Sunday, January 19, 2014

ECONOMIC HAIR TRIGGER

What happens when you have the largest economies all printing their own currencies in quantities that defy imagination to prevent a deflationary economic collapse? When does the sovereign interest of one of the super-powers over-ride the interest of the whole? In other words, what happens when someone with a hair trigger pulls off the first shot heard round the world?

Is it possible for countries with disparate national interest to maintain a technocratic alliance as the transfer of world domination slowly transfers from West to East? Can the mutual interests currency debasement outweigh the more selfish interest of accumulation of real assets for longer term national dominance as you print you fiat in ever increasing amounts? Look at this another way then, are you willing as a nation to allow your "beggar thy neighbor" to fill their coffers with loot such as real estate, iron ore, aluminum, copper, precious metals, rare metals, and oil, while you maintain your "steady as she goes" fiat printing?  Are your intelligence assets not telling you what is going on with your technocratic "alliance" partner? Sure they are. 

So what do you do? Do you continue the process? You just printed 8 Trillion this past year and you were lapped by your historic nemesis by 10 Trillion. You wanted to devalue your currency to try and extract yourself from decades (plural) stagnation and your "beggar thy neighbor" just plugged you in the behind by 10 Trillion and your currency has barely budged. Your nemesis loaded up on even more energy and commodities to insure their countries future and you plugged deflationary holes. They thumbed you in the eye when you embarked on some nationalistic island hopping and then one-upped you by declaring the entire sea was now owned by them as your Western technocratic super power stood by and sucked their thumb with "Lurch" issuing idle threats to further sand-kicking by your nemesis. 

This is a very tenuous alliance between super-powers that have ZERO love for one another and a history of animosity that has fed numerous bloody conflicts, yet this is what the balance of this faux recovery hinges on. I predict that you are going to see some very uncomfortable defaults taking place soon and for these defaults to be "covered" there will be some VERY severe sacrifices that one of these countries will be asked to make. That word "sacrifice" will begin to take on a new and very desperate meaning as the "global alliances" begin to feel the stress of a history of blood and conflict bearing pressure upon the technocratic leaders. Will it hold.....or will someone pull the trigger?









48 comments:

  1. and the cracks extend

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-19/chinese-money-markets-spooked-despite-slight-beat-and-miss-gdp#comments

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  2. and extend

    http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2014/01/alert-germany-and-ending-goldsilver.html

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  3. http://www.ingoldwetrust.ch/the-big-reset-part-1

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  4. Kli,

    Make sure you cross at the corners next time you visit the big chitty!

    http://nypost.com/2014/01/19/cops-beat-elderly-man-after-he-jaywalked/

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  5. Sounds like we may need another war to get this economy going again, freedom isn't free and we have to defend our ability to bail out large taxpayer subsidized monopoly banks that lend us our own money with interest, we also have to defend the NSA spying on everybody to keep us safe, hehehe Makes you wonder what that cold war was all about.

    Kli, check out 'Game of Thrones', it's a highly entertaining shown where you see all these different kingdoms backstabbing one another for control, kind of similar to what you see going on today. We should just bring back royalty and get it out in the open because some men are created more equal than others.

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    1. yes hickory......it has been one of my regular "bread and circus" distractions......what's funny is my GS boyz also have it on their favs along with "Boardwalk Empire"..........which is also quite entertaining

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  6. looks like it will just be days

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2014/01/19/mega-default-in-china-scheduled-for-january-31/

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  7. Here is a "what if".........what if the extension of the "recovery" with QE by printing fiat was really done to "run out" the clock on potential criminal prosecutions had the system collapsed. In other words the time that has now passed allowed the statute of limitations on prosecution to expire for the financial fraud crimes committed and now the banksters are Scott Free to pull the plug.

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    Replies
    1. "what if"....... Really! They've been chitting all over the rule of law since 43 Abandonded Free Markets in order to save the Free Markets..... TARP, Linda Green ect.....

      Delete
  8. Speaking of Cracks.....

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-20/retail-death-rattle

    and a follow up to the above....

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-19/bank-america-actively-preparing-chinese-january-31-trust-default

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  9. this is just too funny

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-20/pakistan-enforces-30-day-ban-gold-imports-stall-steep-increase-smuggling-india#comment-4348285

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  10. What are the ramifications here for the Chinese default? I'm thinking markets at least correct, dollar up, bonds up and commodities up, including gold and silver. Ironically, I believe January 31 is a big POMO day for the U.S.

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  11. More than likely they'll patch it to some degree or at least delay its contagion with fiat.....unless they start some further domino defaults which is always a risk.......so again they cannot allow the default which is the purpose of the entire post above. This involves printing by one of the "alliances" which gives an "imbalance" and that imbalance is either allowed unchecked or it is matched which gives the "matching" CBs increased ability for acquiring real assets/money which translates to increased power going forward.....which is what has been the China strategy for several years now. Its the "beggar thy neighbor" inherent flaw that eventually unwinds it. Discipline within the ranks must be maintained and they ALL HATE each other....so you figure out the eventual end game........

