Sunday, October 6, 2013

DEVASTATION!

 I thought I might start out today with some commentary on the metals market since some of you may still own some. Keeping up this weekend with numerous metal traders and listening to different podcasts I couldn't help but notice a trend in sentiment and it is most definitely as negative as it was at the last bottom several months ago. Is the July bottom in gold and silver going to hold? I really don't have a clue, and frankly don't really give a $H#!, because it won't make much difference to my equity holdings in the miners and it certainly won't change my outlook on physical metal. It will give me an opportunity to keep accumulating physical metal at prices I never expected to see two years ago and that is a positive.  What the sentiment DOES do is make me wonder if indeed we are very close to a higher low in many of the miners and in the metals....so maybe we are and some physical silver Monday will be on the "to do" list. NO ONE on CNBS is saying buy gold or silver and that is a positive. If any of you follow this channel as I do for sentiment then you may recall that several of their pundits on Fast Money were saying buy Gold at the high last months (and miners too). THAT should have sent off some warning bells.

Whether you subscribe to the end of the world scenario or not, even the most rationale, apolitical, anti-conspiratorial peep with half a brain must admit this is the most distorted, manipulated market in the last 50 years. It defies logic, but at the same time makes sense if you listen to THEIR own words. With every sentence defending the Feds monetization they add "after the greatest crisis since the Great Depression".....Just keep believing they can keep this afloat with "digital printing"......Just keep believing as countries are bailed in and private retirement accounts are confiscated. Just keep believing as many of you did in 2007 that their was NO crisis coming as Ben repeated every month. AND in 2008 the downturn was temporary as your accounts evaporated into dust. "No one could have seen it coming" said numerous Fed speakers in 2010. Its funny how those quotes of "no one could have seen it coming tend to surface over recent history. 

BTW the current debate over the debt ceiling is a charade. Its Kabuki Theater to make you believe there's a government. Don't get caught up in it, its just noise. If anything its to keep the headline BLS numbers off the map for a couple of key months so no one knows just how bad it is AND it gives the Fed the cover to blame CONgress in a month or two for a collapsing economy.

Tough time for anyone in the metals trade, especially if you don't understand WHY you are in it and many of you don't. You really do believe in Santa and you really do believe the Wizard is behind the curtain to save you. gl with that.


THE PEACE OF WILD THINGS
When despair for the world grows in me
and I wake in the night at the least sound
in fear of what my life and my children's lives may be,
I go and lie down where the wood drake
rests in his beauty on the water, and the great heron feeds.
I come into the peace of wild things
who do not tax their lives with forethought
of grief. I come into the presence of still water.
And I feel above me the day-blind stars
waiting with their light. For a time
I rest in the grace of the world, and am free.
— Wendell Berry












108 comments:

  1. I did listen to the Financial Sense Radio show.

    They feel that Gold could trade between 1200 to 1400 possibly for years. They feel 1180 will be tested within the next several weeks. In order for Gold to truly rise significantly, they feel: 1) Inflation needs to heat up or 2) the Fed's attempt at tapering fails, such they must reverse course and significantly print more money. (Note: They feel at some point, the Fed WILL try to taper, but it will be unsuccessful).

    It seems to me that, #1 or #2 or some combination of both will eventually occur. So, try to save some money and take advantage of lower prices when they occur.

    Also, although these guys on Financial Sense tend to be bullish for Equities, they admit a day of reckoning will eventually occur.

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    1. As I've said many times Doc....we are in a faux market and the "fix is in".....having said that, it means NOTHING in terms of predicting the exact time they collapse this pig......BUT one think is always certain, virtually all the peeps will NOT be able to get out when they do stop the music. This is a classic bubble and it will end like all bubbles....POP! Careful playing the last of the ride up in a bubble. As far as gold and silver.....they absolutely can remain range bound....the question again is how long and with the East accumulating physical and the bullion banks getting very low in physical, I would be very careful expecting the range bound trade to last for years......THAT is the picture they WANT to paint....whether they do seems to require an awful lot of very complex factors working out perfectly....landing a 747 on an aircraft carrier is just not that easy

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  2. John Mauldin today saying O'care will definitely be a negative on the economy since that part of GDP (currently 17.9%) MUST shrink. Add to that the fact that taxes MUST go up to fund healthcare for all doesn't bode well for the economy in the short term. As of now, I'm sticking with the real change coming at M.Armstrong's 10/15 but of course the smart money will be out before that. He isn't committing to exactly when that will be. The problem for me personally with the miners is will they also deteriorate if we have a major correction. GL everyone...I am still probably much to heavy in this sector.

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    1. Miners have been decimated sister and of course when the "music stops" all the long equity and long bond peeps will get out...of course they wont.....but you know what they say about blood in the streets.....

