Sunday, December 29, 2013

FORECAST 2014

Miner investors
Once again all of the crystal ball readers get set for the new year. Right now if you're forecasting you have not made one wrong prediction so you can claim perfection, at least until the end of the next year. At this time I can single out several of the prognosticators for special recognition. Jim Rogers for one has been very accurate with his analysis on the equity market and precious metal market. He has stated over the past couple of years that he was very reluctant to add to his gold holdings and felt the Fed could keep the bull equity market going as long as they were willing to counterfeit fiat. He has reiterated his outlook that resources are in a secular bull market and that holding commodities will ultimately pay rewards. 

Jim Rickards also has been very accurate on predicting the assault on the precious metals for some time. He has recently turned more positive on this sector but also adds that miners are under the control of bankers and can short term still have difficulty. Rickard's sources remain inside the system and he has a proven track record in this sector. 

I know that many investors in this sector have been decimated and many that have held on will be quick to exit their positions once the miners move up to initial resistance levels, which can result in this sector being a very profitable trading sector for those quick enough and watching these profit taking areas. I have not been trading these moves with any large volume and have instead elected to ride the bulk of my positions down. You are welcome to criticize this and I might join you, but as I've said throughout the miner sector slaughter during the past 18 months, I was finished trading them and would take my punishment and hold on.  Many of you, I believe, now see, as I have repeatedly stated, how powerful the cartel is, and some of you assume they can even manipulate Nature's forces ultimately. They cannot, and they know that. I'm not surprised by the sentiment capitulation in the miner trade, but I am surprised by how many retail traders have not been accumulating miners at these levels. I understand many of the hedge funds not buying, since they are only momo boyz and will not move until the insiders are positioned and have made the bottom obvious. The low in gold was set in mid 2012 and has held. We've made a double bottom and still could see a final weekly candlestick low, but the loss of bullion to the East is extreme so I wouldn't want to be short if that is wrong.

The objective factors that no one denies now is the massive flow of gold bullion to the East. If you deny that, then you are truly delusional and have no intellectual honesty. This IS the key for anyone understanding the ultimate destiny of the REAL price of precious metals. The dumb retail money (and hedges/money managers) own virtually NO physical metal and there only exposure is in paper gold products designed to fleece them and ultimately provide a control mechanism for spot and futures gold price. Don't join the crowd at these levels.....again this is directed at physical gold. Buying miners here is for those with excess liquidity only ie. THOSE that can AFFORD to lose their money....ie ME.... and the Jim Sinclairs, Jim Rogers etc.

I have been amazed by the subterfuge the Central Banks have been able to get by with this year and 2014 may start off the same. The boyz are coming back from their vacations in South Africa and South America and will resume trading in one week. Then the action will begin. I enjoy monitoring this historical time, but I know many of you are in pain and don't find this sector collapse as interesting as I. More and more people I am coming in contact with now seem to be aware that the system is broken and I am impressed by how resolute they are in their preparation. Many of these people have no idea what my stance is and offer their opinions readily. That is a marked change from the past 6 years. Best wishes to all of you next year. No doom and gloom here, only reality, and I won't put my head into that ostrich hole, but you are more than welcome to......just remember what is exposed above ground. GL

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Thursday, December 26, 2013

UPS EPIC XMAS FAIL???

Sure it was. I'm sure that many of you were aware of the headlines on all of the MSM outlets and business news of the UPS epic delivery failure due to the MASSIVE ORDERS that OVERWHELMED the delivery system and made "Christmas late" for the Billions of peeps. Think about what was in this meme. Massive LAST MINUTE sales overwhelmed UPS. I do believe I smell a conditioned rat game. We have reached such a low point in our ability to prop up the system that we have now resorted to the "late for X-mas" delivery story. Of course this makes perfect sense if you want to create a cover for "disappointing sales". Would this type of CONfidence building be necessary IF we weren't in a critical position? Just go back to the most recent "creative crisis"......the budget impasse that "shut down" the government. Really?? How many times have you heard the following disappointing 2nd quarter GDP numbers were due to the "shut down". It was repeated over and over until it was DRILLED into your pysche.  Relax we now have a CONfidence cover story for any retailer reporting disappointing earnings......ESPECIALLY the bellweather online retailers like Amazon.

