Tuesday, December 22, 2015

THE FOG OF WAR

Tired of it yet? Ya gotta be chokin' on the BS pouring out every single morning. You turn on Bloomberg and two economic journalists are arguing for 15 minutes the difference between the meaning of "measured" and "slow". They must think we are complete idiots (hopefully if you are still here you aren't). To think that anyone that is a real investor really pays any attention to these absurd word games from the spinmeisters at this point in the game is absurd, but I'm sure they believe the masses are lulled into a stupor as they slice and dice the Fed music.

If you think this music is going to disappear soon, you are mistaken. They will only increase their efforts to soothe your nerves with even more Fedspeak.  They've GOT to keep the masses CONfident the game can be extended. GDP, PMI, LEI, Baltic Dry Index, are all collapsing worldwide and we RAISE interest rates. WHY? Its really very simple. They are trying every trick in the book to CONvince the public that we are in a very slow RECOVERY!!

The Fed knows very well the velocity of money is dead. They can't resuscitate a corpse but they're going to keep pretending they can. Reality is not going to be like 2008. Remember when the 20 members of the Government and the Fed all stood on the stage together that morning on September 15 and said they all had been puking for an hour in a meeting and told you the world almost ended before they digitally printed 500 Billion that morning and sent it all over the world to stem the bank runs. Well, that was a lie. They printed over 4 Trillion that morning and 4 Trillion the next week. This time lets see how they allay the bank runs. Let me give you a hint...... CAPITAL CONtrols!! Its already started in a number of countries including our own. Don't believe me huh? Try taking 10K out of your bank tomorrow. These are "soft" CONtrols. The hard ones will be much more unpleasant.  Try transferring money out of the country. Its your money, so its your right. You paid taxes on it already, so try it. China's already locking their people down. Why do you think that art work is selling for hundreds of millions for a single bullshit painting.

You see it all, right? Or maybe you don't buy the reality. Maybe its the music. Maybe its the Fog. You know, the Fog of War. Its a war to save the dollar. A war to save our current way of life. It really is a global war. You just have trouble seeing it because of the fog. gl











79 comments:

  1. Ray Dalio (one of the largest fund managers - $130 billion or so) says 2015 rhymes with 1937. His reasoning is something like this:

    What do 1929 and 2013 have in common -- Margin Debt/GDP ratio highest in 85 years (highest since 1929). Danger point is over margin 2.25% of GDP.

    Interest rates hit zero (negative in 1930s with deflation) (2008 and 1931).

    Money printing starts, kicking off deleveraging (2009 and 1933).

    The stock market and "risky assets" rally 2009-2014 and 1933-1936.

    The economy improves (2009-2014 and 1933-1936).

    The central bank tightens, resulting in a self-reinforcing downturn (2015 and 1937).

    Lots of similarity.....

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  2. Mr. Jay,

    I would like to apologize for my earlier comment. I mistakenly assumed you were a liberal being from that leftist hellhole Seattle, but glad to know you are not. I believe liberalism is a mental disorder and the liberal policies of the past 50 years have done untold amount of damage to our once great nation. Maybe Trump is the real deal and he can fix some of this mess, worst case he has at least caused an awakening amongst a certain segment of the population with his non-PC rhetoric and discussing topics that are taboo or near-taboo. That gives me some hope at least.

    As for Kliguy, I respectfully disagree with you that he wins some, loses some. This Obama-voting, FSA-supporting socialist lunatic doomer mostly loses. He has a one-track mind focused around accumulating physical metals and only advocates playing "their paper game" thru his worthless, POS miners. It's not hyperbole to say that his advice can bankrupt you, so be careful. His nonsensical proclamation that CMG is headed below $100 is one in a long line of bogus calls that have never even come close to materializing. He's wrong by a mile each and every time.

    I bring this up because you and I have a lot more in common than these doomer loons. If you stick to a consistent, disciplined investment approach, you will do just fine in the long run. I'll share with you some of my 2016 picks later on, and I can guarantee you they will beat anything Kliguy recommends.

