Saturday, August 31, 2013

THE FOG OF WAR

A lot of headlines tonight creating turmoil within the neocon controlled executive branch. Obama had to back track on his latest aggression against another Middle East country. The real story is the Pentagon said NO to Obama's plan. Even the war room knows that a "bridge too far" can provide their own undoing. The cabal was stunned by Britain's no vote to the attack and will regroup with their Mainstream media machine to soften up public opinion AND to create another false flag scenario. War is needed for not only its profit but for its distraction as the chessboard is reset. There has to be a grand distraction and the casualties of billions is only a side benefit for the global elite as the 120 year Supercycle reset occurs. The smoke and fog will create the necessary cover as the collapse in the bond market begins in earnest. 

People have had it. Many are becoming informed, but many will unfortunately remain ignorant which will provide the necessary division to accomplish the ultimate goal in the U.S., which is CONtrol. Its just not CONtrol of the money, but of the military, political, and disinformation media. Most people just don't have the necessary equipment to filter a multiple level disinformation campaign....so they eventually succumb. 

A lot of true patriots are mobilizing and trying to stop the banker's plan, but decades of solidifying their stranglehold on the West provides a formidable (but not impossible) task. You have a moral responsibility to resist the warmongers. How you resist must be peaceful but you must try.

Gold and silver "should" remain in a further correction mode with miners showing early weakness next week. Whether they do or not it doesn't matter to me since I'm back in with the small cash I collected on some profit taking in mostly GPL and SSRI. They were nice doubles off their bottoms. Now I'm back in both and ready for probably some more weakness. Hope all of you had a nice summer. I'll be going to NY at the end of the week and I hope that you all have some great trading, but remember......as we smile and get into our comfortable beds with full bellies OUR country is being used to inflict hell on INNOCENT women and children's lives all over the middle east. Not facing our own culpability is not erasing our own responsibility as citizens in this country. Maybe you believe that Assad used chemicals on his people and is inviting us to obliterate him.....ONE thing seems clear......"someone" used chemicals....gl 
Men write many fine and plausible arguments in support of monarchy, but the fact remains that where every man has a voice, brutal laws are impossible. Mark Twain






Tuesday, August 27, 2013

AND THEY'RE OFF

Multiple events are afoot as we watch the unwinding of the 120year K winter supercycle. You are witnessing a combination of diabolical events that will unfortunately stagger your imagination as they unfold. Some of you still wish to believe that the events within the market and within the geopolitical arena are random events guided by market/social herd behavior, and are out of our control or "anyone" else. On the other hand many of you have gone through a dramatic change in how you view world and market events over the past few years that are bringing you to the ultimate conclusion that everything is rigged. Perhaps everything is rigged and its because "You can't handle the truth" is behind the illusion. It doesn't matter because anyone can plainly see there are injustices now occurring on a global scale that even a cynic like myself could never have imagined. The market is a sideshow for me now and will allow me some escapism just as Vegas does. May all of you keep the sun in you faces and the wind at your backs as we enter into these tumultuous days ahead. AND if you are religious then I hope you pray for all of the innocent lives that are about to be sacrificed. Short post tonight. Miners need a correction....gl

Sunday, August 25, 2013

POSERS OR TAKE OFF

Getting a boost?
Most retail investors are unable to stay in a market like the miners for a variety of reasons that should be clear to most of us but the pic above illustrates the real underlying reasons better than I can probably explain in words. The "market" is set up to separate you from profiting and it does so by creating a remarkably choppy ride with smaller waves that hit you constantly to confound you and then a remarkably large killer wave to destroy you. Demoralization, fear, and greed are all represented within the waves. Some of you that like to use Elliot Waves know this is one of the hallmarks that Elliot tried to capture in an attempt to predict the market movement. What Elliot could not control was that the "market" could always adjust the amplitude and time of waves at will if necessary. Time is the friend of he who has the most patience and patience is dependent sometimes on several factors not the least which is the size of your wallet. In fact, time is inversely proportional to the size of the wallet and the market always has the largest wallet so they use time to THEIR advantage. 

When one uses technical analysis, you have to recognize that it can work against you depending upon your own biases and emotion. A very savvy trader once told me that "Kli....you cannot be too greedy but there is also a time that you MUST be greedy".... That of course seems to be contradictory on the surface but further analysis of the "wave" theory provides some insight. For instance, in 2008 precious metals were destroyed in a massive down wave that crushed most traders other than the most stalwart participants. The knowledgeable traders know that oversold conditions in the extreme are to be bought or "added" to especially if they reach historic levels on the technical indicator such as RSI MACD etc. Of course Nature's law will be obeyed regarding for every action there is an opposite and equal reaction and this is where the sage advice of the trader saying there is a time where one MUST exercise greed. What that is saying is getting off of the ultimate rebound wave too early after the killer wave has passed will result in an enormous ride missed. Very few retail traders have this discipline. 

