Wednesday, August 14, 2013

NEXT!!

As in ready for the next leg down in the Supercycle Deflationary collapse. We've been at this illusionary stage for over five years now and after infusing a minimum of 40 Trillion into the global economy we've reached the edge of the cliff again and starting to slide over. Objective data is such as top line company revenue is contracting and the next wave of U.S. layoffs are beginning and will only add to our "real" unemployment of roughly 14%. If you add in the fact that part time and workers that have just given up then the number goes over 23%.......that my folks is a DEPRESSION! Never mind the printed fiat sugar buzz you've been sucking up like there is no tomorrow......because there is. Its here now and its coming faster than you can imagine. It will "come out of nowhere"...and "no one could have seen it coming".... Except this time we're not going to get an easy fix of trillions to get us back up off the deck. Each new round of QE has been less and less effective as even a "massaged" GDP slips ever so slowly into the abyss. The key indicator of recovery however is Velocity of money and that number is so bad that ex-Fed gov Larry Meyers looked stunned when asked by a Bloomberg interviewer about it and then laughed and pretended he didn't know what it was.......realizing even the reporter was not buying the answer he tried to mitigate its importance as being irrelevant in modern economics. Anyone that understands economics knows the velocity of money is not only relevant, but is key to prosperous, growing economy.

We're entering a very critical juncture in the ponzi. This is the part where the Fed proclaims the economy healed and the road to recovery so strong that the Fed money printing can begin the process of winding down with the "taper". I thought they could do it and I still do......BUT not because the economy is healing, but because I thought they would have enough manipulative statistics to pull off the final CON.......the illusion that the QE has worked so well to this point that they can decrease it AND raise rates with the spread giving the banks the needed profit potential present to unleash lending from the accumulated "reserves".........and "Magic" we have the velocity of money once again rising with confidence.....that my friends is the GAME....the PLAN....and finally in my opinion the CATASTROPHE ......as it all falls flat on its face. I am not even sure they can pull off the illusion of announcing tapering beginning in September but my bets are they will announce it in September........EITHER way, whether they announce it in September or NOT.....we get a serious set back to the market. By the way if the jobs report for August is neutral or better then they will announce tapering.....its the only thing that would prevent them from it.   Back to the market, gold and silver....Market starts correcting and gold and silver (physical) remain the place for safety as the desperate play to prevent its rise during the past year backfires as precious physical metal no longer exists for the cover of the naked paper shorters.....game over. gl all the next two months should be doozies.... For those of you that read this blog and are suffering, my heart goes out to you and your family.....to those of you entering this historic time my heart also goes out to you and I hope you can remain strong and lead not only your family but others in your community through this period. We all will change.

84 comments:

  1. Cisco cutting 4,000 jobs...every little bit hurts. I remember 5 yrs. ago on the SKF board talking about if only the U.S. would invest in infrastructure rather than bail-outs and wars. What a difference that would have made! So sad for so many worldwide.

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    1. this will appear to be a last ditch effort to jump start the illusion but they already know it will fail......more QE will then follow that will be even GREATER as the fall in the "market" and the economy are linked to "taper" CONFIRMING that MORE QE is needed . This will vindicate the Keynesians.....wash rinse repeat......the game

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  2. I'm certain this action has nothing to do with the purported shortages of bullion bank physical gold....sarc/

    http://truthingold.com/?p=3141

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  3. 10y treasury price creating turmoil in equity market ....my 2.78 yield broken......Ben's plan in place

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  4. Here's the predicted Panic Cycle, but my look at exk!

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  5. I could not regret selling to rebuy on a decline. Sheesh! What a tear EXK went on. Can't go broke taking a profit but man, the one time I do sell my miners and they continue to fly, go figure ;) Maybe the fundamentals are finally too much for the manipulation.

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  6. IMO no tapering in September. They're engineering a crash so that they won't have to. "Even the talk of tapering is going to destroy the recovery". Not sure how long they can hold this economy together with duct tape and bubble gum...and lies.

    Check out the VIX.

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  7. Here's the last straw imho: http://i1.wp.com/armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/UNODA1.jpg Creation of a United Nations Police Taskforce and the complete outlaw of all weapons. Chit it's acomin'.

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    1. sister: I've never been a "gun person"... But that article makes me want to go out and buy my first firearm.

      Notice how they single out the "United States". The UN really has a problem with the 2nd Amendment of the US Constitution. "How dare those pesky civilians own guns!?! We need the ability to pull a Cyprus or Egypt on them at will!!"