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  12. Didn't realize it is Davos week so we can expect some sideways or down I guess...certainly they won't let PMs break out this week.

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  13. Speaking of Davos.......

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-20/davos-world-which-85-richest-people-have-same-wealth-half-worlds-population

    Did someone mention "Royality" today!!!! Hehehehee

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    Replies
    1. Amazing isn't it Tom. Who would have thought we would have feudalism in the modern 21st Century with all our "advances" and technology to make life easier. Kings and Queens and Knights to enforce it all.
      What's sad and funny at the same time is all these crisis' are totally contrived and they never needed to happen. Is there something wrong with the species, is this human nature? The answer I sometimes hear is you would do the same in their position. I would hope I wouldn't but that's the planet we live on I guess.

      Delete
  14. ask and ye shall receive

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-20/china-liquidity-fears-ease-pboc-injects-255-billion-cny-most-feb-2013

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    Replies
    1. Obviously you're psychic...and the 85 gazillionaires don't need to worry, but their wealth presents an historically very dangerous situation.
      O on Jay Leno to talk about creating jobs; isn't this a day late and a dollar short? And speaking of short, the yen continues to fall.

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  15. Who said what? Hehehehehe

    "More than likely they'll patch it to some degree or at least delay its contagion with fiat."

    No OH you wouldn't nor would I, we were raised proper!

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    Replies
    1. Was there really any doubt that that another central bank would come to the rescue, stick save. Privatize the gains and socialize the losses, they make it look so easy,

      Of course you and I wouldn't, but here's what a European counterpart would have to say though.
      These "people" are born into immense wealth and privilege and are probably told it's their right to run the planet for us unwashed plebs who are too dumb to make decisions for ourselves. They mind as well be living on another planet compared to the rest of us.

      I enjoyed "American Lion: Andrew Jackson in the White House by Jon Meacham" even though it was limited in scope, and admire the fact he fought against a central bank, but he also was a slave owner and pretty harsh on the Indians as well, our history is complicated to say the least.

      Delete
    2. Power & Greed

      The names and faces change, time marches forward, yet everything stays the same, seems even being born into privilege and wealth there's an entitlement mentality...... That should make Bud happy!!!!!

      Delete
    3. Ain't it the truth. Get off of welfare and quit stealing my tax dollars top 1/10 of 1%.
      You think Bernanke ever worked a real job or made anything in his life, ever?
      Now picture Yellen in a beard. The smartest guys in the room are the ones who don't work for a living. Wish I could set up tax shelters in other countries. Steal a billion, pay a million dollar fine, life is good! hehehehe.

      Delete
  16. Quid pro quo?

    The mighty take care of themselves.....

    http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/tech-giant-free-21m-city-article-1.1582516

    If your a lowly sharecropper NYC think you could be this lucky???? Hehehe I think not!!!!!

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  17. See they don't need to worry about statutes of limitations, they just buy their way out and let the fools squabble over their I'll gotten gains......

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/21/nyregion/cuomo-and-attorney-general-settle-part-of-a-money-dispute.html?_r=0&referrer=

    Hehehehe and now you know how Andy Boy found part of his budget "Surplus"!

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  18. Wow, banked NICE gains in BBRY and TSLA Calls. TSLA is still going but that was a quick double had to take it. Makes up for silver being down. MINERS JUST WON'T DIE :) Which is good for us.

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  19. MUX May calls seem underpriced to me.

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  20. HUBZ: Nice call on the BBRY options. I thought you were nuts a couple days ago, but today it's hitting pay dirt.

    BlackBerry Ltd
    NASDAQ: BBRY - Jan 21 12:58 PM ET
    9.90+0.82 (9.03%)

    Steak dinner for you tonight!

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    Replies
    1. I'm having more luck being a quick momo hitter lately than anything else. TSLA was an obvious pin on Friday with lots of buying pressure. Anytime you see that it will almost always pop on Monday. BBRY the price action made me think some news was coming about and it's ripe for short squeezing. That one could continue to move but I'm taking my ball and going home for now :)

      Delete
    2. Congrats Hubz...keep up the good work and thanks for sharing. Altho I don't trade options, it's interesting. Great way to start off the year.
      Also like the look of the miners in spite of the spot prices today.

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    3. Thanks sister and Jay. I seem to hit hot and cold streaks unfortunately. I'd say 30-40% is the best I do on good picks which really in the grand scheme of options can only keep you afloat. I do like miners... A lot are suddenly turning bearish and I can see why due to RSI readings but... I just feel like the momo may be changing. I could VERY well be wrong though. I'm nothing but but a gambler :)

      Delete
  21. Obamanation:

    Wall Street advisor: Actual unemployment is 37.2%, 'misery index' worst in 40 years

    http://washingtonexaminer.com/wall-street-advisor-actual-unemployment-is-37.2-misery-index-worst-in-40-years/article/2542604

    Here is the icing on the cake: the sheeple in America will vote Hillary into the White House in 2016 so we can get these numbers even higher. :) All she's gotta do is say Hope and Change over an over. :)


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  22. BBRY continues to rip... yikes!

