Sunday, April 21, 2013

THIS IS WHERE IT STARTS TO GET WEIRD

Anyone getting the feeling its not a fair fight
Remember a couple of months ago when I warned that things were going to get very volatile with wide price swings to rip you out of the trade. Well we are there in spades. For whatever reason the game is taking on a very ugly turn here and for those of you that believe this is just a normal sequence of events developing, I suggest you check with your Local Coin Shop. These are anything BUT normal times. Many dealers have been hit by a deluge of buying as Precious metals buyers step into the blue light special for those bargain prices they missed on the run up to 1900 level over a year ago. Apparently the Cabal is in some type of pickle that forces them to try and take out the leveraged players with the mother of all stop runs in an effort to either save their COMEX or to try and crush the psychology of the metals buyers once and for all. We had a similar beatdown in the late 70s but the psychology and fundamental story for precious metals was not even close to the bullish fundamentals for gold and silver at this juncture. 

I guess they believe their 85 billion/month bond buying is just going unnoticed by the average sheeple. Maybe the sheeple didn't get that memo because the deep discount on gold and silver brought in wave after wave of physical buyers....not to mention the sovereign buyers. Even some of the miners are finding some buyers but the paper game there remains in the toilet for now until proven otherwise. Right now NO ONE is predicting a move up in Gold OR that a bottom has been reached. Some are predicting sub 1000. You can only hope.

Weird sums up this past week. Multiple simultaneous operations appear obvious at the Boston Marathon with arrests of a "suspect" cancelled for the ultimate arrest of one of the surviving "pair of suspects". Two kids that were model citizens yet somehow had been under FBI surveillance for two years. Pictures of military and paramilitary everywhere. Bomb dogs. Public announcements BEFORE and AFTER that it was a drill. Poison letters sent immediately to Congressmen and the President. Internet restrictive law passed in the middle of the diversion. MSM falling in lockstep with the rollout of martial law never questioning its need. If you didn't follow the inconsistencies in this you owe it to yourself to check it out on Inforwars site. 

Just amazing as one of my emails said.......two guys could shut down an entire large city. Its as though the PTB seemed to be ready for this all along. Well after Boston,  we are going to have this rolled out over the entire country before its over with so get used to it. It went off without a hitch in Boston so that box is checked now.





"Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety." - Ben Franklin
 


Nothing to see here now move along peeps. gl




63 comments:

  1. Found it utterly amazing that 10,000 law enforcement were hunting one 19-yr.-old and the crowd cheered them on...bye,bye liberty; hello tyranny. There is no way anyone in his/her right mind will fight this incredible display of sheer POWER. This so reminds me of Les Miserables. Napolean was worse than the royalty b/c he sent them all to die in wars. That didn't prevent him from having many loyal followers.

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  2. whoaaa. Your post is right on Kli. Silver in Asia opens +1.3% and gold not far behind...they won't let us go long or short just as you predicted.

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  3. http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/4/21_Sinclair__Physical_Gold_Buyers_Will_Now_Crush_Central_Planners.html

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  4. http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/04/20/arizona-set-to-ok-gold-silver-currency/2100039/

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  5. Pay attention to overseas. It is like fashion. Human nature is global. What you see there, eventually makes its way everywhere. Revolution in Greece is brewing. There has been a collapse in the rule of law on a broad basis. So while Brussels likes to play with the numbers to pretend that Southern Europe is richer than the North and academics create bogus studies to justify austerity, the prospects of seizing assets in Southern Europe to pay for banks that lost on GOVERNMENT DEBT is not a plausible action!!! Not only has Brussels forgotten the promises of all the benefits of creating the Euro and there would NEVER be any defaults, nothing but barter, murder, suicide, disease are all soaring under Greek austerity. It was not a fair trade sovereignty for the Euro, pestilence, disease, chaos, and loss of sovereignty.

    This is real face of DEFLATION. It is far worse than INFLATION. There you pay when you get off the ride. Under DEFLATION you pay before the ride is over. Just how much pain and suffering is enough before everything just pops? Is a Mad Max outcome even possible?

    http://www.scmp.com/news/world/article/1218517/murder-suicide-disease-surges-under-greek-austerity

    In Argentina, there was over a million protesting in the city alone. The seizure of all pensions there is what has give Europe and Obama hope for a new ides.

    http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/129117/mayor-macri-‘we’re-not-coup-mongers’

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    1. above is from Martin Armstrong site

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  6. I don't care how they spin it, the fact that individuals are taking lots of fiat out of the banking system to buy gold/silver at any price is throwing a wrench into their game plan.