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  3. We are in danger of a systemic collapse spiraling quickly unless measures are taken to take the boot off the consumer's neck. Gasoline price is being taken down quickly to give the consumer some room to spend on other goods and services, but its too little too late. Bond trade may implode in less than a few weeks. Europe blowing too....can it be extended for several more years? Perhaps but I won't be betting my money on it.... I think you can save your fiat and bury it in your back yard but gl with that strategy

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    1. "Take the boot on the consumers neck" really...... not by what I'm seeing, in reality they are applying more pressure! O Care is just going to stick a fork in those that are treading water, those that have been demoted to part time or laid off due to O Care are doomed they just don't know it yet! Something is going to give, it has to, what, where and when only Nature/God knows but what this simpleton knows this show can't go on as is!

      I noticed you mentioned a post or two ago about the effect of O Care hitting Hospitals, this chit has been fkning with everybody since the SCOUTS ruling.... This chit has wiped out whole sale supporting segments of the Medical community, ie Mom & Pop DME retailers, Medical Transcription Company's, Small Billing Companies never mind all those in EVERY industry that lost their health insurance by getting demoted to part time!

      Change you can believe in!


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    2. referring to "short term" only......they know they "screwed the pooch" by the high oil price but they didn't care.......NOW they are trying to let the consumer up to buy for Xmas....but IT WONT WORK... they can spin the numbers all they want but its not going to be good......just as they have spun the top line bad numbers for two years they will continue to spin the revs and earnings over the next quarter but on the ground things are in an accelerating downtrend and they know its at stall speed maybe even in an uncontrollable dive.....THEY KNOW IT and preparations are frantic. O didn't meet with the bankers last week just to be friendly. and yes you are right about the medical industry and it is VERY bad in most of these hospital.....even the big ones like Cleveland Clinic see layoffs.

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  4. Consumer stretched to the limit; taxes and fees escalating everywhere here in N.C. And the cost of Obamacare won't help. Pay more for less service. That's just the way it will be. Interesting tho that EWI & EWP are going up. Everything is upside down and backwards with bonds/PMs imploding and risky stocks like MU exploding (It was about $5 last yr this time; now over $18 with earnings being reported on Thurs.)

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    1. That stock has been stupidly underpriced for awhile. Glad to see the good guys win a battle ;)

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    2. lots of room to run on the daily here and of course the weekly.....also NO gap to fill......might want to ride this for awhile before trading

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  6. Herd thinks we DONT default .......Herd thinks market goes up...........Herd (me included) thought we would have taper ( if only temporary and for appearance only) . The smart money is watching the credit default swaps.....if it crosses 50bps then trouble IS coming in the default scenario .. Ask yourself this question...WHO benefits with a crisis here and HOW do they benefit? IS THE real economy recovering? IS there a sustainable growth outlook with structural issues being addressed??? eg demographics, medical costs, pensions, state and municipal mandates, education debt, derivatives, CONfidence etc etc. IF these answers are NO, then just be aware of the question WHO and HOW do they benefit if this does go over the cliff in a manufactured default/crisis

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  7. http://billmoyers.com/episode/full-show-wendell-berry-poet-prophet/

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  8. Thanks for the comment on ANV...may add if there is a pullback in the morning. They reported record production & sales...as you say, who do you think really profited from the takedown. Huge volume on the last candle. I have trading friends who have been laughing at me over this one stock for months so I hope I am at least somewhat vindicated, lol.

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    1. if paper markets survive, you and I will be vindicated on ANV......IF ..... but if paper markets don't survive ......then so what....can't put all your fiat in physical

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  9. The guys on Financial Sense talked about a possible default, but felt it was unlikely. Their reasoning was that it would have severe consequences for the USA. So, I guess you could call them part of the herd.

    But, I guess it is worth considering. So, if we default, our creditworthiness worsens and our borrowing costs go up. That would set off a whole chain of events.

    I guess I just don't see it happening yet. They will pump this higher 1st.

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    1. EVERYONE believes they pump it higher which always makes one pause if they've traded these markets. I always said the miners were a crowded trade....it isn't anymore....their work is done in this sector..hehehehehehe......but that doesn't mean they can't take it lower......it only means it isn't a crowded trade now. On the other hand, bond and equities are bubbles.....so take your pick....ride the bubble and hope you get off in time or......

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  10. Doc, I think some sort of last minute deal will be reached and then with the holidays coming, they'll push the markets higher thru December, but I don't see too much upside from here, maybe 5%? Probably best to go to cash (which I've mostly done), and sit this one out. I also predict a nice 15-20% correction thru March of next year, and then a ramp up to 1800 or more on the S&P. So if I'm right, that will be a good dip to buy.

