Saturday, November 30, 2013

YOU HAVE TO KNOW THE RISK

Do you? "You have to know the risk" was a forgotten line in an old movie, but the line still has the same meaning today for a variety of life's situations. You must decide if this time it is different. Can a market continue to rally in the face of declining top line numbers? Can companies continue squeeze every possible drop out of the earnings sponge? Will the available work force continue to accept a declining wage scale compared not only to 6 years ago but to wage earners in many developing and developed countries. Do you believe the military can continue to be extended in an effort to prop up the hegemony of the dollar? Will the public here accept the concept of "Unending War"?  Perhaps more importantly will the rest of the World accept it? How much time can a Nobel Peace prize buy you? 

Maybe you had trouble with math in high school, but the last time I checked its very difficult to service a debt of over 100 Trillion with a current yearly federal tax rev of 1.7 Trillion.  IF you believe the hype then you have to believe we can grow our way  into an expanding tax revenue that will service the debt and bring our yearly deficit to ZERO.  Let's assume that by hook or crook that can occur during the next two years.....Here is the problem for that "pollyanna" resolution. It's called the accumulated treasury debt AND the "other 90 trillion in debt and unfunded liabilities". It's called the "reversion to the mean" in interest rates. Its called the "law of nature" and it must be obeyed. As the rates rise as the "economy grows" all hell will break loose with the burden of debt hanging over the economy like an Oklahoma thunderstorm ready to dump the biggest flood of chaos the economic system has ever seen.

THIS is the "risk" that professional money managers are frozen in fear over. They know the "risk on" trade is being headlined by the Central Banks ponzi masters but they also know the light at the end of the tunnel that is promoted daily by the MSM and Fed speak could just be a freight train.  They don't know the timing but they are afraid to get caught in an awfully big crowd trying to go through a very tiny exit door. THAT is the consequence of  a policy of fiat that violates every free market principle known in history. 

You have been the subject of an experiment. Its never been tried in history and it will end. If you believe you can get through that exit door with all of the professional money when the music ends then I wish you only the best. You've had your time to prepare and I hope you have used it. Seasons wishes to all.

from Goldseek



I Died For Beauty

I died for beauty, but was scarce
Adjusted in the tomb,
When one who died for truth was lain
In an adjoining room.

He questioned softly why I failed?
"For beauty," I replied.
"And I for truth - the two are one;
We brethren are," he said.

And so, as kinsmen met a-night,
We talked between the rooms,
Until the moss had reached our lips,
And covered up our names. 



145 comments:

  1. Venezuela central bank denies transactions with Wall Street
    By Brian Ellsworth
    CARACAS Thu Nov 28, 2013 2:34pm EST

    (Reuters) – Venezuela’s central bank president denied on Thursday that the institution is carrying out any transactions with Wall Street banks, a day after a senior government source said it was evaluating a swap agreement involving its gold reserves.

    Opposition leaders and local media have reported that Venezuela is seeking to boost availability of hard currency through transactions with Goldman Sachs (GS.N) and Bank of America (BAC.N).

    "With respect to the institutions you’ve mentioned, the central bank … is not carrying out any operations with these institutions," Central Bank President Eudomar Tovar said at a press conference in response to a question about the reports.

    "There are some considerations out there which have come out, but these are unofficial positions, if you will."

    Asked again by a reporter, he said: "There has been no activity done by the central bank with Goldman Sachs or any institution."

    ReplyDelete
  2. http://rt.com/news/iceland-debt-relief-measure-535/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hmmmm, no good poke in the eye deserves to go unpunished.....

      Gotta admire their hutzpuh!

      Delete
    2. oh there will be punishment......

      Delete
  3. The global intelligence company Stratfor (Get tomorrow's intelligence, not yesterday's news.) recently published a series of 2014 predictive articles for its most exclusive clients which, in essence, warned that the United States would, by the end of next year, “cease to exist in all but name only” due to three looming threats: 1.) A potential false flag attack by America’s oligarchy (a government in which a small group exercises control, esp. for corrupt and selfish purposes) upon its citizens to solidify its rule; 2.) The signing of a Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP ) agreement that would replace American law with corporate rules thus destroying forever individual rights and privacy; and 3.) A US Supreme Court victory for the Obama administration in the Bond v. United States case that would forever allow international treaties to overrule American laws.

    For those privileged few able to afford the nearly $100,000 cost for these exclusive Stratfor reports, the response has been immediate, and include billionaires Warren Buffett, John Paulson, and George Soros “quietly dumping their American stocks . . . and fast.”

    As to why the oligarchs ruling over the United States feel the need to radically changing their society can be found in the shocking statistics showing that the number of Americans on welfare is higher than the number of Americans that have full-time jobs ; a whopping 932,000 Americans dropped out of labor force in October plunging the labor force participation rate to a 35 year low ; the US is facing its greatest doctor shortage in all of American history ; it has more of its citizens in prison than it has high school teachers and engineers ; and the likelihood of its citizens being killed by their own police forces is 8 times higher than their being killed by a terrorist . from sarcha fal

    ReplyDelete
  4. Bud supports at least 932,000 by himself...... or, that is what he would have us believe. Hehehe

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. To Heck with Bud, that breif essay is chilling!