Many believe that waves reflect herd behavior......I disagree.....waves are used to create herd behavior....that is a huge difference and you can use this knowledge in your own investment themes. We've gone through a very long killer bear wave in PM miners and it may be over....only time will tell.....but a series of higher highs and lows are forming in the "waves".......so hang on but some small profit taking is never a "bad" thing....or even trading on the margin of your positions...on the other hand the words of the jackal always linger...."sometimes you have to be greedy" ....He said that is part of "Controlling your emotions too".......gl









Tuesday, August 20, 2013

NATURAL LAW

Each day that goes by draws us one step closer to the resolution of the quantum theory of economics being challenged by the mad professor running the Fed. Will QE be successful in providing the necessary fuel to propel us through the deleveraging of the greatest ponzi ever perpetrated on civilization? Will the mad professor be able to engineer a feat deemed virtually impossible and land a 747 on an aircraft carrier fully loaded with people and fuel? Scratch that. Will the mad professor be able to gradually debase the currency while allowing the banks to completely recapitalize, while erasing hundreds of trillions of derivatives off their balance sheets and landing on a fractional reserve system with a safe leverage of say.......6:1 instead of the current 30:1 system....and THAT is conservative. It could be over 50:1...there is just no way to tell with their lack of transparency safely guarded by the mad professor.

This type of analysis is getting old to most of you but I am sorry to have to say........it is CORE TO THIS PONZI. There is currently a breaking point in the game that has been crossed and that is something you want to recognize. We have crossed the Rubicon. Maybe you haven't felt it, but that won't change what has happened. The earnings reports are telling you something that is very important. Wal Mart, Cisco, IBM, Caterpillar, and many other bellweather stocks are missing badly on their revenues.....  The mad professor is going to cut back on taper and the economy is stalling with NO prospects of a "real" turnaround. We're even talking seriously about installing another major expenditure onto the small business engine with a major health care tax in the midst of a private industry collapse? Why not just throw a grenade in a storage tank of gasoline and get it over with. 

Whether this is a grand conspiracy or just pure incompetence, one cannot deny the necessary events to bring us into the final phase of the 120 year grand supercycle collapse and the completion of the Law of Nature is now set in motion. As these events unfold the game will become more violent in its moves with participants finding themselves become ripped from more than just their money. Fear will become the primary emotion that even the sanguine hosts on CNBS will be overcome by. You've probably noticed the daily tone already changing as the chatter is increasingly shrill and confused as they scramble to find some shred of objective truth we're not going over the cliff of no return. Sorry to say folks...... E=MC2 and that is Nature's Law.





Sunday, August 18, 2013

THE WATER'S FINE

Come on back, the water's fine. We gotz all da good stuff left ta sell ya....  Step right up and buy all ya can get your hands on.

Well I guess ya can't blame these guys for tryin'. We're in an accelerating collapse that could take months to unwind unless someone throws a fire under the American consumer.....oh wait.....we aren't even the number one economy anymore.....China is. We may not even be the number one consumer anymore. Right now our consumer is hit with three bullet wounds dripping their last drop of precious blood. Economically our consumer is done for. If you haven't been asleep, you've probably noticed how fast the CEOs are ratcheting down their revenue expectations as misses on the top line start to hit earnings reports like a tsunami. This is striking fear into the hearts of the lower level ponzi operators. They make a living selling this racket to the sheeple, but the top line are just watching the cycle unwind according to plan. After all.... all good things must come to an end. For every Yin there's a Yang. If one is a master of the Universe then understanding Nature's law is a must and Nature's law says that we're going to have a major flush and no matter how hard we try to print our way out there is a day of reckoning coming.

So we are about to find out just what tens of trillions of new, digital fiat will do to an economic supercycle collapse. As the CONfidence factor flattens the Central Bankers efforts to reflate the 2008 collapse. Can they mitigate the real collapse as they have so often said in testimony to the public? Can they really save us from ourselves. OR....is it all just a well planned implosion and all of you get to wake up one day and say....."they really did pull it off"....."they control it all, just like they said"..... Then again, you may not be able to put it together after the coming chaos. It may still be too complicated to sort out. Surely no one is that smart. Surely no human is that diabolical....that evil........ gl all

Wednesday, August 14, 2013

NEXT!!

