Sunday, December 15, 2013

WAR!


Perhaps its hyperbole, but the drumbeat to war is still unmistakable.  Therefore one must ask if this is just another conditioning process, preparing the population for a nationalistic fervor to cover the financial implosion, or is there a genuine underlying clash of ideology building between sovereign nations? 

Where is that charismatic leader rising from the ashes of a desperate nation to lead the ideological battle for the hearts and minds propelled by the shed blood of their youth and the innocents of war? I don't see him or her? At least not yet.....but I hear the drumbeat.

So one may say the war games in the China Sea represent only a diversion for nations with leaders under pressure from their own economic woes, or possibly they are leaders and populations with genuine hatred engendered by their history heinous war crimes. On the other hand these old scores do provide a fertile ground for faux nationalism to be built by technocratic leaders who's only loyalty is to themselves and there own power base. This is where it becomes more complex however. 

Rather than ascribing a simplistic broad brush of  ism versus ism, a more interesting look at the pol's power bases is in order. For instance East vs West. Are the bankers controlling the East competing with the bankers controlling the West? Will there be a completion of the destruction of the U.S. so that Europe and North America align completely? Has the deal with the Western and Eastern bankers already been made? It is rather interesting that our "Pivot to the East" policy seems to coincide perfectly with the timing of hostilities between our "trading brethren" Japan, China, and South Korea and their technocratic leaders. Maybe our carefully designed transfer of technology and manufacturing to China over the past 40 years was designed specifically for us to just destroy it all in a senseless nuclear conflagration because of their "ism" (whatever that ism is now)?  After all, just look at our recent incursions throughout the Middle East and the destruction and instability left in that policy's wake. Wash, rinse, and repeat in operation again? Supercycle cleaning? Nature's revenge? 

Or is it all just greedy, pathetic, human nature, displayed in some type of random, violent World melodrama, trying to end in a brutal cataclysmic conflagration?  Generals being fired by the dozens. Soft martial law transitioning into hard martial law. Let's not even go into the surveillance issues. The 2 billion rounds of hollow point ammunition, the clampdown on whistleblowers, the militarization of the police..........nahhh......its just the way things have always been and its all just taking care of business. How's the water frogs?







84 comments:

  1. thank gold this can't happen here......sarcasm off.....obtw......WHO do ya think promoted this?

    http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/12/15/21912426-syria-and-its-refugees-brace-for-the-freezing-cold?lite

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  2. "Thank Gold"??? or "Thank God"??? In either case, history repeats itself and what do we do? Add to the misery and suffering.......

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    1. No we CREATE the misery and suffering...........WE

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    2. Didn't we try this in the 80's in a land due east? Do we ever learn from history?? Yes I stand corrected not "ADD" but "WE"!!!

      http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-16/us-officials-meet-syrian-extremist-rebels-including-al-qaeda-forces

      and what is McVain doing in the Ukraine??

      He brings nothing but Badddddd Juju.....

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  3. BTW anyone that cares ......the recent takedown of the market probably decreases the chance of taper this week....BUT just beware the ultimate screw to the unaware would be a taper announcement ......that sucks in even more shorts and then use the recent downturn and selling on the news to just crush some more shorts and rip the heads off the "sucker money" short.....dangerous market now and they are taking no prisoners.......OR...they may just pull the market down into the announcement and say......MOAR money and again SQUEEEZE the short sellers.........either way the recent takedown is setting up for a short squeeze.....

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  4. http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022473474

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  5. Just to note, Phil Davis wrote again today about staying in cash from now until the end of the year.

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  6. I was positioned right for this one.....(for a change)

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/1900311-should-brigus-shareholders-accept-primero-minings-offer?source=yahoo

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    1. Congrats Kli! I doubt this is the last we'll see of these sorts of things. Miners are too cheap not to get gobbled up.

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    2. Up 22% currently. Encouraged by this mornings action. A gap up, a quick close and now running a bit.