      Just makes you wanna dig a hole now and cover up :(

      Delete
  5. Counterpoint:
    1. The American people have PROVEN themselves strongly opposed to further war by overwhelming their politicians to stay out of Syria
    --------and personally I think they are quite a bit more suspicious seeing how that all went down
    2. There is a strengthening resistance to the TPP as it's contents become more widely known. The odds of ratification are dropping fast
    3. The odds are infintessimally small that SCOTUS overturns the very concept of a sovereign nation, which BTW could easily trigger a rebellion not seen since around 1776

    Regarding the last paragraph, it's clear beyond any doubt that the current oligarchy actually ESPOUSES the very entitlement society at the heart of the problems and is even attempting to foist the biggest tax on the middle class in US history while putting more nails in the coffin of our economy and doctor shortage. Furthermore, the current oligarchs have taken taken incredible efforts to encumber and block those that can and would seek to increase employment. All considered, I fail to see how the last paragraph jives in any way with reality.

    I'm going to provide this at half price. So all you readers please cough up $50G. But I AM largely out of stocks as of last week, took my profits, and will re-evaluate after mid January, excepting some miners I've held as a casino gamble.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Counterpoint to your Counterpoint.......

      They don't give a chit what we think, they just change the rules!

      btw: Vlad had a bit to do with not hitting Syria....

      Delete
  6. This one is for you, (you all know who you are, parasite sympathizers):

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-30/other-america-taxpayers-are-fools-working-stupid

    While what little remains of America's middle class is happy and eager to put in its 9-to-5 each-and-every day, an increasing number of Americans - those record 91.5 million who are no longer part of the labor force - are perfectly happy to benefit from the ever more generous hand outs of the welfare state. Prepare yourself before listening to this... calling on her self-admitted Obamaphone, Texas welfare recipient Lucy, 32, explains why "taxpayers are the fools"...

    "...To all you workers out there preaching morality about those of us who live on welfare... can you really blame us? I get to sit around all day, visit my friends, smoke weed.. and we are still gonna get paid, on time every month..."

    She intends to stay on welfare her entire life, if possible, just like her parents (and expects her kids to do the same). As we vociferously concluded previously, the tragedy of America's welfare state is that work is punished.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah was gonna post that for your parusial earlier but since I posted that video first I didnt want to be repetitive :)

      Look I don't think anyone here supports that type of mentality, I know I certainly don't however unlike what you post since your anger is directed exactly where it is designed by our masters, I look to the who, what and why for the reason for that video..... Truth be told Bud I'm saddened by what has happened to our Country!

      Delete
    2. You're being manipulated bud......just as they are......its all based upon the divide and conquer model to bring us into the final phase of the empire. This is all modeled on Cloward-Piven.... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloward%E2%80%93Piven_strategy

      It depends on predictable responses from a conditioned public to turn upon itself.........and yes bud ....you are will get EVERYTHING you want and more......much more.........It will be very dark in that room you desire.

      Delete
    3. "With Ben's help the government along with the Fed and FDIC have stole billions out of the small investors interest they would of made in savings and gave that interest directly back to the treasury to pay off the bailouts the banks took. The fed copied England's Libor scandal and our fine politicians went along with this plan.. Even during the Great Depression period , banks paid the people more in interest. Only the government/fed could manipulate the interest rates lower than the rate of inflation along with the big banks."

      This is what's know as trickle down economics.

      Delete
    4. "At this point it’s all smoke and mirrors people, some back door deal has been made that will be a 'solution' for everything. The solution will be a charade for business as usual. Taxes will continue to flow outward in an increasing volume in the form of industry subsidies business 'loans', bailouts, defense spending, sale of land and natural assets for a fraction of their worth and pet projects that add no value to justify their expense. Cash corporations in the form of non-profits will remain a lucrative tax dodge, multi-national corporations will keep financial assets in what ever little country that they can hide them in. I think both parties will let the cliff come, and go. They will invest heavily in the market, and then strike a deal. They are all corrupt.

      By now it's obvious the leaders of both Parties have zero interest in solving our economic problems. If they did have the interest of the American people in mind, we would have seen the positive results a long time ago. Yet it's a mystery how the people continually vote these same lame politicians into key positions where they live in the vacuum of their own personal and political interests and the heck with the rest of the country. How does that work for us?"

      Hehehee.

      Delete
  7. LOL...LOL...LOL

    you know Kil posted the links to sites that posted this 30 days ago..

    I think your thinking is behind the curve..

    LOL...LOL...LOL

    ReplyDelete
  8. as far as you hacking on InLet..

    I was out of the market......befor....1987....befor the 2000.....befor the mid 2007

    I do not understand it.....does any one read the P&E anymore..

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-22/behold-worlds-real-death-cross


    LOL....LOL....LOL

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ME, I do!!!! And the CAPE (10 year P&E) is at bubble levels and the
      MSM types keep talking about the P&E being reasonable (makes me crazy!!).

      Delete
  9. the Black Market......FOFOA

    his words ....not paladins..

    $10,000 gold
    80% wind fall tax

    your net of the sell.....$2000.00

    on the world market.....a %80 discount.....$8000.00

    on the world market...a %60 discount......$6000.00

    you do the math.....LOL

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. no one that owns physical gold will sell at those levels for more reason than just the tax........

      Delete
  10. Must see all of you... The Book Thief... Don't miss it..... Joe is in it.. let's see how many of your pick him out

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. OK how about throwing a proles a bone here.....

      Major part or bit player?

