Wednesday, October 9, 2013

BEEP BEEP

Feel like Wylie? I do and I haven't hit bottom yet. Ya have ta hand it to da boyz.....they know how to hurt a guy. When you're in a crowded trade its bad enough when they crush you, but when you're in a trade that directly attacks the ponzi, then you've really unleashed some serious pain your way. Of course this just could be normal market forces only at play and from a macro view I just made a mistake and we are on a steady path to recovery. Either way market forces will eventually have to be observed.....or more simply.....the law of physics will be met. "For every action there is an opposite and equal reaction."

Just as the miners broke out last month, they were crushed again. Some look potentially constructive with POSSIBLE higher lows getting established....but many are setting near their previous lows or even lower. Its bloody and a few weeks ago I noted that gold could indeed establish a newer low before it began its long run up. We'll see what happens but this has cleared another group of leafs out of the trade already.

Back to the shutdown......only the top of the pyramid knows what the angle is but as each day goes by its becomes increasingly apparent this entire shutdown has someone pulling the strings of both sides to create at the very least, the illusion there are two sides involved "governing". There is one side for sure that will wind up losing and that is YOU.

 When the dust clears it "appears" there will be a "last minute" resolution and all will be saved. If this was the goal of the game to just show there is a "two-sided" democracy at work, then I suppose it is successful, but it just doesn't add up....so I am not sanguine about the "last minute" resolution scenario. I think they potentially have a darker motive in mind. Perhaps its to just provide enough noise to cover some terrible earnings and employment stats they don't want you to see. Maybe they want to consolidate the technocratic control of the Fed and Executive branch by showing you the "incompetence" of CONgress through their "intransigence". This would solidify the soft martial law evolution begun over a decade ago.

There could be an even darker motive and that is an unwinding of the bond market...bringing in true FEAR and blaming it on CONgress and unleashing the full power of the Fed's money printing to save the republic and the World further driving us into debt enslavement......a hole we can never dig out of......gl





53 comments:

  1. jobless claims jumped......get ready.....the whole show in DC is preparing you for MEGA QE coming

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    1. DOW up 200 pts already this morning as shutdown may be nearing it's end and as BOO HOO boy asks for short term raise of the debt limit...what's another trillion in debt or 2 or 3 or....Ponzi scheme on auto pilot.

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    2. All is good with the world. Boner and O'Bummer are gonna talk. Hehehe

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    3. And confidence is going to be completely restored.

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    4. hehehe.....no .....CONfidence will be restored...fixed it for you

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  2. It's easy for stars to align when you're controlling the light show with a projector from the ground. Definetely see QE at $100 billion coming, this COULD be a big thrust for PMs...maybe....

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  3. they can align the stars all they want but they can't make the cows come home....nature's laws are a bitch

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-10/back-school-pc-sales-collapse-worst-2008

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  4. people like to compare the 70s to today.....its a joke.....there's no comparison....there was NO deleveraging of our federal budget to even consider......there was plenty of room for them to increase rates at the end of the 70s to stop the stagflation that had crept into the economy....THERE is NO ROOM to increase interest rates today NONE.......a mortgage in the 70s was 7%.......today its half that......in the late 70s we moved mortgage rates up to 15% and higher......hehehehe can you imagine if we raised rates to the base of 7%..... we would implode.........WE led the the world in manufacturing........today China does...........forget it.....this rant is a waste of time

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    1. 7% would destroy the housing market. MAN there's just no way rates can go up. When the 30 was approaching 5% again things were looking bad. Isn't that nuts? 5% on a 30 year loan is historically an amazing deal and we can't even do that without imploding.

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    2. You forgot in the 70's there were JOBS!!!

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  5. Everybody, especially traders and hedgies, have been totally conditioned to QE to infinity. Which means everytime the lower Bollinger Band gets breached for even a day on the S&P, the algos slam it back up. With the trade heavily weighted on one side. They can't even slowly deflate, less a herd panic breaks the whole system. In order to even attempt to bring this back under control, something very big and long lasting has to come up that even Keynesian printing presses will not be effective against.

    As for gold, it is still a game of quietly allowing sovereign and public physical to be transferred to private hands.

    Cold and snowy winter, if you installed a solar system consider switches to battery backup if you get a bad storm.

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    1. get back in your cave Red.......I'm going long "bread and Circus"......hehehehe

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    2. BTW Red...any thots on why the bankers met with O

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    3. To end the standoff early, and get back to QE to infinity. Maybe throw a banker or two to mobs to sweeten the deal.

