Tuesday, October 22, 2013

ALPHA POWER

The Law of Nature makes it clear that the Alpha member of a species will dominate the social hierarchy. The market will also obey the Law of Nature and its Alpha currency.....gold. Gold and silver are real money and you will find NO evidence in history of a fiat currency surviving. They all have a finite existence and Gold and silver have always been real money, no matter how hard the fiat system tries to contain them. In fact, the fiat masters know this principle very well, and have always held massive quantities of metals in reserve.....as they still do today. When is the dominant beast of the market going to reassert itself is only speculation now, but its arrival is definite and denial is a fool's game. You may believe as some of you certainly have a right to believe, that the Cabal can almost indefinitely postpone this showdown, but we are talking a very small time in the overall scheme of time before the Law of Inevitability takes over. Just as a Beta male understands that he can only step within a specific range the Cabal knows the limits of their game with Nature and always has their contingencies carefully planned for the Day of Reckoning. Only the lowest members of the feeding order will play within the range of Nature's final cleaning. The weakest and most vulnerable will reap the wind.
Time is now your enemy if you are in that category and if you have used your time wisely, then time may become your friend. One thing is certain, you only control a limited amount of variables and life's precious resources were never yours only. Enjoy the fruits and be sure to share. 

Metals may still be in the process of making a higher low ......or they may just be trying to shake out the last of the stubborn long leaves. Maybe Budfox will get his sub-1000 gold. I hope so from a selfish standpoint but if you watch the Rickards video below, you will see what I believe that number would entail. Keep in mind....NO ONE outside of the cabal......and maybe even the cabal doesn't know when the wind changes and blows an ill wind for the unprepared......its inevitable. watch 1365 and have a great Autumn.......Winter is coming and nothing will stop it. gl



66 comments:

  1. http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/10/23_60-Year_Market_Veteran_Says_US_Is_Within_Months_Of_Collapse.html

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  2. so Jim Rickards has a new book out soon..

    he stole my line..

    this is the death of money

    LOL....maybe they are watching this site

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  3. Well the CAT's out of the bag....

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-23/cat-slaughtered-epic-q3-revenue-earnings-miss-and-guidance-cut-sees-good-deal-uncert

    Sorry not very original but it fits the circumstances...

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  4. yeah tom it looks like things aren't purrrring along.......hard to hide a supercycle collapse

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  5. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RBY&p=W&yr=12&mn=0&dy=0&id=p99807236228&a=295883397&listNum=1

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  6. this one never quit running..........

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SBGL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p64041534385&a=305668401&listNum=1

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  7. If fiat became worthless overnight, wouldn't they just print a new currency? I can't see people carrying gold and silver coins in their purse/wallet.

    Regardless of how it ends, they will still need a method of convincing the serfs to build their mansions, mega-yachts and skyscrapers.

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  8. Instead of plastic you will need a gold. silver or platinum credit cards made out of the real stuff. Hehehe

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  9. The new currency would something to support it--ie., something that would give people real confidence. It will likely be backed by a combination of things: Gold, Oil, basket of currencies, etc.

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    Replies
    1. quite possible but more directly to jays point....gold and silver will NOT be used as a medium of exchange and there will always be fiat/digital currency .......these are broken systems because they are inherently designed to be destroyed..........they are fiat.....we are not going back to the stoneage........whatever mess we get into there will be an evolutionary outcome.............hopefully

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    2. Why do they prefer forcing us to use currency rather than gold/silver? As we've seen over the course of the last year, gold can be manipulated just as easy as dollar.

      Is it due to convenience? Tapping a few keystrokes on a keyboard is a lot easier than digging a couple miles under the earth.

      Also, what's the purpose of destruction and pain? How does this help the human race? I think many of us want to leave the world a better place for our children. Why would the elites want anything different?