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  7. Worth a look for an alternative viewpoint on current events....

    http://www.jimstonefreelance.com/

    Re: Benjamin Franklin's prophetic quote..... After watching the peeps reaction in Boston to the undecleared defacto Marshall Law, I think we all need to take heed of those words, because we as a Society are far too willing to give up everything to the State for what I'm not sure but whatever it is, it will not be nor will it have the outcome most peeps desire........

    What a Wounderful World!

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  8. CAT misses badly top and bottom.... this is what a "recovery" looks like? this is what going over a cliff looks like and this is why there will be NO cessation of the printing presses. The Central bankers will keep "jawboning" that they have a plan to stop printing soon to keep the market from hyperinflating but ANYtime they seriously pull back on the printing presses like they "supposedly" did after QE1 and2 will result in a major market correction....so if you see that, pull the pin and short equities. Just remember if they are "saying" they're stopping QE that does not mean they are and they can ramp the market instead.....THAT is why I have seldom tried to short this market for the past 3 years....its rigged......

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  9. IF this is the floor in gold.....then expect a new range to be established for several months with periods of high volatility mixed with low volatility to crush the leverage players out of the big ride up.......physical accumulation is the Achilles heal for the cabal....and bargain basement prices are bringing out the buyers.....The takedown definitely hurt the leverage players which was always one of their intentions.....the real gold buyers are physical buyers and they are feasting on the price move. The cartel will NOT allow that to go on very long at all. Question is do they rip it down one more time to a new and "very scary" low.....hehehhehehehe....dunno....maybe.

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  10. "official denial" so you know what's next
    http://news.yahoo.com/slovenia-insists-not-next-cyprus-063544054.html

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  11. FWIW, itms says 1297 will be bottom...will keep you updated as they are always changing their targets. Julian Phillips today saying there will be another confiscation. A crystal ball would be helpful here.

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    1. No crystal ball so just accumulate physical.....may be the bottom already......hold some fiat back for a hard takedown....but DONT count on it...plus remember.....YOU MAY NOT GET IT ANYWHERE NEAR the level due to premiums

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  12. Kli... something I've been wondering. Why have they obliterated miners? I know they've whacked metals too but as we all too well know miners are have been decimated. Even today gold and silver up, miners are down. Makes me think they want us even less in that trade than they do physical. But I would think that's more vulnerable?

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  13. the pat answer is that we are in a period of HIGH costs of mining making it less profitable...this is what I was told also in NYC last year by a Hedgee.....The real reason could be more simplistic....and that is to get as many hegdees and retail out of the shares before they take it up.....shaking traders (weak leafs) in sectors that have massive bullish potential is an age old game and should come as no surprise....conspiracy buffs also view the miners as strategically important and destroying their ability to produce our reserves in the ground and "ship them east" also is a possible issue.........for now I'll stick with the age old reason

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  14. I finally got the the LCS.
    They had some 1 ounce Gold Eagles and Gold Maple Leaves available.
    No Silver Eagles--all sold out. The guy said when they do come in, expect the price to be 9 dollars over spot. As we all know here, he said that there is a big disconnect between the paper & physical price.

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  15. Apmex about $5 over spot even now...no eagles, but mercury/roosevelt dimes & whatever they do have.

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  16. http://www.brotherjohnf.com/archives/159709

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  17. No wonder they had to bring it down! Sales of physical making 'em nervous.

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  18. http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/4/22_Maguire_-_Elaborates_On_The_LBMA_Default_%26_Ensuing_Panic.html

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  19. MOST illuminating

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-22/guest-post-boston-marathon-attacks-chechnya-and-oil-hidden-us-connection

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  20. from Joe The fact that you do not see a break out in miners eventhough Gold itself is up today suggests that the correction in Gold itself is not done yet and more downward action in Gold itself is ahead possibly to $1000 an ounce. Excellent indicator of this was at 2008 market crash when Gold dropped from Highs of 1040 to 660 in November of 2008 which is the time miners found actual bottom as well and when Gold at the time turned up, miners as well started an excellent upward move while rest of the market kept bleeding till March of 2009. Miners at this juncture are good indicators of whether Gold itself has found bottom or not and the answer seems to be NO . Take a look at what happened in October/ November of 2008 when Gold itself bottomed at 660, the miners started a huge and not look back rise while the rest of market tanked till March of 2009, that means currently Gold itself has not found the ACTUAL bottom otherwise you would have seen major break out of miners. Miners at this juncture are excellent track of whether Gold itself has bottomed or not.