      Delete
  11. Real Estate bubble forming in some areas again..... 100% loans again.....ooooboy

    ReplyDelete
  12. Bread and Circus Weekend News Break:
    No 1 Fast and Furious star Killed in Car Wreck
    No 2 Pats owner gets frisky with reporter
    No 3 Train derailment in NYC 4 dead!!!!
    No 4 Auburn upsets Alabama in Greatest Game ever
    No 5 Kim Kardashian defends Parenting Skills
    No 6 Maria Bello reveals she is gay and longtime girlfriend

    Lastly and NOT in the top six weekend headlines on MSM......China prepared to first strike American populations if provocations to NO Fly zone continue......Ukraine threatening to break into Civil War.......Obama Care NOT fixed on deadline and no end in sight.... You get the point

    ReplyDelete
  13. Newtons Third law of Motion,

    "When one body exerts a force on a second body, the second body simultaneously exerts a force equal in magnitude and opposite in direction to that of the first body."

    Carbon based units usually come off on the losing end of that equation....

    Don't forget Thailand, that's been bubbling for weeks......

    http://rt.com/news/demonstrators-protest-government-thailand-586/

    and Maria Bello is not gay, she's a "Whatever"! I guess we have a new classification I was unaware of...... hehehehehe

    ReplyDelete
  14. From:

    http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20131201/BLOGS02/312019989


    "In case you're wondering how a 25% cut in investment-banking staff would affect New York, well, it would reduce a workforce that the state typically relies on for more than 16% of its tax revenue by about 42,000 employees, to 126,000. That would represent the fewest New Yorkers working on Wall Street since 1984, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics."

    Man its a good thing we are building all those Casino's! Build them and they will come, maybe....

    ReplyDelete
  15. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-02/unilever-ceo-polman-says-emerging-market-slowdown-to-last-years.html

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-01/worst-raw-material-slump-since-08-seen-deepening-commodities.html

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-02/black-friday-weekend-spending-drop-pressures-u-s-stores.html

    I guess bud will find a silver lining in this....hehehehee.......oh let me guess....Starbucks has free whip cream on mochas this month

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. WAIT I have a positive answer......WE NEED TAPER!!!!!!......hehehee .....That'll fix it.......

      Delete
    2. stop the negativity - the talking head on CNBS said that the expanding economy will drive higher stock prices. Hehehehe.

      Delete
    3. Even better deals at Starpuke's..... It's Cyber Monday!!!!!

      http://www.starbucksstore.com/on/demandware.store/Sites-Starbucks-Site/default/mHome-Show?siteID=a4t3jqItZRg-xwiNUGRe6fYbcyBiXvBHGw&cm_mmc=Affiliate-_-a4t3jqItZRg-_-Evergreen-_-na

      Delete
  16. Not many bearish advisors left (These gave up recently):

    Value investor Jeremy Grantham, GMO, November 18, 2013
    Hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry, Eclectica, November 22, 2013
    Market technician Tom McClellan, November 26, 2013

    Investors Intelligence reported last week that the percentage of advisory bears has plunged to 14.4%, lower than at the 2000, 2007, and 1987 peaks

    “The U.S. stock market now stands at its highest level ever. By most measures, it is as pricey as ’29, or ’68, or 2000. Upon this sea of easy cash and credit, practically every stock market on the face of the planet floats higher and higher. Even some of the greatest and most experienced market observers … have finally given up fighting ‘em. They’ve decided that this really is a New Era of New Capitalism and that this is the time to join ‘em. This worldwide bubble is more worldly and more bubbly than any in history, they say. It may get much, much bigger. And they have good reasons to think so… all those trillions of new money. How can they help but blow this bubble up even bigger – so big even the moon will have to get out of the way. But wait … isn’t there an old market adage: The bull market is over when the last bear throws in the towel? Are there more bears still out there? We don’t know. But there can’t be many of them.”

    Sound familiar? It should -

    Bill Bonner, The Daily Reckoning, June 25 2007

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Inlet...you and I lived through several of those bull market and collapses.....This isn't even close to looking legitimate....at least they had good employment......"relatively normalized" interest rates.....and "relatively normalized" earnings numbers. This (as you know) is a Barnum and Bailey three ring circus masking a total world economic collapse......and there are PEOPLE BELIEVING IT.........heheheheh.........the hedge fund boyz are running super scared. I've never seen ANYTHING like this ponzi and you and I both know how this ends......NOBODY is gonna get out of that little door............

      Delete
    2. Feels like 2000 more and more every day. As you point out Kliguy, maybe worse. At least in 2000 and 2007 we had some strenght in the economy to "justify" buying stocks, but 2013/2014? Interesting that small and mid cap stocks are more overpriced than in 2000(per Hussman). Only question is do I make it to the other side with my sanity!

      Delete
  17. I agree it is becoming crazy, but I don't feel it has reached the pure lunacy of the Dot-com era. Also, I still question just how many or how much "the sheep" have really bought into the market yet.
    I suspect that we will get some pullbacks, but I still think the market goes higher.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. yes doc and apparently a lot of bears agree with you now.......hmmmmmmmm

      Delete
    2. I agree that the 2000 era day traders etc is missing, but in many cases valuations are near 2000 levels, and as I said mid and small cap stocks are more overvalued than then. Look at Hussman's analysis of the market in terms of log period behavior. I'm not sure that we need the 2000 crazyness to justify a top, I think that environment was once in a life time event. Certainly we did not see that type of stock market behavior in 2007. Seems to me that we can have a bear market without the market hysteria of 2000 to proceed it. Every sign of a major top is in (valuation, sentiment), as it has been for a while, I think the market melt up that many (including the bears) have predicted is/has happened.