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    3. they fight gold for a number of reasons. One is that its price acceleration sends red flags out there is a debasement of the currency ie dollar. IF you can maintan a reserve status then you can literally print UNLIMITED dollars.......its a grand racket.......gold only serves as a brake tapping when it backs a currency because as you noted they can manipulate that too. But why have a brake when you can put on the after burners when needed.... CONfidence is the final brick in the entire wall of scam.....gold cannot be a challenge to fiat and maintain CONfidence in the public and sovereign players. Of course this will all unwind, but like Budfox VERY correctly points out there is the small matter of "time"..........they can buy a little time........but you can go broke if you're leveraged betting against them

      Delete
  10. I see your CAT results and give you Boeing, solid numbers across the board:

    http://seattletimes.com/html/businesstechnology/2022106510_boeingearningsxml.html

    The truth is, earnings are coming in mixed, they are company and sector specific in most cases, not the end of the world. But since Zerohedge always ignores anything positive, this gets lost amid all the doom noise. Gotta love those catchy phrases in the articles, too: "epic miss", "catastrophic guidance", "devastating revenues", etc. Hyperbole and fear-mongering at its best.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. sure.......they are Bud.....nothing like deferred earnings because of contractural/delivery delays on a white elephant of a pig of a plane.......and don't forget bud....those MIC outlays always are there to protect......hehehehe......Boeing is a pig and reflects nothing for the health of the consumer and business.......but you can dream

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    2. Bud - cut back on the drugs. Here is a huge dose of reality:

      Roughly one third of the S&P has reported earnings so far, with another third reporting in the next five days and almighty AAPL on deck Thursday evening, and if there is one word to describe what has happened so far, that word would be "ugly." The same word would be used to describe how Q4 is shaping up to be. And that word will be very a optimistic prediction of what 2013 will bring unless a major catalyst develops that pushes Congress to resolve the fiscal cliff situation. So far that catalyst is missing. But going back to Q3 earnings, here is how Goldman's David Kostin summarizes events to date: "3Q reporting season is roughly one third finished. Two early conclusions: (1) Information Technology results have been startlingly weak with high-profile revenue disappointments by the four horsemen: MSFT, GOOG, IBM, and ORCL. (2) EPS guidance for 4Q has been overwhelmingly negative across all S&P 500 sectors with 18 of 20 firms lowering 4Q earnings guidance by a median of 5%. Analysts have lowered 4Q EPS estimates for stocks already reported by 0.4%. We expect further EPS cuts of 6% loom ahead.

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    3. Bullish on inland USA real estate, Bearish on Boeing surviving a FukU mishap.

      “The worst-case scenario could play out in death to billions of people. A true apocalypse,”

      http://rt.com/news/fukushima-operation-spent-fuel-618/

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    4. The World Nuclear Report, released in July 2013, said “the worst-case scenario” will require evacuation of up to 10 million people within a 250-kilometer radius of Fukushima, including a significant part of Tokyo.


      Although some experts are skeptical, TEPCO is confident the operation will be a success. Last year two fuel rods were successfully removed from the pool in a test operation, but back then rod assemblies were empty and posed a far smaller threat.
      i feel better now.....heheheheh

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    5. I have been reading about this too. Do you understand what they are trying to do??. They write that they are going to use a crane to remove these heavy rods, but they cannot be exposed to air. So are they just going to move them to a different spot within the same pool? If they lift them out of the water, do they have a limited amount of time to place them within a new pool? I can't quite conceptualize what they are doing?

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    6. Well since we are on the subject..........


      http://www.occuworld.org/news/366907

      http://www.theherald.com.au/story/1848433/the-ocean-is-broken/

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  11. here is an example of " i want my cake and eat it too".....hehehehhehe.......watta slime ball


    Alan Greenspan is out pitching his news book. We explained the miracle of revisionist history and questioned the sanity of anyone buying this 'guide to economic forecasting' earlier in the week, but in his appearance this morning on CNBC, the "maestro" did a great job explaining just how flawed his own logic was (without our help). He explains (sadly reflective of the current clairvoyance of Jim Bullard) that, speaking for himself and his FOMC colleagues, "all of us knew there was a bubble," though failing to admit to being the progenitor, "but we badly missed the timing." But, perhaps summing up the mantra of his ilk better than any other sentence, Greenspan concludes, "a bubble in and of itself does not give you a crisis..." adding, during a later Bloomberg TV clip, "I missed certain forecasts, you don’t apologize for that... We are not omniscient. I am a human being." ZH

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  12. Can't stand Mr. Greenjeans or watching his wife on NBC Nightly News spewing lie after lie. Let's face it--he's omniscient compared with the rest of us "little" people. In fact they DO know the timing.