    In ten years, you and I will have doubled or tripled our money, while Kli will still be "backing up the truck" and accumulating gold and silver with zero returns, or like poor Paladdin, lose 1/3 of his "investment" while waiting for the "rocketship to da moon".

    Hehehehehe......

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Certainly a very cogent, well written article and I agree skippy.....let me know your picks so I can get in on the action too. We're ready and willing to make money here.....yum yum eat um up boyz.

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    2. BTW skippy.....WAAAAAAAAAAY below 100 on CMG

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  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  4. Snot's,

    Hehehehehe..... "I bring this up because you and I have a lot more in common than these doomer loons. If you stick to a consistent, disciplined investment approach, you will do just fine in the long run. I'll share with you some of my 2016 picks later on, and I can guarantee you they will beat anything Kliguy recommends."

    I knew Jay's comment had to be eating at you, can't stand it I'll bet.... Must be so lonely being you hehehehe....

    btw: I'll agree with you on one thing re: CMG Kli said the chain was OK or more like the concept was OK which ever he meant and that may be so BUT that chain has serious management issues to allow a problem like this to go on for so long and get so broad.... Stuff like this can really fock up a chains reputation for a good long time. Now with that being said, I totally agree with Kli's $100 price, there's no focking way this company is worth what it trading now even after the beat down... hhehheheeee

    OH and WHY WAIT till 2016 to share, tell us all how you did for 2015 being your such the active trader.... Hahahahaha

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  5. Tom, why wait? Here is Snot's picks:

    Bud fox
    December 21, 2015 at 12:39 pm
    You just need to watch monthly charts with a 10 SMA.
    The best trend riding tool there is. When price closes below get out.

    Pull up charts of Appl, AMZN, LMT.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. wow.....that's where I'm goin' with my greenbacks for surrrrrrrrrrrrre... guess he gave up on INTEL

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    2. Why a 10 (month) SMA? Why not a 40 (week) SMA or even a 50 (week) SMA? 40-50 week approximates 10 months. Why SMA? Why not EMA or front weighed MA?

      Are you gonna take Snot's word that 10 month SMA is best? Where is his proof?

      And who is stupid and cannot be helped because there is no cure for stupid? That is right - it is Snot.

      Delete
  6. Tom, and that brain-damaged imbecile Inlet, and your master bum Kli, if you were all on fire, I wouldn't piss on your dumbasses.

    Hehehehehe......

    Waaaaaay below $100 on CMG? You're sure about yourself, ain't you fool? Well then, you better "short the chit out of it because it's done", right?

    Hehehehehe....

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    1. Well Snot's I wouldn't think you could, didn't think you could aim a Va-jay-jay...... hehehehehe

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    2. I'm disappointed in you Skippy. You penned a very nice comment above and I actually felt like I you had some great points and you start name calling again. Oh, well I guess I will turn over Jay to you in exchange for leniency. Take it easy on us, I'll let Jay join your team.

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  7. Buddfox: Apology accepted. I agree that Seattle is as Marxist as they get, but it's also a great place to live. I work in hi tech, make a decent wage and my boss doesn't care if I day trade the casino. Can't complain about that.

    I would like to see your 2016 picks. I saw rumors that Uber and Airbnb might go public this coming year. Should be interesting.

    As for KLI... His strategy is clearly to protect his family if we ever have a black swan event. Sticking with miners was a huge mistake and I'm sure it costed him thousands of dollars, but he can't win them all.... He also called for a short of CMG at 580... Depending on how much he put in, he probably made thousands. Have you noticed that KLI has backed off the miners and now just stocks up on physical metals? We live and learn. Our strategy here shouldn't be bashing each other, it should be helping each other make money. You almost seem to enjoy it when KLI makes a bad call.

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    Replies
    1. Have not sold miners. In fact buying more with new capital. enjoy

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  8. Budfox,

    What are your thoughts on this?