      Delete
    3. Yes exactly......you may get the "price" rise since it is manipulated but can you entice in the sideline money. I think they do but NOT with a melt up.....at least not yet. They need to have a "correction" that clears the way for the budfoxes to go "all in" .....then they can get the dumb money loaded for the final kill.... THAT is how they will do it........they need to give them a nice "discount".........hehehehehe......I mean really....who can afford not to buy with a "discount".......and then they really tank it......and that is called "trapped" money.......then if bud isn't all in.......he will on that tank.......and that is when they start taking the dumb money down and down and down......just like the miners........

      Delete
  18. Jeez has the AMA redefined "Lunacy"? Sure does look like it to me but hey what do I know.......

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AMA was taken over by the insurance/pharma/hospital lobby years ago......no docs participate anymore.... even the docs figured that game out

      Delete
    2. CAT trading at $85.... They make cool stuff that's used to mine raw materials to make other cool stuff and also build cool stuff.....

      PCLN trading at $1185??? Just what the fk do they do???? Take a cut of room charges......

      Lunacy, naaaa

      Delete
  19. One more point on the stock market, the weekly RSI for the S&P has been above 70 (overbought) for 15 weeks this year, and has yet to go below 50 RSI. Even in 1999/2000 S&P did not trade above 70 on the weekly RSI.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Phew dodged a major bullet selling some DUST Puts on Friday I had bought on Tuesday. I would be sick today if I had held those.

    Still holding a ton of EXK, yuck! There's one more gap I think left below so let's just get it overwith.

    ReplyDelete
  21. I see above bud is reading ZH again......hehehhehee so I'll post his favorite banker's rosy forecast

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-02/goldman-slashes-q4-2013-gdp-growth-13

    ReplyDelete
  22. DOES ANYONE remember their forecasts for the past several years now.........and EVERY FOCHIN YEAR they have to ratchet down their GDP with TRILLION AFTER TRILLION BEING PRINTED........and someone out there still believes this three card monty????? AND the GDP numbers are lies to keep them positive

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Everything is cool in bible school Kli. I can run out and buy a $200 LED 37 inch TV that I don't need right now! That's progress ;)

      Delete
    2. Repeat........

      Lunacy, naaaaa

      Delete
  23. Oh funny story I've been able to mine about 250 Feathercoins, just sold 150 of them on Ebay for a little over $300. Would like to convert that into physical as I think that's just hilarious. :) Too bad premiums are 20%+ in most places. Yuck!

    ReplyDelete
  24. Question: Just how many times can gold be sold on "taper talk"!?! Market action is really absurd. Reality is that gold started down in ernest after QE infinity was announced. Fed action along with BOJ madness started an equity bubble that has drawn money away from other markets, gold etc. (Interesting that most if not all emerging markets are down this year, this is "suppost" to be where world growth comes from while developed recessionary markets are at record levels) What gold needs is stock bubble to break, I don't see a rally to speak of until then. So the irony is that maybe gold needs a QE taper if that takes the air out of the stock market.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. number of factors involved making this the most "counterintuitive" move in history. PTB learned from previous experience that gold's price is a major neon light for the monetary/fiat system and MUST be controlled at all costs. Secondly the miners represent a threat to general equities with smart money anticipating the QE degradation of the economic system. Thirdly just imagine what can be done to the "ownership" of the silver and gold mines with this general price destruction. Do you really believe the PTB are sitting idly by while nakedly shorting them into extinction?? They certainly need more physical and of course complete vertical integration has ALWAYS been to their liking.

      Delete
    2. So are you saying that PTB is accumulating now? At what level would this be complete? Seems as though they have had ample time and price to purchase all they want.

      Delete
    3. The PTB already own many mines as their bankers/bond holders.........you'll never find it in the layers of holding companies. So it isn't necessarily a common shareholder problem for them if they drive a good mine or exploration junior completely BK......they are owners you see.......already. They need the gold.........the bullion . They want the control. and YES bankers are accumulating shares at these levels in many of the senior companies and juniors that aren't designated for the "scrap pile" or the bankers back pockets. If you can distinguish which or which......then you are ahead of me.

      Delete
    4. Think of this in terms of "predators".......this is the law of the jungle.......watch out for debt in your miners....if they can find miners with debt then they have a chance to put blood in the water. This is the ultimate predatory end game we've entered and there is no alpha male ever seen on this earth that can compete with these boyz.

      Delete
  25. Don't disagree that there may be people who want gold to stay down, why was gold able to rise from 250 to 1900 and HUI from 35 to 600? The recent price action looks very much like late 1990s as stock bubble blew out after Greenspan flooded the world with liquidity for Y2K. Gold and miners started rising then as S&P was peaking. Or 1976 as the stock market rolled over gold started up having fallen during that stock market rally.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Hello Kli, I see that your miners are taking it on the chin today and so is gold. It's also nice to know that you have figured it all out on my behalf. Once "they" correct this market and give us a discount, I will go all in, is that correct? I'm so glad you are here to make these decisions for me. I mean, which astute investor, who has made a ton of money already, can't wait to go all in near all-time highs once again?

    And how nice of you to completely ignore that ZH story about the parasites?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Just havin' a lil fun bud.......and I thought you told us here recently NOT to read ZH.........you need to make up your mind whether we should read it or not.......hehehehehe.......you see bud......the parasite story is even worse than you think......but you miss in WHAT way....they've designed this entire collapse to create JUST what you saw on those vids.......chaos......fighting..........Its all divide and conquer.....and it works very effectively....You assume all of those people were just "welfare parasites" but with what metric do you base your analysis on? hehehehehehe.......Its all about parasites for you bud but did you ever stop and consider WHY they are parasites and WHO set them up for their dumbed down parasitic existence???? NO you did not.....you just superficially paint the entire matter in a simplistic manner that feed right into their game.