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    1. certainly "buying the dips" has been an excellent strategy. Just make sure you're not a Pavlovian (GS) dog. ruff ruff.. ;-)

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  11. If they want a collapse and are not concerned with interest rates skyrocketing, the Fed would have tapered...why keep stimulating fully then go for default a few weeks later!? Just doesn't make sense. They'll come to an agreement at the eve of the ceiling. Like you've said a million times Kli, we won't have a clue when the music is really about to stop, it''ll be sudden and unexpected. Besides, there's more damage to be done to our freedoms first...not to mention the PM trade ;)

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    1. I think the damage to the freedom "thing" is "pretty much" complete. After all martial law has been tested regionally and locally a number of times over the past few years. One good false flag even (take your pick) and hard martial law is a lock nationwide. There are of course variables involved, but I would imagine these have been calculated for the most part. As far as WHEN and HOW they collapse the bubbles, THEY only know and anyone trying to "ride the bubble" here is playing a fool's game as past bubbles have aptly demonstrated (see history). The Bond/bond derivative bubble WILL NOT bounce back when it goes and it is starting now. It will suck ALL of these bubbles with it. gl sammy..... getting a nice solar system today ala thankyou gov and power company

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  12. I know this is but a few examples of those who clamored for the passage of O-Care, who are now learning true reality, that they are going to be the ones that will pay the freight, just like the rest of us.

    http://www.infowars.com/democrat-voters-confused-i-didnt-realize-i-would-be-the-one-who-was-going-to-pay-for-it-personally/

    The best one I found was on a local Assemblyman's FB page where his constituent could not comprehend WHY she couldn't keep her current Health Plan after all they said she would be able to!!! bwaaaaa..... She most likely was with Healthy NY, a means based, state subsidized bare bones health plan for individuals and sole proprietors which now has dropped individual coverages and one now must head to the exchange for a good case of sticker shock!

    To your point about X-Mas shopping..... hehehehehe, with this chit no need to worry about gas prices!!!

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    1. yup......ponzimonium is a bitch aint it........every action has an opposite and equal reaction....and a "rock and a hard place" is getting more and more obvious.......there......that's enough cliches

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  13. Bud - what is your empirical data for all this believe and I think outlook. I know lot of people who believe the end is near based on biblical prophecy - not very data based, but they believe it.

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    1. Bud's been on a roll Inlet.....and he's riding his streak. I'll play my tortoise game and take my licks, but I will not be riding this bubble.......even after the 15-20 correction........Bond market has to be destroyed and new fiat before I play the game with general equities.

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    2. In an up market many arrogantly equate a winning "streak" with intelligence..... I have found if I don't get greedy 60% or so good calls can be profitable.

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  14. I think what bothers you and me is the history that we have personally watched with the Fed and markets. You and I watched the Fed build the 87 bubble while EVERYONE said it would go on before they popped it (quite suddenly btw) and the 2000 crash and 2008 crash.....of course "this time is different" or I'll ride it and get out in time. or I'll play the bounce when it corrects 20%......well how did that work for you in 2001 when it corrected 20%.....I tried that with a number of tech stocks...MOST OF THEM (like JDSU and Cisco) are still down 70-80%.......hehehehehehe.......maybe we just have a different historical perspective Inlet.

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    1. Hehehe as they say in No Country For Old Men - "Times and Wonders..." ;)

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    2. Kli - I made my money in the 80s and 90s mostly and got out when they started IPOing companies at multiples of revenues in 1998-99. Since then I have kept most of my funds in income generating real estate and fixed income investments. I have played in the equities market around the edge (less than $100k). Got out in early 2007 and bought a small position in QQQ inverses. Made a small profit since it was a small bet. Recently buying Russell 2000 (small cap) inverses.

      Prefer silver over gold since every cell phone in the world has a smidge of silver in it - so the commercial use of silver makes it more volatile than gold, but for me makes it a preferred option.

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  15. Kli, Are they going to take gold down again? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-08/goldman-says-gold-slam-dunk-sell-ready-buy-all-its-clients-have-offer

    From your last post, speaking of building booms, DC is building like gang busters it is outrageous. While in Virgina I am amazed by how many people have purchase "Don't tread on me," license tags for their cars. You can purchased them at the DMV.

    Great poem, a sense of sanity .

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    1. I hope they take it down Tom.....at least for a few weeks......I have fiat coming in......so that means they probably won't..:-)... If I had to guess........I would GUESS the lows are in....but they still control the trade and they will take it up when they're ready. Also The CFTC is sending out Gensler to pasture and Their head lawyer resigned the day after they announced they were closing their silver manipulation case........strange times indeed.

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  16. I had a friend that played the 40% correction in the Nasdaq crash in 2000 by using leverage. He was cajoled into this move by his retail broker with the advice that he was in bargain basement prices...... I live in his home now.....

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  17. Kli,

    You will have to let us know how the Solar Panels are doing. I was very interested in them for my home, but now my wife & I are thinking of moving into a smaller home within the next 6-8 years. So, I didn't want to pony up the money & not being sure I would get a return if I sold. Still thinking about it though.

    Obviously just my opinion, but I think the Republocrats will come to an agreement & avoid the default. They will create a wealth effect as we move towards the Christmas holidays. They have to give the retailers something. Bud may be right that the crash comes after the holidays.