    "In an interview with National Public Radio, Obama accused Trump of preying on the fears and anxiety of the blue-collar, working-class men who have fueled his surge to the top of the GOP field.

    Obama told NPR host Steve Inskeep that because of "economic stresses," like stagnating wages and incomes, working-class men "have had a lot of trouble in this new economy.""

    We are doomed hehehehe. -OH

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    Replies
    1. Hey OH,

      Do you think that tool read the TPP he's hawking?

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    2. Tommy, it's either pure evil or pure stupidity or maybe a mixture of both but that statement above says a lot. Welcome to the NEW ECONOMY.

      How does it feel to be living in the Twilight zone?

      -OH

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    3. He knows very well what he is doing. Most people still don't fully grasp the enormity of the takeover and believe that it can be changed by voting a Republipuke into office or a "strong" man like Hillary Clinton.......She's proven she can be "strong" by killing Ghadaffi and laughing about it.

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  9. Jay,

    Since you like playing the casino, just look at what Kli is trading hehehehe that is if you like 30% to 70% returns.... I'm not playing right now been doing sum moar collecting and what ever is left over is going to pay for my crumb cruncher's "higher education", got the last two going at the same time Ughhhhhh.... What a focking racket this "higher education" chit is but what's ya gonna do.... but if I did have sum spare coin to gamble with, I'd be doing what he's doing...... Now's the time to get in, not when we did heheheheheee Our timing was off big time but there's still good money to be made swinging some of these miner's..... Look at them at least....

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    1. "Bad Timing" you say? Oh now Tom I think a 90% drop in the miners is a little worse than bad timing...hehehhehee....I like to refer to it as a slaughter.....tsk tsk...its PAPER!!!! You are most likely NOT going to get out of this casino with your chips ANYWAY!!! hehehehe but just in case I do I will keep playing the bloodiest most slaughtered sector in it........ That's where the money will rotate into first. As far as metal goes if you don't own it by now you never will and most that own it already are too afraid to buy now at this level so we are at a nice inflection point. Could it get worst for the metal? Maybe but you and I are guessing so I keep buying and have the capacity to do so. Unfortunately most that bought 5 years ago don't. They really don't count anyway when the big money does roll into it and they will......they always do.

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    2. BTW I believe that its called "Buy when there's "blood in the streets" and if this isn't blood in the streets I don't know what it is....maybe "traumatic hemorrhage".....

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    3. Well it WAS bad timing hehehehe Just trying to get some lipstick on that Pig..... hahahahaha

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    4. I can honestly say it hasn't made a dimes worth of difference the way I view the trade for ME....and haven't lost any sleep over it. Holding the miners HERE is certainly more sensible than holding Faceplant or NFLX or CMG or for that matter90% of the SnP with the exception maybe of some Energy stocks.........In fact as you and I both know its been the opportunity of a lifetime to accumulate physical if you still have cash flow and I do fortunately. So thanks Cabal and I really do mean that.

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  10. KLI: How can you advocate buying gold when the Fed is raising interest rates? The dollar is poised to get much stronger in 2016 and this just seems like a bad time to be buying precious metals. Wouldn't it be prudent to wait until the Fed stops raising rates before buying physical?

    I'm one of those people that doesn't own an ounce of gold. I though about buying some after the .com crash and again after 2008. But now I see what's going on. The Fed can QE QE QE and at the same time keep gold prices low. I don't know how they do it.. but they do.

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    1. Don't take this the wrong way Jay, but you will never own real gold or silver if you don't own it by now. You don't buy it for the reasons you just mentioned. You buy it as "wealth insurance"

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    2. The media tries to CONvince you that gold is only good in inflation....not true......it was the biggest performer during the last true deflationary collapse in the 30s as were the gold miners. It is where fear goes when the "paper Ponzi" CONfidence is lost just as it was in October of 2008 which was when it bottomed 6 months before the market bottomed....I could go on but I have covered this a number of times. Its why Market experts like Dalio, Druckenmiller, Fleckenstein, Faber,Rogers, etc tell you to own physical gold. EVEN ALAN FKN GREENSPAN tell you to..........but alas you do not and remarkably you never will, but I still like you.....gl Jay

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    3. One comment I saw yesterday on this topic was that when interest rates are rising, it is often in response to rising inflation. For example, if the FED raises rates to 20% while inflation is running at 40%, your dollar is being heavily devalued and you want to own gold.

