Sunday, January 19, 2014

ECONOMIC HAIR TRIGGER

What happens when you have the largest economies all printing their own currencies in quantities that defy imagination to prevent a deflationary economic collapse? When does the sovereign interest of one of the super-powers over-ride the interest of the whole? In other words, what happens when someone with a hair trigger pulls off the first shot heard round the world?

Is it possible for countries with disparate national interest to maintain a technocratic alliance as the transfer of world domination slowly transfers from West to East? Can the mutual interests currency debasement outweigh the more selfish interest of accumulation of real assets for longer term national dominance as you print you fiat in ever increasing amounts? Look at this another way then, are you willing as a nation to allow your "beggar thy neighbor" to fill their coffers with loot such as real estate, iron ore, aluminum, copper, precious metals, rare metals, and oil, while you maintain your "steady as she goes" fiat printing?  Are your intelligence assets not telling you what is going on with your technocratic "alliance" partner? Sure they are. 

So what do you do? Do you continue the process? You just printed 8 Trillion this past year and you were lapped by your historic nemesis by 10 Trillion. You wanted to devalue your currency to try and extract yourself from decades (plural) stagnation and your "beggar thy neighbor" just plugged you in the behind by 10 Trillion and your currency has barely budged. Your nemesis loaded up on even more energy and commodities to insure their countries future and you plugged deflationary holes. They thumbed you in the eye when you embarked on some nationalistic island hopping and then one-upped you by declaring the entire sea was now owned by them as your Western technocratic super power stood by and sucked their thumb with "Lurch" issuing idle threats to further sand-kicking by your nemesis. 

This is a very tenuous alliance between super-powers that have ZERO love for one another and a history of animosity that has fed numerous bloody conflicts, yet this is what the balance of this faux recovery hinges on. I predict that you are going to see some very uncomfortable defaults taking place soon and for these defaults to be "covered" there will be some VERY severe sacrifices that one of these countries will be asked to make. That word "sacrifice" will begin to take on a new and very desperate meaning as the "global alliances" begin to feel the stress of a history of blood and conflict bearing pressure upon the technocratic leaders. Will it hold.....or will someone pull the trigger?









Wednesday, January 15, 2014

WHEN THE JACKALS BECOME HUNGRY

When the elephant becomes too large and too slow to maneuver through the process of nature's law, then nature will intervene to remedy the situation. This law applies throughout all aspects of behavior in all aspects of life and we are in one of those "cleansing periods" to re-establish the balance of nature. Unfortunately in many of these events there is a tremendous amount of pain to endure until the process is completed. Violations of Nature's law carry consequences and even the massive amount of people we refer to as "sheep" are becoming increasingly uneasy with the myriad of events that are occurring worldwide....and why not.

Just look at the bombardment of events that people are witnessing almost daily and what's worse these are even suppressed on the headlines. Multiple proxy wars are being fought across the globe with casualties occurring daily in multiple sub-Saharan African countries now as Western and Eastern forces engage through direct and indirect troop involvement. The Middle East now has renewed activity in Iraq and Afghanistan as Syria continues to smolder on the back burner. We continue to send Hellfire missiles into civilian targets in Pakistan, while maintaining an increasingly fragile relationship with the Pakistani government (that we installed). Remember, Pakistan has at least 200 nuclear warheads....adjusted for the ones sold to Saudi Arabia.

The CON in CONfidence is being stretched to incredible lengths now and as critical mass is reached, there will be consequences that affect important changes in the balance of global power. There is a reason that physical gold movement is reaching epic levels to the East. There is a reason that Germany PUBLICLY asked for its gold back last year (and will not receive it). Of course we are also discovering as it slowly leaks out that Scandinavian countries and European countries have their gold also stored with the Fed. The West is waking up, but its too late. The Chinese were aggressively accumulating gold this year for a good reason. Its the end of the line for physical gold as the music stops this year. 

The Central planners know the headline price of gold is critical to maintaining the fiat CON. They also know they will have to create a pivot for price. They may have already established the bottom in price as the "bottoming process" continues. Only looking back in time will make this more obvious. I will continue to sit tight at these levels on the miners and will accumulate physical. What you wish to do as headlines about the Royal Family and Hollande's affairs and Football occupy your time will be your own choice. Music is still playing so enjoy the dance.....for now.



Sunday, January 12, 2014

ITS THE GOLD DUMMIES!

WHY? 
What do you mean why?
Why don't you show me my gold? After all it IS my gold! If you won't let me see it then give it back to me.
OK. We will do that. Over the next ten years we will give you back a total of one third of it. Hows that?

