Tuesday, July 2, 2013

THIS IS THE FACE OF STAGFLATION

If you want to see what the face of stagflation looks like, and then extrapolate, you will be able to obtain a picture of what the United States of America is facing on this July 4, 2013. We're not far behind the scenes you are witnessing in Egypt as the 120 year Supercycle begins its final phase down. Because of our dollar and its reserve status which we enforce with 850 military bases in 145 countries, we are able to enter the hard down phase of a debt supercycle with an almost cavalier attitude to the pain that we are inflicting across much of the world. Of course there is pain here in tens of millions of households with over 100 million people living under the poverty level in the U. S. now. I listen to people with jobs and living in areas that are in a parasitic existence shielded from what is happening in many areas of their country and even in their own communities, and I wonder how much longer their illusion will last before the switch gets pulled. I don't have an answer, but the events that are occurring around the world seem to be accelerating like the inner wall of a hurricane with our country in the eye.

If you are even half alive, and you are paying attention to earnings then you must be able to see that our faux recovery is running into a wall. Companies are now missing on the top line AND the bottom line (which is REALLY easy to hit). Earnings are the life blood of an economy and in spite of the manipulation companies use to mask their problems, eventually certain truths on earnings will be exposed and that is now beginning to show up in spades. Changes in trend with no where to go for the ponzi do not bode well for our future. 

Tapering? Really? You expect to pull back the printing machine and the bond buying as your economy is careening over the cliff. Maybe they will. But if they do you can be DAMN well guaranteed that they WILL print even more when the results are realized. Of course it may occur as printing through a new and improved means such as PTUP monetization....also called Print Till U Puke.

Now lets go to the alternative. They really do stop monetization or at least really TAPER it in a meaningful manner. Then some of you will see true deflation/ Depression in a way that would fulfill a Stephen King scenario....replete with famine, wars, disease and despair. They know this and just don't want to wash the scheme in such a devastating manner, because it will result in chaos and sometimes chaos spin completely out of control. As good as they are, they have limitations. I can't give you a timeline but this cannot continue indefinitely and we are accelerating with almost weekly eruptions happening around the world. I'm not sure how much water is left in their bucket to put out these fires so put your fiat wherever you have decided it needs to be, but just be aware this game is getting long in the tooth. gl ponzi boyz and have a nice holiday for the U.S. readers...while the Indians and Chinese buy your gold......









55 comments:

  1. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-02/crude-cracks-102-egyptian-army-ready-die

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  2. Here's Nigel Farage today, more civil servants to "fix" the unemployment problem: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pEewCS9exzI

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  3. MORE voices saying gold may visit 900s....when we do hit "the bottom" MOST voices will continue to say that we have further to go down and the rise will NOT be believed as it progresses.....gl...PS Rogers uses the same philosophy here that I do....he is accumulating here and has sold NO gold ...THAT will remain my strategy

    http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/market-monitor-archive/4956-morning-call-gold-jumps-but-jim-rogers-says-prices-may-bottom-at-900-wti-spikes-to-1-year-high-on-supply-fears.html

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    1. Unless you are living in a cave this morning you seeing crisis erupt all over....Egypt Europe Portugal...these are incredibly dangerous fires

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  4. We're not without our crises here as well. Continuing mixed signals here as the housing market has become hot again (peeps afraid of rising int. rates and some investment money coming in) but unemployment actually rose in May.

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  5. putting this up here instead of main post.....but this is to be ignored at your own peril....golds performance has a long history that is well documented in deflation stagflation and inflation.....it also moves in well defined cycles......THE ONLY ENVIRONMENT that gold does not perform well in is slow growth with low inflation.....many of you listen to the MSM telling you gold only performs well in an INFLATIONARY environment...head this mantra at your own risk. here is a small clip from Fitzwilson on gold and its movement........."Gold is not being driven by inflation, regardless of which statistics one believes. The term inflation itself was quietly converted last decade from increases in the supply of money to prices. Jastram’s seminal work on gold showed that gold actually outperforms in deflationary environments. During World War I, as the prices of commodities soared, gold actually lost relative value. However, the dialogue in the media continues to focus on a lack of price inflation as to why gold has been selling off. It could not be further from the truth."

    So I encourage to do your own research but some of you are watching too much CNBS spin.......and once again MINERS...which I own in my remaining paper accounts ARE PAPER so play accordingly.

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  6. KLI: If Ben starts tapering, will you sell all you miner positions?