Could this really be about a charade for just CONfidence? HOW do you think we can begin to form a meaningful response to the all important "velocity of money"? While you stuff cheeseburgers in your face and watch endless hours of football, the real game is behind closed doors trying to fight for the system that let's the west consume massive amounts of energy and commodities at bargain basement prices. That game is the real game the sheep will never be smart enough to watch. 

Why in the world do you think we need a global army with 850 bases in over 150 countries? Do you REALLY think that is to keep the peeps in this country safe. No, its to enforce our currency. THE DOLLAR. Its always been about the dollar. If you don't believe in the stability of the dollar then you have NOTHING. You're just another third world debt, burdened country and you WILL have to start to pay your debt. If you have the enforcement of your will and currency then you can print and you can BUY your resources. This is where the East comes into play. If they can gain the upper hand over the dollar then we will begin to see a shift of many resource and labor rich countries shift to the East in a hurry. This is the struggle and this is the reason the East is accelerating their gold purchases. Its out in the open for even the public to see if they want to, but most won't. The smart money knows already. Just remember there's not gold backing the dollar but its still backed.

"Ya cain't stop what's comin'.....they ain't waitin' on you........that's vanity"..............No Country for Old Men







Sunday, December 22, 2013

CHRISTMAS DINNER AT THE FED

What can possibly be on the wish list for next year for the greatest game ever? Can the master planners continue their well laid out plans one more year before cracks within the syndicate betray them and create a rapidly expanding crack that topples the entire complex structure? Can they? Can they control the press? Can they control the proles? Can they control Congress....the Supreme Court.......the President? Those are the easy ones....they won't even break a sweat on them.

Can they keep their army in place across 150 countries, now expanding into Africa? Can they keep a union intact of Western Countries that are growing increasingly distrustful of the greatest power ever while they sacrifice their national identity for the "greater good"? Will this massive empire survive the transition from the petrodollar empire to the next dominant global currency and in what form? 

You see......any good organization rots from within.....even the greatest organization of all time. Therein lies the greatest danger of all. As the game rots from the inside as CONfidence is lost at the base of the pyramid, the inevitable conclusion is that it will spread up to the top. Before that can happen there will come a day of reckoning for the entire game. The top can never be exposed and as CONfidence is lost a massive reset will have to take place under the cover of subterfuge. That is how a syndicate operates. 

This is the recovery that you are in. Accept it for what it is. No jobs. Lower wages. Exploding debt. Corruption at every level of government across the entire globe. Militarization of global police forces. Dissolution of sovereign constitutions. Multiple sovereign invasions while power and sentiment builds behind the new powers on the horizon. Never mind the proles as the music keeps them in their trance. Remember....the media MADE you cry for moar. We exported evil and it will return to its birth. That is the gift of evil.  You may not have the strength to accept the truth and just wish to dwell in the delusion of synthetic warmth and safety. Who can blame you? That is the nature of human weakness and behavior. Many of us share a common, intricate, Eastern philosophy that makes all of us easy prey....... the religion of Fear and Greed. Are you afraid of the truth? The game counts on it. So "Keep Believin' it lets us play"!





Wednesday, December 18, 2013

EVERYTHING IS FINE

That was the mantra today as I listened to the shills on all of the financial networks prior to and after the taper announcement. The difference this time was the preponderance of shills were calling for NO taper as opposed to the last FOMC meeting when they were calling FOR taper. Of course we were "Data Dependent" each time which meant Taper was MORE likely this time???? Really???? What was the data change that provided the much heralded taper to be implemented this time as opposed to last time? Maybe it was the impressive number of large companies missing earnings this time AND the more impressive number missing top line revenue numbers. Let's not bore you with those companies and their numbers. Let's look at the results today. After implementing a disastrous health care policy and a further multi-trillion dollar budget deficit as far as the eye can see.......we had taper. 

