Tuesday, September 17, 2013

WHAT HAPPENS.....

if you throw a party and no one comes?  What happens if you tell the masses that "things" are getting better and they don't get better? What happens if you tell people housing is getting better but interest rates are going to go up just one percent and your buyers dry up overnight because they can't afford the monthly payments on a house they have no business buying in the first place? What happens when you keep running deficit government spending, while misallocating precious future resources to maintain the system that has put us on the edge of the financial cliff? What happens when you tell a public that we must invade another country for dubious reasons and NO one believes you, even though your media repeats your talking points incessantly for several weeks? What happens when you are told your economy is healing and jobs are being created and you find out that 90% of the jobs are part-time? 

You get the point......people stop believing ANYTHING you tell them.......and then they stop buying the CON. In fact they lose CONfidence. This little word is what holds EVERYTHING together and it has been the target of a multitude of efforts made by the central planners. Without CONfidence we don't have a fiat based global currency system with the "dollar" as THE reserve currency. It allows us to purchase our natural resources abroad at amazingly low prices relative to what the dollar represents. The dollar is losing the battle and gold and silver ARE the canary in the coal mine that has to be controlled and not allowed to sing. Its why you are seeing articles regarding the inventory of the actual metals disappearing in the COMEX and bullion banks. They have to use actual bullion to prop up the manipulation and that bullion leaking East is NOT coming back. Its why Germany cannot get even a portion of their gold we have for SEVEN YEARS. Its all one big CON. Does it matter if its a CON if you can play the game with them and make money?  That is a very dangerous game to play and one that most likely YOU lose in the end. After all, swimming with sharks usually results in the smallest shark becoming the bait. Right now the retail sharks are about gone and the small hedge sharks are close behind on the casualty list.

As many astute market watchers have duly noted we are entering into the end times of the game and this is where the game becomes very dangerous. Holders of physical metal will have the advantage and if the system somehow muddles through the miners will have monstrous moves up. Tomorrow will mark another milestone in the CONfidence game and they will paint a picture of an improving economy that is highlighted by the Fed's ability to taper....but of course that is just a picture that is being painted for the CON. We should see a significant pullback in the market soon, perhaps even tomorrow and as we noted a couple of months ago when the market pulled back, the miners started seeing inflows of cash. Enjoy the game and I will hopefully get to pop in over the next few days and may have a new post at the end of the week....gl and make sure to thank your masters for the past few years of "bread and circus"....I hope you used your time wisely.









74 comments:

  1. Here they go...with BB speaking tomorrow, what did we expect?

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  2. ben will give 10 billion and reaffirm his commitment to keeping interest rates low for the foreseeable future. GL with that as more easing will be necessary as the bond market convulses.... housing is in trouble so MBS will be maintained....its getting very tenuous now... I look for gold to get slapped but turn up within the next few days for its next higher high to be set ....same with miners ....a little more to the downside could occur but we are close to the near term bottom....SSRI has a gap to still fill but most can call it a bottom here.....gl

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  4. Long time, no post, extremely busy with work and travels.

    Anyway, at this point, I'm pretty convinced with some of my earlier predictions that we'll just continue to muddle along, possibly for years and years. I simply do not see any imminent collapse of any kind, the can has been kicked again, successfully, by the CBs. The Fleckensteins, Fabers, Jim Willies, and other doomers have been dead wrong, not just about this year, but the last few years. At some point, they'll be right, just like a broken clock is twice a day, but anyone following their advice risks going broke or missing out on some huge money making opportunities.

    That's my humble opinion. As for the markets, I think we're pretty close to a top for this leg of the bull market, courtesy of cheap money, and we'll most likely visit the 200 dma on the S&P before the year is out. The market then resumes its uptrend in 2014.

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    1. hope your right bud... not .observing the law of nature and mathematics will be a great feat but unfortunately I am afraid all of us will pay a dear price for the bread and circuses we have enjoyed.....but again....maybe that is the system we really deserve. Malinvestment and misallocation of resources never ends well for any empire.....so gl

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    2. as far as the "dormers" you have mentioned, there are a myriad more that can join that list....and yes you are welcome to label them "all wrong" but i noticed you were nowhere to be found when a multitude of miners had doubled off their recent bottoms and gold and silver had bounced nicely....I was sure you would resurface near the bottom of their correction.