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  11. Jay,

    Look to history..... Fiats, Script ect have come and gone yet Physical Gold and Silver have always been a store of wealth since time immemorial... Dude if anything go buy a couple boxes of 100oz Silver coins, stick it in a draw, the price is right and you'll love yourself sometime down the road for doing it....

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  12. I'll wait until the Fed stops raising rates. Gainesville Coins isn't going anywhere.

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    Replies
    1. That's exactly what they want you to believe.

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    2. I believe the Window to own physical may be closed so quickly by price/availability that very few will own it. The reason is physics. 1200 Trillion notional fiat to buy a tiny amount of physical gold/silver available.....good luck...NONE AVAILABLE AT ANY PRICE

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    3. Kinda like trying to buy Flood Insurance a week before a Hurricane hits..... GL with that.... hehehe

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    4. what's funny tom is they think they will.......the CONditioning is complete

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  13. Hey Snot's,

    Kli was right again..... Hehehehehe. Don't ya just love it!!!!!

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  14. Buying RWM - down 3+% from where I sold on Friday. Expect to hold 2-3 days.

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    1. puthy ....so ya think the boyz'll come back and sell this pig next week????....what about that xmas rally

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    2. Year end tax selling peaks next week?

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    3. RWM charts also:
      http://www.swingcycles.blogspot.com/2015/12/dec-21-2015-weekly-outlook.html

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  15. Losing my arse on my KMX puts today. What a great way to start the Christmas holiday.

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  16. Nice RT Video, I love that guy Lionel, he does a guest spot on local radio up here the Dude is Spot On, funny I was talking to a local Pol last night regarding the same thing about the media hiding all the important chit and feeding the masses Guberment approved propaganda..... hehehhehee

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  17. Here's an interesting take on the Chipotle mess.....

    http://www.naturalnews.com/052405_Chipotle_ecoli_outbreak_corporate_sabotage_biotech_bioterrorism.html

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    Replies
    1. and this from Bloomberg....

      http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2015-chipotle-food-safety-crisis/

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    2. "Chipotle often derides fast-food chains and their factory farms, enlisting the likes of Willie Nelson to make plaintive music videos about crop chemicals and steroidal cattle"

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    3. Willie has a lotta munchies for CMG

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  18. Jay, I've had a good deal of success watching trends and playing them accordingly. I also never go for "jackpots", but small trades that add up over the year. It's amazing when you make anywhere from $500-2000 in a trade, seems like small potatoes, but if you have 20-30 of them in a given year, you're talking about some serious $$. For instance, 3 weeks ago, I bought some Smith & Wesson before earnings, pure speculation based on all the gun control talk and the company announced solid numbers and I made a cool $1700 profit for 2 days work, not bad.

    You are very smart by staying off gold and miners, the trend is down. And no, that's not what "they" want you think Jay, miners are garbage, have been for 4+ years, and there will be no "rotation" into miners. Kli is dead wrong on this. I'm not happy per se when he's wrong, I'm just astounded how keeps double and tripling down all the way to zero. It's a combination of sheer lunacy and being stubborn and not admitting getting on the wrong side of the trade. The amount of opportunity cost lost on miners and gold over the past 5 years compared to the performance of the stock market is immeasurable and cannot be recovered ever again. Only a total fool like Kli fails to see that.

    That's right Jay, along with other commodities, gold will be hit hard in 2016 and beyond and most of Kli's miners will go bankrupt as the price of gold falls below production costs, very simple. In the short term, next 2-3 weeks, I see gold heading to the 1020-1030 area, and if you want to make some quick $$, take a look at DGLD, the 3x inverse ETF. I bought some yesterday and today, will add more if there's any suckers rally in gold.

