Wednesday, September 25, 2013

RETURN OF THE BULL

But when? Maybe you're in it and don't know it yet. You're certainly in a 12 year gold secular bull market....but have we started a new cyclical bull and if so for how long before the next intermediate downtrend?  I lost any semblance of a crystal ball reader several years ago so I just stay in my long term bullish stance on the PMs and will continue to do so with only peripheral trading on daily extremes. IF we are currently establishing a new higher low in the uptrend started a couple of months ago in the miners then so be it and I'll make a few trades as the move up occurs. Only small trades unless the extremes become "too extreme" and you know what they say about pigs. There really hasn't been too much in the metals trade to crow about after the beatdown administered by the cartel. I know I have talked about the possibility they would do what they did over the last 2 years but like many I was surprised by just how vicious the attack was. As mentioned a number of times this was a very crowded trade and in retrospect I can see how they did it. Crushing the levered players and pushing through the alto bot stops was predictable. Taking apart the Paulsons was always a goal of the cabal. Hanging a "DON'T TOUCH" on this sector was a goal. Removing the label that PMs were a "Safety Trade" was a goal. After all a threat to the "dollar" was not tolerable. 

Will this all end with the cabal muddling through and moderate growth re-established even though we have gone through a multi-generational structural collapse of a once mighty nation? Can we receive multiple blows to our constitution that provided a foundation to the greatest nation ever? Will enough sheeple wake up in time to prevent a complete totalitarian collapse into hell? AWARENESS! Its our only hope as a nation and as a world. I feel virtually no self-pity, but I do feel very sad for the young people and their families and what they are going to have to endure unless somehow this spiral into hell is halted. Maybe we will wake up and nature will resolve the transgressions levied against Nature. That may not be a welcome solution for many of us, but there is a day of reckoning coming and one way or another, we will have to sacrifice. Our credit cards just won't be "suddenly" paid off and nirvana is once again reestablished.

I appreciate your efforts to post and keep this site open AND I also understand your frustrations with this game. I didn't know how the collapse would unwind but this level of corruption is not surprising. gl 

32 comments:

  1. Looks like the algo shorts are piling in again. There are plenty of other threats to the dollar besides gold/silver.

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  2. Good post Kli. I have a question for you, and anybody else that cares to weigh in. What miners are you comfortable enough for longterm hold until the rebound?

    Clearly the entire miner class has been beaten down significantly. I have been accumulating shares of a few miners that I have researched enough to believe they are strong, and due to relative bargain pricing, have good long-term potential. However, there are likely many I'm not be aware of. I'd like to know specifically what miners you, or anybody here, feel are solid for long term hold. I'm talking about knowing the company and their properties, not just the trending for day trading purposes.

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    1. 1 oz Canadian Maple Leafs.....

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    2. Thanks Hubz and Sister. Tom, I've been accumulating physical for a long time, this was about playing miners. BTW, I have all the 1 oz Maples I want, because the Perth mint 1 oz is almost the same price, is packaged in display quality hard plastic, nicer looking coins, plus has higher numismatic value--I haven't bought Canadian for a long time, but I continue to buy Australian, 2 orders this week actually. Order a few yourself and you'll forget about Maples.

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    3. sorry for the delayed response..... SSRI EXK PPP RIC

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    4. GORO is good here from macro and technical

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    5. Think wasn't being snarky I have bunch but wouldn't recommend this trade to any one even at this price and believe me the gambler in me wants to play but I ain't so that just me. I'm doing other things but I'll take a look at the others however I shop premiums for the most part...

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    6. Thinkthenact, what house are you buying your perth mints from? or is it just a local dealer of yours? I need to add..

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  3. Looks like perma-bear John Hussman, who has missed the huge market run-up since 2009 is starting to turn bullish. He thinks the S&P could hit 1850 by November thanks to the Fed. He's probably right, but when bears and doomers start throwing the towel (classic capitulation), it could be a typical contrarian indicator.

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  4. Why do you call Hussman a perma-bear? Is it because he points out the Case Shiller PE (CAPE) is at very high levels which is an indicator of future below average returns? I would call him cautious (not a bear). Hussman is very analytical and logical in everything I have read from him.

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  5. Hussman is an intelligent man and I've been reading his weekly column for years. He has always made sound arguments based on fundamentals and macro analysis, and held a bearish view since 2009. He has doubted the huge 150% run-up every step of the way, and if we were in a situation where the natural market forces were in charge instead of algos and all this artificial money, he would have been right. But we are operating under a new reality, so one needs to adjust their viewpoints accordingly. He may be proven right one day when the Ponzi collapses, but until then, no need to fight the trend and lose money.

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  6. I see, it is different this time. Bud - U R 2 funny

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  7. Of course it's different this time. Do you have any historical comparison or precedence to the amount of QE the world's central banks have been pumping out the last 4 years? There's none, it's unprecedented. We all know it will end badly, but until then, some people will take advantage of money making opportunities, while others will stubbornly hold on to their views and either lose money or miss the opportunities available to them.