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  13. Inlet, I think you are the one on drugs. AAPL will report earning next Monday, not this Thursday. MSFT and ORCL haven't even reported earnings yet, GOOG's revenues for Q3 2013 were up 12% from the same quarter in 2012, and IBM is a dying dinosaur and not a reflection of any particular trend. Whatever you're quoting is full of inaccuracies. Is that from last year or something?

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  14. bottom line is this bud.....there are three things to look at first.......JOBS....JOBS and finally JOBS. Instead of an expanding GDP we are getting a contracting GDP......albeit we have had an expanding GDP promised for the past three years.......We printed 17 Trillion just for an illusion of growth.........and we will print another 17 Trillion to keep from collapsing during the next two years. but I have no problem with the hope........me too......i hope....btw..........go ahead and dissect the JOBS ....now that will draw some attention....

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  15. "but we badly missed the timing."

    hohoho, funny man.

    How come the vast majority of average Americans saw the bubble decades before Greenspan? Is Greenspan's new book going to be in the comedy section of amazon?

    hohoho hehehe

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    Replies
    1. I thought his comment ....."i am a human" was more telling......my reply would have been.....prove it

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  16. Well stuff like this ain't going to help Boeing's replacement assumptions for Commercial AC.....

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/23/us-usairways-results-idUSBRE99M0GQ20131023

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  17. 'White Hat' Hackers Expose Flaws of U.S. Stock Market

    http://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/2013/10/22/white-hat-hackers-expose-cyber-flaws-us-stock-market/

    These guys should apply to Goldman where it's legal! :)

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  18. Here's the article from which Inlet quoted above:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-21/q3-earnings-season-date-summary-ugly-and-getting-worse

    It's from Oct 21, 2012, just as I suspected. Now, I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and call this an honest mistake, and not a disingenuous attempt to discredit me with an old article, and trying to pass it off as new.

    In a way, I'm glad you did this because we get see the views expressed at the time, fast forward one year, and well, any predictions of doom and gloom very greatly exaggerated. The truth is, no one can predict the future.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. well bud.......if you are going to use that logic,,,,,,then perhaps you may want to see what he is predicting now......hehehhehehe ........he's VERY bullish......hehehehhehehe......circular logic?

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    2. How much time did iBud waste checking this out??? Hehee. 2 funny, because it describes 2013 3rd qtr except 2013 is worse as tech companies and retailers stink the place up. If not for financial companies we might see down earnings (it is close right now) for SnP 500.

      "Excluding Finance, total earnings growth for the companies that have reported falls in the negative category – down -6.2%. This is weak performance than what we have seen from the same group of companies in Q2 and the 4-quarter average."

      Guidance is uninspiring so Q4 estimates are expected to decline.

      Delete
    3. Inlet, you provided a bogus quote from last year, when we're clearly talking about 2013 right now, and did not provide a link, it took me 30s to find it. Do a better job with fact checking from now on and make sure all of your quotes have an accompanying source. And as much as you may be rooting for a collapse, it's not gonna happen anytime soon.

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    4. bud....inlet is not rooting for a collapse... He and I fought like cats and dogs in 2008 over the collapse and how to trade it....... He actually was trading it long by using cycle swings on WMT......He usually took the optimistic side and I was a pessimist as usual.... Inlet knows very well what we are facing now.......

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    5. Yeah, I've tried to expand and be a long about 2 weeks out of a month (IWM) and short 2 weeks out of the month (inverse RWM) in my trading accounts using the 23TD cycle (some call it the lunar cycle). In investment accounts some commodities (I prefer silver to gold), some real estate. some fixed income for retirement income.

      I have my eyes on longer cycles and expect that we will get a substantial correction starting soon (bottom 7 years from 2009 bottom - (1981-1988-1995-2002-2009-2015)). Of course some claim there is even longer cycles and may be right. Now that 570 year cycle may have already started (power shifts west (US) to East (China)and back) and has been documented at least back thru the Roman empire (which BTW lasted about 570 years.