Sometimes when you're caught in the middle of a ponzi and you listen to all of the voices telling you its not a ponzi and giving you a hundred reasons why, it does become a little confusing. After all we're talking about the most powerful international cabal operating in over 150 countries for hundreds of years. Do you really think you are going to be privy to their true interests? Let me guess...when President Obama told you back in 2008 that he would have the most transparent economic/market administration in history, you believed it. I wanted to. After all isn't that how true capitalism works for price discovery and optimal function. I guess when they showed him "the film" he realized he would wind up choosing a different road. Which brings me to the point of this thread. How can you sift through all of the noise to find something that provides sanity to support your thesis if you believe that something really is horribly wrong with the public meme that's being pounded into your sheeple brain everyday?

When someone challenges your view on precious metals just ask them to explain this. WHY after over a year has Germany only been given 37 tons of THEIR gold from the Fed's vault in New York? What's worse......the Germans were NOT allowed to even LOOK at their gold for even a cursory audit. 

I'm not very smart but I think I smell a ponzi. In fact this may surprise you but I don't even think the gold is there anymore. Are you shocked? I am. WHO would have thought with the gold price falling like a rock that it would be hard to give back a barbarous relic to solid Western ally such as Germany? Its simple enough. Just show them the gold and explain to them why you have to wait ten years to just give them a portion of it back. But wait...there's more. You know that 37 tons of that barbarous relic they finally gave them. IT WASN'T EVEN THEIR GOLD. It was rehypothecated/recast .999 fine gold with obviously NONE of their registered stamps. What would you do if you were the Germans? Crickets.

There are still plenty of sheep out there that don't get it and never will so don't get your panties in a wad if you don't get an immediate WOW when you give them the above story. After all they're waiting for the much lower prices to buy as I'm sure they will tell you. And when you ask them how much gold they have "just in case" that washout low price doesn't materialize......the true answer is "my high school ring". After all we've got bit coin now and Google is over a thousand.

Just before you leave the conditioned lab rat, you may want to ask him to explain WHY the Chinese government has not released their gold holdings for over 6 years. Then ask the mutant grave stone standing in front of you WHY the Chinese government just imported over 2000 tons of gold this past year alone. It just make no sense. Chinese are considered the to be some of the most astute business people in history. They also are known to be the longest term economic planners in history. Maybe that's why Swiss refiners have been running 24/7 for three years now melting German/Swedish/Dutch oz bars into kilo .999 bars.  Nahhh......that can't be true, after all a price collapse in gold means that gold demand is dropping.  What do you think Geithner was promising the Chicoms with all of his trips over there four years ago. hehehehe

Sometimes its better to pay attention and watch the left hand and NOT that right hand waving with the white glove on it. gl with your plan.





Tuesday, January 7, 2014

DOOMSDAY DOLTS AGAIN!

Then again perhaps some common sense discussion is in order on this "all is good in the World" day. Just what constitutes a true Doomsday scenario? We've read and talked about just how fragile our JIT systems are in terms of food and other essentials. We've discussed just how vulnerable our transportation system is to different types of breakdowns in the grid etc.. In keeping with the theme of "doomsday" I thought I might discuss and area that I have some very personal expertise in just to provoke some thought and maybe just maybe it might help some of us someday should the "unthinkable" happen. 

I have been involved in emergency planning for several cities in the U.S. during my lifetime including medium large cities and small cities. They all have a variety of needs that aren't obviously common. Just for instance. In your smaller communities/emergency planning, one of the key bottlenecks in mass casualties is how to not only care for them but how to transport them to larger more complex institutions. This scenario applies to mass casualty situations like tornadoes, where your community is devastated and your hospital is overwhelmed. This is all well and good but what happens when your higher level transfer centers are overwhelmed....or worse....destroyed. Your community hospital becomes ground zero for this disaster and is incapable of delivering life saving care after the first few critical patients overwhelm it. You are now isolated at your own structure or what is left of it. Do you have any simple precautions taken to provide some minimal level of survival while the area you live in is hopefully repaired and supplies find there way to your community? 

The real reason I am writing this is for a situation that is a real threat to the system that not too many people discuss. What happens to your community and virtually every community in your country when a "high mortality" viral...SARS type epidemic breaks out? I know......"I'll deal with it when or IF it happens".......or....."That's what the CDC is for and it will warn me"......or....."That's what our doctors, hospitals, and emergency system is for"...."I'll get my vaccine and take my antibiotics"....

Is this a "high probability" event? It certainly becomes a higher probability event over time for a variety of reasons such as population congestion, antibiotic over-usage, genetic modification etc..... BUT again let's get back to something no one wants to discuss in the field of "disaster planning"..... People like budfox believe that contingencies for this are all dealt with, but I will tell you from being in these planning sessions that the following scenario is NOT discussed. 