      Delete
    2. just don't start giving us links from KWN bud or I may think you've completely lost your mind....;-)

      Delete
  27. Kli, even a blind squirrel can find a nut, as the saying goes. I was surprised to finally see a ZH article I agree with. I never said I don't read ZH or KWN. I just don't agree with what's often times fear mongering, hyperbole, and simply a too depressing take on every piece of news.

    I'm very aware of who helped create this parasite class. I strongly believe that the welfare system when initially conceived was well intentioned, but it has now gone out control. I still think it comes to down to a sense of personal responsibility and self worth for each individual. I will never become a leech like Lucy, and neither will you. How can we get more people to take pride in doing an honest day's work and not rely on handouts for their entire lives?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm game bud......WHO created the parasite class and WHY....can you trace it to any particular party or individual etc.

      Delete
    2. The Roman Emperors both past and present started the corn dole which persist in its modern form the EBT card.

      "I consider it good policy that the prince did not neglect the theatre or the circus and arena, as he well knew that there are two things which the Roman applaud especially—the distribution of grain, and games. The neglect of the important thing [grains] causes great harm, of the frivolous thing [entertainment] greater hatred—the crowd hungering more for games than for bread, because by the gift to the people [congiarium] only those who are authorized to receive the grain will be gratified, while by the games the whole population is pacified."
      —Fronto, Prim. Hist., p. 249, ed., Barthold Georg Niebuhr.[4]

      Delete
    3. It was reported that the games were so integrated into the mass's psyche that as the germanic hoards were engaged in full battle with the Rome mercenary army just 5 miles outside of Rome the games were still filled with viewers ignoring their own impending demise. In other words the "games" were so effective in "mollifying" the inhabitants of the empire, they actually helped to contribute to its defeat as the inhabitants would not even "leave their television sets" to defend their city.

      Delete
  28. Why don't You tell us Kli You think that You are the authority on everything ..You know it all I'm Kliguy the Great.....The thing is so far anyway You have been wrong on just about everything. I remember just a few weeks ago you said if the 10 year goes to 2.75 it's over it's 2.80 now and it's not over. This is going to go on and on and on as long as they have a keyboard.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Seems a little harsh...;-) but yes the 10 year is toast now and these are indeed desperate times in the bond market.....IF you think I measure its decline in days or weeks then of course that would be absurd......the coupon move on the 10 year from its high this year has been huge and I see nothing other than extreme QE that can keep it from hanging a 4 handle next year on before 2014 is over and that is NOT going to go well. However if you think all is well in ponzi land then of course I cannot change your course. I sleep well and will try and continue doing so....;-)

      Delete
    2. Yes I was a little Harsh...sorry...Sometimes this shit just gets to me.

      Delete
    3. for me to pretend the miner trade was a good trade is absurd. I put my money where my mouth was, fully aware of the risk from the PTB. I was right on the macro and WRONG on the paper price. This is a ponzi and like all ponzies it will crash........better to prepare than get caught in the noise.

      Delete
    4. anyway its getting tough all over

      http://www.myfoxny.com/story/24111247/german-plan-to-ban-flat-rate-offers-in-brothels

      Delete
    5. Kli's voicing his thoughts on his own blog. If you don't want to read them then don't? Not sure what there is to be upset about... We all must make our own decisions. That being said I can understand the frustration as this trade has been a massive grind. But Kli has said all along that they don't want us in this trade and seeing all I have with my own eyes I'm inclined to agree.

      Delete
  29. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-02/artists-impression-what-fed-exit-would-look

    ReplyDelete
  30. Hope everyone had a nice Thanksgiving.
    Went to see The Hunger Games II, couldn't read the books, they seemed all too real. Red, the references to Rome there are obvious to me. My question is why is Hollywood promoting revolution right now? Big Gov is worse than horrible in these books/movies...President Snow is CONtrolling the sheeple in the "districts" through brute force, but they cheer the games. Interesting times...the most disturbing thing about my week was learning that an elitist REALLY does think the masses should be controlled and by the military at that! This is a brilliant man I am talking about. Very disturbing and I am not making this up. He is an Indian who grew up in London, teaches at a University and his close relative is at the top of the heap in the most important Inv. Bank in London! It blew me away...and about ruined my dinner. Others at the table were arguing "that is the way the world is" so just accept it and move on. Talk about feeling powerless (but what else is new?). I guess they all agree with Bud and Kindle?

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    Replies
    1. Don't make too much of his statement......It only reflects his own generational cast system indoctrination. If you want to see a great movie out now ......DO NOT miss The Book Thieve........Great Movie....Great Message.....see if you can find the parallels to today.....hint.......ITS ALL ABOUT US TODAY....every bit of it

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    2. Yeah I was terribly uncomfortable during and after the whole night after seeing Hunger Games. I couldn't help but feel that could easily be us.

      Delete
  31. Wow Kindle Lachenman, that was indeed harsh. Even I don't think Kli is wrong about everything all the time, just miners and a few other things some of the time, hehe..