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  19. here's another "gold bug" hehehehhe


    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/10/23_World_Just_Witnessed_A_Stunning_Watershed_Moment_In_History.html

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  20. I'm cracking up reading these comments! I just got home from work, it's 9:45 pm, that's one reason earnings haven't collapsed. Companies are laying off/not hiring despite huge consolidation, M&A activity, and increasing global reach. I had an argument with a friend regarding Home Depot's earnings a short while back, I still remember it well. He kept nagging me that the economy & housing market was improving since HD's earnings were strong. So I explained to him that there used to be 10 medium sized hardware stores within driving distance of me, now there are two! Where do you think that business went? How about the global expansion. Let's say a company, like the one I work for which shall remain unnamed, tripled its sales in the past 10 years. Do you think our staff has tripled? Not only has it not tripled, it has barely increased. That's why earnings are up. Consolidation which is expected late in an economic cycle as it is the only way to grow, cost cutting, milking employees, technology advances, etc. Just don't tell me that the economy is improving please.

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  21. Earnings always beat estimates (last time less than 50% of S&P companies missed estimates was in ....1998.) Thats right in 2008 more than 50% beat estimates and yet the market dropped 50%. Revenues are missing more than earnings because they are much harder to game than earnings. Right now the CAPE p/e is 25, one of the highest in history, so betting that stocks go higher despite what the central banks are doing is a very low probability event. I consider the faith in the central banks the "hook" that keeps investors staying too long in the market.

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  22. This'll cheer you up Kli, it's about time I posted a good story around here:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-23/mark-spitznagel-warns-todays-distorted-market-set-major-crash

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    Replies
    1. he must be a "gold bug" hehehehehe....... yes he is spot on, as he was in 08........but then there are many like and know we are swimming up stream in a river full of gators.

      Delete
  23. Bud in keeping with your glass half full theme here's a guy who's just killing it in this economy!

    http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/10/23/Facebooks-Zuckerberg-paid-record--22-billion

    However I'll beg he doesn't shop in Home Depot... hehehehe

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  24. It's things like this that won't help Home Depot and whoever is left in the home improvment industries......

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-24/ordinary-americans-priced-out-housing-institutional-purchases-hit-record-half-all-de

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  25. good read from Jesse

    http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2013/10/gold-daily-and-silver-weekly-charts_23.html

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  26. Quick note on the SVM daily chart.
    SVM has been rising and a gap was created. Yesterday, SVM sold off and the gap has been closed. Could SVM rocket higher today?? The metals are up so far this morning.
    Let's see.

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    Replies
    1. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SVM&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p59767175392&a=320718737&listNum=1

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  27. Sammy: You hit the nail on the head. There used to be 10 companies doing what we do in the Seattle area. Now there are 3.

    Out of the 3 that are left, 2 of them (including mine) shut down our American factories and moved everything to Taiwan/China.
    I'm basically being paid to outsource American jobs right now. I'm not proud of it, but I gotta put food on the table. It bothered me a lot at first, but after a few trips to Asia, I learned that they are just people like us. They want Mc Donalds, iPhones and cars just like us.

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  28. Oh Dear, this is not going to help Corporate Revenues/Earnings going forward......

    http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=225369

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  29. Jay, do you see any evidence that outsourcing jobs is slowing down?

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    Replies
    1. Doc, none at all. In fact, we are seeing an uptick from customers looking to switch to offshore.

      Price seems to be king these days. 20 years ago, it was quality.

      We can mark a job up 300% and still crush our competition with better pricing. For all those advocating a $15 minimum wage, thanks for the business!

      Delete
    2. Thanks!

      That Financial Sense radio show that I listen to seems to feel that jobs are coming back to the US. But obviously in your business they are not.

      Delete
  30. Jay,

    Since your doing that sort of thing, think you could outsource some State Governments? Why don't you start with the dolts in Albany and if it works, think about it you could be the next suckerberg :D

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  31. We've spent $3.7 Trillion on welfare in the last 5 yrs. and states contributed another $1 Trillion. 15% of young people not in school and not working (16-24). At the top of the news here over the last 2 days is BAC fine for fraud and announcing layoffs of at least 3,000 people which will negatively affect Charlotte. No chit! It's like they're saying poor BAC...sigh. Germany on the other hand, producing a record number of jobs. NSA needs to listen up! But back to trading, NBG a momo stock if anyone wants to watch; should fill gap at about $5.21 and right at a 50% fib if anyone's interested. As of now, this is a l-t hold for me. Only have 1,000 shares now tho.

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    Replies
    1. Sister: United Welfare States of America

      BTW. Germany ain't the only one booming. Philippines is growing 7% this year(Faster than China).