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    1. Doc .... reputable company doing installation....the power company gives me 2$ per kw h on the panels....that works out to a 50% rebate on the panels that the company doesn't bill for. then the gov gives you 30% tax CREDIT on the entire system. Thankyou guys for your contribution.

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    2. I have always been interested in doing solar but unfortunately couldn't make the math work with my state as there's no real rebates and power is luckily still dirt cheap here. But from a self-sufficiency standpoint it is definitely comforting to have. I did get spray foam in the attic in the new home I purchased and it has made a nice difference. Amazing how much more energy efficient houses can be built now compared to ones even 20 years ago. You just have to do your research on the builder and be sure they do it right. Just saw a house go up in my neighborhood with absolutely no house-wrap. I feel sorry for whoever ends up purchasing it as they'll likely never know.

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    3. Hope it stays sunny by you year round.... hehehehe.... Looked into it up here and even with the all the goodies thrown in the numbers didn't justify the expense.

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  18. I don't put my "faith" in any market pundit....but I do listen. BOTH SIDES bull and bear. I just happen to believe based on my own metrics that, "this just might be a PONZI" and as past ponzies have ALWAYS demonstrated the MUSIC DOES STOP....and having tried to play past ponzies from the "long side" and hoping to "get out" in time....I learned the hard way to NEVER play that "angle". Other older investors ALWAYS garner my attention and merit respect at least.... here is one
    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/10/8_60-Year_Market_Veteran_Says_US_Is_Bankrupt_%26_Will_Collapse.html

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  19. still no gaps in PMs and miners.......

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  20. Hey!

    LDK is up big today. Possibly due to the purchase of Solar Panels??

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  21. http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2013/10/dollar-valueless-about-to-crash-world.html

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  22. Check out the RSI on ARNA. Worth a nibble?

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  23. It's not the big down days on miners that hurt. It's ones like these with the slow 2-3% grind downs on no real movement of the metals. UGH! I hate it.

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    1. could be some selling from margin calls on some hedges.....Market move and bond move a BIG problem for some positions

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    2. More than likely you're right. I just hope they don't have much to offload, I wouldn't think so honestly.

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    3. selling in this manner wreaks of position liquidation but it still serves the same purpose which is to beat the trade down and allow strong hands to accumulate. Those "strong hands" are not "retail" traders buying here.

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  24. http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2013/10/feds-hold-seniors-at-gunpoint-during.html

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  25. O's press conference is bizzarre......no rhyme or reason......very disjointed with no real "message"......something really stinks here.....just can't wrap my arms around this.....be careful

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    1. I was thinking exactly the same thing... just staring at the screen wondering WTF he is talking about.

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    2. miner charts are getting VERY ugly

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  26. http://www.brotherjohnf.com/archives/230989

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  27. Same as every other speech: make sure to line by line, blame every single problem, domestic and foreign, on the Rupublicans.

    Specifically the TP, because he knows what they did to his last mid-term elections. Dems are terrified of the TP. It wasn't the far left fools like Pelosi that took a hit, it was mostly blue dogs (and some "red dogs" , too) that were voted out. Next mid-terms are on the horizon. If he loses just 5 in senate, his term is done right then.

    Sure, there are many deeper levels going on, but speeches are not about those things, speeches are for the sheeple. Gotta love the MSM serving up softballs and talking points for him. It's a disgrace really---the press used to be there to protect the people by asking hard questions, not provide cover for their globalist hero. Not even a single mention of the online Ocare exchange disaster. BTW, Kli, good post on Ole Dammegard.

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  28. Agree think.--gonna read the Dammegard book. Just heard a clip of Sam Zell saying this is specifically to get the markets down, no way we default. Then a furloughed accountant with the Budget Office called and said it isn't even an issue with tax increases and even more tax increases coming in January. It's just all a show. They all know O'care a disaster. To me, he always seems discombobulated when trying to actually speak...his handlers never let him off teleprompter. Also sounds like he could care less which is probably the case; just in it for the money.

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  29. This is all choreographed Kabuki theater and I can speculate the reasons why.....such as keeping the stats OFF the media that employment is COLLAPSING...the REAL numbers are probably already 16% or worse depending on what calculations you choose....but its worsening badly...O care is accelerating the collapse and they CANNOT implement it quickly and the insurance companies desperately want it...after all its taxpayer free money to them......"they" want the "tea party" discredited which really is a thinly disguised attack on ANY threat to the two party system they have in place...they want the Fed to show up with BIGGER and Better QE to save the day in a few weeks and show the people the Fed is there to "save" you..... so you see there are many reasons for this theater....but what worries me is that NONE of these could be behind it and it REALLY is the plug being pulled here with CONgress and the Prez set up as the scapegoats (not that they don't deserve it) and we really do get some massive panic/default/reset..... It is NOT expected and it would be absolutely perfect. BTW I have no odds given....and my crystal ball was thrown away a few months ago when it said "you are about to get foched"

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  30. http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/10/8_US_Propaganda_Is_Smokescreen_For_A_Catastrophic_Problem.html

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  31. Budfox - "If we have data, let’s look at data. If all we have are opinions, let’s go with mine.” – Jim Barksdale

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    1. Bud's data is simple "ride the Fed".... my issue with Bud's hypothesis is NO ONE jumps the shark and survives......maybe for a little while but the shark will get you eventually....