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  8. It is always different this time (that never changes). U R 2 funny

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    1. hehehe Inlet....you have to give him credit Inlet he already knows its a ponzi and HOW and WHEN he can "get out"... gl to him

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  9. Think--Just speaking for myself, SLW has been the best performing holding over the years (yes, years!). I am still acquiring on pullbacks. As far as gold miners, PPP has been good. I watch FNV for direction and it looks to have bottomed in June/July. But who knows how long we will be range-bound?

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  10. Oh Sammy it's getting closer....

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-26/cyprus-style-wealth-confiscation-starting-all-over-world

    from the above link.....

    Canada

    Incredibly, even Canada is moving toward adopting these "bank bail-ins".  In a previous article, I explained that "bail-ins" were even part of the new Canadian government budget...

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  11. National Bank of Panama on holiday from noon tomorrow until Mon. In addition to staples, be sure to have some cash on hand. I'm wondering whether this will be a "bail-in".

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  12. everyday we get a little closer Nancy.....I am trying to pretend and play like its going to keep going but the news is more surreal everyday....

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  13. Yeah Tom, that's certainly not comforting. Well as long as we can continue to 'print', I'm not worried about my deposits haha! WHEN we lose our reserve status, then all hell may break loose. My intent is to acquire real estate/land after it suffers through some deflation...but it continues to be propped up with sticks and duct tape. So I'm rolling the dice a little with cash at the local bank.

    The problem with these bail-ins though is that once you crack open that box, there's no going back. And considering how critical banks are to this whole ponzi, would they risk forever losing the confidence of every client/investor/saver in the country. I still don't think we'll have bail-ins here. Very good chance 401ks get robbed, pensions cut, taxes rise, benefits/programs slashed, but I'm not sure about bank deposits.

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    1. When the banking system is allowed to fail and deposits are only insured up to $250,000 or $100,000 if they revert back to the old standard, that is essentially a de-facto bail-in. If you lose your currency reserve at the same time, the guarantee will almost being meaningless by the time the paperwork is worked out and you get access to what's left. With ZIRP for short term deposits, you have to seriously question the logic of keeping any serious amount on the electronic banking grid.

      Deflation may accompany a new currency with amounts up to a certain amount like the FDIC limit redeemable during the bank failures. If things go really bad, what you have at hand is what you have, no help coming from the central government.

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    2. Well I guess you can count the debt we've taken on as a country and the 0.1% interest we've been receiving on savings as a bail-in! I just believe there are bigger, easier things to raid such as 401ks...which I still have hanging out there like a piñata btw.

      So you don't think we'll see deflation until the US$ departs? So they'll keep printing & propping up asset prices till the final curtain closes...reset.

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    3. May not be a clean pop to reset. Assuming no big endgame surprise for the proles (like an EMP event), you will get a back and forth of printing and collapsing until you hit the bottom. Zimbabwe and Iraq are still semi-functional states.

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  14. Hehehehe comforting aint it..... I'm sure of you do some DD there's language some where in the Fed Registry that says they can do it, actually they are pilfering the Fed Retirment Fund already when they hit the debt ceiling, you know the thing that gets raised but doesn't necessarily raise the debt.. hehehehe too funny! 401k's are a given for IOU's but as you point out when reserve status is lost all bets are off!

    What a wonderful world we live in!!!

    Speaking of cutting pensions.......

    http://www.cyniconomics.com/2013/07/20/now-that-detroits-gone-bust-is-your-city-next/

    but this ones better.......

    http://www.cyniconomics.com/2013/09/26/detroits-bankruptcy-postmortem-the-worms-keep-slithering-out/

    What's better than that!!!

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  15. Fed’s Evans: Taper may be delayed until early 2014 Marketwatch headline...As Kli states this fed hopium will end someday but not someday soon
    Picture of Real Taper,
    http://akrainforest10.pbworks.com/f/1271288592/tapir1.jpg

    ISR and ZLCS treating me well...buying into, scaling into GALE...

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  16. What a farce! Of course we all know they will increase the debt limit. And if we have a takeover of our 401ks, they can keep this Ponzi going for a loooong time, I'm afraid.

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  17. ZLCS is knocking the cover off the ball today.

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    1. I was adding when it was above the 20 and 50 sma...October is supposed to be a big month for them...maybe 1.50pps?

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    2. I still have my initial position and I'm thrilled to see it recovering--close to even now. My wife & I are still busy dealing with the aftermath of her mother's death. So, the casino here has been on hold for me.
      Recently, my wife went thru some of her mother's things and found a pile of "junk silver" coins. I have to go thru them with my coin book, but I doubt there are any hidden treasures. Still, I was amazed she had them, lived in my house for 3 years, and never said a thing.

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    3. Doc,
      Please accept my condolences for all in your family. Peace! Family is much bigger than any casino will ever be..My prayers are with you...take care

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  18. What I don't understand is that if there will be a new currency/reset, and this is known by the PTB and is the plan, then why is retaining the petrodollar so important? Won't this be replaced anyway? I understand this allows us to print and prop up the system, but why bother. Is it just to delay the process in order to lay down the groundwork and create the new system?

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