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  8. Alright sell your miners cause I'm back in them haha... and not trading them anymore.

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  9. Silver breaking $22... Squeeze time?

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    1. Yikes! That breaks 1340 with gusto I'd be bailing on my short :)

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    2. Jay,

      Preperation H might help of you insist on holding on to your shorts.... hehehehe

      btw: you reside in the NW, no? Ain't the gun laws similar to those in the NE??? Go for it!!!

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  10. PMs exploding! In a matter of minutes

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  11. KABOOM! There goes the dynamite!

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  12. Nothing but air for silver now.

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  13. Silver has the potential for a major move over the next two months after breaking 22.50

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  14. I keep monitoring the chatter over at the Keystone Speculator. The general feeling there is that this market selloff will reverse, and the markets will continue their general trend higher.

    The markets often price things in 6 months ahead or so. Thus, some tapering in September may already be priced in. Ben might only taper a little bit, like buy 60 billion instead of 85 billion. Should Ben taper, don't be surprised if the markets don't sell off much,...the market might have it priced in

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    1. Yes Doc...very possible as I have previously mentioned....taking some air out of the market now so that with taper the "appearance" of the market responding "positively" will confirm that taper is working....this however would be transient and followed by a major selloff in early 2014 as the real economy tanks. The problem is the real economy is ALREADY tanking and the CONfidence/velocity of money is in deep trouble.....so the "taper play" may be too late to institute for any benefit. IF they don't taper in September then the market will respond very negatively ......there are so many variables that trading it is a crap shoot here so I'll ride the miners and trade just peripherally small positions....one morning we could wake up and gold will be up 300 bucks.....tough to trade that. right now NO ONE that is NOT in the miners wants to jump in here......they're FROZEN......that's the game.....deer in the headlights

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    2. I mentioned on previous thread that after earnings go short...I see 6-10 days of bear feeding along with bull rips, then the big boys have something to drive back up when they get back after labor day. Could be a cup formed on silver daily and weekly maybe a handle and then rocket....

      every market selloff reverses so those keystone folks are definitely not going out on a limb...

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  15. YeeHaw!!! run miners run!!! seems like the downtrend has been obliterated. good luck every one! my bag of shit may have legs. ego,KGC, SSRI and svm.

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    1. your bag of shit looks better than my bigger bag of shit.......SSRI has been a monster

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  16. I'm gettin killed! GLD was down earlier... Now skyrocketing!

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  17. Speaking of bags o chit looking into mine CGR is finally over .25 cents hehehehe but the remainder of my RIC just doesn't seem to want to join the party!!!!!

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    1. NO CHIT Tom......lets see what they've got left

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    2. I've got so many shares of CGR one poster here called me a market maker in it......eeeeeeeee

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    3. Well considering I'm bout sixty cents away from basis, if you plan on dumping all at once how bout a heads up for and ole friend!

      Hehehehehe

      GPL had a nice day too!

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    4. I'm sure they tried to get some of us to puke them up.......hell.....I'm so for under I decided to play it as an option.....

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  18. Miners are taking off. Some with double digit % gains.

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  19. Fast approaching the 200 on many miners. could be tomorrow at this rate.

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  20. silver looks like a ballistic missile

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  21. Jay, was hoping you got out of your shorts. Not sure what's up with RIC & PPP uncharacteristically lagging as well. Maybe they catch up tomorrow.

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    1. could just be some forced liquidation on the part of some hedges levered on the equity or bond market here......and there are a lot of margin calls being made for sure

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  22. DUST puts at $100-$150 would probably have made us millionaires by now haha... damn I was chicken ;)

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  23. I posted this a while back, the divergence...Use the divergence luke...

    http://s11.postimg.org/kl2ijoklf/Silver_weekly_long_term_with_60_move.jpg

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    1. Many miners have also been showing massive divergences

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    2. and that divergence paid off well :)
      Soros bought a put on 1,248,643 SPY units in the quarter

      “The last time SPY puts topped the Soros Fund was in the 30th June 2011 filing and we saw the S&P 500 lose 15%+ over the 6-7 weeks following, over July/August (during which time Soros reduced the position substantially). The position in 2011 was less than half the size of the current one which makes me think he might be anticipating a larger decline on this occasion.”

      ISR still moving north...

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  24. What a great close... my God. This is so different I don't know how to feel haha ;)

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  25. You guys need to hire me to short gold. I'll do it for $1000 a trade?