Even the MSM commentators let the cat out of the bag after it was announced by repeating that taper was implemented for CONfidence.......that'sright....CONfidence....CONfidence.....CONfidence!!!! But what if there's an even more devious plan underlying today's announcement. Always look at the banks.  How do they make money on their prop desk. They make it trading and they make it by trading their book and they do that by setting up the other side of the trade. It doesn't matter whether its their clients even as long as there is another side. Go back and look at the recommendations of the big banks. Look at the preponderance of guests on CNBS. Once again the boat was loaded with NO TAPER talking heads and tipped over easily with a fake out down move to load the shorts when the surprise announcement was made for a resounding 300 pt approval move....which in fact was just the boyz making book on the algo bot short squeeze loaded in milliseconds. 

These markets are so dangerous now with the speed of light algo bots that you can be butchered in less than a few seconds if you're leveraged and NOT a big boy. (see naked gold contracts dumped in thin trading). This is not the market any longer for peeps. Its a market of predators and not just any predators......only the biggest in the jungle can play on this savanna. Look at all of the mixed signals the Fed sent out to participants the past few weeks. Do you think that was to give the non-insiders "CLARITY"? Or do you think it was meant to keep you in the dark if you weren't on the special Fed Christmas list? WHY do you think it was the Last Lame Duck act of Ben's to taper? WHY not allow Yellen that honor? Could we get another taper now in January? WHY NOT? Do you really not get it? What's 10 Billion or 20 Billion when we are still printing 65 billion AT LEAST a month and slipping another 30 billion through multiple back door portals.......and that's just the U.S.......let's not go to the rest of the Central Banks.

Funny thing however, the real economy is running on fumes. There's NO escape velocity being achieved as the debt just keeps piling up. Funny how Lawrence Meyers almost choked earlier this year when an attractive young CNBS interviewer asked him a very pointed question about the velocity of money. He was caught so off guard by this critical metric being brought up that he tried to profess no knowledge of what the metric was and to make his lies worse, when she followed up with another question regarding the velocity of money he changed his answer AGAIN. It just emphasized how important this problem is for them. They have had NO response in this critical area of the ponzi and they must have escape velocity or the whole pyramid scheme will collapse.

Meanwhile back on the range the predators are going to finish off what is left of the meat on the bones of the unwashed market participants and of the mom and pop savers that were dumb enough to have savings believing they could retire off of the CD interest. For five years now the flesh of these peeps has been carved off of their principle until many are facing only their Social Security.

Go ahead and believe things are recovering on this "sugar high", after all, that's just what you're being told literally every five minutes on all financial MSM outlets......so it must be true.....THAT is why the repeat it over and over and OVER! Because they HAVE to CONvince you. Why do they have to shout it OVER and OVER if its true? If it were true don't you think it would be so obvious. After all.....each of the past three Decembers the economists and talking heads have given us 3% GDP and PLUS numbers as predictions.....and we all know how those predictions turned out.....yet....for 36 months straight we have been in a "strong recovery". 

Big Banks are finishing you off while you're alive. They're carving what little real meat is left on your bones. Whether its stagflation or inflation that finishes you off......it won't matter......the system will reset. Its wash.....its rinse.....and its repeat. You see......that's how the big boyz make money. Ben knows exactly where the economy is. His masters know. Ben knew in 2005 there was a housing bubble.........when he said there wasn't. He knows exactly how this game is going to end too. His data is MUCH better than anything he shows us..........gl







Sunday, December 15, 2013

WAR!


Perhaps its hyperbole, but the drumbeat to war is still unmistakable.  Therefore one must ask if this is just another conditioning process, preparing the population for a nationalistic fervor to cover the financial implosion, or is there a genuine underlying clash of ideology building between sovereign nations? 

Where is that charismatic leader rising from the ashes of a desperate nation to lead the ideological battle for the hearts and minds propelled by the shed blood of their youth and the innocents of war? I don't see him or her? At least not yet.....but I hear the drumbeat.

So one may say the war games in the China Sea represent only a diversion for nations with leaders under pressure from their own economic woes, or possibly they are leaders and populations with genuine hatred engendered by their history heinous war crimes. On the other hand these old scores do provide a fertile ground for faux nationalism to be built by technocratic leaders who's only loyalty is to themselves and there own power base. This is where it becomes more complex however. 