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  7. I feel fairly confident there will be no taper in December. Of course it could happen but I wouldn't put the odds at more than 10%. Market is already shaky, the ten year is very close to 3%, and it's crucial month for CONfidence :)

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    1. I give taper a 0% chance. The threat of taper is all they've got. If they were to taper they'd be doing it knowing that they are going to have to increase QE soon after. At that point, the threat of taper won't even work and the last tool in their toolbox will be gone.

      Can't happen.

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    2. They can't until they can, but I agree with you they won't.....

      On to another topic..... Tearing up the fabric of society, you knew this was just a matter of time!

      http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/12/14/Federal-Judge-Rules-Laws-Against-Polygamy-Unconstitutional

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  8. What is going on with our lil friend SSRI? :)

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    1. its broke out and may be in play .....somebody knows sumthin'

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    2. I watched it this am and moved half my BRD into it

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  9. Sold DUST puts. May re-enter post Taper crap. Stalking TWTR Puts now :)

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    1. yeah ......see what the first move is on the FOMC announcement for any PM option trade.

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    2. Agree, I'll risk missing the beginning of a move up rather than getting smashed on an option trade the wrong way.

      In TWTR Puts... *gulp* haha.... I can't believe what weeklies are going for when JAN are not much more and you get a LOT more time.

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    3. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SSRI&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p47306078752&a=242315566&listNum=1

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  10. All dips in Precious metals are being bought by "strong hands" now. This is a process that is playing out right in front of us, but we're numbed by the crushing pain brought by the paper miner trade. That game is to destroy the miners and force buyouts like BRD today and put the bullion into the "strong hands".......This is a much bigger process playing out between the Big Banks and the Currency wars between the West and the East. There are so many "faux agreements" and "REAL agreements" made behind the scenes that it is impossible to tell which are genuine between the actual participants. One thing does remain KNOWN and that is the East is accumulating gold and that should tell you all you really have to know.......gl

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  11. "Secondly, a hegemon must have a large and growing economy. "

    The current and any bidders to be the next, lack this critical point to keep the world out of chaos under Hegemon Stability Theory. Especially with pulling forward future consumption and production at a parabolic rate.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hegemonic_stability_theory

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    1. and therein lies the movement of gold from "East to West"........as preparations are made for the next hegemon......CHINA? and this seems to be the choice of the bankers as they let the gold from the West bullion banks flow ..........maybe a nice War before the exchange?

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  12. China bringing textile plants here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2013/12/16/4549380/chinese-executive-says-hes-bringing.html#.Uq-vM0CA3IU]
    Look at those incentives which have not been offered to American cos. :(

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    Replies
    1. This is how those dollar reserves will find their way back

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  13. http://www.thenation.com/blog/177598/sad-decline-60-minutes-continues-weeks-nsa-whitewash#

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  14. miners look like they're moving up this week .......question is do we get a headfake move first tomorrow before/after the announcement? would make a nice play if they did Hubz

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    1. Yes just so hard to tell. They can bring out the "We're looking hard at taperin soon just not this time." bs and cause another raid. I'm just going to sit and wait and miss the first move good or bad. Getting frustrated with my TWTR play not really moving like I thought it would.

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    2. Maybe but that game has been coordinated to "work" by dumping massive naked shorts to run the stops on paper bullion holders........that that game appears long in the tooth and the chinese have benefited greatly. My hope is the DO beat it down...because I can continue to use fiat to exchange for metal and just maybe budfox gets his 1000 gold or below.......I doubt this occurs but silver in this range has been very nice. From a purely speculative gambling point of view, the move today leads me to believe they start taking it up very soon. IF they smack it hard immediately after the announcement, I would be tempted to roll the dice long on um.....If they don't taper then they will come out with as you say "we're all leaning now towards taper" blah blah blah.........but that will come the next day if gold rips higher........ie if you catch it right, sell the rip....Most here are like me stuck in the trade and there is no reason yet to think this is the bottom until we see key break out indicators. 1500 would be nice

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  15. Main article: Rape in the Bosnian War

    War rape occurred as a matter of official orders as part of ethnic cleansing, to displace the targeted ethnic group.[49]

    During the Bosnian War, so-called "rape camps", aimed at the birth of a new generation of Serb children, were reportedly used. The purpose of these camps was to impregnate the Bosnian and Croatian women. Because of the patrilineal make-up of their society, in which children inherit their father's ethnicity, this was used as a method of ethnic cleansing. In the camps, women were kept in confinement until the late stages of their pregnancies.