      BTW this is VERY worth reading

      http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/10/8_Former_US_Treasury_Official_-_President_To_Seize_Total_Power.html

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    2. KWN piece is very plausable in light of BO's pressor today as you pointed out neing rather bizarre and fragmentedbut what I found disturbing was his choice of vocabulary, extreamly provocative..... Either he's losing it which could be a simple observed action or something else is a foot.....

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  32. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUfS8LyeUyM

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  33. Kli, you continue to post these articles from KWN, and they have zero credibility at this time considering how many things they have gotten wrong over the years. I suspect since it confirms to your biases, you agree with whatever they say.

    You and Inlet can continue to mock me because I don't subscribe to the singular view of doom and collapse, but this blog's archives and my prior posts show that I've been very consistent about my trades, my view points, and future predictions. I don't flip-flop, and have been sticking with what's worked so far, and somehow, I'm "2 funny".

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  34. Bud...if you believe you are "mocked" then why do you post.... as far as KWN goes I separate Eric King from his guests AND I separate his guest in terms of their agendas......YOU may discard ALL of them in mass because they are on KWN, but that seems somewhat shallow given many of their long histories in the "market" In fact MANY of these gentlemen and women have been spot on with their analysis over their careers and MANY are NOT "goldbugs"......their point on gold is the game is "rigged" just as you have stated. Many of these people have distinguished careers in the market (you do not) and I find your dismissal of them to be presumptuous and indicative of "your" bias. I like your frequent posts and encourage you to continue. You will not be blocked. If you feel you are "mocked" feel free to move elsewhere....I'm sure there are many sites that you have to choose from but don't come here and post your opinions without ANY support and then cry "foul" when someone demands you to back your opinion with support. Besides...its ok for you to be funny.

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    1. respectfully budfox....some here may find your disappearing act during gold and miners recent bullish move somewhat disingenuous when you stated you were very busy with business...and then suddenly showing up almost daily as gold and miners were being taken back down.......again budfox please indulge us with YOUR articles supporting YOUR position....perhaps we can all learn.....after all given the printing of 85 Billion monthly and the previous Trillions printed by the Fed certainly have "proven" the "doom and gloomers" wrong in their assumption that "something" is desperately wrong in the economy.....we can all learn from this "recovery" and your experience...Now please don't think I am patronizing you, just trying to develop an understanding how you have derived your market wisdom over such gloomers as Richard Russell et al.

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  35. OK, I have been asked to provide data points. After each of the previous rounds of QE ended, the markets took double digit dives. Look at June 2010 and Oct-Nov 2011. It was either a new round of QE, or the mere promise of it (diminishing returns and all, except for the markets of course) that kick-started the next leg up on equities. Plus, we are in the middle of a big bull run that is now 5 years old. History would suggest a pause is coming, and early 2014 is a good candidate, as the Fed most likely announces some sort of tapering. Following this, again, based on past market reaction, we should see a 15-20% correction thru the first quarter of 2014. Then, in early Spring, pointing at deteriorating macro conditions, the Fed announces the mother of all QEs, to the tune of $100 billion a month (or more), which starts the next and final leg of this Ponzi, which then comes crashing down sometime in 2017, give or take a year.

    I suspect it's during this time, 2015 onwards, when gold and possibly silver begin their bug run up. Of course, I could be completely wrong, the US defaults next week, and the S starts hitting the F much sooner than expected. But I still think they'll find a way to reach a deal.

    Also, why do I continue to read and post? Despite the disagreements, there's still more here that I agree with.

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    1. budfox......in case you haven't noticed there is a bit of a "bond" problem and there is a bit of a "dollar" problem in terms of its reserve status as MANY non Western countries move away from it as the Reserve currency. You may be right that it moves the way you believe. I'll play the role of your foil quite happily and sit on my tortoise play of the bloodied miners. You can try and ride the bubble........gl with that. BTW did you trade the 2000 Naz bubble long....or the 1987 bubble long......I did.....once again gl.

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    2. Kli - Bud's whole thesis seems to be "don't fight the FED". Seems to me I've heard that somewhere before. Hehehe.

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    3. yes Inlet......that works for ya until it doesn't.......

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  36. Poor Bud - y'all stop the bullying. As most here know I post my outlooks with supporting charts for day traders. Am I always right? Of course not, but my outlook is supported by data and my interpretation of that data. I may mention news in my presentation, but my outlook is always based on a technical interpretation of price data. I challenge you to point out me going on and on about conspiracy and end of the civilization. There are things happening that even a blind man can see and would be disturbed by. Is it the end of American culture and freedom? I'm not smart enough to know the answer to that, but I am smart enough to worry about the future for my daughter.

