Sunday, August 30, 2015

NOW ITS FUN

But what happens when that roller coaster goes down and doesn't roll back up? When is CONfidence lost on an already skittish public? A lot of damage was done this week but there is still investor money in the market. Much of it is tied up in retirement accounts and the holders just don't want to take the pain...but they will and they will very quickly if they feel the door is closing. This week the Ponzi was over-run by selling panic on Monday. Will this continue to evolve into a full blown collapse? Who cares. You either get it by now or you will only understand when the house of cards falls. If you didn't have your light go off last week then you have no chance of it anything turning that circuit on. 


Your Fedbux at work


Hopefully you have plenty of popcorn and time to sit bad and enjoy what a bunch of Ponzi Pumping Pricks can do to a giant paper casino. They will blow the bubble. They will pop the bubble. They will buy all the assets from the bubble for pennies while the sheep wonder what happened and hang the wrong guys. It the most diabolical group of criminals the world could never even imagine existed. On the road again until the next weekend but will check in each day.....gl













Tuesday, August 25, 2015

DEAR JANET PLEASE HELP

I know this will not find your eyes but I thought I would make an attempt. I have been back in the stock market after watching CNBC and many on the financial news channels tell me the Fed will print money and keep the market up. I'm now very nervous and don't believe some of these pundits like Steve Liesman that has told me over and over that we are in an economic recovery because the brilliant economists at the Fed have engineered our economy into the great recovery. I've heard things now like a "jobless recovery", but I have THREE jobs so I just don't believe this recovery is jobless. I don't understand why people are saying they're having problem making ends meet with this economic recovery. I for one have saved a ton of money by just continuing to live with my mom and dad. They appreciate having me in the house, but its starting to interfere with my marriage prospects, but I can postpone that since I'm only 34.

Here's where I feel let down right now. I watch CNBC and I am a free market capitalist like they are. So I have to ask you WHY you are letting the market fall like this? I know you have the power to print more money and provide the fuel necessary for this stock market to reach even higher highs than before. There is no reason for you to raise interest rates and not print more dollars. I was at my Starbucks job yesterday and overheard a rich guy that comes in there tell his table there is no reason to have a correction. My generation and for that matter all generations need your help. Please consider this request. 

Yours truly  Andy Rand

Dear Andy

Read this please, your pal Janet.

Primary Downward Trend (Bear Market)

The Distribution PhaseThe first phase in a bear market is known as the distribution phase, the period in which informed buyers sell (distribute) their positions. This is the opposite of the accumulation phase during a bull market in that the informed buyers are now selling into an overbought market instead of buying in an oversold market.

In this phase, overall sentiment continues to be optimistic, with expectations of higher market levels. It is also the phase in which there is continued buying by the last of the investors in the market, especially those who missed the big move but are hoping for a similar one in the near future.

As was the case in the accumulation phase, the distribution phase can be difficult to spot in its early stages. The reason for this is that it may be disguised as a secondary downward trend within the primary upward trend.

From a technical standpoint, the distribution phase is represented by a topping of the market where the price movement starts to flatten as selling pressure increases . The mid to latter stages of the distribution phase will see prices start to fall as more and more investors, anticipating weakness, exit their positions.

A new downward trend will be confirmed when the previous trend fails to make another consecutive higher high and low.





Public Participation Phase
This phase is similar to the public participation phase found in a primary upward trend in that it lasts the longest and will represent the largest part of the move - in this case downward. 

During this phase it is clear that the business conditions in the market are getting worse and the sentiment is becoming more negative as time goes on. The market continues to discount the worsening conditions as selling increases and buying dries up.

This is also the point at which most trend followers and technical traders start to dump their positions and take short positions as the new downward trend has confirmed itself.

The Panic PhaseThe last phase of the primary downward market tends to be filled with market panic and can lead to very large sell-offs in a very short period of time. In the panic phase, the market is wrought up with negative sentiment, including weak outlooks on companies, the economy and the overall market. 

During this phase you will see many investors selling off their stakes in panic. Usually these participants are the ones that just entered the market during the excess phase of the previous run-up in share price.

But just when things start to look their worst is when the accumulation phase of a primary upward trend will begin and the cycle repeats itself.


Read more: Dow Theory: The Three Phases Of Primary Trends | Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/university/dowtheory/dowtheory3.asp#ixzz3jrY1DbrH 
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Saturday, August 22, 2015

ITS ON LIKE DONKEY KONG?

It certainly felt like it on Friday, and perhaps we see further market weakness Monday, but very soon they are going to squeeze some shorts and that is close. On the other hand, I think Greg Mannarino's market top call two months ago is solid, and trying to time the short squeeze with a quick trade could be hazardous if you have a time decay/leverage play in this market. They are going after the last meat on the paper play bone. Here's the rub for the bulls, if the damage done to the leveraged players Friday can't be staunched on Monday then a feedback loop of selling will spiral quickly to Hell. My guess and my hope is they are in some CONtrol of this mess of a market and get their fingers in the dyke quickly and keep this from the day of reckoning for a few more months.

I think the "global recovery" meme is finished. China and much of the industrial world have shown declining metrics for months and are now accelerating to the downside.  Those stats can be massaged (and they have been) but the underlying economic impact can't be ignored. Therein lies the real problem. China had to devalue and try to de-peg from the dollar before it implodes. Now the U.S. will need to respond to the currency war and "suddenly" we get the bubble puncture here. With air coming out, fear will follow. Fear will be needed for any drastic measures to be taken by the Fed "toolbox" which isn't too hard to figure out. They're stuck. They may try to juice the market into the "expected" September rate hike and claim victory with a millimeter rate hike, but I don't think that scenario is high on the list with China's checkmate Yuan devaluation. 