    Kli, regarding welfare, I'm not sure how far back the origins go, but maybe the English Poor Laws would be a good starting point? Anyway, I think until the Great Depression, what you mostly had in this country were private help organizations and churches to assist the down and out, with some minimal government programs. Even after the Great Depression when government involvement started to grow, the assistance was primarily aimed at widowed women and orphans, certainly a noble goal. Both parties have played a role in the increase of the various entitlement programs after that, but in my estimation the biggest damage to this country, the one that has created generations of parasites to this day, is the Great Society program by LBJ, a well known lapdog of the banksters, btw.

    As to why, well, you create a permanent underclass of leeches dependent on the government for all their needs, you take all incentives away to actually be a productive member of society, slowly destroy the middle class, it becomes so much easier to rule over an ever growing herd of worthless sheep, doesn't it?

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    Replies
    1. on the run today bud......but can comment on you last sentence as to why.........yes that's true but you did not address the full conclusion you were headed towards....and that is its a plannned implosion of this country.......always has been

      Delete
  32. Hmmmm, bad news continues to pile on:

    http://tech.mit.edu/V133/N58/long3.html

    "In the U.S., figures released on Monday showed factories operating at the most robust pace since the spring of 2011, and well above the level economists had expected for the month. Separate surveys out Monday in Europe and China also offered encouraging signs in a sector often considered a bellwether for the global economy."

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  33. Ahhh, go easy on Kindle, you know there is always someone at the dinner table that raises their voice when the discussion gets animated, besides this subject matter can and will wear you out if you don't have the right mind set. Now about that mind set.... hehehehe

    Bud,

    After all this conversation you till believe their numbers and worst off that bit came from the "THE NEW YORK TIMES", no further comment necessary!

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  34. Competition, well now we can have that in a "Free Market" now can we.........

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-03/another-central-bank-warns-bitcoin-risks

    "If this small market cap vicrtual currency is such a "gimmick" as some have said, why are the world's central banks so afraid?"

    ReplyDelete
  35. Phil Davis wrote today that he continues to believe that the Fed will keep meddling with the markets. Thus, the present selloff is likely temporary.
    So, maybe this is the pullback we have been waiting for. I suspect that it will be bought.

    ReplyDelete
  36. "meddling with the markets".......hehehhehee........I think he may wish to choose his verbs more judiciously.........totally manipulating seems a little more accurate.....anyway it looks like the corporate welfare recipients are getting in their warnings early

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-03/richemont-chairman-warns-global-economy-very-precarious-there-will-be-tears

    ReplyDelete
  37. Kli,

    If you liked the movie, you MUST read the book! The language is just beautiful, powerful and heartbreaking…which is one of the messages of the book ;)…The power of words to influence, for both good AND evil. I’m afraid to watch the movie, I don’t want it to ruin something so perfect for me, but I may cave in this weekend haha! There are many other important themes in the book; self sacrifice, courage in the face of evil, the beauty in everything, etc.

    My favorite quote in the book, not sure if it made it into the movie…

    “I wanted to tell the book thief many things, about beauty and brutality. But what could I tell her about those things that she didn't already know? I wanted to explain that I am constantly overestimating and underestimating the human race-that rarely do I ever simply estimate it. I wanted to ask her how the same thing could be so ugly and so glorious, and its words and stories so damning and brilliant.”

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The movie was spectaculary beautiful and I was shocked at how closely they matched some of the characters....They did not go into as much detail on the "death" character.......and they portrayed the mother in a kinder light.......but If you have not read the book.........see the movie first and read the book second

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  38. I feel compelled to chime in here to remind those who are critical of Kli that he has been saying, for the longest time, that they are going to make the PM/Miner trade so painful that most would be out before the big run. He has said this on so many occasions, more than I can count on my two hands, but perhaps those who are now criticizing haven't been around here long enough to have seen those posts.

    So from my point of view, an honest and informed one, he has been spot on.

    That said, if guys like Bud are making a killing in the market and are skillful enough (or lucky enough) to jump out of stocks and into PMs and miners just before their big move, more power to them but there's a huge risk they are taking in that they may wake up one morning with stock futures limit down, PM prices through the roof with physical PMs no longer available.

    In that scenario, much of the gains made in stocks would be lost without an ability to buy insurance against the calamity that is headed our way.

    The percentage chance of calamity is 100%. The only question is timing and in what form it arrives.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. thanks sks........I made myself very unpopular on some blogs warning two years ago this was all controlled by the PTB and to be very cautious. Unfortunately from a trading standpoint I was just not prepared for how right my own warnings were........I knew the risks and am not at all shocked........you play in the casino and you have to be prepared to lose a hand or two or three or ........well ....tides turn ......so stay tuned

      Delete
  39. Always looking for a great book/movie so thanks for that. Is it the Book Thief (singular) or Thieves (plural) just in case I cannot get to the movie.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, The Book Thief. Highly recommend it sister, and I don't usually have the patience for thick books, but it's like reading poetry.

      I'll check out the movie this weekend, it better be good Kli! lol

      Delete
    2. Sis,

      Amazon for Kindle..

      http://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/B00GCE3TCE/ref=mp_s_a_1_2?qid=1386087891&sr=8-2&pi=SY200

      Just ordered it, since there's a scarcitie of bones round here...... hehehehehe

      Delete
  40. Since we are on the subject of the "Parasitic Class".........

    https://www.change.org/petitions/bank-of-america-stop-refusing-to-accept-my-payment-be-a-leader-and-help-change-this-practice

    When you get the chance Bud tell whats the difference between "Lucy" and "BOA"?