I ask periodically for a show of hands from groups of doctors and nurses in emergency care how many would show up for work in a 50% mortality rate epidemic such as a SARS outbreak. The answer is surprisingly quick and virtually unanimous which actually surprises me knowing how the bravado permeates this particular group. The answer is NOT ONE.......NONE.......would show up for work. The reason is they have dealt with fatal respiratory infections in young healthy people secondary to aggressive viruses like MRSA staph, and many others. They want NO part of high mortality H1N1 outbreak that's mutated (either naturally or otherwise). They know that in a hospital they would be ground zero and more than likely in a 50% mortality epidemic, they would die if exposed.....at least that is what they say. I agree.

They know there only hope would be to keep themselves and their family isolated from the "vectors" carrying the disease which means "more than proper handwashing".  I'll stick with the emergency care providers and how they will react BEFORE the epidemic becomes widespread. What about other areas of the system? Wal Mart? Grocery stores, Quick Trips? Of course this is only "fear mongering" and nonsensical since it cannot happen and you will have plenty of time to "prepare"...... gl











Saturday, January 4, 2014

BERNANKE BUBBLE TROUBLE

NO ONE can possibly know the exact timeline of the "pop" or in what manner the "pop" occurs to this latest bubble creation. Its nothing to create a massive market bubble, so don't be deluded by the usual bubble rhetoric that ALWAYS occurs at the top of bubbles. 

The "doom and gloom" rhetoric tends to be stifled by the louder boasts of the latest bubble riders and paid promoters of the casino. Public capitulation of the loudest bears becomes public fodder on many public financial sites as the final distribution of shares from the smart money to the dumb money transpires. The cries of a "further 8% move" become almost deafening. Why not jump on? Everyone now is predicting a long, lasting, "recovery". Even  some of the previous loudest bears are saying we could see a rally into the latter half of this year as Europe and the U.S. recover. Ignoring now the previous macro rationale  for their negative outlook, they have suddenly began crouding onto the "other side" of the boat. As the market reaches into RECORD Bull market timeline and RECORD Bull market numbers the bears begin to turn more BULLISH. 

How MIGHT the resolution of this bubble occur? Bernanke is gone and a new Chairman is arriving. One only needs to go back a few decades to see what the scenario MIGHT be by examining what happened as the last two exchanges of the baton looked like. Historically when Greenspan took over from Volker after a similar 5 year bull run a sudden and violent two day crash occurred just a few months after his tenure began. The 2007-2009 Great Recession and market crash occurred shortly after Bernanke took over from Greenspan. So you see there is NO implied "grace period" for the newly arriving Fed Chairman. In fact if one is looking at a market bubble AND a newly arriving Fed Chairman then one should be wary of playing in the great casino at least based on past performances. But of course the temptation is very strong. How can one ignore the money being made recently. How can one ignore the gains made in high flying stocks like Twitter, Amazon, Chipotle, Starbucks....etc.......?? Its intoxicating. The allure is overwhelming. How can you resist?  All you had to do was just buy the dips and hold on for a few weeks and you could have traded them for tidy profits.....OR better yet you bought the dips and held them for gains 200%. One cannot resist those type potential gains. Worse yet......IF you missed them, you feel the need now to CATCH UP. You know what I mean......YOU'RE GETTING LAPPED. 

Those unending voices beckoning you to the game. Telling you that if you're worried we're near a top then JUST use protection. You can be cautious. Buy puts, sell calls.....just keep your stops close.....you know what to do, its easy......"look at me, I'm not that smart and I made a ton". Those are the voices at the top of a market top and NOT the beginning of a bull market. 

In 1987 during a relatively prosperous economic boom in this country, one day after a particularly ugly correction the prior day in the market, we experienced a massive sell off in one day of 22.6% and this was even with the market shutting trading down intraday. To this day there is absolutely NO explanation WHY this sell off/crash occurred. Theories abound, but strangely NO ONE ever established a sound explanation, after multiple forensic analysis just how and why it actually occurred. 

In 2000 the voices once again shouted to the moon how high the Nazdaq could go. Once price targets were hit on on high fliers like Cisco Systems, WorldCom, etc. they would trot out the same analysts and a higher target price would be established. Seldom did you hear mention "take your profit and run". They always had an explanation for a "higher" target price. Even the phrase "its different this time" popped up. Well it wasn't and once again they flushed the "dumb money". It wasn't the end of the world either. It was just another pump and dump at the casino. The World's economic health was stronger those previous dumps with less worldwide debt and certainly they didn't have 1.5 Quadrillion in derivatives hanging over the game. Maybe the doomers will have their day with the JIT delivery systems and the fragility of the interconnected World economies straining to maintain their social/political balances, but there is one thing certain.......its not "different this time" in the great casino. They suck the dumb money in during distribution and then short market into oblivion and soak up the shares at a big discount to run the whole game over again. gl