    I just find it funny you post here where you clearly disagree with the views being expressed for the most part. Do you "kill" tem with facts and data. No, you give some obtuse reference to some news items (maybe) and give your opinion. I follow Kli and people here to collect diverse opinions and find where those opinions support or disagree with my own analysis. I am not here to contradict, there is room on the internet for many different views. If you feel strongly about your outlook start your own Blog and let people on the net decide if you have anything worthwhile to offer.

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  37. (2007) The Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (the ZSE) is the best performing stock exchange in the world, the key Zimbabwe Industrials Index up some 595% since the beginning of the year and 12,000% over twelve months.

    Bud is right don't fight the printing presses.

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  38. Budfox,

    Keep posting and roll with the punches.

    Let's not confuse data with speculation. Data is information we use from the past & present in hopes to speculate our future. Inlet, you do this very well with your cycle charts. But, as you admit, sometimes they are off and you make corrections based upon new data such that your updated charts may better predict future events.

    We all have our own various techniques that we use to try to speculate the market's future. I suspect Budfox has his.

    My opinion (speculation) is that despite all the problems out there, the US remains a powerful player in the markets and they dollar will remain strong--likely for years yet and the markets will work they way higher. I remember the dot-com era as if it were yesterday. The pure mania, euphoria, and complete lunacy that were present at that time. And,...we are not there yet. I can feel it in my bones--but I know that is not a data point.

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  39. Doc - appreciate your kind comments. Yeah, every now and then I get it right. At times we all have a "gut" feel (usually more about the longer term bigger picture). I always like to try and see if that "gut" feel aligns with what the data seems to be saying. Played this game for a lot of years. Made some money from time to time and got lucky (usually very early) and lightened up prior to some major down moves. So yeah in downturns I usually lost some, but not a lot as I had moved mostly to cash. Some are bears, some are bulls - sometimes though it pays to be a chicken like I was at times.

    Remember telling this 25ish year old woman in 2000 to stop trying to day trade at lunch by going home, but she had made some money and had this market thing all figured out. Well, I heard on the grapevine later she had lost $35-40K before she really figured it out (she didn't have a clue!!). As you know I have accumulated a core position in RWM which I trade around (selling calls sometimes or buying 400-500 trading shares). Not the first time I have been under water on a position, but when I am convinced of my basic theme I am willing to hold.

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  40. still not seeing your charts bud......still not seeing your links.....I am seeing your generalized backward review of the Fed printing which was all predicted here.....and you ARE welcome to post your rough view of how the general market behaves and how the Fed ramps UP their QE ....all fine but WHERE is your research or charts to support any of this......for instance ....WHAT is going to drive earnings/revenue? Topline vs bottom line. What do you make of the quarter after quarter of declining revenues in these companies with NO change in the Velocity of Money. What support or study do you cite that supports this type of decline can continue for three more years. I DO NOT say it cannot happen but your opinion just doesn't hold weight. These guys have NO intention of letting the peeps ride that bandwagon.

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  41. in your estimation, how long have the PTB been in power?

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    1. Best guess the modern model is more than three hundred years at least in a centrally organized manner......but more likely their predecessors going back to pre Alexander the Great. Fractional reserve banking is VERY old.....hehhehehe

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  42. Anyone out there care to guess on the significance of this event today with the yield on 4-week T-bills soaring to its highest level since Lehman after the just completed Treasury auction prices the paper at 0.355% vs. 0.295% in when-issued trading. The yield was roughly zero a month ago. As a reminder, the money-market funds that are natural buyers of these bills have to refrain if they believe there is a chance they won't get paid.

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  44. So, you still believe in charts and TA in this manipulated market? I wonder how that served, say, the Prechter bears over the last 4 or so years? Or the completely decimated miner trade? You are contradicting yourself by asking to me to provide data, the very data that you believe is completely false and made-up in the first place.

    Oh, and Inlet, those Zimbabwe comparisons are really brilliant. Thanks for that insightful analysis. I've seen the future, and the US is the next Zimbabwe indeed.

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    1. actually I do bud.....IF ONLY I obeyed what they were telling me....sigh ....... IF you go back and look at my posts several times over the past two years then you can see as Red also pointed out that we were becoming long in the tooth on the weekly then monthly charts with plenty of room to fall. There were a number of miners that broke their lower channels and I duly noted that and described the trade several times as broken. I also stated I was not trading and would ride it out. In hindsight from a "trading perspective" that was a mistake....I am NOT disturbed by the crush of the trade and sleep very well. I felt for years these years would be unusually difficult to trade and when I hear you dismiss KWN guests such as Jean Marie Eveillard out of hand then you lose credibility with intellectually shallow criticism. Go back and look at the charts on PMs in the late 70s....these charts are quite similar to today BECAUSE THEY WORK.... they work to force the suckers OUT OF THE TRADE.......The market was manipulated then by the "big players" as it is now by the BIG PLAYERS. Time will tell as it always does how this game works out but my concerns are not for my portfolio as much as they are for more important challenges for us....... YOU bud are going to be the recipient of that change.