    Come on, I know there are some deep pockets around here. :)

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    Replies
    1. Hahah i feel your pain. Did you go ahead and cover? Buy some calls to make up for it :)

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  26. Or you could try those S&P puts, lol. I have a friend with massive calls on slv. Fingers crossed for him.

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  27. silver's target is 26.50......should be quite a battle there. Look for nice trades in that area for the short time traders...IF and WHEN it blows through it and CONFIRMS then its off to the races....

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  28. Now that we're getting a pullback you gotta wonder how long it will last. Many people have been wanting in at lower prices... which almost makes much lower prices a pipe dream.

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    1. your right on...sidelined bulls will want to get in for sure...green by end of day..

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  29. Should be buying opps today. Crushing the miners again.

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  30. Healthy pullback needed watch RSIs on 2hour for entry at 50sh

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  31. Do you use 14 for RSI? It looks like it would hit 50 right around some of those gap fills (SSRI for one).

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  32. Meant to add, there are also lots of gaps UP from the months of falling prices.

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    1. I was thinking those gaps would fill too but now... that looks pretty unlikely. Unless tapering was announced then *maybe*

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    2. everyone now expecting a pullback in gold and therefore miners.......hehehehhehe......of course there will be a pullback.......question is WHEN and from what level

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    3. Silver is fun and terrifying to trade... it can run harder than you think for days on end, just as well as we know it can crash for days on end with no logic. You catch one of those updrafts with calls and my god you can make a fortune.

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  33. I'm out of the market and I regret my gamble. I'm taking a break.

    Have a nice weekend all.

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    1. Well then...... Your not a good gambler...... Hehehehe

      If your gonna play sometimes your gonna pay!

      Win some , lose some!


      Anyway Jay don't sweat it and enjoy your weekend!!!!

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  34. Damn Kli you were right on the 10 year... 30 year mortgages are near 5% now. Not good!

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  35. spx giving up the fifty day....friggin bear trap? juicy returns on well bought miners, hehehe.

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  36. They are good... letting silver and gold run but miners are left behind. Making those who are riding the run up nervous and selling into their hands I bet. Pretty crafty ;)

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  37. IF and a big IF........if they are NOT going to taper then they will continue to have the market correcting into the September meeting.......and announce NO taper with further easing as far as the eye can see......this type of market is not going to end well but it would make a nice long entry and then I would layer in my shorts at the 62% retrace from the bottom.....ie...I don't think they will get a new high or if they do then layer more non leveraged shorts on it......just remember you are in a paper game and they can take it all....on the 10Y ...this is disturbing and spells real trouble ahead for the real economy so all of you better get serious about your prepping

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  38. I agree Kli, 10-year blasted through your 2.78...now 2.85...and that spells big trouble! And I for one believe that there will be no tapering and that this drop is engineered so that taper talk can be put to bed.

    Quick story: A close friend works for a local bank in a neighboring town. He told me that 10s of millions of new savings/CD deposits were being made on a weekly basis over the past month or so. I told him to start asking where the $ was being diverted from. After a few weeks we spoke again. He told me that the vast majority was from sales of homes and liquidation of equity positions. Now this story is much more meaningful if you knew the name of the town. Some of the wealthiest, most powerful people in the world live there. I'll give you a hint...it's in CT and begins with a G.

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    1. Step right up and place your bets. 1 for a quarter, 2 for a pre-1965 quarter.

      1-Glastonbury
      2-Goshen
      3-Granby
      4-Greenwich
      5-Griswold
      6-Groton
      7-Guilford

      I'm going to go out on a limb and guess #4.

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  39. Wonder if they're just trying to kill the massive amount of GDX $30 weekly calls. This move is too weird.

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  40. Sammy,

    Just a thought on your story, that behavior seems to me anyway, counter to the lessons learned in Cypress for those that have that kind of coin, unless of course I'm missing something......

    Why would one want to be buying CD's now?

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    1. JUST because you are wealthy Tom, do not assume they know the game......plus many may be buying more short term duration CDs .....MANY wealth accounts are moving into tangible assets with a vengeance now....fine art, diamonds, collectibles.....please understand TRUE wealth needs diversification INCLUDING cash/CDs as they diversify into tangibles also......So someone moving a hundred million out of equities can certainly put 10 million in CDs as they move 90 million into real estate, diamonds gold art etc......its all about managing large amounts of wealth.......and 100 million in equities is chump change for many

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    2. Well chump change for some...... Hehehehe

      Kli, Sammy.... Thanks for the clarification but since I'm not wealthy I can't afford to think like that and I'm not as confident as Sammy regarding a Cypress type event happening here....