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    1. That's only for paper gold, which technically could see a print of zero when the COMEX and LBMA fail.

      There is still the issue of $32+ trillion in offshore wealth playing musical chairs looking for some diversity in their virtual portfolio. Also legit wealth in countries that are aggressively devaluing like Japan or confiscating like Cyprus and Argentina. And time is running out really fast before the fireworks pick up. The premium on large bags of junk silver coins is still very high.

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  21. scroll to 240 and listen to rest of show

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pjel4Nzz4eo

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  22. Thanks Joe and now GS telling their clients to get out of shorts temporarily. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-its-time-to-close-out-those-gold-shorts-2013-04-23

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  23. I'm confused by Joe. Because miners don't bounce with gold then gold has 40% downside? What happened to his HUI 250 target and $1.50 on MUX? The 2008 bottom was from margin calls and was a compressed brutal bear market. 2000 bottom was different because bear market was different. I agree that miner should participate better than they have, but what element of their non participation is accumulation by smart money? If that is in fact going on then would not the bottom look different than others especially 2008?

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    1. I'm sure he will answer and when he does I'll post it....this is my answer....The 2008 bottom was manufactured also AND margin calls indeed provided the fuel and YES smart money is accumulating now and THEN.......shorts WILL cover and they probably already know the bottom and when.......very succinctly, the LBMA and COMEX are settling in cash now the LBMA cannot provide physical for some VERY large orders....therefore they are already defaulting...the takedown may very well be to provide a VERY cheap cash settlement for a massive amount of the contracts sitting for delivery which is a de facto default that will be public....that will be the bottom of the paper prices if it plays out....they of course could just make this a protracted trading range killing field in this current range....but if they crank it down in the next two weeks then the first scenario will play out....and THAT is the scenario I want...abeit bloody

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  24. Kli and others--If the police come into your home & force you out with your hands up w/out a search warrant do you have any redress in the courts?

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    1. NO........courts are completely crushed under the Public Safety/Patriotic police support spin......Judges/prosecutors completely owned.......NO judge or prosecutor would take on their own jackboots....did you see how militarized all of the police were......its been going on now for over ten years in earnest.....they do not need to declare martial law.....its already in place

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    2. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=t3A_ULGlUtw#!

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  25. Thanks for your thoughts, always very interesting. I think the growing tension between the comex price of gold and the draining investories is the most interesting "story" in the markets right now. I think that the resolution is probably by this summer and will also mark the top of the S&P and junk bonds. Like you I think the move down in POG is setting the table for a cash settlement on COMEX but I suspect that it will play out sooner than later.

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    1. Agree that it will play out very soon...BUT if they want to prolong this until fall then they can just chop shop it in this range till then and then take it to 1000 or even a little lower....IF the COMEX publicly defaults under cover of a "national emergency" then actual bullion will be unobtainable unless the paper price is over 2K

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    2. I am not sure that comex default would be all that noticed by public. Didn't the Hunts cause a default on silver back in the day? Cash payments would not involve most of the public and probably come and go largely unoticed. Bigger deal would be peaking S&P for the public. Also I'm not as confident that the outflow of physical gold can be "managed" as well as you do. Interesting at my LCS premiums for silver eagles at 31% while gold eagles at 5.5%

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    3. I do not remember a COMEX default but I do remember a Hunt default...hehehhehee.......Bondguy, as already noted the comex is in a de facto default now as they provide cash settlements or rollover incentives to avoid bullion delivery...also "delivery" is frequently avoided by "delivery" to a "member" bank......when in fact the storage bank is only holding paper.......there are a myriad of tricks in this game for them...eventually some type of "public" event will mark a complete default

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    4. ask and ye shall receive

      http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/4/23_Sinclair_-_Swiss_Bank_Just_Refused_To_Give_My_Friend_His_Gold.html

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  26. I read the above earlier.