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  6. SVM doing better today. A decent looking doji was printed yesterday. Could a change in direction be coming??

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  7. Also in the 70s there were virtually NO derivatives now we have over 1.5 QUADRILLION and those babies will NOT be deleveraged

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  8. Sheesh even on a 300 point up day 2 of my 3 miners are red. Come on throw me a friggin bone here! ;)

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  9. Yes,...I was being facetious in the thread above. I was playing off of Inlet's comment.

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  10. Bots in overdrive. Dow goes to 18,000 but no money for jobs and did you notice bamcare not even being discussed all of a sudden? Shrug. Whatever happened to no taxation w/out representation? Bostonians sure have changed.

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  11. they want you out of the trade and they will try to destroy the psychology of the only true money....period....btw...it will work....but ultimately the East will say foch you......and you know who will be holding the bag.......the sovereign West......ie the taxpayers

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  12. OMG, looked this up due to an Armstrong article: http://www.hatch.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/releases?ID=bb7de6e5-a45f-4851-b17e-2c9c6dce972b Comments please. Here's what it sounds like to me--offload pensions, 401ks and transfer the jurisdiction to Treasury! Just like them to call it the SAFE act, what a euphemism! Sounds like they'll give annuities and no one will ever see his/her capital again. I am hoping ag. hope I have this wrong.

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  13. Scary stuff Sister, it's spiraling out of control.

    http://www.nationalseniorscouncil.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=89%3Aobama-begins-push-for-new-national-retirement-system

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  14. A recent hearing sponsored by the Treasury and Labor Departments marked the beginning of the Obama Administration’s effort to nationalize the nation’s pension system and to eliminate private retirement accounts including IRA’s and 401k plans, NSC is warning.

    The hearing, held in the Labor Department’s main auditorium, was monitored by NSC staff and featured a line up of left-wing activists including one representative of the AFL-CIO who advocated for more government regulation over private retirement accounts and even the establishment of government-sponsored annuities that would take the place of 401k plans.

    "This hearing was set up to explore why Americans are not saving as much for their retirement as they could," explains National Seniors Council National Director Robert Crone, "However, it is clear that this is the first step towards a government takeover. It feels just like the beginning of the debate over health care and we all know how that ended up."

    A representative of the liberal Pension Rights Center, Rebecca Davis, testified that the government needs to get involved because 401k plans and IRAs are unfair to poor people. She demanded the Obama administration set up a "government-sponsored program administered by the PBGC (the governments’ Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation)." She proclaimed that even "private annuities are problematic."

    Such "reforms" would effectively end private retirement accounts in America, Crone warns. "These people want the government to require that ultimately all Americans buy these government annuities instead of saving or investing on their own. The Government could then take these trillions of dollars and redistribute it through this new national retirement system."

    Deputy Treasury Secretary J. Mark Iwry, who presided over the hearing, is a long-time critic of 401k plans because he believes they benefit the rich. He also appears to be one of the Administration’s point man on this issue.

    "This whole issue is moving forward very quickly," warns Crone. "Already there is a bill requiring all businesses to automatically enroll their employees in IRA plans in which part of every employee’s paycheck would be automatically deducted and deposited into this account. If this passes, the government will be just one step away from being able to confiscate all these retirement accounts."

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  15. This subject has been widely discussed and is definitely coming in some form

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  16. Even Financial Sense had an article yesterday about potential bail-in's.

    I suspect that we are going to see these articles from time to time to "test the waters". Get Americans used to the subject. Then, a crisis will be created such their plans can be implemented without warning.

    It is almost laughable about their comments about Americans not saving enough for retirement. Many Americans can't even pay their bills, so how are they supposed to save for retirement?? Others are exiting the system or no longer purposely contributing to their retirement.

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  17. I posted over a month ago that the most effective move on PMs and gold would to post a very brief daily tail BELOW the hard low established in June......this would "clean out" the paper stops and algos.......so beware.....

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  18. Thanks guys. Isn't it convenient that there is about $14 Trillion in these retirement accounts? (Mine is getting smaller each day).

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  19. I empty mine every year now and put it towards debt of some sort. Everybody thinks I'm nuts :) But hell the interest savings along are a nice "gain" on it in my head.