    ReplyDelete
  41. NOT funny and NOT going to end well

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-03/brits-draw-down-record-amounts-savings-cover-rising-cost-living

    ReplyDelete
  42. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-03/gm-channel-stuffing-surges-second-highest-ever

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Build them and they will buy them, maybe....

      for the Promises, Promises file:

      http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-03/detroit-bankruptcy-judge-rules-allow-pension-cuts

      That ain't gonna help the local economy, future EBT card holder's I guess....

      Delete
  43. This Bud is for you:

    http://theshortsideoflong.blogspot.ca/

    Other popular sentiment surveys are also flashing sell signals. These include Consensus Inc, Market Vane Bullish Percentage, Hulbert Stock Sentiment Index, Daily Sentiment Index and so forth. Citigroup's own sentiment index is indicating an 80% probability of negative returns in the coming 12 months (chart above). However, during vertical run ups and buying frenzies, prices can continue to rise despite such high optimism. This is usually known as euphoria and it seems we are experiencing one right now.

    ReplyDelete
  44. http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2013/12/karen-hudes-former-world-bank-lawyer.html

    ReplyDelete
  45. The Keystone Speculator wrote today that as long as the SPX stays above 1725 (about a 5% pullback), the dip buyers will keep buying. Losing the 1725 level will lead to more selling.

    So,..."The Book Thief" is a good read. It is not too late to ask Santa for a copy.

    ReplyDelete
  46. Gambling on a pop in GDX with some DEC 21 calls. Stop at today's low.

    ReplyDelete
  47. http://www.alt-market.com/articles/1845-gun-confiscation-notices-go-out-in-new-york

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jfyi: Currently and I use the word extreamly loosely those letters pertain only to those gun owners in the jurisdiction of NYC and not NYS......

      NYC's gun laws/regulations are insane......

      However there's some hope:

      http://scopeny.org/nysafeact_law_suits.html

      Delete
    2. Nothing here at my end of the state. Deer hunters have been out in full force too and nothing in the papers here about gun confiscation.

      Delete
    3. Actually Doc they tried up your way in the beginning of the year..... Sneaky Bastards,

      http://freedomoutpost.com/2013/04/ny-gun-confiscation-starts-may-set-precedent-for-gun-confiscastion-across-the-nation/

      Thankfully this chit got stepped on for the time being, however mandatory background check for ammo in 2014 is going to present some issues hopefully she of these lawsuits put a stop to this chit.....

      Delete
    4. Tom, Yes--there was some noise earlier, but it has been quiet.

      The southern tier counties such as Allegany, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, Wyoming, & Steuben are very pro-gun. Lot's of hunters/hunting land. Even Erie County. If you drive around here, "Repeal the Safe Act" signs are still on a lot of lawns.

      Delete
  48. very timely and very good

    http://blog.milesfranklin.com/the-definition-of-money-2

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  49. Wow... what the HELL was that volume at the end of day on GDX? Freaking massive.

    ReplyDelete
  50. Sold all my AAPL shares today. The plan was to hold thru January, but the stock is up almost 80 points since I bought it, and you cannot leave those kinds of profits on the table in this casino.

    ReplyDelete
  51. this is the real battle and the bubble that cannot be popped or you will see some things you never dreamed you'd see

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-03/bofaml-warns-rising-treasury-volatility-suggests-either-higher-rates-or-lower-stocks

    ReplyDelete
  52. no matter how you serve a shit sandwich its still shit

    http://www.brotherjohnf.com/archives/248094

    ReplyDelete
  53. http://financialsurvivalnetwork.com/2013/12/andy-hoffman-the-cycle-of-lunacy-continues/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. how long is that cycle, maybe I can add it to my charts. ;)

      Delete
    2. dunno......can't listen to it til i get home........;-)

      Delete
  54. Its been confirmed......

    I'm an Idiot!

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-03/wisdom-looking-idiot-today

    ReplyDelete
  55. http://www.kitco.com/ind/Conner/2013-12-03-The-Next-Black-Swan-A-Dollar-Crisis.html

    ReplyDelete
  56. new post TOMORROW nite.........Wednesday nite........comment away on this thread til then

    ReplyDelete
  57. O/T. If you've ever worked in retail here in the good ole US of A this sort of thing happens all the time but no rental fee, just need a tag gun to put back the price tag.... hehehehehe and you thought you were getting something brand new!

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-03/cash-strapped-europes-latest-craze-rented-clothes

    ReplyDelete
  58. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-03/world-upside-down-cio-buffetts-genre-issues-direst-warning-yet

    ReplyDelete
  59. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-03/pc-shipments-collapse-fastest-pace-record

    ReplyDelete
  60. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/recovery-pauses-november-euro-zone-113842742.html

    ReplyDelete
  61. Sold my GDX calls for a nice 15% profit. Could continue to run but after seeing what happened from Friday to Monday you have to take gains when you're given them. Continuing to hold EXK long term though.

    ReplyDelete
  62. Bought AG, if it breaks it's 52 week low I'm out.

    ReplyDelete
  63. Listened to Bloomberg radio on commute this AM ...and they had an analyst on discussing the Government new home sales today the headline was BIG INCREASE...... he was.NOT a doomer either and he broke down how the Government made the numbers look good.....for one THEY DIDNT COUNT THE CANCELLATIONS in the October numbers and he said there was a VERY large number of cancellations......Bloomberg didnt cut him off and even had an extended discussion..........hehehhehehe.......watta mess.........

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They've been fudging number so badly now that nobody believes them. I love when people tell me there's been no inflation according to gov figures. I'm like "You know they don't count basically ANYTHING we use everyday right?"