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    3. Bud,
      I too hope your right for the sake of the many and not of the few that are the rapists, however all anecdotal evidence is pointing towards a direction that is hardly favorable to the many...
      Even your garden variety ambulance chaser would concede the "facts" as they currently stand is not favorable to say the least. As Kli has pointed out the "CON" is out and even the uninformed are getting it to some extent as the BS they are being fed does not equate to the reality they are living in! There are thousands of examples I could post but just look at the reaction over Obama care all the dope's that supported it are now realizing they were duped, hehehehe.... Even Buffet was out spoken about it yesterday and said ditch the whole thing! Never mind the blatant lawlessness coming out of DC.... It is being noticed by many more than the MSM is letting onto. Did you see that POTUS waived the law that forbids arming known terrorist groups, of our making may I add and our declared enemy's, didn't go unnoticed by many where I live since you used to be able to see the towers from where I live on a clear day.... Yet they want to disarm the lawabiding public....How do you reconcile that? How is it the greatest military in the world with 850 bases all around the globe can let one of the top naval bases get over run by a nut with a shotgun? A fkn gun free zone????? Think people don't notice or why Jumping John still walks free, think people don't notice??? Anyway I hope your right about TPTB can keep the "Bread & Circus" going for along time but unfortunately it can't happen not because they are not crafty and powerful but mathematics is the universal law and as with all laws of nature it must be obeyed..... Still hope you right though because to many good people are going to get fked when all is said and done!

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  5. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ten-real-reasons-stock-market-131045986.html

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  6. MarketWatch's Mark Hulbert saying Oct. is worst month for gold (-.9% avg) over the last 10 yrs. Big fight @1300 today; let's see if it has a flash crash during the lunch hr. on light volume.

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  7. something is up with OXGN...small float, news pending? Come on P Joe what is the scoop...

    I do see that another Ovarian cancer drug didn't produce the topline results so many OXGN is only came in town...beware of this one and keep tight stop if you play..

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    1. well, it's looking like classic pump dump...

      Jesus this market is filthy..

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  8. Think of the potential squeeze on gold if there's no taper... It looks likely but remember nobody knows what happens next.

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    1. great call hubs...just saw this

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    2. Hahah thanks, was a pleasant surprise :)

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  9. Dollar down and gold down..... don't like that.

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  10. Well now that's a hell of a spike in the yellow stuff.... Hope you took advantage of Apmex's sale price yesterday hehehehehe

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    1. Tom, been buying the Ag and Au phyzz that last two weeks. I thought I bought to early but it looks good now. Even got my mother in law buying the phyzz. She bought a nice portion last night. They have to print or it all goes to help! Gl all...

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    2. Rudy did you catch the new poll out on Di Blaiso v Lhota???? Holy Smokes, that's all I got to say...

      http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2013/09/de-blasio-crushing-lhota-in-first-poll.html

      btw: APMEX has 10oz Morgan Silver bars premium @ .89 cent over spot any quanity!

      No I don't get a commish just like a good bargain every now and again..... hehehehe

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    3. I did see that poll. I just figured since there has not been a democrat in 20 years that DiBlasio would have his work cut out for him. I expect the vote to be a lot closer. But I have been wrong before.

      Keep up the good work on the phyzz deals, I have A nice stash of cash to put to work. Time is running out on the clearance deals. Glad the metals corrected to pick up some more cheaply!

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  11. Seems like Sinclair is right, QE forever.

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  12. here's a real tapir
    http://digitaldeconstruction.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Tapir.jpg

    these money chemists are not giving up until they create a monster...

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  13. Well well well.....first I think a shoutout to Silver is King who called the NO TAPER .....and a warning again to anyone that believes this pig is fixed. ...Its "fixed" alright but not in the way they are promoting. To NOT taper signals some very serious underlying problems that many of us here are well aware of. I will repeat...the PM "trade" is the least of our worries.....and I suspect that many "doomers' will unfortunately be vindicated as we enter 2014.....gl all

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  14. Squeeeeeezeeeeeeeee hehehehe perfect.

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  15. MSM person: Well, when will you start tapering?
    Ben: Let me be as clear as possible - when you least expect it. There is no reason it has to be on an FOMC meeting date.

    Hehehehe

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  16. That EXK chart is something else. Filled the gap and ran up. Must must must remember almost all gaps fill!

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  17. Just noticed the dollar broke 80.50...

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  18. Highest volume in history in GDX is something I read just now.

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  19. This is why I NEVER short the PMs no matter how much I'm tempted. Budfox, the Markets are not the economy. Right now, I am going with M.Armstrong who understands the global situation and predicts the BIG comes Oct. '15 but warns to be out before that date. Honestly, you couldn't make this stuff up; it's really scary.