    They wouldn't give him his Gold due to "Anti-terrorism and anti-money laundering" concerns.

    You just can't make this stuff up.

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    1. You just can't make this stuff up.

      hehehehehee....I was thinking the EXACT same line before I saw yours doc

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  27. Immred's post again from above

    That's only for paper gold, which technically could see a print of zero when the COMEX and LBMA fail.

    There is still the issue of $32+ trillion in offshore wealth playing musical chairs looking for some diversity in their virtual portfolio. Also legit wealth in countries that are aggressively devaluing like Japan or confiscating like Cyprus and Argentina. And time is running out really fast before the fireworks pick up. The premium on large bags of junk silver coins is still very high.

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    1. THIS IS VERY POSSIBLE AND is how they settle out......with a GREAT BIG FU

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  28. Joe's response to Bondguy

    First of all the $1000 an ounce I mentioned is not written in stone which is why i used the word PROBABLY, it could go down to 1270 or 1100, do not focus on exact number since no one knows except central bankers, Russians, and Chinese. Focus on the point which is the relationship between miners BOTTOM and Gold bottom. I did not say at any juncture of the game miners rise with Gold, the relationship I am focusing on is at the BOTTOM phase since it is in the bottom phase that miners have the best performance and that means when Gold itself has ACTUAL bottom and not temporarily bottom and up for a week from oversold conditions then miners outperform the paper price of Gold itself. 2008 was from margin calls and so is the miners and paper Gold itself, it's margined. Hedge funds for example have to pay 100% margin and leverage if they continue shorting MUX below 1.50. Short hedge funds whom currently are in miners have heavy margins, margins when they short and also in the long side. What the current action in Gold itself and miners show is that the overall market eventhough is not in BEAR market yet, is getting set up for upcoming brutal bear market. Miners and Gold react prior to the START of bear market for all other sectors. With all the money printing by bankers, all they have done is INCREASE the MONEY SUPPLY but they can not control the VELOCITY of Money ( speed in which paper shifts hands by public in economy) and velocity of money is not picking up regardless of how much more they print and that means DEFLATION and not hyper-inflation is coming your way and deuring deflation Gold and Miners way ahead of start of overall bear market start retraction and also that means they recover faster once overall bear market for all sectors get underway. As far as HUI, the 61.8% retracement off of the 2011 highs, the next Fibonacci related support at 283 ( 72.8%),already taken out if we repeat the 2008 experience, expect to see the 78.6% retrace touched at 255 which we did if you look at lows for HUI , 256 hit last week and might test again, leaving only the head & shoulders (H&S) target at 190 after that. Watch 250 level on HUI and if that fails then 190 would be the BEAR markets ULTIMATE BOTTOM. As far as MUX, the pivot point is at 1.45, I will know on Level 4 how much more they are willing to take it before trap is set.

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    1. Does ANYONE want to venture a guess on WHY Deflation OVER Hyperinflation????? Hint its very simple

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    2. velocity? It is needed for hyperinflation.

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    3. no....velocity is needed to escape deflation.........we are still in deflation.....specifically stagflation withing secular deflationary cycle

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    4. I'm confused.. Aren't we saying the same thing? You say we need velocity to escape deflation. OK. I say we need velocity for hyperinflation. OK. You gotta escape deflation to get to hyperinflation. You say to-mat-o, I say to-ma-to, Hehehe

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  29. Dow just flashed crashed over 200pts...... in 2 minutes......recovered to +117

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  30. Does that qualify as a flash crash ( http://www.safehaven.com/article/29369/the-flash-crash-cycle ) 3/23 + 1 month...

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    1. It does if you were one of the thousands with trailing stops that just had their paper pockets picked....hehehehee.....this did a lot of damage but it will be spun as no big deal

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  31. The answer I would give to Kli's question above is: Deflation before Inflation is because of worsening global unemployment and poorer salaries for those that do have jobs. You need money to spend, and without money, there is less spending--thus unable to inflate prices.

