Tuesday, August 25, 2015

DEAR JANET PLEASE HELP

I know this will not find your eyes but I thought I would make an attempt. I have been back in the stock market after watching CNBC and many on the financial news channels tell me the Fed will print money and keep the market up. I'm now very nervous and don't believe some of these pundits like Steve Liesman that has told me over and over that we are in an economic recovery because the brilliant economists at the Fed have engineered our economy into the great recovery. I've heard things now like a "jobless recovery", but I have THREE jobs so I just don't believe this recovery is jobless. I don't understand why people are saying they're having problem making ends meet with this economic recovery. I for one have saved a ton of money by just continuing to live with my mom and dad. They appreciate having me in the house, but its starting to interfere with my marriage prospects, but I can postpone that since I'm only 34.

Here's where I feel let down right now. I watch CNBC and I am a free market capitalist like they are. So I have to ask you WHY you are letting the market fall like this? I know you have the power to print more money and provide the fuel necessary for this stock market to reach even higher highs than before. There is no reason for you to raise interest rates and not print more dollars. I was at my Starbucks job yesterday and overheard a rich guy that comes in there tell his table there is no reason to have a correction. My generation and for that matter all generations need your help. Please consider this request. 

Yours truly  Andy Rand

Dear Andy

Read this please, your pal Janet.

Primary Downward Trend (Bear Market)

The Distribution PhaseThe first phase in a bear market is known as the distribution phase, the period in which informed buyers sell (distribute) their positions. This is the opposite of the accumulation phase during a bull market in that the informed buyers are now selling into an overbought market instead of buying in an oversold market.

In this phase, overall sentiment continues to be optimistic, with expectations of higher market levels. It is also the phase in which there is continued buying by the last of the investors in the market, especially those who missed the big move but are hoping for a similar one in the near future.

As was the case in the accumulation phase, the distribution phase can be difficult to spot in its early stages. The reason for this is that it may be disguised as a secondary downward trend within the primary upward trend.

From a technical standpoint, the distribution phase is represented by a topping of the market where the price movement starts to flatten as selling pressure increases . The mid to latter stages of the distribution phase will see prices start to fall as more and more investors, anticipating weakness, exit their positions.

A new downward trend will be confirmed when the previous trend fails to make another consecutive higher high and low.





Public Participation Phase
This phase is similar to the public participation phase found in a primary upward trend in that it lasts the longest and will represent the largest part of the move - in this case downward. 

During this phase it is clear that the business conditions in the market are getting worse and the sentiment is becoming more negative as time goes on. The market continues to discount the worsening conditions as selling increases and buying dries up.

This is also the point at which most trend followers and technical traders start to dump their positions and take short positions as the new downward trend has confirmed itself.

The Panic PhaseThe last phase of the primary downward market tends to be filled with market panic and can lead to very large sell-offs in a very short period of time. In the panic phase, the market is wrought up with negative sentiment, including weak outlooks on companies, the economy and the overall market. 

During this phase you will see many investors selling off their stakes in panic. Usually these participants are the ones that just entered the market during the excess phase of the previous run-up in share price.

But just when things start to look their worst is when the accumulation phase of a primary upward trend will begin and the cycle repeats itself.


Read more: Dow Theory: The Three Phases Of Primary Trends | Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/university/dowtheory/dowtheory3.asp#ixzz3jrY1DbrH 
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77 comments:

  1. good one kli so true

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  2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=71&v=1ayEm8EAiY4

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  3. everyone was expecting the collapse in September and October and guess what..........August......hehehehehehehehehehe.......you think these guys aren't good?

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    1. Doesn't mean it won't continue into Sept-Oct. We've had distribution in many stocks since May. Oh, how they manipulate the indices, AAPL closed green but was down 1.5% AH. Kinda, sorta wish I'd held my shorts but I thought they'd at least try for a little green with the Fed meeting in Jackson Hole. Maybe not.

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  4. Whats good about them ? Kindle

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  5. What's good about them is that they make mentally deranged fools like Kliguy and his errand boy Tom happy that there's chaos in the world,

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    1. are you referring to the deranged fools that have warned YOU about the chaos you now admit to coming in this world due to the corruption of the global banking system???? I assume you are referring to those deranged fools.