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    2. BTW bud I have a little "behind the scenes" insight on Eric King and the guests that he has on ( ignore his salacious interview headlines)... Some of these guests are VERY heavy hitters in the market and openly admit they were never gold traders as Jean Marie says (btw he has a very long history as a BIG player on WS and I used to watch him many years ago ..... he manages 40 Billion) I listen to him because I KNOW his history and who he is......YOU apparently throw the baby out with the bathwater and THAT is why I challenge you on your dismissive criticisms. Just because they maintain a negative view this ponzi, does not make them wrong. Your point of view is all over the place. You believe this is all manipulated, yet when these guys say the same thing you castigate them as doom and gloomers. You post that you "made your money" back that you "lost" in capitulating your miner trade but you don't post your buys and sells contemporaneously so it holds NO WATER with anyone. As soon as the market corrects 6%, you're out and calling for a larger correction of 20%. Many of the miners rose over 100% a couple of months ago and you were NO where to be found but now they have been once again slaughtered you show up. Apparently you are a "trader" based on your comments about your previous equity long positon......so let me ask you this. WHY wouldn't you have "traded" the volatility in the miners....That last swing trade was a doozy......and yes bud......you will be here as long as the beatdown in the PM trade continues. but you will never show your face once it breaks out.......Just as you did a short few months ago. That is why I take you to task bud........

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  45. IMO, it is good to see differing viewpoints. So I offer my two cents. I’m a simple guy and see simple pictures. The tinfoil hat stuff is interesting fodder, but not necessary to understand there are absolutely inevitable consequences to the recent financial policy. The gamble was based on Keynesian theory that O and his crowd openly espouse, e.g “the stimulus” and trillions in dollar printing. Could be just a convenient cover for more wicked intentions, but either way, that’s the game being played. That fiscal policy has failed several times and only can work if it bridges a short recession into a corresponding economic boom. There is no economic boom, nor is any in sight. Ocare was the coup de gras for any hope of recovery. But once you fire up the printing presses, you’re pot committed. It only lasts so long, so next step is quietly "printing" tons of PM, meaning reserves are liquidated to stave off a run on PM and a flee from the dollar. The hope is to buy some more time for an economic boom which would relax PM pressure, allow re-accumulation and phase out printing. This is pretty basic. Not that looking at declining revenues while stock prices rise 18% this year is complex. My own speculation: when PM reserves are openly exhausted, all the games are up and things get wild. Looking back, the crashes are worsening, so if 2008 was bad, there will be REAL hell to pay this time. I don't see it taking 3 more years, not even close. Which is a shame because the USA is the one country that could have crushed the world in the last 4 years with conservative, restrained fiscal and regulatory policy---we would have been the one booming economy and the entire world would have been investing their money on our shores and in our businesses.

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    1. no tinfoil here..heheheh...take a look at the timing on the gold moves

      http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-09/beware-sudden-unexplained-collapses-commodity-prices

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    2. Don't forget it is not Just Keynesian that has been tried and failed over and over, but many countries have tried their version of Ocare that resulted in degraded medical services (when you could get it). I do not know where the Canadians will be able to get expedited needed operations in a couple of years as the US medical system goes into the dumper.

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  46. What concerns me is not what gold or miners do....sorry to those that do care.......WHAT concerns me is the direction our constitutionally guaranteed rights have gone in. These freedoms that our country shed blood for are NOT coming back without tremendous sacrifice. These losses have been incremental for years but over the last decade they have accelerated. The population overall is "dumbed down" and asleep at the wheel. Totalitarianism will not just be in the current administration......it will accelerate in the next one too....rep or dem........So whether we have a "big tinfoil event" or not in the next year ....we have already lost. When you see vids of seniors and vets with wrist restraints on and their arms behind their backs loaded into police paddy wagons like common criminals then you have already lost and THAT is your FEAR......NOT the boogeyman that was created to scare you......We are now "owned" and we are being told "you better get used to it" ....soon it will be "you better get used to it or else".....Once again WHY ARE THEY creating this faux battle over the "shutdown"?? WHY? I think it is simple, in the end you will see more consolidation of Executive Power as Congress "fails" AND the Fed will step in to rescue the economy with more printing..... Mathematically there is really NO choice if the "game" is to continue.

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  47. Ahhh Kli I thought you said your crystal ball was broken??

    btw Bud I believe you just got taken out behind the woodshed and got a good ole fashioned thumping! Heheheehhe but keep posting anyway!

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  48. Look at SSRI......great miner.....but look at the beatdown......do you understand the pain on the leveraged weak leafs that jumped in on the "breakout"....hehehe......UP 100% and now EVERYTHING and MORE taken away.....heheheheheheh........THIS is how the boyz play......WHO do you think is down here buying now??? Someone is selling then "someone" is buying....some call the answer "smart money" buying now..