Rather than ascribing a simplistic broad brush of  ism versus ism, a more interesting look at the pol's power bases is in order. For instance East vs West. Are the bankers controlling the East competing with the bankers controlling the West? Will there be a completion of the destruction of the U.S. so that Europe and North America align completely? Has the deal with the Western and Eastern bankers already been made? It is rather interesting that our "Pivot to the East" policy seems to coincide perfectly with the timing of hostilities between our "trading brethren" Japan, China, and South Korea and their technocratic leaders. Maybe our carefully designed transfer of technology and manufacturing to China over the past 40 years was designed specifically for us to just destroy it all in a senseless nuclear conflagration because of their "ism" (whatever that ism is now)?  After all, just look at our recent incursions throughout the Middle East and the destruction and instability left in that policy's wake. Wash, rinse, and repeat in operation again? Supercycle cleaning? Nature's revenge? 

Or is it all just greedy, pathetic, human nature, displayed in some type of random, violent World melodrama, trying to end in a brutal cataclysmic conflagration?  Generals being fired by the dozens. Soft martial law transitioning into hard martial law. Let's not even go into the surveillance issues. The 2 billion rounds of hollow point ammunition, the clampdown on whistleblowers, the militarization of the police..........nahhh......its just the way things have always been and its all just taking care of business. How's the water frogs?







Wednesday, December 11, 2013

BITCOIN

Of course this is your alternative to the dollar. Why can't it be? After all......its ENCRYPTED! You can own it and not be tracked......you're ANONYMOUS! You have no counterparty risk.....and on and on. YOU ARE BEING SET UP. This is going to be just one more spanking for the sheeple that fall for this game. 

If you don't know this by now then you are beyond help. NO ONE is anonymous on the internet. Can you really be that naive? Any encryption can be broken in a nanosecond. Let's assume they can't break your encryption. They sure as hell can break the internet and if they don't.... nature can. Good luck with all of that digital currency when the net breaks down....for whatever reason. Besides, the PTB already have us headed to digital currency and away from paper through various forms of plastic. Digital currency is by far and away the perfect medium for the money men, but don't count on Bitcoin. 

Whether Bitcoin was rolled out BY the cabal is not that important to know.....just be aware it is now totally co-opted by the boyz and when they're ready to take you out of it........they will. Expect them to portray Bitcoin as "flawed" and expect a completely regulated version to replace it almost immediately.  Trapping dumb money in this version of "digital gold" is also convenient once again for the fiat masters to demonstrate their ability to give you the "safest" money. Gold is still not a "safe" trade as thousands of tons of it flow to the east every year now. Soon you will be introduced to the real "safe" money. gl







Sunday, December 8, 2013

FOR THE LOVE OF GOLD

Four mortuary vans for 32 bodies were ordered to the Lonmin mine by Police just hours before 34 were killed
Let's not dwell on how the sausage is made. On the other hand...let's. Inspired by the recent "debate" on the MSM over the "filth" demanding a higher "minimum" wage increase, I thought I might show how one of the sectors that I invest in deals with these type of "wage demands". Some of you are familiar with the "Blood Diamond" controversy and how manipulated that controversy is used to protect the diamond cartel, but some of you may have missed some of the "developing World's" issues with gold mining by the cartel. An order was placed just before the raid in August 2012 by the South African Police Colonel for 4000 rounds of R5 assault ammo. 

The current investigation is now in the "hearing" phase, but at least arrests were made.....270 colleagues of the slain miners were arrested and charged with their deaths under an apartheid law called 'common purpose'. These actions effectively ended the strike on the gold mine. "Thank Gold" we were able to prevent these parasites from closing down a mine for that "barbarous relic". If anyone followed this massacre, they will duly note these were not white on black events but instead they are about Power, Control, and Class.....the age old game of the "Money of Kings". 