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  6. S-i-n-c-e I n-e-e-d t-o s-p-e-a-k s-l-o-w-l-y f-o-r S-k-i-p-p-y's s-a-k-e....... hehehehe

    No one want's whats about to happen certainly not I BUT

    I-t w-a-s S-k-i-p-p-y t-h-a-t s-u-p-p-o-r-t-e-d t-h-e v-e-r-y s-y-s-t-e-m a-n-d p-e-o-p-l-e t-h-a-t a-r-e a-b-o-u-t t-o c-r-u-s-h u-s a-l-l.......

    W-a-t-t-a P-u-t-z

    Slow enough for y'a..... hehehhehe

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  7. HO LEE FUK, we need Kliguy to save us from this catastrophic doom! Should we buy MOAR gold? Hehehehehe.....

    The fact is, we have two 60-something fools here, dumb as shit, rooting and praying for the end of the world. What these putzes fail to realize is that crises come and go, and yet in the long term, this is all noise, it doesn't matter. The world as we know it will not end, and life will go on no matter how many drunken posts Kliguy makes or how many ZH articles dumbfuk Tom copies and pastes. So, enjoy the show, eat MOAR popcorn, and just remember no one will remember this a few months from now.

    But listen putzes, don't choke on that popcorn, you don't want to miss the end of the world. Hehehehe....

    Plus, we need you to operate this blog for our daily entertainment, until big brother shuts it down, of course. Hehehehe.....

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    Replies
    1. Oh trust me my disturbed little friend. I cannot probably save myself from what is coming much less anyone else, but you are allowed to express your limited opinion freely so please screech on. You seem angry.

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  8. Geez Andy, take an economics class and a couple of history lessons.

    Capitalism, BWAAAHAHAHA.

    -OH

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    1. Oh, and a neighbor of mine said the Chinese have to learn how to manipulate as well as we do here. BWAAAHAHAHA.

      We don't need no stinkin' fundamentals, we got manipulation, you just got to fool them better.

      -OH

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    2. OH.... He is parroting what CNBS pundits are saying .... No chit.....THEY actually are saying the same thing on CNBS with a straight face. NEVER in my life could I believe our "free market capitalist" could get away with this level of propaganda......but they do

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    3. Free market? Of course it's a free market and your 401k is fine, just fine! No need to panic.

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  9. China Syndrome?

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-26/china-loses-all-control-arrests-journalist-financial-executive-over-market-crash

    Hehehehehe

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  10. If you aren't afraid of the truth the Sinclair vid above is great especially the middle section on the PPT

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  11. Sinclair interview was great. YOU MUST LISTEN TO IT ALL. Btw this is my point for the day. Watch what happens today if they cannot keep this hard green. If this rally fades today then we are in an accelerated collapse......gl

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  12. bot silver today ....thanks cartel

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  13. Spot Gold $1123.2 $1124.2 (-13.9) 02:49:39 PM - 08/26/2015
    Spot Silver $14.07 $14.17 (-0.43) 02:49:45 PM - 08/26/2015

    KLI: You must have one heck of a safe. Do you ever get nervous about the security of your physical metals?


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    1. Paint the bars purple/pink with a little bit of bird poop and place them as landscaping bricks or fireplace bricks.

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    2. not as much as I fear for my fiat in the bank or my stock portfolio

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  14. Hourly S&P score chart for those handicapping the fun.

    http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=sp500&x=48&y=9&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=7%2F2%2F2013&freq=8&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=&ma=1&maval=20&uf=8&lf=2&lf2=32&lf3=4&type=4&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11

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  15. He's only paying $3 over spot..

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    1. It helps when you buy more then one coin..... hehehehe

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  16. if I were shorting and I am not I would begin re entering my shorts on CMG or NFLX..... layer in carefully if they open them green tomorrow.........gotta love that volatility...... NO rush to go short heavy here.

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  17. The 7 year cycle) - Shemitah and Jubilee:

    Those expecting a Stock Market crash on September 13, 2015 (elul 29) [September 14, 1st trading day]; expect to be disappointed!



    Choosing to believe or not, we are living in prophetic times. From a prophetic perspective, the exact night of Babylon’s destruction and Belshazzar’s (Nebuchadnezzar’s son) death was predetermined by the God of Israel 2520 weeks (7-years x 7-cycle = 49, 360-day years) in advance when Nebuchadnezzar first destroyed the Temple and stolen the implements. That exact night of Belshazzar’s death and Babylon’s destruction, God wrote ‘MENE, MENE, TEKEL, PARSIN’ on the wall. The very next day the next 2520 week clock started and God has been marking time since. As stated by Solomon… Everything Has Its TIME! – Ecclesiastes 3



    The last 2520 week countdown clock began on June 7, 1967 when Israeli recaptured Jerusalem and ends exactly 2520 weeks later, this September 23, 2015 as referenced in our prior article titled

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  18. Hehehehe......hehehehehe........