      Delete
    2. I think what caught me off guard was just how objective he was as an analyst for Metro____ Most of the time they try and have guests on that cover this up but he was very straight forward with the info and allowed the listener to judge just how reliable the statistics "really" were......AND he didn't get cut off as CNBS does or talked over........

      Delete
  64. bot silver bullion today and Gainesville NOT busy got right in and orders are now shipped immediately......4 days delivery........

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    Replies
    1. Nice how they stepped it down below 19 @ 3:30 or so in the am!!!!! Dirt bags.....

      Delete
    2. I couldn't buy yesterday so I knew there would be a little "premium" added today........hehehehehe

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  65. Let them eat cake.......

    http://www.cnn.com/2013/12/04/politics/reid-obamacare-staff/index.html

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  66. Hey Kindle this might lift your spirits some, hehehehe like they needed to study this......

    http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/the-hardwired-difference-between-male-and-female-brains-could-explain-why-men-are-better-at-map-reading-8978248.html

    Duh.......

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  67. What just happened? Nice Hubz, too bad you didn't hold on but don't blame ya for taking what you got.
    Yes, the only place to be for Obamacare mess is working for the gov't. It's the government, they do what they want; Harry admitting his staff cannot afford it but who's counting? Is only CNN reporting this?

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  68. Thanks sister, with options I've learned it's very hard to time them perfectly and just take a nice quick profit when you get it. Plus picked up a nice chunk of AG at hopefully the bottom. Not sure what's going on but I love the action, closed the gap on GDX from the morning and rocketed up. Many miners have closed gaps on their July lows as well.

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  69. Hubz and all, fwiw on gdx: http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1386170506.php
    Dare we hope? LOL.

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  70. I know timelines are tough to predict, especially at the end of super cycles ;)
    But... any predictions for the new year that is about to come upon us? or maybe the first 3-6 months into the new year? Silver? Dow? Gold? Interest rates?
    "The Fed is printing 29 cents of every dollar that Uncle Sam is spending.”
    how long can they can continue to hide this and pass it off to future generations?
    When will interest rates finally spike?

    http://realestate.msn.com/blogs/post--chinese-buying-up-california-housing
    http://www.theburningplatform.com/2013/12/03/more-children-left-behind/
    Ship jobs overseas and make a lot of wealthy foreigners which end up coming here and driving the price of housing up up up. Not only do you have to complete with monopolies here but wealthy foreigners.

    Even Lloyd Blankfein says

    "This country does a great job of creating wealth, but not a great [job] of distributing it.”
    Who's job is it to distribute it???? You can't make this stuff up!!! Doing God's work is tuff stuff.
    Seems it's all about how long the manipulation can go on, seems to be wars between speculators vs savers, creditors vs debtors, don't underestimate how long these guys can drag it forward though, but like Kli says there can be a flash event.

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    Replies
    1. Sorry for the following but I felt it would be appropriate to put up again Old Hickory.......This is the BEAR of all bears and it will be much worse than the 29 crash due to many factors not the least of which is the interwoven complexities of ACTUAL markets such as food/energy/commods.....The US will collapse not from its derivatives but from its loss of the rule of law and outright corruption.........ie. LOSS OF CONFIDENCE.........I am much more concerned for these issues than whether the metal trade turns today or next year or whenever......There is no new paradigm, only a collapse and a phoenix arising from the ashes......Its the interim I worry for.

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    2. These supercycles form vacuums and create the perfect conditions for tyranny. Human nature during Empire collapse turn toward tyranny.....not away....Our challenge is not in the future it is here and now....

      Delete
    3. I know there is probably a lot of redundancy as everyone has talked about these topics at great length, everyone is curious how this will unfold. This clips hits on a lot of the points you've talked about. How many people would hit the red button to take out all the fraud if it affects their retirement? How many people have woken up to some degree and extracted themselves from complicity in the system? People still do have the power to shun, a nation wide strike would cause change, so is this a slow burn or an epic event forcing change, I take it you are placing odds on the latter. This is all very fascinating because we are seeing it real time and not just reading about it. At what point does the corruption affect the confidence for people to wake up to affect change. Does it take a collapse to go back to decentralization vs continual centralization? Not easy questions for me anyway.

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gssxv35TA-8#t=584

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    4. See post later tonight old hickory

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  71. "How many people have woken up to some degree and extracted themselves from complicity in the system".
    I think some people are waking up and they are finding that they are woven deeply into the system. How do they extract themselves?? Once they realize they can't, many will allow the present state of affairs to continue. What choices are there??
    So, I think the markets trend higher, Gold & Silver trade sideways to down, and interests rates sideways to slowly rise. A time will come when it collapses.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I took a year off in Hawaii to do my part, it was rough. Priorities :)

      Could we see Dow 17000 or a deflationary collapse at some point? Can we maintain this even strain while everything becomes more unaffordable? 2014 should be interesting, but this may be able to go on for years and years? It's even surprised some experts. Maybe sideways is a safe bet,

      Delete
  72. Nice to see someone else's interpretation is similar to mine:

    http://www.safehaven.com/article/32002/sp500-wall-and-kitchin-cycle-review

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Inlet,
      Your charts are sharper looking though.

      Delete
  73. Not good.......

    http://johngaltfla.com/wordpress/category/u-s-news/

    ReplyDelete
  74. Kli posted this link earlier. http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2013/12/karen-hudes-former-world-bank-lawyer.html
    Excellent. The first 2 blocks are nothing new and too long, but the 3rd interview block is only 10 minutes and every reader should listen to it.

    ReplyDelete