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    3. Haha well I never said I was confident enough to risk my own money ;)

      Just don't think it's likely.

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    4. Ditto!

      Enjoy the weekend!

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    5. I know a number of people who live in Greenwich. Smart people but clueless as to what's really going on. It's not in their best interest to upset the apple cart and, as with many, there's normalcy bias.

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    6. Very good points....but to some extent it could become a self-fullfiling prophecy. It's difficult to read into it too deeply, but I would say the idea of a major economic collapse is beginning to reach critical mass, the fear level is rising and people are starting to act on it.

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  41. Tom,

    That's a fair point. I think there are 2 possible answers.

    A) They want to be out of harm's way, and the immediate harm would be in the form of a market correction/crash and real estate collapse. This is the immediate danger and the safest 'traditional' option is to liquidate and place at least a portion of the capital in the bank.

    B) They don't feel that a bail-in Cyprus style is a possibility here. Although anything is possible, especially in a collapse situation, I also don't believe that a bail-in is a likely outcome. 401Ks, pensions, etc. are certainly a possibility for 'theft', but seizing bank accounts would be a low probability event IMO.

    It seems like these people believe that a deflationary event/collapse is coming, potentially one where most assets would lose significant value...not to mention the inability to exit in a collapse scenario. Perhaps they plan on re-entering the markets at some later date, at lower prices.

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    1. They are hearing what's been fed to them by the main stream media while seeing the stock market at all time highs begin to fade as some big companies miss their earnings targets. Buzz words = taper, debt ceiling, war, earnings miss, etc, so they run for cover. Very few, if any, really understand the structural issues and how it is going to affect them. These are the folks that will have the hardest time when reality finally arrives.

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  42. Yes Kli, from what my friend told me, most of the new deposits were in the form of short duration CDs and savings accounts. And like I said above, I think it's fine to have $ in the bank so long as you're diversified with your total net worth.

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  43. SammyH,

    I wonder if it is small regional bank too, and not like BOA, HSBC, Citi, etc.

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    1. Doctrader, yes! I failed to mention that, it is a relatively small, regional bank.

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    2. I would bet that they have accounts at some of the larger banks too.

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  44. http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/what-is-going-to-happen-if-interest-rates-continue-to-rise-rapidly Watch the 10yr...I have been for about 6 months now. Good read, IMO.

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  45. Panic buying of tangible assets is already underway...gold and silver should be on sustainable uptrend and buying on pullbacks

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  46. So just how does the FED end the carnage in the bond market??

    I know. Tis called flight to safety AKA sheep shearing.

    This is the only way to save the credit market and make money for the big wigs on the short side.

    Of course, there will be an "unforseen" circumstance that causes this.

    This is a very sick shell game.

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  47. that will work fine sheeps for the shorter end of the curve but don't count on it doing a lot for the 10year.....the only buyers of the ten year at these levels are the FED.......and if China japan etc sell their longer end bonds.....then its curtains

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  48. I listened to the 1st hour of Financial Sense. Here are the comments related to Gold.

    1) The negative lease rates for Gold that come from London (LBMA) are Bullish for Gold.

    2) The present rise in Gold could be primarily due to a short squeeze. Expect resistance to be around $1400 and it could be significant resistance.

    3) A rise & close above $1400 would indicate that bull market is back on & prices will keep rising.

    4) Failure @ $1400 (this is what Financial Sense feels will happen) will cause Gold to fall and eventually lead to a low below $1180.

    Overall, they feel the market will remain weak--perhaps all the way to 1/2014. They believe people are selling both stocks & bonds--thus putting money into cash (supports what SammyH wrote above).

    I will try to listen to the other hour later.

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  49. Armstrong's ECM turned down until Sept. of '14....interesting in light of the election year. He expects the Dow to fall this week, but the weekly bearish reversal is 14805 so we aren't there yet. Predicts a silver low the week of 9/9. This is how I am interpreting the latest post...please amend as understood. Lots of panic buying in Real Estate here. John Mauldin also reporting Nominal GDP growth over the past year is the slowest ever recorded outside a recession. I wonder whether they will deign to call it a recession after-the-fact.

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  50. This article is mind blowing. When I read this article, I enjoyed.

    book publicity

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