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  20. It would show as a double bottom on the weekly and an provide a strong technical base from which to rally.......of course all crystal ball predictions are just that.....but I can hope....because it would be an area I would be adding to physical in

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    1. They are giving you a chance to get cheap physical on these paper slams, Kli.

      Hubz is on the right track, pay down high interest debt rather than gambling in future confiscation of your retirement.

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  21. Blue Horse Shoe does NOT like CGR.......

    Doc,

    Kinda hard to save for retirement when you're working part time..... NUTS!

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  22. Must resist urge to buy DUST puts... :)

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  23. Welcome back Red, you need to post more often. Your point regarding retirement accounts is well taken. I've saved a tidy sum in my 401k/IRAs, but do not expect to see all that money 25-30 years when I'll be able to withdraw from them. There are many ways in which they can tweak rules and laws, such that getting your money is either difficult or comes at a great cost. For instance, even if you have a million dollars, you can be forced to take out a fixed amount each year, and anything over that will be subject to heavy taxation. So, while technically you won't lose your account, that's just as bad, a soft form of confiscation.

    But it pi$$es me off that I have pay almost 40% in taxes and fees for any amount I take out now. This is my money and I've earned it, so I haven't been able to bite the bullet yet. I don't carry any high interest debt, so not even sure what I'd do with the money. For now, I'll let it sit there, and hope any such plans for retirement reform is at least a few more years away.

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    1. Policy makers since 2009 have instituted a policy of use it or lose it, QE to infinity. The hard part is where to allocate money that use to go to savings (bank accounts, IRAs, 401k) because those funds will be destroyed by confiscation either through QE stagflation or Cyprus bail in style. They want your savings in crap like NFLX, TSLA and AMZN so they can legally rip you off when the trade is fat enough, they don't want you to hold clear hard assets. The paper markets are completely controlled and rigged with the algos more aggressively involved in price controls and herding; the equity, bond and paper commodity markets are no longer capital markets based on supply and demand they are centrally planned and the imbalance is growing every day.

      Physical metals is only a small insurance, the rest is pretty basic like a place to live where your only worry is taxes and insurance and NOT the bank, water and food for a severe storm, back up heat or electricity for the same thing.

      I paid the 40% tax back in 2010 to cash out a portion of my retirement and bought a house and kept my 8 year old truck running.

      You have to define your current needs and wants especially if there is a series of resets and confiscation in the future of paper assets and entitlements.

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    2. Yup red you have noted your moves and were astute in your judgement of these rigged markets......keep you head down bud.....

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    3. Also budfox you were given a nice tax deduction for your contributions AND they grew tax free............you CANT have it both ways AND you knew the rules when you went in.

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    4. You know Bud a bird in hand is worth two in the bush! Something else to consider if your trying to justify having to eat the ten percent penalty if most or all is in a 401k if there is matching employer funds, free money, just work with the premise that those are the funds being applied to said penalty.... As Kli has pointed out you are going to have to pay your taxes BUT since you are a very astute investor I must assume your original principal, your contributions should have at least doubled, no matter how you look at it you should come out ahead of the game.....

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    5. yes tom.....the problem with Bud's premise is that it is NOT his money.....he entered into a contract with the government to receive a nice tax deduction "savings/retirement" plan. It was all spelled out clearly IF he read the law and I assume he did. NOW he is alarmed that "they" might "devalue" in the future but he wants his money without the taxes and penalties on it. In other words he trusted them THEN, but not now to carry through his government handout......that's right bud its a government HANDOUT that you took......so you want to make rules that you can change JUST LIKE THEY DO. Of course bud, you've always thought that you were independent from the gov but now your reality is telling you differently and you're angry as you stated above......Be angry at yourself bud.....when you look around a room and you can't decide who the sucker is then its probably you. Btw your confidence in your masters carrying your paper profits for several more yours is quite commendable and I hope you have success with that paradigm also....OF COURSE that premise is much different than your dilemma with your IRA.......gl bud.......btw bud never ever forget COUNTERPARTY risks when investing.

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    6. I don't know what Bud's deal is but he is not in the minority in his thinking. It is your money IRA/401k with or without matching funds. If invested properly the 10% penalty should be absorbed and yes there's a tax bill but had one not done so those earnings would have been taxed anyway. Now if one takes a lump sum well that may push one into a different bracket BUT even with all that said as I have pointed out to friends and family alike "A bird in hand is worth two in the bush" unless your comfortable with an IOU from the treasury......

      btw: Bud's not serious IMHO do to his following statement: "I've saved a tidy sum in my 401k/IRAs, but do not expect to see all that money 25-30 years when I'll be able to withdraw from them."