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    1. you're saved Skippy from your "chaos" by your gov handlers

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  19. http://johngaltfla.com/wordpress/2015/08/26/despite-todays-619-point-rally-it-is-not-good-news-for-the-markets/

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  20. Mr. Jay, silver was on sale today, 6-year lows. I hope you "BOT SUM MOAR". Hehehehe....

    Don't buy stocks, listen to Kli and buy gold/silver. That's the only way to make it to the "other side". Once CONfidence is gone and nature starts calling, the call will be answered. Don't worry about NUTTIN else, Kliguy will show us the way (with Tom trailing right behind him, as always).

    Hehehehe......hehehehehe.....

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    1. Buy INTEL and Hold....ITS A PEACH Jay...hehehheheheheheheeheh hey Jay Intel is so good that if you had bot and held it since 2000 you would only be down by 50% today......hey Jay that Skippy is da BEST

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  21. Remember Mr. Jay, if you took Kli's advice the past 7 years, stayed out of stocks, loaded up on miners and metals, well, you'd be bankrupt right now.

    That Kli, he's the best. Hehehehe.....

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  22. Too much advice... Hehe.... I like KLI's play with NFLX....

    If it goes heavy green at the open....short the crap out of it.

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  23. Jonathan Cahn's stunning revelation of The Mystery of the Shemitah lies behind everything from the greatest stock market crashes in Wall Street history, global cataclysms, World War I, World War II, the rise and fall of great powers, the collapse of empires, the atomic age, the cold war, 9/11, even the rise of America, and a warning of its fall. It even holds the key to what the future has in store.

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  24. David Knox Barker is a long wave analyst, technical market analyst, world-systems analyst and author of Jubilee on Wall Street; An Optimistic Look at the Global Financial Crash, Updated and Expanded Edition (2009). He is the founder of LongWaveDynamics.com, and the publisher and editor of The Long Wave Dynamics Letter and the LWD Weekly Update Blog. Barker has studied and researched the Kondratieff long wave “Jubilee” cycle for over 25 years

    Reference Jubilee as it applies to our current debt situation. Some claim this Jubilee (3500 years - 70 Jubilees) is the END time....

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  25. Skippy - is that enuff Doom and Gloom 4 U?? All is well. Hehehehe

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  26. Wow, the Kondratieff Jubilee! Sounds like a doom TV special they watch at the mental hospital after they take their medz?

    I've seen nonsense and garbage posted on this blog for 7 years (and counting), but this Inlet fellow has taken things to another level.

    Hehehehe......

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    1. you must like sumthin' here skippy you keep showin' up like a lost puppy dog......can't shake you loose from my pants leg

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    2. repeat after me skippy......all is good......all is good .....all is good......there skippy now you should feel better

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    3. Skippy you ignorant ape reference the Bible (Daniel, Leviticus, Revelations) for the information on Jubilee and Shemitah. Of course you prefer to remain ignorant and show it in every post you make. Hehehehe All is well.

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    4. He really likes to load up on ignorance.......he's a stock pro now........BUY Intel and HOLDDDDDDDDDDD.............its a weeeeener

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    5. Let's see if Skippy argues with the Bible like he does KWN and Zerohedge.... All is good.

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    6. skippy is scared AND ignorant.......bad combination for the human condition and you can't fix stupid so he's foched..........still fun to have around when this bear finishes with him I'm sure he will be long gone

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  27. boyz have handed off to the BTFD bagholders.......let's see if the PPT paints the tape or lets it sell off the last hour

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  28. You can't make this up...Bob Pisani just said they had to shut down a "dark pool" trading center in New Jersey because of air conditioning problems......BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

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    1. Hard to believe he admitted that but only about 3 people saw it! Too bad Mr. Skip wasn't watching.

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  29. NFLX should fill the gap rather rapidly......maybe even by the close

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NFLX&p=30&yr=0&mn=0&dy=5&id=p92281654958&a=422167112&listNum=1

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  30. Twitter friend (lives near sister in Charlotte):

    natasha ‏@Carolinasusie · 1h1 hour ago
    @inlett i agree, go go go soon , bear market rally almost done, fade it

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  31. kli hitting the bid into close hard but the bid is DP so it should hold today

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    1. Not the one in NJ...ya mean there's another one? Lol.