    According to the Tresnjevka Women's Group, more than 35,000 women and children were held in such Serb-run "rape camps".[50][51][52] Dragoljub Kunarac, Radomir Kovač, and Zoran Vuković were convicted of crimes against humanity for rape, torture, and enslavement committed during the Foča massacres.[53]

    The evidence of the magnitude of rape in Bosnia and Herzegovina prompted the ICTY to deal openly with these abuses.[54] Reports of sexual violence during the Bosnian War (1992–1995) and Kosovo War (1998–1999) perpetrated by the Serbian regular and irregular forces have been described as "especially alarming".[50] The NATO-led Kosovo Force documented rapes of Albanian, Roma and Serbian women by Serbs and members of the Kosovo Liberation Army.[55]

    Others have estimated that during the Bosnian War between 20,000 and 50,000 women, mainly Muslim, were raped.[56][57] A Commission of Experts appointed in October 1992 by the United Nations concluded that:


    Rape has been reported to have been committed by all sides to the conflict. However, the largest number of reported victims have been Bosnian Muslims, and the largest number of alleged perpetrators have been Bosnian Serbs. There are few reports of rape and sexual assault between members of the same ethnic group.[58]

    Although men also became victim of sexual violence, war rape was disproportionately directed against women who were (gang) raped in the streets, in their homes and/or in front of family members.

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  16. War rape in the Yugoslav Wars has often been characterized as genocide. Rape perpetrated by Serb forces served to destroy cultural and social ties of the victims and their communities.[59] Serbian policies urged soldiers to rape Bosnian women until they became pregnant as an attempt towards ethnic cleansing. Serbian soldiers hoped to force Bosnian women to carry Serbian children through repeated rape.[60] Often Bosnian women were held in captivity for an extended period of time and only released slightly before the birth of a child conceived of rape.

    The systematic rape of Bosnian women may have carried further-reaching repercussions than the initial displacement of rape victims. Stress, caused by the trauma of rape, coupled with the lack of access to reproductive health care often experienced by displaced peoples, lead to serious health risks for victimized women.[61]

    During the Kosovo War thousands of Kosovo Albanian women and girls became victims of sexual violence. War rape was used as a weapon of war and an instrument of systematic ethnic cleansing; rape was used to terrorize the civilian population, extort money from families, and force people to flee their homes. According to a report by the Human Rights Watch group in 2000, rape in the Kosovo can generally be subdivided into three categories: rapes in woman's homes, rapes during fighting, and rapes in detention.[62][63] The majority of the perpetrators were Serbian paramilitaries, but they also included Serbian special police or Yugoslav army soldiers.[62][63] Virtually all of the sexual assaults Human Rights Watch documented were gang rapes involving at least two perpetrators.[62][63] Since the end of the war, rapes of Serbian, Albanian, and Roma women by ethnic Albanians—sometimes by members of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) – have also been documented.[62][63] Rapes occurred frequently in the presence, and with the acquiescence, of military officers. Soldiers, police, and paramilitaries often raped their victims in the full view of numerous witnesses.[49]
    wiki

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  17. One of the common misconceptions about the Yugoslav Wars is that they were the result of centuries of ethnic conflict. In fact, in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, the ethnically mixed region of Dalmatia held close and amicable relations between the Croats and Serbs who lived there, and many early proponents of a united Yugoslavia came from this region, such as Dalmatian Croat Ante Trumbić. However by the time of the outbreak of the Yugoslav Wars the historical hospitable relations between Croats and Serbs in Dalmatia had broken down, with Dalmatian Serbs fighting on the side of the Republic of Serbian Krajina. Clear ethnic conflict between the Yugoslav peoples only became prominent in the 20th century, beginning with tensions over the constitution of the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats, and Slovenes in the early 1920s and escalating into violence between Serbs and Croats in the late 1920s after the assassination of the most popular Croatian politician at the time Stjepan Radić. Severe ethnic conflict occurred during World War II during which the Croatian Ustase movement committed genocide against Serbs, while the Serbian Chetnik movement responded with reprisals against Croats as well as murdering Bosniaks. However the Yugoslav Partisan movement was able to appeal to all national groups, including Serbs, Croats and Bosniaks.[65] Josip Broz Tito was half-Croat half-Slovene.[14]