    Historically gold has been tied to fear. In these twilight zone days, it's tied to the Fed.
    I just don't see the sense in holding miner stocks when the dollar is sure to gain value.



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    1. System is broken beyond repair. Physical gold is one of the few places to go for refuge. Miners, well, you'd better choose the right ones.

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  7. Abandoning International Law and Diplomatic Sovereignty on a rumour. The illusion of civility will come crashing down fast.

    The media propaganda to relax, do nothing and wait for better times is does get me a little nervous; being blatantly told to re-arrange deck chairs at this time seems surreal.

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  8. butt,,,butt,,,,in my area everything is fine,,,,the restaurants are full
    and the line is out the door

    I asked a client about this....manager of a major steak house outside
    my own area.

    so I asked him how things are doing?
    same crap.....the place is full....the line is out the door.

    then I asked about layoffs.....and the line out the door?

    the phone went quiet.

    after some time he said.....at the first of the year he did a 12% layoff.....and the first of last month
    of last month he had to do a 17% layoff...so yes the line is out the door he said.

    then I asked......prices paid and plate size

    that is when he said it all..

    he said when the 12oz went to 10oz they were able to cover it up with a larger bake potato
    and more salad and bread

    then they went from a 12in plater to a 8 in plate..

    then the 10oz went to a 8oz and a smaller papato..

    then he said with higher gas.....taxes....rent....electric.....he can not go
    on with higher prices per plate

    end

    people it is not as it seems

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  9. the hacks..

    come on people......you have lived with them all your lives.


    you know who they are.....do not pay off your home.....put the money in the stock market..



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  10. there are two hacks on this site


    do you see them yet

    paladin

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    1. I actually play a good game of golf, so it can't be me!

      Happy 4th of July to all of you and your families!

      fore

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  11. I see only one in this thread. 3 letter name that begins with J.

    Lol

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    1. Gee, thanks for outing me Silver... you have a great 4th too.

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    2. Jay isn't a hack.....he's just trying to figure out the ponzi....he's just beginning to understand how corrupt it really is.....

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  12. Egypt could really create some breakdown in the middle east if violence breaks out in the next 48 hours. I wonder if anyone reading that lives in or near has any insight as to what the the Muslim Brotherhood plans to do next....if civil war does break out then the central banks will have their hands full....meanwhile Trayvon Martin/Zimmerman and pregnant teacher should fill space for the dumbed down peeps.

    and no not selling miners..

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  13. from Joe today....

    During gloom and doom, it's the best time to make money TRADING miners, you guys keep worrying about where the exact bottom in Gold and miners are which results in missing great buy and sell trades short term especially in my favorite trading stock MUX, look at gaps and volatility especially past couple of sessions between 1.60 ad 1.90. Who cares what the bottom in Gold is, you guys won't be able to tell and will miss it any way, focus on technical trading and that way it makes no difference where the paper Gold price is, that's if you want to make paper profit from miners and for heaven sake stop bitching all the time about how devastated miners are, that's because you have played the buy and hold game past couple of years rather than playing the swings game. It's times like this that experienced traders love trading miners and specifically MUX. I only trade MUX among miners and the price swings are excellent, meanwhile enjoy the following song, the latest by the greatest Rock & Roll band of all time, it's time to rock rather than bitch, IMPROVISE and ADJUST rather than keep bitiching and looking for exact bottoms.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bLiiekSBDjo

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  14. President Obummer isn't very popular in Egypt right now:

    http://imgur.com/a/eaXHX

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    Replies
    1. spelling error.... that is O'Dummer (he is Irish on his mother's side) *grin*

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  15. Speaking of CNBS, no one is watching...lowest ratings since 1994 with 3 programs showing worst quarter ever: http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/07/cnbc-quarterly-ratings-fall/ I never watch that chit.

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    1. They have become a joke...I can't get ANY useful information from their propaganda for the ponzi.....I used to be able to filter the BS and just focus on their useful info but they don't have ANY useful pearls anymore

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  16. http://politicalvelcraft.org/2013/07/01/banking-cabal-gone-wild-how-the-u-s-citizens-were-deceived-about-the-rothschild-international-paper-bail-in-regime-the-innocuous-corrupt-dodd-frank-bill/

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    1. "Bail-in, in its simplest terms, is the inverse policy of what was done under Franklin D. Roosevelt’s Glass-Steagall Act and the 1933 Banking Act generally. Under bail-in the bank survives, the depositors do not. As is stated in an IMF review of the policy from April 2012, “The statutory bail-in power is intended to achieve a prompt recapitalization and restructuring of the distressed institution.”