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    7. Yes I basically looked at it as 10% penalty. Because the rest would have to be paid regardless. Anybody that is scared of losing 10% obviously has no idea what they're even doing with funds anyway as I see it. That's a pittance for what is most the time a matched contribution aka and automatic double! GET IT WHILE YOU CAN. We all know social security isn't going to be there for us, why do you think 401ks will be?

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    8. P.S. Bud I respect your opinions and glad you post here honestly. I just think it's arrogant to expect to time these moves perfectly. Ironic thing is I'm still in the casino as well so maybe I should just shut my yap. But please continue posting. I know we give you hard time but it's good to have a differing opinion.

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  24. Well well well.......we have another conspiracy theorist that Budfox can dismantle because he dared to be interviewed by Eric King.....never mind what he says....just toss him on the heap or more likely not read it........

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/10/11_Art_Cashin_-_Danger_For_The_US_%26_Strange_Happenings_In_Gold.html

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  25. http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/10/12_Art_Cashin.html

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  26. http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_FOOD_STAMPS_OUTAGE?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2013-10-12-16-21-17

    Just a "Glitch" but.........

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  27. Just as a Saturday surprise, and an "Obama trump card", EBT cards not being accepted in several States... I called a couple of stores in Louisiana and telephone operators said it was due to government shutdown. Zerohedge reports it as a computer glitch. Free S#$t army gonna be pissed come Monday..

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  28. Interesting that this is happening on a 3 day weekend that the banks will be closed on Monday. And of all things Columbus day. The holiday that the liberals claim that the white European nation invaded America.

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  29. I will continue to remind all of you this is not a drill....i do not post these warnings for my "health".....the system is broken and when it reveals itself fully some form of chaos will be involved.....what it will entail will be up to them. When they pull the pin on the market then you can full expect them most peeps possible to lose. Its always been so.

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  30. To your point:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-13/america-fumes-after-xerox-routine-backup-test-leave-17-states-without-foodstamps-sat

    "Ok, so the EBT failure not related to a government shutdown. It was, however, related to a simple "glitch" in a ""Just-In-Time"" world of peak complexity, which quickly cascaded through the logistical supply chain, and crippled the "purchasing" power of tens of millions of Americans, which potentially could have resulted in lethal consequences".

    "And while this time it took just 12 hours to return the system to order, what would have happened if the failure states had propagated, and led to subsequent systemic failures on their own, halting down peripheral social choke points, and resulting in a freeze of the "backup and restore" capacity of society. In short: this time, we - and especially those 46 million Americans on foodstamps - were lucky. Next time, luck may be in short supply."

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    1. I do not know what the expected down time would be for a complete failure/recovery test, but 12 hours sounds long based on my professional experience with such tests. The down time window was usually 4-6 hours on a Saturday night and Sunday morning. So my guess is the test encountered some problems (but that is one reason to test - identify problems for a real failure so they can be fixed now).

      Sounds like business as usual (Xerox is probably contractual obligated to run these tests by the government).

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  31. One last thing for the day before I engage in my Bread & Circuses.... Watching Foozball!

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-13/chart-day-china-imports-over-2000-tons-gold-last-two-years

    A bird in hand, China Style!

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  32. Is it my imagination or are there a lot of computer "gliches" lately? Seem like a major computer problem in the gov't or market almost weekly. Im sure there is nothing to it! Also did anyone hear/read about the vets marching/protesting at the White House. Story on Zero Hedge but not seeing it elsewhere. Wondering how big the protest really is? Things seem to be speeding up for certain.

    Another question: was the sell order on the comex Friday the largest single order ever(I think I read that somewhere), and how does it compare to the other bear raids especially back in April/May. Point I'm getting to is this: Are these raids becoming less effective and therefore requiring larger and larger sell orders? We will need to see what happens Monday but a 2MM oz sell order executed in 3mins and it knocked gold down what 3% and by the end of the day it had regained some of that loss. Any thoughts

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    1. bondguy.....as Red referenced this is a transfer that is two fold.......obtaining gold from the Western Sovereigns into The East as the Western fiat counterfeiting game begins to shutdown as the reset time advances......AND there is a transfer into "certain" specific private hands in the West. These are international private hands......so when the final physical gold is extracted then the lights will be turned out. The question is what is used as the "smoke bomb" to conceal the chaos.

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