    In Serbia and Serb territories, violent confrontations occurred particularly between nationalist Serbs towards non-nationalist Serbs who had criticized the Serbian government and the Serb political entities in Bosnia and Croatia.[66] Serbs who publicly opposed the nationalist political climate during the Yugoslav wars were reported to have been harassed, threatened, or killed.[66]

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  18. http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2013/12/17/Opposition-says-Syrian-forces-dropped-barrel-bombs-on-Aleppo--kill-83

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    1. sure they did.........sarcasm off

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    2. "One resident told RT the Islamist rebels massacred residents when they entered Adra Wednesday.
      "The situation was terrible -- with killing, atrocities, and fear as the background. Unidentified armed men came into town, but it was obvious that they were Jabhat al-Nusra militants," Muhammad Al-Said told the Russian news channel. "The worst crime they committed was that they toasted people in ovens used to bake bread when those people came to buy it. They kidnapped and beat up many."

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  19. Bleh out of TWTR puts for a 10% loss. Freaking grinding that thing and the premiums are too high. Cup and handle on the daily too.

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    1. The reasons that pros arent' making money in this market is exactly this......the distortions are reaching epic levels and could grind this pig even higher........the recent takedown of the market was all manufactured. The question is whether it was manufactured to set up for a FOMC short squeeze with " 10 B Taper Announced!" again this would be a "counterintuitive" equity move BUT would catch a lot of shorts piling in right after the announcement.......ie fakeout dump on equities and then CRUSH the shorts....This IMO would not last more than a few days but it would be devastating for shorts. PMs should finish with a higher high over the next two weeks

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    2. No joke, I was foolish to play in that Twitter Shark pool. Watching it this afternoon it's just being grinded to kill call and put holders. They'll eventually swing it one way or the other (likely down) but by then a lot of money will have been lost.

      Lots of open interest on GDX calls. Doesn't mean it can't be breached but someone stands to lose a lot of money if GDX breaks and holds above $22.50 by then :)
      As I said before though going to sit on my hands and wait out the moves. Premiums will likely drop afterwards both ways unless we get a solid move. Still holding EXK stock painfully.

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  20. http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/12/17_Absolutely_Shocking_Developments_In_The_War_On_Gold.html

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  21. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SSRI&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p47306078752&a=242315566&listNum=1

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  22. http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/the-exchange/the-fed-is-about-to-surprise-investors-194026829.html

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  23. http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/12/10/this-silver-miner-will-be-strong-in-2014.aspx

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  24. this is why this will NOT end like our other cycles..........its all simple math

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-17/things-make-you-go-hmmm-being-completely-out-touch-reality#comments

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  25. Hey the MSM told me there's no inflation!

    http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/ali-meyer/price-ground-beef-hits-all-time-high

    We need MOAR pink slime!!!!

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  26. Re: war. If it's any consolation, Martin Armstrong and Kyle Bass among others agree with you.

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  27. Happy Holidays everyone. Enjoy your families and good health...looking forward to talking in the New Year.

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  28. re: Ryan Budget

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-17/us-budget-deal-summarized-one-cartoon


    Hmmm..........








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  29. http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2013/12/the-housing-market-is-about-to-crash.html

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  30. I hope you all have seen this story and would like to venture a guess as to WHY??? This is no small deal.

    http://www.cnn.com/2013/12/17/politics/india-us-diplomat/

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    1. I did a quick search. Apparently, India is paying for at least some of their Iranian oil imports with Gold. That's a no-no.