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  32. The Fed owns the market, plane and simple.
    Kindle He Knows

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    1. In that case I guess they have a problem because they now own a stinking pile o dog chit........hehehehhehehehe......hope they like it

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    2. Hows that ? They print money for nothing and buy stocks for something....I wish I could do that..Know what I mean..

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    3. they don't make money keeping a market up indefinitely ...otherwise there would not have been multiple CRASHES over the past 100 years........They make money pumping up bubbles and then BURSTING them.....they pick up the pieces for pennies and blow the next bubble.........THAT is the game and THAT has always been the game

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  33. KLI: I didn't get a chance to play Netflix today. My day job was just too busy. It's currently 1 PM here in Seattle and I haven't even gotten up to piss yet.

    I did see NFLX jumped to 6.8% Not a good day for short layering or put options.

    Tomorrow is looking busy as hell too at the day job. Maybe this is God's sign for me to stay out of the casino.

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  34. btw jay...read this carefully it tells you to short them if they are up in the am......they were and you could have made a nice 5% trade in the afternoon. but this is called layering so right now at the 118 you are flat if you still hold your position......if you are conservative then you add no further to your position and let them run it......since I'm not in it I have not looked at resistance but will later tonite.......I think this is a huge bull trap.......(so do a lot of traders so be careful)

    "if I were shorting and I am not I would begin re entering my shorts on CMG or NFLX..... layer in carefully if they open them green tomorrow.........gotta love that volatility...... NO rush to go short heavy here."

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  35. this should get your attention

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-28/total-capitulation-biggest-weekly-equity-outflow-record

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  36. http://srsroccoreport.com/must-see-chart-something-quite-interesting-happened-in-the-silver-market/must-see-chart-something-quite-interesting-happened-in-the-silver-market/

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  37. HCG recommends VNR a week ago and I bet no takers? 50+% gain plus yield....

    that and the Vix swings is like nirvana for money printing....News is just BS they run by the sheep to shear them...

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    1. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-28/oil-surges-after-saudi-troops-invade-yemen

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    2. BTW HCG.........good call I liked it .....but I have enuff paper shit already

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    3. energy sector deserves a big bounce and has to recover for the recovery meme to even have a chance....(it doesn't) but they'll eventually inflate the deflation cycle and energy will really start to move. Unfortunately that could be several years off.

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    4. and lastly....... I find your news comment interesting.....".News is just BS they run by the sheep to shear them..".... I totally agree...CNBS FOX Biz Bloomberg run multiple news stories every day... Most of there stories are directed towards a bullish market point of view....with some ( minority) bearish perspectives. I have my filter and use it accordingly, fully understanding their meme has a motive. Unless you live in a cave, I would suggest that even the "bullish" stories have kernels of truth to ferret out, if for nothing else their motives/goals. You apparently hate the bullish case CNBS and bloomy are putting out to shear the sheep........so do I..... or maybe you are referring just to the ZH liars......

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    5. Yeah foching ZH'ers hehehehe btw: If you were playing and got it right there was tons of coin to be made off that volatility... just saying, but I ain't playing, so much more relaxing...... You know us old farts can only handle just so much excitement in one day hahahahaha

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    6. Sorry I missed that one HCG. Keep 'em coming. Still doing well with CEMP.

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  38. Yes Kliguy, you must certainly have enough paper "shit", can't find a better description for your miners. But they are all going to da moon! Hehehehe.....

    So, what happened Kliguy? I thought the world was ending? The fun part about a little volatility in the markets like we saw the last 2 weeks is that it gets dumfuk doomers like you and Tom all excited that the end you have so desperately been waiting for is finally here. Always fun to see you two get worked up into a foam at the mouth, only to have your asses handed back to you.

    Hehehehe......Hehehehe.....

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    1. Yawn....... You really are one strange Dude.....

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  39. I wish to apologize to all apes for this

    "Skippy you ignorant ape" as apes are much smarter than Skippy. Hehehehe

    All is good

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  40. apparently he doesn't know what a powerful counter trend rally is in a bear market. which we are now in

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    1. yuy Counter-trend rally in a primary bear is to inflict maximum pain. Its designed to flush out panic established short positions (and sucker shorts) AND to reassure the perma bulls their long positions are not only safe but the bull rally will continue forever..........ie skippy etc....gl

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  41. Rumor has it that Chinese govt. is buying up Shanghai securities... Sounds familiar?

    AIG, CITI, JPM ring any bells?

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  42. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-29/despite-being-pet-rock-premium-physical-bullion-exploding

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  43. Its getting closer.

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