    One of the best plays of 2016 will be shorting gold and DGLD is my preference, but there are other options, please do your own DD. And remember, these are not buy and hold plays, quick trades of 1-2 weeks, sometimes less.

    Two more of my picks for 2016 are Expedia and Google. Now here, my time horizon is longer, 3-5 years, I believe both stocks will outperform the market next year, and I have core positions in both. I will look to add on any weakness, make some trend plays, but my core will stay.

    I'll have more picks after Christmas. Good luck Jay and Merry Christmas to you.

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    Replies
    1. You are a VERY savvy trader skippy....hehhehehe.....

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  19. Kli is making 30-70%? Wow, that's INCREDIBLE!! Even Madoff can't touch that, he only promised 20%!

    Hehehehehe..... Can you hook me up Tom, for old times' sake? I promise, I will pi$$ on you both if you're on fire, I take back what I said earlier.

    Hehehehehe......

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    1. No need for anger skippy....its X-mas and we're all a family here and without you, our world wouldn't be complete....without your help Jay wouldn't be rich and I wouldn't be able to smile....gl

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yXQViqx6GMY

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    2. Kli a correction: "without your help Jay would be....". Hehehe. You're welcome. Merry Christmas

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    3. merry xmas inlet and we all hope butt has a happy new year

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    4. Hope you have a happy butt Skippy. lol

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  20. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khQD0-o3_SQ

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    1. Well that was uplifting..... hehehehe

      Merry Christmas everyone ;)

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  21. And the circle is now complete, your X-mas present is here

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vgqG3ITMv1Q

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  22. Tom: Lionel is great. I used to listen to him during my college days in St. Petersburg, Fla. I had no idea he was still on the air.

    Budfox: Thanks for telling me about DGLD. I think I'll add a little to my portfolio. Now that the Fed is raising interest rates, gold prices should go down.

    In regards to Expedia and Google. Both of those are solid companies and I do think they'll do great in the 3-5 year time period.


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    1. Jay - DGLD is fire. Better understand how value can evaporate from the daily reset of these 2x and 3x ETNs to reflect net asset value. Lots of financial leverage to achieve 2x and 3x valuations. You like playing with fire?

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    2. Hi Inlet: I'm well aware of the "bleeding" involved with 2X and 3X ETF's But it's all good. I still play with them. This casino has me hooked.

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  23. KLI: BudFox has gold at $1020-$1030 in 2 to 3 weeks. It's currently at $1066 What's your opinion of the DGLD ETF?


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    Replies
    1. SNOT claims he makes short term trades... I think he ought to give us 2 or 3 real time buy/sell points of a trade in January so we can evaluate his ability to pick short term winners with no RETRO trading. Hehehehe

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  24. http://www.etf.com/DGLD be careful... Hehehehe

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  25. I'd really like to see a real time buy/sell from Budfox as well. Let us know long/short - call/put

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  26. Hehehehe Now they're bringing out the Soros.....

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-28/nervous-george-soros-lashes-out-donald-trump-he-wants-you-be-afraid

    Make Merika Great Again!

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    Replies
    1. I was already planning to vote Republican next year... But the Soros GOP bashing just put the icing on the cake.

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  27. KLI: Did the Fed really print 8 trillion in two weeks? I didn't read about this in the mainstream media or see it on CNBC.

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    Replies
    1. Yes between the last two weeks of September 2008.......They were bleeding out of every orifice of their bodies around the world.......Ben Bernanke and Timmy cried like girls to their Daddy

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  28. For the "Please believe our BullChit" file.......

    http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/state-department-claims-peace-syria-2015-win-217168

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  29. Jay, like any 2-3x ETF, I never hold them for more than a few days at most. In the case of DGLD, I'm making an exception and will hold it for up to two weeks because I believe gold will be down $30-40 from current levels during that time. If it stays sideways or makes a run towards $1100, then I close the position for a small loss and move on.