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    2. There will be bank runs in any country at the slightest hint of a bail-in. Almost forces most individuals with combined bank deposits over 250k to start seriously looking at alternative stores of value outside of banks, not an easy task. If you are a highly leveraged individual or a small business owner with monthly payments of 250k+, your whole house of cards will come tumbling down within less than a month. Unemployment will surpass 50% within a month, bankers and politicians will be hanging from lamp posts along with any body guards stupid enough to stay around. JIT will break down as payments for goods and fuel will be almost impossible for most businesses. Civility is not an American trait , basically Americans have been conditioned to loot and riot when their entitlements dry up.

      Side note, most readers here will get slaughtered trying to shadow day trade with Joe on Level 3. Better off planting a garden and firing up the BBQ.

      Back to the Blue Pill and seeing if Snowden accepts Amanda Chapman's proposal of marriage on the next episode of Dancing with the Spies.

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    3. immred,

      so true, Joe said he will destroy you and me if were on wrong side of trade....
      the market right now is so manipulated I have pared everything accept ARNA as long term trade..

      it pays to steal....if your a wall street shill

      http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/07/04/steven-cohen-probably-wont-face-criminal-charges-in-276-million-insider-trading-case-wsj/

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  17. This article is mind blowing I read it and enjoyed. I always find this type of article to learn and gather knowledge.

    Ogniwa fotowoltaiczne

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  18. Just got back from a much needed two week R&R, unplugged completely for the first week & half that was nice, really nice, kinda sorry I checked back in...... However where I was there was no shortage of folks spending money and partying like it was 1999. The only thought I had watching this was boy there are a bunch of folks that are going to be in for a rude awakening.....

    Hope all is well with you Sammy great info, wish you a safe return home.

    Joe was right after all, re: Military running Egypt, I thought he missed that one when the Bro Hood took over but as usual he was correct and he is also correct here "IMPROVISE and ADJUST rather than keep bitching and looking for exact bottoms" "Improvise and Adjust" is more relevant to me given the current climate as I'm no longer trading, sold what I'm gonna sell and holding a few miners and will see what happens. More of a collector now primary for peace of mind rather than profit and if at some point it actually is profitable, great its all gravy.

    When you look at all the turmoil and strife in other Countries and knowing full well its coming this way in some shape or fashion I'm looking at "time" as the most precious commodity and I am determined to make the most out of the time we have left given to us by TPTB because when and not if the turmoil and strife comes our way there will be plenty of time then to really "bitch".....

    as to paladin's point regarding restaurants shrinking portions and raising prices been going on for a number of years if you've been paying attention, plus I have a number of friends in the business and they are right in line with commercial packaged foods, give the peeps less for more! Just can't make a profit in this current environment either large or small!

    IMHO Red's correct, plant a garden, fire up the BBQ, do some preps and enjoy the time we have left!

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  19. Bye Bye Gold. I sold half my miners this am. I am in DUST (in at 137.84) now. If you can't beat them join them.

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    1. DUST puts are tempting me something fierce. Not current month but the furthest out. I remember when SKF was in the 200-300 range and I bought way OTM puts and made a killing when it finally did fall. That was just a 2x etf. The rate at which 3x etfs can fall is astonishing. But sitting on my hands for right now.

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    2. play what you can afford to lose....but watch the leveraged etfs.....you're in their meatgrinder when you do

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  20. Hey everyone, I'm back in the states. I have a few more observations to note later, but wanted to add something to the convo on bail-ins and bank runs. I was warned several times about keeping any large sum of $ in banks...And even though it may be obvious, I was also told to be sure to keep withdrawl slips etc. if you're going to keep the cash at home instead. I guess door to door searches, at least if you're remotely suspicious, isn't out of the question.

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  21. Btw I cannot believe the 10-year is at 2.70...and nobody seems all that concerned!!! WTI oil approaching $103. DTO looking delicious at $35, I'm going to wet my beak lol

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    1. its surreal sammy...and welcome back

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  22. http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/7/5_Marc_Faber_-_This_Will_End_In_Disaster.html

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  23. Are they intending for these rates to increase like this or is it oops? I have trouble believing they cannot continue to manipulate the bond market but realize it is much huger than equities.

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    1. Margin Call Monday in the bond funds and ETFs and further liquidations in the gold ETFs.

