Sunday, June 30, 2013

THE DAY OF RECKONING

 Sure, I've heard all the rumors of gold and silver's demise, and why not??? From the past one year's slaughter of this trade the voices of skeptics only grows louder. What ever happened to the past eleven years of gold and silver's move? Just an aberrant move? Why is actual physical gold and silver being bought in record amount while the U.S. mint has to shut down silver Eagle bullion coin sales? Answer it. 

WHY is India doing everything it can to stop Indians from importing gold. BECAUSE THEY HAVE A BALANCE OF TRADE/PAYMENTS ISSUE?  That is absurd..... It makes NO SENSE. What does make sense is the Western Central Banks are leaking gold bullion like a 57 Chevy leaked oil and they have a VERY heavy influence on what India tells one of the largest citizen buyers of physical gold in the world. 

So I suppose massive bullion banks like ABN Amro telling clients publicly they must settle their bullion accounts in cash is a ruse to entice weak hands into the physical market....and when there are massive paper short sales during the weakest time periods of the precious metals market that is simply liquidation by some "weak hands" because THAT is when weak hand liquidate to obtain their best prices.

Can Bernanke continue to confound the precious metals trade? ABSOLUTELY!! That is exactly what he must do to protect the game of counterfeiting. Will it go on indefinitely as some seem to think? You know my opinion on that. There is one thing I am certain of with this game. Leopards never change their spots and rats WILL jump off of sinking ships. The fiat system runs on CONfidence and THAT train is leaving town fast. Bernanke NOT going to Jackson Hole is monumental....There is a breakdown inside the casino. Their top  Faro dealer is leaving the table and he should have made his last bow at Wyoming. 

I don't blame a soul for leaving the paper market and wish I had converted to physical and taken the tax losses/penalties in late 2011, but woulda coulda and shoulda are great predictors of losers so I'll stay with my strategy and hope that the system holds together.......but just remember....there has NEVER been an experiment REMOTELY resembling the mathematical model the boyz are trying to juggle. When the balls start to get dropped, it will happen fast and furious and you won't have time to move. gl 

42 comments:

  1. Still in the Middle East, I had the chance to spend some time with my uncle, a prominent banker in the region. He and a couple of colleagues/friends often gather and discuss economic/political matters. These guys are highly educated, wealthy investors and bankers that have very similar viewpoints regarding the future economic landscape, much of it jives with what many of us believe here. Below are the highlights from the convo and is THEIR OPINION:

    The economic system of much of the western/developed world is controlled by about 2,000 families. These puppet masters have been in control for HUNDREDS of years and have amassed unbelievable fortunes in major corporations, real estate, etc. They also hold a good amount of the world's gold. They are in control and will always be.

    The current economic system created by these families is in its final stages. We will see major conflicts/changes around 2015...but it may take several years after that for a new system to be cemented, i.e. there will be several years of major change and chaos. The new system will of course still benefit the same group atop the hierarchy but could look very different below that.

    Inflation in essentials is already a problem, but will become far more of an issue over the next few years, widen the gap between the haves and have-nots even further. Civil unrest, perhaps after 2015 will be surreal. This will force any change that hadn't already been made...expect just about every head of state/major political figure to be different from the one we have today to ensure the masses are content. Of course these are just puppets anyhow.

    The battle that will take place around 2015 will center on the current state of capitalism (manipulative) vs. some sort of a communist based economic structure (East vs. West?) This will likely lead to war, potentially several proxy ones, but possibly a major world war. Russia may begin to align with the West in the near future fearing the alternative. China will begin to have major issues, from within, but spurred on by the West. After that, the chips will fall into place.

    As for us on the ground, they don't believe we can escape it by running to other countries, it'll be global. Although they believe it will be quite violent, the greater widespread damage will be wealth destruction. I was told to employ a 50% somewhat conventional, 50% end of the world portfolio balance. So conventional can include real estate, cash, investments, etc. But I was warned to keep as little in banks as possible (& that's a subject they know a lot about). The EOTW half should be in 3 things in the following order of importance...physical gold, land, physical silver. We didn't get into self reliance for food and other essentials, but I'm sure they would recommend preps given that many of them live in compounds on mountaintops lol.