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    1. FED may have to act to save the dollar at that point sister. Keep your eye on the dollar

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  20. Oops, the BIG flush/ensuing chaos. GL everyone and once again, thanks to our leader who allows us to watch in awe and discuss this historical time.

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  21. Sister, I've known for some time now that Wall St and Main St are completely divorced from each other. However, it's also a bad idea to try to fight the Fed, as we once again found out today. So, I find it more productive to look for money making opportunities in this casino and roll the dice, instead of going short or getting stuck in losing trades. I'm also suffering from doom-fatigue, waited for the STHF for about 4 years, and then earlier this year I just gave up. I think it's somewhat silly to put specific time tables on various collapse scenarios, such as next month or next year, because no one can possibly make such a prediction for the future. So, I no longer worry about it. Just enjoy life, prep as best as I can, and hope for the best. For all I know, nothing major will happen in my lifetime, so why waste time waiting for bad things to happen?

    Kli, as for the miners, if you timed the bottom perfectly, and then exited after they doubled, then sure, you made out nicely. How many people do you think pulled that off? My guess, most folks who stayed in that trade are still underwater by a large margin and need for at least a couple more doubles before they can break even, let alone turn a profit. I'm completely at peace with my decision to dump my miners last year and have more than made up my losses by just riding the general market. It would be crazy to enter the market at these levels or short it, so I'm mostly cash and staying out for now.

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    1. anyone that timed the miners at the "bottom" is either a liar or lucky.....by that I mean they may have bought at the bottom or made a trade but a big trader averages in as the "bottoms" are made. I am not that person. I will stay long and trade around my core. Livermore once said and i paraphrase that over and over and over the same thing will occur because human behavior will trump human intelligence and this will happen in all aspects of trading the casino....gl bud.....good "bottom" call this am..... now get back to your job. and best wishes to you.

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    2. BTW bud....I hope that no one is "waiting for the STHF" as you stated above.....most "doomers" that I follow don't WANT hell.... they are trying to alert the sheep to get out of the casino. You are welcome to stay in the casino and play it anyway you wish just as I am....but warning people to stay out of it is prudent and conservative IMHO. As far as the FED is concerned I relish the game of the FED vs Nature.....it is fascinating. I wonder who will win?

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    3. No you don't. You know who will win.

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    4. CONGRATS SiK on your NO taper call..... More hijinx ahead so stay tuned.....this is end game stuff now my friend

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  22. I spoke at length today with an old contact that has many people in the PM market and he said it was amazing how many had choked and puked up their positions in spite of believing the whole system is a ponzu......he said it was amazing how many capitulated miners and PMs......He used to advise Eric King and helped him start his sight so he knows a lot of people in the game..........

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  23. None of this BS matters. Technically, you've been right for 4-5 years now, Fleckenstein for 15-20, Faber and Ron Paul for 30-40 years, you get the picture. Bottom line, the US is the big dog, the sheriff, and the message to the rest of the world is "either use USD to buy oil, or die". Yeah, we're hearing little noises here and there about BRIC nations coming up with dollar alternatives, but the petrodollar isn't going away anytime soon. That's why they can keep repeating this QE-forever crap for a long time, mathematics and nature be damned.

    I'll make a bet right now, that the next move will actually be an increase, to 100 billion/month or more, especially if China, Russia, Japan, etc decide to unload their USTs. The Fed will buy it all.

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    1. and I'll bet that if that occurs which it may very well happen then the result will be even less bang for the buck. velocity of money is their goal and ANY hint at tapering is being now viewed as a bond market sell and that is a TRUE Catch 22 for the Fed....so yes they had better be ready to go ballistic on QE or their Bond market becomes their anchor they get hung with. This is going to create more uncertainty in the market and you had better prepare for the outcome of an increasingly larger QE.....OR.....they do pull the plug

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    2. BTW Bud the reserve currency status is already lost. You need to pay attention. Russia/China/Japan/Brazil swap arrangements are ALREADY in place. Your conclusion regarding the Dollar holding onto its status is in the rear view mirror. Within another year it will be a cascade event that closes the door on the illusion the dollar is the reserve currency. They're rigging the gold price and getting cleaned on the bullion back end.....you give the Fed too much credit in this particular arena of endeavor......Don't EVER believe for one moment they aren't preparing for this well in advance.

