away,Away........

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  19. Things must be getting serious. Now even small animals are being indicted.

    http://www.cnn.com/2013/03/22/us/ohio-punxsutawney-phil-indictment/index.html

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  20. where to store your wealth.
    is it in hard asset as gold... or silver ...or land ..or bonds ..or stocks as dividend paying

    or is it in cash in the banks

    when the through Glass–Steagall Act under the bus things have down hill fast.

    at one time the fdic backed 100,000 now it 250,000.....why was that....I think it is to keep your $$$ in the banks..

    so the question is when do you move to the exit....or do you run...

    paladin

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  21. Cyprus has me in my upright seat.

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    Replies
    1. it has the Cypriots and big money Russians bent over their seats

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  22. I will tell you all.

    my last buy in silver and gold.

    silver at 5.00
    gold at 800.00

    they were big buy in

    I am OK with the buy,s

    BUTT.......BUTT.....BUTT

    my cash accounts have grown

    I do not want to hit the FDIC cut off 250,000

    so what am I saying here....I do not trust the banks.

    paladin

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    Replies
    1. It is highly unlikely if bank closings resume that the FDIC will be backing accounts to any degree....at the very BEST you can expect long delays in getting whatever money you have in the banks. IF I have 250K in cash then I would put some into tangible assets....Platinum/generators/farmland/solar panels/ well/ foodstorage/ garden/greenhouse/ copper tubing/ water purification system/nickels/pennies/

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    2. You forgot toilet paper and clean underwear. It will be in short supply when the SHTF. Chords of wood, a Big Green Egg and a Rocket Stove.

      Get small denomination bills, 2-3 thousand until you feel comfortable. "Cash Accounts" can be offline when you need them.

      Lots of popcorn and butter and comfy seat to watch the show.

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  23. canada

    The Government proposes to
    implement a ―bail-in‖ regime forsystemically important banks. This regime will be designed to ensure that,in the unlikely event that a systemically important bank depletes itscapital, the bank can be recapitalized and returned to viability through the very rapid conversion of certain bank liabilities into regulatory capital. This will reduce risks for taxpayers. The Government will consultstakeholders on how best to implement a bail-in regime in Canada.Implementation timelines will allow for a smooth transition for affectedinstitutions, investors and other market participants.

    page 144


    http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/03/21/federal-budget-2013-full-text/

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  24. I think I will run for the exit.


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  25. Gold/silver gapped up but the banksters were ready and they immediately fell back. Now ZH reporting that Dutch abn will halt gold delivery. Slowly & carefully accumulating cash in hand as well as more staples.

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  26. What is bitcoin backed by? Who started it? Is there counterparty risk? TIA to all who respond.

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    Replies
    1. stay away from it......too easy of a target for the bankers

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