      Couple photos I took early last year:

      Makati City 1: http://i.imgur.com/43OzRHU.jpg
      Makati City 2: http://i.imgur.com/1cy95iq.jpg
      Manila Waterfront: http://i.imgur.com/7f79Aju.jpg


      Delete
  32. Doctrader - it is not just outsourcing, but automation (the US manufacturing is producing as much as any time in history). Think about what happened in agriculture over 2 centuries as machinery eliminated most of the jobs in agriculture. We went from about 70% of labor being employed in agriculture to well under 5% today. Or, consider mining - when Mine Worker Unions drove labor prices to high levels miners got replaced by heavy equipment. What took 100 miners to do in the 1930s can be done by 10 workers now with equipment (and equipment can work without sleep 24 hours a day 365 days a year and require no health insurance). These are only a couple of examples - in 1980 I worked at GM connecting all the islands of automation in an auto factory. Today it probably takes half as many man hours to build a car as in 1980 and that # will continue to decrease (as it will in most manufacturing). These jobs are gone for good and will never come back and as human capital becomes more expensive it will accelerate this process. Jobs are lacking in this economy because all the money companies spent on automation is being capitalized upon finally. Anyone who worked in installing automation the last 20 years knew this day was coming.

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  33. Doc,

    Watch "How its Made" on the Discovery Channel and you will see just what Inlet is speaking of also look at the amount of energy needed, especially in forging and then look at the price of oil and equate that to the price of the finished product.... I am also amazed at the folks that engineer all the manufacturing equipment.....

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  34. Since we were on the subject of Boeing think of the number of those people need in the drafting dept in the fifties and sixties that are replaced by one computer running CAD......

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    Replies
    1. Yikes! Don't say that Tom! I'm one of those folks that will be replaced. :)
      I'm not in CAD, but I work very closely with a lot of CAD folks.

      On the plus side, even with a 1 click "build me an jet airplane" button. Humans will still be needed to check things over. Unless of course the machines get sick of us. :P


      Delete
    2. Hmmm check things over ehh... Can you say lithium ion battery's......

      Delete
  35. Uh oh! Trouble with the Petro-Dollar??

    http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57608848/saudi-arabia-warns-u.s-that-policy-on-syria-iran-straining-decades-old-alliance/

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  36. This was the first sign of a potential problem...

    http://world.time.com/2013/10/18/saudi-arabia-rejects-seat-on-u-n-security-council-and-confuses-everyone/

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  37. Ooooo this is going to stir up some chit....

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/24/nsa-surveillance-world-leaders-calls

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  38. Inlet & Tom,

    I realize what you are saying. But, even with further automation, the machines (robots) themselves need to be built and maintained. The need to be controlled and monitored. Quality controls need to be done on the products that the machines build. If the machines can make superior products here in the US, more facilities, equipment, robots, etc. need to be built here in the US.
    So, although automation will be doing the major work, some trickle-down jobs (? better jobs?) for people should occur. Will there be enough jobs? Well, I know things look bleak.

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  39. Maintenance of these machines require levels of training not needed to do routine manufacturing tasks over and over and over. Probably most of the robotics will be controlled by PLCs (Programmed Logic Controllers) which are specialized computers - but they will need to be programmed and changed any time the product spec changes. So we are talking electricians and other skilled workers replacing 5-10 non-skilled workers. I expect we will continue to see the gap widen between skilled and non-skilled workers. For example there is a water treatment plant in Louisville, KY that went online this year that is run and controlled by the company from their home base in Pennsylvania (this is referred to running lights out). With continuous flow systems like this you are seeing more and more lights out operations..

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  40. Doc - any extra college graduates we can use to fix the Obamacare website. Hehehe.. Sounds like that should absorb a 40 year career. This is what happens when you turn a bunch of just graduated college people loose to design/write/implement a major system. Used to love watching the newly minted programmers with their Masters degrees in computer science screw things up. They could talk theory forever, but couldn't do crap.

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    Replies
    1. There is learning by doing--a complete immersion into the task at hand.
      Then there is book learning/theory with little if any actual, practical doing.

      Which is better? We are finding out.

      Delete
  41. a must....

    http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-10-24/greatest-most-relevant-speech-ever

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  42. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndshbH3qZ6Y

    Really, if you want to know about the undervaluation of gold, and have a good laugh, you gotta see this video.

    ReplyDelete