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    3. I agree with you both. The next move will be to increase QE although not sure by how much. My guess is that they would overshoot to avoid having to go back to the well again so quickly, if ever, depending on whether it all collapses before they need to do it again.

      Also, they've been capping PM prices and they are at it again, just this morning, absorbing the buys in silver between $23.00 and $23.15 and gold in the low to mid $1,360's and will smash them down again soon enough. I've seen this movie too many times. They will lose control of PM prices when physical is no longer available.

      It was Volcker who regretted not capping the gold price back in 1973 so this time, they've got that covered.

      http://www.gata.org/node/10926

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  24. I was in the 'no taper' camp, but to be honest I'm still surprised to some extent with the decision. The FED was in the middle of a poker game…and all they had was a pair of 2s. Now we all know that’s a very poor hand, but as long as it’s concealed, you might bluff your way through some victories. The illusion of having a good hand, the idea that they can taper because things are getting better, has vanished. Our community here knew they had a pair of 2s, and most people out there think so as well, but others are fooled, and the sheer fact that nobody REALLY knew maintained some CONfidence in the hand. Coming right out and saying we need to continue full QE is essentially turning over those cards for everyone to see, here you go, yeah we’ve got nothing. They opened the kimono…and there’s nothing but a withered, malnutritioned frame. The market had priced some taper in, why not follow through!? Even a taper of $5B would’ve saved face and retained some credibility.

    I think there are 2 possibilities: There were too many investors positioned short and they wanted to tear their heads off, ‘teach’ them a lesson and keep the market in the dark…which means they’ll taper at some unexpected time in the next month or two. So a slow death as they pull away the punch bowl. OR they had no intention of tapering, in fact (as others have suggested) they may escalate QE just to keep the foundation from crumbling. In this scenario, tapering would’ve been a disaster for the economy/market, especially when they would’ve ramped it right back up before year end. Either way, we’re screwed, and the only thing standing between us and the dark ages is a plug with Ben’s hand on it…when he pulls it out, you better have your flashlights handy.

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  25. Really shaking the weak longs out of MUX today. 2 to 3% swings all day.

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    1. MUX has been very volatile the past couple weeks. Wonder what's up.

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  26. Looks like the boys are pissed someone made some change in miners yesterday..

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  27. big move in PMs yesterday being digested and MOMOs getting shaken. look for higher low to be established for resumption of an intermediate uptrend.

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    1. Agree with your logic but we all know the PMs don't trade based on any logic. Today's action with metals being held in check makes me think they are capping and will then slam down. I would think we'd see a continuation of yesterday's activity in PMs given the nature of the Fed's actions. The fact that there is no follow through makes me think we are back to the same games.

      If PM prices don't beginto move up tomorrow/Sunday night/Monday, I'll be expecting a smack down.

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    2. Opex next week in metals, so your thinking seems to have some legs...the miners got knocked down even as metals rose today...that doesn't bode well..

      My CYCC buy just paid off in big way this afternoon...

      Still holding MSTX, strange beast it is...but it's cash value is .50c and they are the only player in phase 3 sickle cell treatment...trying to get a double from current pps...

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  28. the real war on gold will be 1550 area and it should be one bloody battle.....the rest is all for show

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  29. GDX looks to be retesting the 50 it retook yesterday. Held for now.

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  30. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-19/system-world-infographic

    Pulled from the above.....

    To do so, stop being a sheep.

    The most revolutionary act you can commit internally is to take personal responsibility for every aspect of your own life and to live consciously as much as possible. Shed your addictions, swear off soma and start self-actualizing.

    The most revolutionary act you can commit externally is to start your own business (even one on the side) and to become financially unleveraged, literate and independent.

    Put a price on your fealty. A price not in monetary terms, but ethical ones. From now on loyalty is not something you unquestioningly surrender as an accident of birth, skin color or creed. Patriotism is now obsolete. You will no longer pledge into a corrupt system – if somebody or some thing wants your loyalty, they’ll have to earn it.

    From there you help others do the same and one by one, cell by cell, larger groups of the sheep go into self-imposed exile from the herd.

    If enough people can do this, (and can resist the temptations of being co-opted), then The System will eventually lose all relevancy and implode. This will probably take about 20 to 40 years to unfold and in the meantime there will be a strong, counter-evolutionary trend toward authoritarianism / totalitarianism (Bertrand Gross’ Friendly Fascism), collectivism and kleptocratic faux-capitalist brand socialism (none of which is to be confused with genuine real-world or virtual community.)