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    1. good answer but let me rephrase it.....IF we go on the hypothetical that a few elite trillionaires run the show and ultimately carry sway on choosing how far their Fed and ECB go into the printing and are responsible for boom and busts then which would THEY prefer ...Deflation or Hyperinflation....assuming they have the power to decide

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    2. hehehe.....gotta keep it goin'

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  32. Doc - so all the money printing by the FED is pushing on a string. Without velocity it takes more and more $s to do the same work. Unemployment, poor salaries, increased automation all lead to decreased velocity. Farmers went from over 80% of the work force to under 5% since the 1800s because of equipment doing more. Manufacturing has gone from over 50% to about 17% in the last 100 or so years mostly due to automation - we still manufacture as much as we did 50 years ago.

    We can discuss the reasons for decreased velocity of money, but if a dollar turns over once a week it takes twice as many dollars to get the same bang if that dollars turns over twice a week. It is simple arithmetic something the FED and government don't seem to understand.

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    1. CONfidence is the primary factor they are working on but instead they are losing to FEAR.......fear with loss of CONfidence destroys velocity of money...WHICH is why Cyprus was a shocker to me.....which brings us back to DEFLATION....apparently that is STILL the end game because a full HYPERINFLATION scenario is a de facto debt default....whereas deflation will be only a partial debt default as many entities survive to pay off their debt burden to the "holders" which are the PTB

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  33. http://rt.com/business/russian-cb-billion-support-banks-260/

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  34. Remember with the housing bubble, banks were "forced" or "encouraged" to give mortgages to unqualified borrowers. Various political leaders stated that all Americans deserved the right to buy and live in their own home. So, all sorts of mortgage loans were created,...and disaster eventually followed.

    My concern that something similar will repeat. The banks are now flush with money. If the government encouraged loans before, then they can do it again. If they force or encourage banks to lend again, then the money will enter the system and money velocity will increase. Another bubble is born.

    I think we need to watch for signs whether bank lending is increasing.

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    1. Things are playing out very much like this again. Making me considering actually selling my home as I saw the comps for my neighborhood and was like "Are you kidding me? Someone will pay me that much for my house? Hell I'll take it." I'm considering it... Real Estate inventory is low but it's being done artificially as the foreclosures are just being held from the markets. It's crazy to me, I'm seeing it all repeat again right before my eyes. Neighborhoods being built up all over and new homes being bought up in 2-3 weeks. WHERE IS THIS MONEY COMING FROM? :) Because I know nobody has the 20% for half of these being sold.

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    2. Doc, it's happening already, conduit of foreclosure relief, principle reductions, FHA 580 Fica and settlement money to foreclosure victims (sure)

      the median house went up 28% in Calif. over last year....wages are going down and homes up? The fed has rewarded greed with more of it and have been letting PE and Hedgies form REIT corporations, provide them bulk sales of foreclosures from the agencies for pennies and pay them to hold for 5 years...while reducing tax foot print...it pays to be corrupt....

      the system is being manipulated to enrich the rich...

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    3. Careful Hubz....just make sure you know what to do with your fiat if you sold.....if I could sell I would be prepared to move fiat immediately into another asset that WOULD perform in either deflation or inflation......probably farmland ....or bullion

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  35. Thanks for Joes response, excellent analysy. I could not agree more. Deflation is the key, we are on the edge of that being recognized in the markets. Liquidity measures are worsening. Thanks again.

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  36. CNN Breaking News! Big red banner on the top of the website! Stock indexes up 1% lol!!! Are you kidding me? This was the breaking news for about 30 minutes...they're getting very desperate.

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  37. Sister, regarding your question about search warrants:

    Last night, a friend of the family told me a story. His teenage son posted a comment on Twitter, apparently one that can be potentially be seen as a threat to our president. He read me the tweet; it was obviously a silly joke with no merit to it and would not be taken as a real threat by any reasonable person. Regardless, the next day, two secret service men are at his door. He then told me, and I quote "the 8 hours they spent going through every single personal item in our home were the most humiliating of my life". No warrant, just barged in and turned the house upside down because of a silly tweet. Now I realize the kid is an idiot, but this story should fortify the 'police state' argument Kli has made and illustrates the internet surveillance and crackdown that is beginning to ramp up.

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  38. This is a great discussion today. I didn't realize that as part of the Patriot Act, they can just enter upon their whim. I have been sad for our country for yrs., but this is the pits. Thanks so much to Joe too for spelling it all out. It's amazing to have Level 4 to see. And appreciate everyone's comments. I was watching during flash crash (if you believe it was a tweet, oh well) and GOlD went soaring +$8 in mere seconds.

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