      Rothschilds can't buy unless there is blood in the streets, preferably other traders who did not get the heads up. Only remaining asset of any value left is physical gold held by the ETFs, Hedgies and few small to mid size sovereigns who haven't lent it out. The stocks and bonds are worthless except as trading vehicles. Farmland will be picked up during the deflationary takedowns from the leveraged "investors".

      Finished BBQ lunch out to get haircut.

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    2. spot on again red...and I do agree with you big time on the farmland. My timing on the miners may make me miss my chance to convert miners to farmland.......maybe....time will tell

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    3. its all breaking down as predicted AND on the timeline.......where when and how you invest a shit load of fiat in this meat grinder is NOT as predictable for a very obvious reason and that is as you have alluded to red. The true power behind this ponzi has managed to wash out the miner and gold sentiment to an extreme and fly in the face of logic......this is their M.O.... I've elected to stay in the ponzi and will not deviate from my strategy but as you have said trying to trade the miners on a short term basis is fine for joe but NOT fine for most of us ........accumulating physical is how many peeps will probably survive best. Even cash in the mattress has major risks......gl all

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  24. egypt breaking down as i worried about....prepare for real problems if this spreads into other islamic regions

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    1. Yup getting fugly over their guess those in the Bro Hood needed a little time to muster the troops feel sorry for those caught in the cross fire! See what fourth years of meddling in the affairs of others will get you........

      Looks like Snowden might not make it to his stint on "Dancing with the Spies".....

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    2. Bro hood is CIA backed....in fact so is the "other side"...hehehehee....its diabolical......there's no way they can miss with firing up another conflict.....does this pattern sound familiar???.....

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    3. All too familiar and what was it we supposed to be celebrating yesterday? Unfortunately those stuck in the middle both here and abroad and those stuck in the crossfire get to suck eggs and are sacrificed......

      As the old saying goes, Wash, Rinse, Repeat


      "diabolical" nope more like pure "evil".......


      Rod Sterling knew it......

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-k4WJGtGnBw

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  25. i know many of you wonder if this can go on indefinitely or at least a "long long time".....this is how i feel as you may know but I just want to make sure you know how i feel

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/7/5_Gold_%26_Silver_Smash_%26_Fires_Burning_Everywhere_In_The_World.html

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  26. How in the world the markets went up that much today is crazy with int. rates climbing ever upward and oil almost $104/bbl. And that pathetic jobs number heralded as some kind of triumph...at our neighbor bbq last night all the talk was of "helping others" due to so many in our city w/out food. In the meantime, the ptb raising every tax imaginable here in N.C. and the city...hmmm.

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  27. read this and if ANYONE can dispute this be my guest to do so.....and if you can't then you had better wake up and realize we're falling off a cliff...its all an illusion....carefully crafted i might add...nevertheless and illusion

    http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2013/07/the-governments-numbers-are-complete.html

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  28. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-05/obama-call-for-muslim-brotherhood-role-overtaken-in-egypt.html

    Nothing like adding fuel to the fire.........

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  29. perhaps we had a "moral authority" to lecture other countries regarding their resolution of these civil crisis.....maybe....but with certainty that illusion has been vanquished with the past 10 years of our actions and our own tyranny....NDAA...Patriot act...TSA..DHS....its over...so lecture away....its only falling on deaf ears and everyone knows the divide and conquer recipe.

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  30. "! That terminator is out there. It can't be bargained with, it can't be reasoned with. It doesn't feel pity or remorse or fear, and it absolutely will not stop-EVER, until you are dead."

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  31. This is the face on no growth: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-business/european-business/in-italy-a-sense-of-desperation/article13043093/ So sad...just as a no brainer, I will be buying euo and uup.

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  32. Wish I would learn to type...meant another face of no growth (stagflation).

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  33. But then the central bankers and the neo-cons like Krugman will say, ‘Well, the disaster occurred because we didn’t spend enough money. The fiscal deficits were not big enough. We didn’t print enough money.’ I tell you they will misinform the people of the whole world continuously, and never assume any personal responsibility.

    At least if a hedge fund loses money, he stands up and say, ‘Yes, I f*cked up, or I messed up. I lost money.’ But the central bankers will always, always find an excuse that they are not guilty of any mistakes in their policies. It’s a very vicious and despicable class of people (central bankers).” - Faber

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    1. Well you can include any and all politicians reguardless of party in the above, past & present!

      With the exception of a few not a one, especially as of late will remotely accept responcability for their actions.....

      But hey what can you expect when your a banker's b-itch!

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