    I brought this to your attention because I think 2016 will be the year where the price movements in gold will present nice trading opportunities. But be quick to act so you can take profits or cut losses right away, that's the nature of the casino.

    Here are some more plays for you to think about for next year. On the long side, I have two video game companies, Electronic Arts and Activision. Both did well this past year, both have some excellent franchise titles, should benefit from the new trend of digital downloads/sales as well VR which is the next big computing paradigm.

    On the short side, I'm looking at Visa and MasterCard. These two have a very profitable, insulated business model, but 2016 could be the year that changes. Google, Apple, PayPal, Samsung and others are getting into the payment processing business, which is Visa and Mastercard's turf. Neither stock is cheap, and as more people start using their phones to pay for stuff and merchants sign up, those two could be in trouble.

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    Replies
    1. BTW stick with biotech.....they're your ticket!! hehehehehe

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  30. A lot better than you'll ever live to be.

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  31. Hmmmm Staying a few weeks in an Inverse ETF, good luck with that but it's your coin.... I'm also curious as to why you would short any processor of electronic payments, considering their desire to eliminate cash? Sure you're gonna have more players but there's also more transactions.....

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    1. hehehehehe.....yeah....they're the "ticket".....BWAAAAAAAAAAA

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    2. I would guess these "quick trades" will be very cyberprofitable..... I'm in ....no I'm out......hehehehe.....hey I just sold out for fast milll.....hehehhehe

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  32. Market going through the roof today!! God bless the Fed!!

    Has anyone else noticed that volume is about half of normal levels today? I think they are herding up the longs for a good ole fashioned corral slaughter.

    In other news, here are the video game companies BudFox advised going long on:

    Electronic Arts Inc. (EA) -NasdaqGS
    70.00 Up 0.81(1.18%) 3:22PM EST - Nasdaq Real Time Price

    and

    Activision Blizzard, Inc. (ATVI) -NasdaqGS
    39.74 Up 0.71(1.82%) 3:23PM EST - Nasdaq Real Time Price


    And here is Inlet's favorite ETF (I imagine he is buying today?):

    ProShares Short Russell2000 (RWM) -NYSEArca
    60.81 Down 0.63(1.03%) 3:26PM EST - Nasdaq Real Time Price







    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jay: Favorite? I don't play favorites - it is tradable. Sold position around 10:30 am today. So couple of minor trades since Dec 24. Limit order in to buy at $59.90. If I am watching and it gets close to my limit I will pull the trigger (but I may be out for my 4 mile walk) when market opens.

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  33. Here's my trade Butt.....not as good as yours but WTF its Cybertuesday.....take a look at the last 4 months on this pig....very nice volatility on a true quality miner but then what do I know....hehehehehe ....I coulda bot a TESLA!!!!! I like to hold these for a few days then buy them back and hole um sum MOARRRRRRR hehehhehee..

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RIC&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p87515445255&a=437996498&listNum=1

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  34. new post tonite.....Ocean's just too fochin great to waste on the ponzi today.....Happy new years gang

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  35. Hehehehe did ya share that RIC trade with Madoff? Almost a dollar swing twice in a short period of time.... Nah can't make any money trading miners.... Watta Putz ole Snot licker is hehehehe shorting Visa & Mastercard! Genius pure Genius......m

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    1. He's a major trader now.....from the buy and hold INTC to "TRADER"....I look at these paper games as close to toilet paper in the long run....if you get out of um before the door closes then moAR power to ya.....I'm in with money I never expect to see again.....but just in case they keep the lights on I'll play.....but word of caution. I sat in a kitchen a few weeks ago with three top bankers. One is with the biggest of the bigs (you can guess) the other two were satellite hedge managers. They were handling DIRECTLY the aftermath of one of the big funds that gatekeepered their clients. Here is the problem.....THEY DIDNT have a clue how it happened and what was going on with it and they were all scared. So if you think this thing can be "handled" by the boyz......gl....cuz I now know they are FOCHED

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