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  23. Our old friend PAL is making some moves but... I just can't trust it.

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  24. OH

    You queried.....

    "Is there something wrong with the species, is this human nature?"

    Nothing wrong, its all the same....... It knows no borders or race it just depend's on where you sit in the hierarchy!

    What's mine is mine and what's yours is mine.....

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-21/chinas-epic-offshore-wealth-revealed-how-chinese-oligarchs-quietly-parked-4-trillion

    You know the old joke about woman?

    If you put a 100 woman in a bag, shake um up, pour um out, they all come out the same! Hehehehehehe

    Greed & Power

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    1. That joke is funny, hehehe . You're taught your whole life laws are there for a reason, all men are created equal blah blah blah and then this type of stuff happens, the punishment, or lack there of, doesn't seem proportionate to the crime, look at HSBC! Dept of JUSTUS gotta wait for that statute of limitations to run out. Life is a tragedy to those who feel and a comedy to those who think cause it seems awful funny right now.

      On a side note, I like Peter Schiff, but it seems he weights his argument towards too many entitlements being the root of the problem. What about all the laisez faire deregulation to let these guys go hog wild? How can it be called an entitlement if you are forced to pay into it every paycheck!?!? I would like to know how that whole 200 trillion piece of the pie is divided up. Seems the right want to blame people that game the system on the bottom and the left want to blame the system on those that game it on the top. I am all for getting society right, but I think savers and producers and people that go to work everyday should be rewarded first.

      Delete
    2. one must remind themselves that there are the elite/entitled and then there are the "rest".....or the "slaves" or the "great unwashed" or the "sheep" or the 99%........or the ...well you get it........but what most do not get is there is no WE in the game its all ME........and "I got mine now you get yours"........If the 99.999% realized just how controlled they were then the game might take on a new tone but for now.......it "game on"........big boyz are worried however .....greed is out of control and me is killing it all..........Schiff's lack of the big picture and his greed make him weak.

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    3. Remember when Schiff did his little skit asking Walmart customers if they would pay higher prices if it meant Walmart employees would make a better wage? Yet I don't think he mentioned Walmart's business model is based on the taxpayer picking up the slack for it's employee's or any of the other unscrupulous activity going on. Seems dishonest to me.

      Delete
    4. Actually Schiff is right entitlements are the problem, however his problem is he is looking South at the 99% and not North to the 1%......

      ie:

      http://www.showbiz411.com/2014/01/21/nfl-commish-makes-29-5-mil-a-year-15-times-more-than-tax-free-org-gives-to-charity-more-than-ceos-of-ford-heinz-fedex

      http://www.huffpost.com/us/entry/2852094/

      http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/10/01/jp-morgan-s-food-stamp-empire.html

      http://www.alternet.org/story/155849/are_corporations_and_big_banks_making_a_windfall_from_food_stamps


      See he is right!!!

      Delete
  25. another crack

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-22/thai-cds-rise-one-year-highs-after-pro-government-faction-leader-shot

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  26. Bought $10 BBRY Weekly puts now. RSI is VERY overbought and has that gap to fill at $9. May not happen this week but a pullback is likely soon. They're cheap!

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  27. Should held your calls just a little bit longer :)

    BlackBerry Limited (BBRY)
    -NasdaqGS

    10.63 Up 0.70(7.01%) 11:32AM EST - Nasdaq Real Time Price

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    1. I'm always a day early it seems :)

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  28. Well that was stupid. Out of my BBRY puts. Really want to buy more calls on a pullback but it won't give me one. Damn!

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  29. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    1. Bud,

      Y'd ya pull your last comment down???

      Thought you shorted a few shares of NFLX??

      Guess it didn't go to well.... Ouch!!!

      Should listen to Kli......

      Delete
    2. Nah, I was just trying to reply to my own post, and accidentally hit delete. It's difficult to post from my phone.

      Anyway, yeah, shorted 20 shares, so like I said, no biggie, you'll have to hold your jubilation. As for listening to Kli, well, when I decide I want to go bankrupt, he'll be the first person I'll contact to seek his valuable investment advice.

      Do you have some Fukushima news for us Tom? Any 4-legged whales washing ashore in CA perhaps?

      Delete
    3. little testy there bud......and welcome......since you asked, I'll have a new post up for you in a couple of hours

      Delete
  30. Thanks Kli, btw, new gold target is $800 or thereabouts. Target is early 2015, give or take a couple of months.

    It's just fun to see Tom blow a fuse over the tiniest issues.

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