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    2. and.......India has begun reducing their restrictions on gold imports.........and.........

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  31. FYI.........What medium/large Silver miner is up 30% in less than 14 days.......

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  32. Hehehe I'm gambling a bit before the decision. Bought 4 DUST Weekly $44.50 puts. Either be a quick double (or more) or drop to nothing. Place your bets ;)

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  33. My Bet is No Taper just like Silver King!

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    1. I wuz wrong. Now the question is, is the Fed stupid enough buy the BS economic reports which says we are in a recovery or are they purposefully going to crash the market? The after-effects of the announcement appears to be a relief rally now that the news is behind us but the question I pose now is, where do we go from here? If interest rates begin to climb, which is now likely, how can the shitty economy sustain itself anywhere near these levels? I figured that they were smart enough not to taper because they would know that they would only have to increase QE at a later point thus removing the "we're going taper" threat for good. Now I question whether they are just looking at fake data and making decisions without regard for reality.

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    2. THEY WANT TO INCREASE TAPER.....the only way to do it is to take down the market in a "managed way"...being short any short squeeze after the announcement is a gift ....it may take a few days or a couple of weeks to get this pig up but layered in shorts on some selective pigs is not a bad way to go.......just no leverage

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    3. Taper is a farce Silver.......and its placed here to delude the public that the economy is healthy........they MIGHT even taper again in Jan.....IF they do then its the biggest shorting opportunity every AFTER they squeeze the market. I have no idea how long they want to levitate the market but to usher in 125 Billion in further taper they will FIRST take the market down hard......REAL HARD and Yellen will bring in the "Mother of all TAPERS"..........remember the name too "The Mother of all Tapers"..........that's what the media will call it.

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    4. I think you used the word 'taper' where you meant 'QE' but I think I understand what you are saying. It will be the 'Mother of all QEs' if I understand correctly.

      I agree with what you are saying but once they increase QE, then the taper threat doesn't mean squat and won't forever.

      That's a tool they use now that won't be available to them once they pull the QE rip cord again.

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    5. Yes I meant QE .....and they need taper right now for CONfidence ....the CON in confidence is that the insiders know the plan to tank the market and then MOAR QE. I have my bet placed with two GS boyz for April......I may not win but I bet the 1.25 B QE is in 2014......but first the insiders will short this market hard......and they will reap a pile of sucker's money.......hehehehh

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  34. Wow spreads have gone NUTS on the DUST puts.

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  35. Well I made a bad bet! Wrong again.

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  36. Good lord this is wild movement, hope nobody had stops in!

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    1. I can't even really get out of my DUST puts. The bid at one point was $1 with a $5 ask... hahaha never seen anything like that.

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  37. It is pretty wild. Gold was up 12 bucks before announcement, then down immediately 20 bucks after announcment then up 10 bucks. I am loving the price action in Gold and Silver. Bearish news and the gold is up. I think we are finally turning...

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  38. Just hinting at taper in the past hurt miners more than this. Then they actually do taper and they go up. Go freaking figure.

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  39. repost again if you care "BTW anyone that cares ......the recent takedown of the market probably decreases the chance of taper this week....BUT just beware the ultimate screw to the unaware would be a taper announcement ......that sucks in even more shorts and then use the recent downturn and selling on the news to just crush some more shorts and rip the heads off the "sucker money" short.....dangerous market now and they are taking no prisoners.......OR...they may just pull the market down into the announcement and say......MOAR money and again SQUEEEZE the short sellers.........either way the recent takedown is setting up for a short squeeze....."

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  40. This is the mantra......"THINGS ARE GETTING BETTER therefore taper is fine for the market......the market will tank soon ........maybe only a couple of days of juicing to suck in the longs and finish distribution.....I think they may very well crush this market very soon and announce "JUST HOW IMPORTANT TAPER IS"...........obviously they may play the up distribution out until January but this is going to be treacherous IMO for longs......

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  41. look at that squeeze go...........

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  42. Ugh miners getting zero love as usual. This is so agonizing.