    One other thing, they have been surprised at the lack of a major power play for Brazil, given its resources. Brazil has done some oil deals with China and has close relationships with the west of course, but they expect more interesting things to take place there over the next few years...actually looks like it's already beginning.

    I'll add more thoughts as I remember details from the convo.

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    1. Thanks for the great info Sammy. It's refreshing to hear an honest banker opinion without a CNBC camera in their face.

      It thought the most interesting part was Russia joining the west. That doesn't even seem like a remote possibility at this point.

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  2. SammyH,

    Excellent piece!!

    I listened the Financial Sense Radio Show this weekend. The 1st commentator (a technician) felt that Gold is in a bottoming process, and that it could take several months. He also felt that the bears are now in control of the market, and that the market will fall thru August. The bull rally will resume around September. Bond Funds are oversold, and their prices will rise. But as they rise, it will be an opportunity to sell them.

    Another commentator (commodities expert) though feels that Gold will still fall further. No target price was given.

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  3. kli,

    Why wouldn't you be better off swapping paper for physical now than you would have been in 2011? Lower price=lower capital gains tax hit.

    Seems like a great time to switch.

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    1. It is WC but I was able to accumulate a nice ammt of physical since then........and this is an SEP acct and I'll just roll the dice.....if I had a straight taxable brokerage acct I would take the deductions on the losses on my income and smile.

      Delete
  4. Hi all on the run big time talk later

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  5. Run a 100sma under the silver monthly chart and see where it bounced both times after 60% down move....it's kinda of revealing..

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  6. KLI: What's your opinion on this:

    Gold
    1,254.90
    31.10
    +2.54%

    Was last week the final leaf shaking?

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    Replies
    1. I'll let you know in a month or two......hehehe

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  7. Sammy...thanks so much for posting your insights. Again, Martin Armstrong has 10/15 as the top and CHAOS from 10/15-1/20. His economic models are world renowned so I listen...and btw, he called the exact weekly critical support for gold @1233 on Fri. I am just wondering how I can hang on to my real estate if everything else goes & I have no cash flow. I can see Russia and the West as imo we are becoming more like Russia every day--i.e., no privacy and no real political voice. And plenty of natural resources but that wealth not shared by the masses. Now reading The Road to Serfdom. GL everyone.

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  8. Recommend Wallstreetwindow as well, he makes so much sense to me: http://wallstreetwindow.com/reports/wswmonthly070113.pdf If this doesn't work, you can sign up for his free monthly newsletter...this one is all about the miners.

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  9. http://clicks.aweber.com/y/ct/?l=9Zhs6&m=3WBBG_g3rLpNQ7z&b=7gCXMXBYbISaAuHzFB3GnQ

    -Mike This might work, worth the read.

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  10. A perfect time to light a fuse....I always have a certain level of fear on the nationalistic hoildays....

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1GEpg0c1fw

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCtfBCQCJ30

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wo3FbQjKEBs

    I miss my country.

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  11. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-02/oil-tops-99-morsi-rebuffs-military-33-hours-and-counting-coup-live-feed

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  12. http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/7/2_Richard_Russell_-_Gold_Now_Rising_On_A_Stairway_Of_Hatred.html

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  13. Lead Story on Yahoo...


    Ritholtz: Gold Will Bounce Above $1400, Then Fall 50%

    Daily Ticker Despite a small gold rebound, prices remain 35% below the record high reached in September 2011, and some market watchers say the metal has further to slide.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/don-t-fooled-sell-gold-1-400-then-113216641.html

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    1. Tough decision to make if the 50% paper fall in PM is orchestrated, do I get physical gold or physical silver after I sell off the last of my government treasuries. The planted meme of an orchestrated event resulting from a severe destruction of confidence points to a summer or fall event to get the ball rolling.

      Honestly I would be more worried about chaos in the local streets in the event of a deflationary collapse, even if momentarily, paper trading would and American Idol would not really matter at that point. If the S&P breaks 1000 for 3 weeks, its over welcome to hell.

      As for SammyH, great commentary. A mountain compound does require isolation and a group to hold it. A hidden bunker requires a safe route. The rest of us just have to make the best of where we are.