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

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    1. No joke, I just got issued a damn margin call. I can cover it luckily as I didn't go crazy on margin but it's nuts how badly they're smashed this trade. I shouldn't be surprised and shouldn't have been greedy. Glad I didn't go overboard.

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    2. No leverage here Hubz and only down on paper 70% ...I'm so concerned that I am going to play 18 today for my bread and circus.......while Rome burns........I am prepared that my "bread and circus" has an expiration date as all of us have........so get while I can.

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    3. As we too well know, the time to buy is when nobody wants it for a trade at the very least. Getting to that point if not there already.

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  49. Reading a bio of Patrick Henry! He is the one who was a "country boy" as opposed to the aristocrats, who wanted the Bill of Rights, who abhorred taxation. But what happened immediately after the signing of the Constitution? Only months after taking office, the first Congress imposed a national tax without the consent of the state legislatures...and then (gasp!) Washington sent troops into Pennsylvania to suppress the protests ag. federal taxation. Something tells me I'm on the losing side, lol.

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  50. Another PM flash crash as I was typing...Yellen the Printer anti-gold as well.

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  51. Who is left to sell? I mean really after a 2+yr beat down? Who is dumping metal and stocks? Seriously, I've owned gold and miners since 2001, but I'm close to thowing in the towel. I can't figure any place that has as much value as miners but the constant beat down is worse than anything I can remember.

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    1. your memory is very short then.......how about 2008.........even worse than today in many of them.......and as far as who is selling you answered that question yourself with "I'm close to throwing in the towel."........go ahead......hehehehehe......go into cash or long equities......or bonds......oh wait ....you are the bondguy

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    2. I know 2008 was worse, but I traded that MUCH better and it was over quickly, really August through end of October. But as I said I cannot really find anything as cheap as miners so I'll stay but need some primal scream therapy by venting on this site. BTW my little rant will probably mark the bottom!! So thats my contribution to the discussion! Thanks for the great discussion above.

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  52. Manufactured "fake" or Manufactured "real" fear............so which will it be??? You pick.....my crystal ball said "you are foched"......

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-09/general-collateral-turmoil-bill-battering-finally-slams-repo

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  53. We live in interesting times to say the least. Wow.

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    1. No Hubz......this is only foreplay.......the real action is yet to come....funny thing is.....NO ONE really believes that

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  54. Ron Paul "they're very, very rigid on bad ideas", who gives in is irrelevant as deficit and the breakdown of whole system: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fuDGEarENFE&feature=player_embedded#t=121

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  55. Replies
    1. Phil Davis of Phil's Stock World predicted a bounce today, but it would likely be a weak bounce,...so watch out.

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  56. What you get a margin call and now you're turning into a tree hugger? Hehehehe. Dude you have far more courage than I to be playing on margin in this enviorment! Just glad it didn't hurt too much!!!

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    1. Hehehe I'm only a tree hugger when it makes sense ;)

      I was able to cover it and didn't have to do any forced selling on margin so it's all cool in bible school. I'm in it for the long haul and not selling these at a loss. AG is my main loser. Bought in the $14's and now it's in the $10s :(

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    2. THATS your main LOSER..........ughhhh........many of mine are down 90%

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    3. Hahah I'll quit my bitching then ;)

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    4. Ahh, Ahh, Ahh CGR.... God bless me! Hehehehe

      Hubz defiantly turn that frown around your doing good! Let me tell you a little story about RIC..... bawaaaaaa

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    5. EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

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  57. I would not describe myself as happy with the miner slaughter but what is VERY obvious to me is the purpose of the slaughter.....and unfortunately for those with the macroview that counterfeiting of the currency will result in nothing good it destroys their position unless they have balls of steel and most do not. THAT is the purpose of these type of beatdowns and it ALWAYS works. I have to smile when I hear the dribble from people forced out of the trade and listen to their alternatives. IF they were like Andy Hoffman or Red then I take my hat off to them......they stayed out of the paper and went to only physical.....but alas most are not and fall back on their fear instinct into what is going to be what I like to call Soylent Green line. There is no "safe haven" coming for us.......there is something else ahead and NONE of you have ever seen the type of change we are about to encounter......I'll prepare and of course pretend that my Bread and Circus will be forever....until it isn't.....and I'm afraid that its much closer than "three years".....but that would be nice.....gl

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  58. Fidelity dumping short term treasuries.

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  59. wow, i didnt realize miners have crashed so hard again. my basket of shit (ego,ssri,svm and kgc) are still shit. but hey, it is what it is. the positive is they are still not bankrupt. cant believe ssri is under 6.00, that caught me by surpise since i have basically stopped watching the mkt. i figure i am in the miners for the long haul, so why worry about day to day moves. i will say, i am interested in averaging down at this point. i wonder which piece of miner that is on sale, that i should buy. good luck everyone.

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