As in ready for the next leg down in the Supercycle Deflationary collapse. We've been at this illusionary stage for over five years now and after infusing a minimum of 40 Trillion into the global economy we've reached the edge of the cliff again and starting to slide over. Objective data is such as top line company revenue is contracting and the next wave of U.S. layoffs are beginning and will only add to our "real" unemployment of roughly 14%. If you add in the fact that part time and workers that have just given up then the number goes over 23%.......that my folks is a DEPRESSION! Never mind the printed fiat sugar buzz you've been sucking up like there is no tomorrow......because there is. Its here now and its coming faster than you can imagine. It will "come out of nowhere"...and "no one could have seen it coming".... Except this time we're not going to get an easy fix of trillions to get us back up off the deck. Each new round of QE has been less and less effective as even a "massaged" GDP slips ever so slowly into the abyss. The key indicator of recovery however is Velocity of money and that number is so bad that ex-Fed gov Larry Meyers looked stunned when asked by a Bloomberg interviewer about it and then laughed and pretended he didn't know what it was.......realizing even the reporter was not buying the answer he tried to mitigate its importance as being irrelevant in modern economics. Anyone that understands economics knows the velocity of money is not only relevant, but is key to prosperous, growing economy.

We're entering a very critical juncture in the ponzi. This is the part where the Fed proclaims the economy healed and the road to recovery so strong that the Fed money printing can begin the process of winding down with the "taper". I thought they could do it and I still do......BUT not because the economy is healing, but because I thought they would have enough manipulative statistics to pull off the final CON.......the illusion that the QE has worked so well to this point that they can decrease it AND raise rates with the spread giving the banks the needed profit potential present to unleash lending from the accumulated "reserves".........and "Magic" we have the velocity of money once again rising with confidence.....that my friends is the GAME....the PLAN....and finally in my opinion the CATASTROPHE ......as it all falls flat on its face. I am not even sure they can pull off the illusion of announcing tapering beginning in September but my bets are they will announce it in September........EITHER way, whether they announce it in September or NOT.....we get a serious set back to the market. By the way if the jobs report for August is neutral or better then they will announce tapering.....its the only thing that would prevent them from it.   Back to the market, gold and silver....Market starts correcting and gold and silver (physical) remain the place for safety as the desperate play to prevent its rise during the past year backfires as precious physical metal no longer exists for the cover of the naked paper shorters.....game over. gl all the next two months should be doozies.... For those of you that read this blog and are suffering, my heart goes out to you and your family.....to those of you entering this historic time my heart also goes out to you and I hope you can remain strong and lead not only your family but others in your community through this period. We all will change.

Sunday, August 11, 2013

UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES

Or perhaps one should call this post "what happens when you violate nature's laws". Kudzu was a Japanese plant that was introduced to regions of the south to "control erosion" . It can grow at an enormous rate and has virtually taken over entire forests throughout the South. It can actually destroy buildings as it proliferates onto their roofs and support structure. It was used by the government initially for a positive purpose BUT its ultimate result is a catastrophe for the environment. As old growth forests and productive land is destroyed, ground ozone levels rise precipitously.

We are under an assault on Nature's law in a wide array of areas in our lives. I'll focus just on the effect that "unintended consequences" are going to have on our economic system and I will do so in my typical simplistic manner. 

As most of you are aware the "system" had reached its bubble proportion in 2008 and the bubble burst. Whether it was intentionally or "naturally" burst is not really that pertinent, but the response to the implosion is important.  Instead of relying upon the laws of nature to "clear" the market and remove the excesses and malinvestment that had been allowed to proliferate, we decided to "double down" on the same forces that had brought us to the "edge of the abyss".  A decision was made that we would extend the leverage rather than "take the pain". Essentially, deciding that we would sacrifice the dollar and its reserve status to buy us a few more years of "imaginary recovery". Of course we will argue that the pain was going to be too severe and that the collapse would endanger our very way of life with its effects on our very social structure......nice arguments and ABSOLUTELY VALID!!!