      Middle East Chaos is a distraction from other issues.

      Delete
  14. once again, stick a fork in the miners. I am actually surprised some miners haven't went bankrupt at this point.

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  15. Yup,...SVM heads back into the crapper. Just a flash in the pan last week.

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  16. Gold going to the 700s and staying there for years, especially in a deflationary collapse, is entirely possible. That's one reason why I'll only consider buying physical <$1000.

    Miners will start to go bust soon, one by one, as the price of gold and silver falls below production cost. We're already there or getting pretty close.

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    1. I'm curious bud then why would you ONLY consider buying physical under 1000.....why not just wait and buy it in a few years at 700......gold actually performed very well in the last deflationary collapse in the 30s as did the miners.....gold and miners performed VERY well in the middle of the 08 collapse......best performing asset......gl with that

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    2. Fewer miners = reduced supply = higher prices

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  17. I love it! Smash SVM to $2 PLEASE. I have a lot of money coming in to gobble it up. PAAS is my other one I want. Any other suggestions of low to no debt miners with divis? I might gamble on one spec, is MUX stil the play on that?

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  18. The world is a bloody mess. Ya really think gold going to $700. Good luck with that. Alcoa may go to 5 bucks.

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  19. wow. police shoot dog:

    http://ktla.com/2013/07/01/graphic-video-shows-hawthorne-police-arresting-man-killing-his-dog/#axzz2XfmlP8au

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  20. Put me in the "I'd love to see a deflationary collapse" crowd.



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    1. Me too honestly. Hyper inflation scares me. Deflation is good... a nice purge of all the waste from the system.

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  21. Could go lower Sheeps, I've heard numbers as low as $450. Cannot rule out anything at this point.

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  22. JMO, anyone giving a number like that are just conjecturing; seems like the dollar would have to go parabolic for that to occur...these pictures are harbingers of more to come: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-02/guest-post-egyptians-love-us-our-freedom

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  23. You heard $450? Some of the things you see on the internet makes me crazy. Do you really think any of these Jokers know what is going to happen, The answer is no none of them know a damn thing so turn off Yahoo, CNBC,BLOOMBERG and all the rest maybe listen to half of what zero hedge has to say.JMO

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  24. The range has been from $300-10,000, and I believe Sinclair even put out $50,000 out there. I agree, all of these numbers are pure speculation, nobody knows where gold will be in 6 months or 6 years. But having seen so many previously unthinkable things become reality, I'm now keeping an open mind about all options and possibilities.

    As to Kli's question, why buy at $1200 when I can buy at $900 or $800? If I'm wrong and gold never sees sub-$1000, then so be it. As for the miners, they are going nowhere but down, I can't believe we're still having this discussion.

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    1. NO bud that is not my question. My question is you speak with certainty above that gold is going to 700 and STAYING there for years....SO ...WHY do you discuss buying gold at 900 or 800 when you are certain its going to 700 and staying there for years....you're all over the place......you seem to want to have your cake and eat it too in these discussions....As far as the miners go......they're destroyed and there is blood ALL over the street and I'm always curious when someone makes a blanket statement that they WILL NEVER go anywhere but down....

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    2. BTW Bud....it (paper gold) may very well go to 900 plus change......but you won't be buying it (physical) anywhere near that.

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  25. apparently the barbarous relic has "someone's" interest and don't stop with the first sentence

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323936404578581341427315844.html

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  26. It's all about averaging down in this case. If my predictions are correct, then I'll make my first set of purchases at sub-$1000, whether that's $950 or $920, or even the high $800s. Then, continue to buy small amounts as long as it stays below $1000. I hope it goes to $700 and stays there for years because that means my cash will buy me more gold, simple math. Eventually the price will recover, post 2015-16, IMO.

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    1. fair enough answer and clears up your strategy for me......and it is possible bud....

      Delete
  27. if the miners r going nowhere but down, why would one wait to buy gold sub $1000. just put everything u have , and short the shit out of the miners. it's easy money, right? and then , when gold hits that $450 price target, one could buy the shit out of that worthless yellow metal.

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  28. Woah, oil now 101.80...this won't help the global economy.

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