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    1. Wrong Hubz........this is setting up for rotation of the equity market into the most beaten down sectors. Miners are being accumulated and have been for several months....its very careful but you can see it as the distribution in general equities has played out. I wasn't smart enough to see how they would set this up over a year ago but they will rotate into PM equities when they have finished accumulation. It will most likely be a more symmetric chart move than the 08/09 move up and they will shake out all of the weak leaves before they really rip it up........I'll just trade the margins but leverage trading will be very dangerous once the MOMOs move into the sector.

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    2. painting the miners red at the close is important today for them lets see how the next few days play out

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    3. I hope you're right :) Having a bad week so far trading. Last week's gains are basically gone. Action today totally confused me as it was likely meant to.

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  43. how to screw the most market participants.............begin the bear phase of the market before the end of the year..........be aware.......everyone thinks the safe trade through the end of the year is to be long now

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    1. I think your right on, expectations from the bears is that market tanks on tapering. Squeeze shorts and then who is left to buy. We may get a rally through end of the year but I can't see much left in the tank for 2014. Rising market AND Fed tapering should make bulls run wild, this is the most emotional markt I remember since 2000, makes 2007 look like childsplay.
      Also fully agree on miners, accumulation going on. As equity market tanks money moves in gold and miners, also like 2000.

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  44. Final flush coming? Could get big spike down over next several days?

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    1. maybe, I'm wondering IF we will see it.....its such a manufactured bottom that we may have seen it. I'm watching some selective miners so far and wondering if its not already in........NONE of it changes my trade but if they extend it out long enough then MOAR physical to come to papa

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  45. Derivatives, QE, inflation, M1V, taper

    Anyone who thinks QE was about employment and assisting Joe Sixpack and his financial challenges needs medications for their mental condition. It had nothing to do with Joe Sixpack and his problems. It was about bailing out the big boys who found themselves in a situation.

    Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers failed because they were foolish enough to become over leveraged to derivatives and could not meet promises under any stressful situation. Without government intervention others like Merrill Lynch and AIG would have gone under (same reason).

    Over time these derivatives expire, get exercised or offsetting derivatives bought. Without the change in the "mark to market" accounting rule to "mark to model" many more banks and financial firms would have failed. QE gained more time to reduce the trillions of dollars of derivatives in the world. Some have estimated that those derivatives may have been as much as a quadrillion dollars. There is no way to know the exact amount of such derivatives that were in the OTC market. Many such contracts were custom constructed for a customer to cover a particular risk.

    As these derivatives went away the "mark to model" became "mark to market". The result of this was the destruction of fiat money. This shrinkage of fiat money kept the economy from expanding as expected. It also kept inflation from appearing and threatened severe deflation. Also, corporations were being frugal and paying down debt which added to this problem.

    More later

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  46. new post later tonite........I'll copy and paste your comments into that post too later tonite inlet

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  47. Derivatives, QE, inflation, M1V, tape

    So the FED was in a box. QE was their solution. They could print money (buy treasuries), and reduce derivatives (buy MBS securities) which were offsetting transactions as derivative destruction (MBS purchases) reduced fiat money as treasuries purchases increased fiat money.

    One result of all this manipulation as the FED tried to avoid Deflation and reduce derivatives (0-3% down mortgages were heavily leveraged) was a slow down in monetary velocity. See the St Louis Federal Reserve site for information and graphs of M1 Velocity. Of course corporations hoarding cash did not help velocity either.

    The FED now believes the derivatives issue is controlled (destruction of fiat currency and deflation risk acceptable)
    The slow down in monetary velocity has stopped going down and has gone flat. The FED may tell you this is about employment improvements etc. That is BS.

    The FED believes the threat of deflation is now past and that inflation is more likely. So they want to stop QE.

    Being a cynic , I look at it like this - they have done all they can to screw over you and your savings with low interest rates. Now they are going after the rest with inflation.

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    1. you are a cynical little bastard.....hehehehhehhheehhehehee............

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    2. And the icing on the cake is.... gold and silver are not safe alternatives.

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    3. yes jay and they have made the sheep convinced ...hehhehehe

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