    There is a long dark period ahead to slog through, are you up for it?

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  31. Taken the wind out of our sails in a hurry today.

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    1. You WILL cough up your miner shares and get out of this sector....... WE COMMAND YOU....hehehhehehe......hey...it works!

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    2. Almost sold some covered calls yesterday... argh :)

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    3. No surprise. The capping action yesterday looked like the same pattern we've seen so many times in the past. They won't let the PMs gain any momentum.

      Also, today is quad witching for stocks and next week Opex in metals (per honest above) so we have to wait a bit longer. Good time to buy phyzz though.

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    4. It is extermely frustrating action as a few simple words "We'll taper maybe... in (insert following month)." can tank the metals.

      BUT we all are used to this action. Best course is to avoid leverage with metals unless you're trading on very short time spans. I am speaking from experience in getting my ass handed to me more than once doing that. All stock now, no options unless selling covered calls.

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    5. They are in a Catch 22 here and the real economy is flagging badly now. Obama care is an anchor and no where to go there. Also watch for a surprise in the Fed chair announcement......something is up and it could be Bernanke is going to get renominated....hehehehe.....watch out for THAT surprise.

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    6. Hubs

      What no more options? What's the world coming to when they won't let us little guys have some fun......

      btw: gave um up when little Timmy came to town, got tired of getting reamed plus your better off going to Vegas and play the wheel, better odds and you get free adult beverages!

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    7. Kli it's funny you mention benny getting nominated again as I've been thinking along the same lines. Obama may have to backtrack on him :)

      Tom haha I know! I've rarely done well with options. I mean when you hit on them you kill it but I've lost much more than I've won sadly. Hell on this last miner run-up I played options towards the end of it and only made about 15% more than I would have just holding my stock. That 15% is not worth the stress to me personally, and of course if you time it perfectly you'll get MUCH more but... good luck with that :)

      Hell even Vegas is getting crappy. Last time I went it took a waitress almost an hour each time to bring me a drink. Finally wised up and if I wanted to get buzzed I would just go to a bar with video poker and milk that and make friends with the bartender. You can make $20 last a long time if you know what you're doing :)

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  32. Cycc clean double...Jumped into ABIO on volume 20/50 sma below...no dilution forthcoming...

    ZLCS getting some bids today also...

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    1. Also might be worth to throw some chump change into FNMA...bounced off 20sma, butting heads with 50 on daily, volume doubled off 21 day avg. just below 360 on daily....risk reward looks good...
      http://s15.postimg.org/8zx2oexqz/fnma_9_20.png

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    2. you're on a roll chuck.........congrats

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    3. Thanks Kli, good to be lucky...though I bought into CORN at 34.90 and eating it today...so some victories, some defeats...

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  33. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p10693430668&a=241629129&listNum=1

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  34. http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/us-commentary/26374-bernanke-us-economy-is-a-ponzi-scheme?tmpl=component&print=1&page=

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  35. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/golds-big-moves-are-here-to-stay-2013-09-20?dist=beforebell

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  36. And if there was any doubt about the oligarchy: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/forbes-calls-goldman-ceo-holier-than-mother-teresa-20130920
    Surprised Matt Taibbi has been left to spread the Truth.

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  37. I've been reading your site for probably 2 years. The video " Law abiding angry whatever" is too far, you've lost your head dude. When November comes how can you be serious with anyone?

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    1. information is put up for "your" own filters "dude".......Just because I put it up doesn't always mean I agree 100%.....its just "food for thought".....something you may be lacking in your diet

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    2. LOL! Come on Man!!!! Reading for two years and that's the vid that got to ya! Not for nothing but some of that footage came from that tin foil hat looney Governor Ventura's show.... Which by the way now looks more like a "real" reality show.... So much for him being a nut case huh! Keep in mind, other then the time frame and possible motive of our trustworthy Lords, every thing mentioned is factual....... bawwwaaaaa!

      btw: It's never wise to poke the bear!

      http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-22/mortar-shell-hits-russian-embassy-damascus-three-diplomats-wounded

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  38. Fewer and fewer stocks participating in the rallies & we know what that means. Also with GS which as we all know is not really a bank, is the Dow now irrelevant?

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  39. John..


    you are wrong,,,,I already saw the vid kil posted ....I saw it at a other site

    to call out kil for the post.......LOL

    the cat is already out of the bag


    so I will call it what it is,,

    you are a HACK

    paladin






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