Here's the rub. You certainly avoided a depression in 2009 but now you've created the necessary ingrediants for a MAGNITUDE larger catastrophe with unintended consequences one cannot imagine. You have now set in motion the "Kudzuing" of the entire World. You're looking at the collapse certainly of the Petrodollar and the empire it created here. We've already slipped in most measurable, meaningful categories like education, wages, health care etc....to almost third world levels. The news is we have much further to go. Once we lose the reserve currency status, we lose the ability to fund our military spending and the empire will collapse. This is good in the long run but it will be VERY destabilizing for us and our economy.  We have doubled down on a ponzi and now our price to pay will be unintended consequences that you and I cannot fathom. If you believe that our brilliant economic scientists can negotiate with nature then I will only remind you of our Fed Chairman's testimony to Congress in late 2007. There is no housing bubble and the economy is strong and there will be no recession. Yes my fellow proles.........I have the utmost confidence that these geniuses will beat nature......or.......maybe they have NO intention of beating nature. Maybe their economic kudzu was planted intentionally....gl






Tuesday, August 6, 2013

EVERYBODY KNOWS

Who told him....or did he just "figure it out".....
Somewhere there is a song playing that tells you truth and tells you far more than you can imagine just listening to the melody drift across your synapses. How did HE know? Leonard Cohen is an enigmatic figure shaped by experiences that he was exposed to through a multitude of decades on this planet. Experiencing a myriad of cultures and growing up in a fertile environment may have provided him the opportunity to "know", but it does not explain his awareness completely. He was aware of the game because he possessed an "intangible" that many just don't have. Call it what you may...... intellect, curiosity, ethics, desire, or adventurism.....maybe a combination of all the above, but whatever the reason many proles just don't have the necessary essentials to comprehend how their lives are completely controlled and manipulated. In fact they seem to have an affinity or a "need" to follow. They've never chosen the path less traveled. It is not in their genetic makeup. See what creative people like Leonard Cohen did early in their lives that indicated they possessed a different chemistry than the average prole. Then look at how many times throughout their careers and lives they changed course and moved away completely from what their prior conditioning had taught them. Many times radically departing from indoctrination that seemed iron clad......ultimately finding a much higher state of awareness. So be aware.....we're getting very close. Close to a life altering change in the way we look at many aspects of our own lives. Most of you will finally "get it".....and hopefully it will be in time to help you through the troubled waters ahead. Some of you won't.

As far as the mundane world of money goes, we are getting very near to a major up move in gold and silver. In the next few weeks JPM will be net long over 100,000 contracts in gold and the move up will commence with a massive short squeeze of the spec shorts. All of you will realize that the game is just that easy. gl




Everybody knows that the dice are loaded 
Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed 
Everybody knows that the war is over 
Everybody knows the good guys lost 
Everybody knows the fight was fixed 
The poor stay poor, the rich get rich 
That's how it goes 
Everybody knows 

Everybody knows that the boat is leaking 
Everybody knows that the captain lied 

Saturday, August 3, 2013

ON THE BRINK!

As the winds of chaos swirl through the Middle East it seems that we are drawing closer to a conflagration as the West and its centuries of sovereign manipulation are on the verge of ignition. Egypt must be controlled or the detonation will take place this year. As a 120 year Supercycle unwinds one can only speculate what type of fireworks may ensue, but the violent type appears to be unwinding in the Middle East. Does the West believe they can take control of the Middle East oil reserves and checkmate China and Russia? Perhaps, or is this all just to distract the Western proles from the deleveraging pain as the bankers extract their wealth under the umbrella of a global conflict. Either way the bankers win. Its always the game....buy when there's blood in the streets. How can you lose when you create the blood in the street. Its a grand chess game isn't it?

Western proles have been fattened up and dumbed down like the good mutton they were intended to become. Now that the process has been completed its time for the shearing and the butchering. Decades of conditioning and decadence have created the perfect conditions for the conclusion of the Kondratieff Winter. Soft martial law is now openly in place and the paralysis of any judicial or prosecutorial resolution is obvious. Of course the usual suspects will be visibly prosecuted. Unfortunately for the proles their fate was already decided years before. Many believe they still are under a system of laws with their constitution firmly in place and protected by a "strong military". Unbeknownst to the average prole the military is NOT used to protect the proles OR the constitution. They are the new Centurions. Professional soldiers designed to take orders and their orders come from the highest power in the world.....and that power has been calling the shots in the west for a number of centuries without any real challenge.

I'm giving the current system less than a 50-50 chance of survival, but that's enough that I'll play the casino with some of my chips. If you're the gambling type and feel you can beat the house then you can play too. Paper of any type is a complete crap shoot here so buyer beware. My real worries aren't with the casino but its with the violation of nature's law that "we the people" have engaged in. You can be the judge of what "that violation" is. I think many of you can come up with those answers if you wish to be introspective. I have a fairly long list that I can plead guilty too. So let's see what kind of wind comes our way now.....gl