Just a note to those that believe these events are isolated to the developing countries may want to reconsider what the coming Supercycle deflationary wave may bring to many developing countries. The wealth disparity being created by bankers will begin to cause cracks within the fragile relationship of the haves and have nots. Soft marshal law is being incrementally implemented by many Western Governments in anticipation of social breakdown. Will similar scenes occur here if Wal Mart employees become more militant? More and more stress will develop withing the fabric of the "middle class" as stagflationary forces push families to the brink. The Affordable Health Care act is estimated to push health care costs for many families up by over 40%. Of course this will not show up as "inflation", but it will show up on the "stress" scale.

Militarization of local police departments will continue as "federalization" of law enforcement goes into overdrive. "Peace Keeping" will take an entirely new meaning as we go deeper into the drive to save CONfidence. Just remember your programming. Precious metals are not significant, even though we have had the gold bullion confiscated from at least 4 Middle East countries in the last 4 years. Even though India has implemented four separative directives to stop the flow of gold from the West into their borders. Someone thinks this relic is important enough to murder 34 miners fighting for wanting a living wage. 





Wednesday, December 4, 2013

AND THEN IT WAS TIME

Nature has a set of laws that can not be violated. They are the laws that many of you are aware of in the mathematical/scientific world and are not mutable. These laws form the basic structures of life. History is replete with attempts to restructure these principle for a variety of reasons to benefit human emotions and conditions, but the violation of these principles ends always with failure. Today reminded me of just how far we have drifted from the reality of these basic principles. While listening to a CNBS discussion with Dennis Gartman promoting his short on the 10 year Treasury, one of the Fast Money crowd challenged Gartman's premise that the rise in interest rates to 4% would create a collapse of the real estate market and in turn the economic recovery. Gartman quickly dismissed this as poppycock and compared just how far below a 4% 10year would still be below interest rates when HE was buying homes 10, 20, 30, and 40 years ago. There was no counter because of course he was right.....at least it seemed so on the argument's surface. If the 10 year treasury rises to 4% it would be well below the previous rates during HIS previous real estate runs. Unfortunately, there is a slight problem for Mr. Gartman. 

This would all be true if we had allowed a true price discovery to have taken place in the market . Homes instead remain at very high prices in many markets due to a myriad of behind the scene maneuvers and even have recovered in some of the very beaten down areas to relatively high values once again. 

Unfortunately however the consumer is barely keeping his nose above water on many of the current home sales at the current price levels with the mortgage rates at the current 10 year of 2.8% For example a couple wishing to purchase a new home today in a "hot" market may have to pay 400K for a 1600 sq ft 3BR "starter home". By the time they tally their monthly payments and various carrying costs they "just get by". You see.....Gartman's "starter home" had a cost of 60K back in 1983......So of course THAT 1600 sq ft home COULD be bought with interest rates at 9%. Gartman blissfully ignores the simple laws of mathematics....but nature does not........and something MUST give for homes at current levels to be purchased in MANY of these "recovered" markets if interest rates go to 4% on the 10Y......that could easily push mortgage rates over 6% and market prices would collapse as buyers are frozen out AS WE SAW HAPPEN THIS SUMMER WHEN THE 10Y hit 3%. THIS is why there were a large number of cancellations in the New Home sales numbers that were not calculated by the Government.

Be aware we are in collapse now. It has started. The bond move this year has been monstrous and its not going to stop. Bit coin cometh and it will goeth, but there will be others. The deception is palpable for those of you that are paying attention. Some of us are still fortunate to derive tremendous benefit from the government largess and feel immune in our sheltered world. I am fully aware of this, but receive almost daily reminders what the "other side" is enduring. As a breakdown in confidence spreads throughout the system, the need for "tighter control" will take on a more ominous tone as the system experiences more pressure from core collapse. There will be no warning for the masses that its "game over"....."music is going to stop tomorrow".........it will just suddenly become obvious. 

Twilight Zone numbers depicting recovery such as the BLS and New Home sales numbers today.....will continue and even worsen. When you realize the water's boiling, it will be too late.......that's the game. The rule of law.....the government......the country will have to radically change its priorities and direction. Individuals will need to determine what their NEEDS are versus their WANTS. If we can't change the moral course of the country, then we must change our individual moral degeneration. Keep enjoying their Bread and Circus, NFL football is pathetic and designed to control you, but Winter is here now and time is no longer on anyone's side.