If fear is their trade now then its going to be extreme volatility during the next couple of months. It may stabilize next week but don't let that fool you. The technical damage to scam stocks like Green Mountain Coffee and many other "market leaders" is massive. Getting out of paper trades is going to become increasingly clear as the right decision but with each short squeeze now you will hear "its all clear" ......."the correction is over"......etc. Don't let them put you into a coma with their message. The plug is getting pulled. This is a leveraged mountain of debt on a planet of debt and this entire Ponzi is being pricked.

If they rally early Monday and it fades hard, then move quickly to your final preps. In my case I'm just eating popcorn. Nuttin' like watchin' the CNBS pricks crying and wringing their hands and trying  to explain to the sheep why the market is crashing as though no one could see it coming. Hell.....even Greenspan and Yellin have warned you.







Friday, August 14, 2015

WHAT IS IT REALLY ALL ABOUT?

C'mon......you know, dontcha? You can't be that dumb. Either you've had your head in the sand voluntarily or your cranial cavity is empty. They laugh at us. They know they crossed the Rubicon so long ago there is no way to get back to ground zero in this Ponzi to da Moon. We crossed into Marshall law years ago and most people think their homeland is being secured from terrorist. You believe if that CONspiracy were true, then Woodward and Bernstein would bring it to our National attention. 

Maybe you think the recovery is so strong that FINALLY we can now raise rates 25 bips. Oh MY G-D....listen to yourself. A WHOLE 25 bips!!! They've been talking for months and months about a QUARTER. A QUARTER OF A PERCENT!!  We are talking about an economy after one of the "GREATEST BULL MARKETS EVER"!! Are you that brainwashed that you really believe a strong economy is threatened by a mere  25 bips...... LOL. OR...maybe you believe the oil price collapse due to demand collapse is NOTHING but a "speed bump to heaven"!!!  Oh and maybe you really do believe this is an indefinite nirvana. Better yet you believe that the recent collapse in China is now CONtained. You believe that suspending all semblance of an equity stock market is a "real market" in the largest economy in the world.  You believe this is now "ring fenced". You believe that China's collapsing growth and subsequent impact on commodities, bonds, and currencies will be negligible. I guess you think that banning "selling stocks" and imprisoning short sellers is just another "speed bump". You see......IT IS CONTAINED!!

Hey I love a joke as much as the next guy, but this is not a joke, even though its straight out of the "theater of the absurd". Like Buttfox says (and this next buttfox diatribe I do agree with).... You don't wanna be cheerleading this collapse.  As much as I despise the duplicity and damage done to savers and our country's future, I dread the "day of reckoning" that a Ponzi economic bubble portends. I don't wanna pay the piper. Someone asked me today what that bursting will be like. I don't have a clue was my answer and my hope is we just get through to the other side and can have some order to life restored. The problem I have, is the damage we've done to the morality and rule of law. History shows these type of events require a high degree of pain before their ultimate conclusion. So pretend and extend.....it works everytime.....until it doesn't. See ya down the road.









Saturday, August 8, 2015

WHAT'S BOILING IN THAT POT?

Maybe you don't see it, but you feel it. You can't describe it in detail, but you know its tangible because you can touch it. Your friends feel it, but can't grasp exactly what they feel but they feel uneasy. Some are able to say they can't find a good job. Some say they can't get a raise or they can't get the extra hours they used to. They look for ways to decrease their spending. They cut back on their cable bills or their internet bills. They stay with their parents well into their late 20's. They postpone marriage. They postpone children if they are already married. They no longer contemplate private schools. They cut back on food expenditures. They have EBT cards. They file for disability. They work three jobs to make enough money for rent and food with terrible health care insurance. They feel something is wrong. Maybe its just them, but then why did they graduate with a degree and 90 thousand in debt, but they work at Starbucks part time. Something is wrong. 

Do they go to graduate school? Do they get into another 90 thousand in debt and still not have a job? Something is wrong, but there was a bailout. Who was bailed out? Why are the top 1% expanding the wealth gap since 2008 and you're working at Starbucks to try and obtain health insurance? Who was bailed out?

You're told its just you but if you have a small business its getting harder to see how to compete against the big box stores that don't even need to make a profit. Amazon can go quarter after quarter with massive losses but cheap money keeps them chewing away at your business. You can't operate even one quarter losing money. Something is wrong. How can you call that investing. What is it called? 

94 million people of working age are no longer employed. The highest since the 70s. What isn't obvious are the EBT cards. Medicaid. Disability recipients. Something is wrong.

Go ahead and protest. Look what happened to Occupy. Crushed! What is going to happen if the grand illusion of recovery begins to unravel. Will we have peaceful protests that are crushed again? Will people just willingly give up all hope and submit? Sumthin' is wrong with the whole game. Who is going to protect the corporate theft when this goes bad? Will the oppression proceed or will the troops desist?













Sunday, August 2, 2015

THE WEDGE

I don't wanna bore you with happy talk because most of you are as worn out as I am by the 4 year wedge formed in this metal beatdown and the subsequent breakdown this week that appears to be forming. Perhaps this will turn out to be a relatively short breakdown in the wedge to pump out the final remaining metals bulls. It works. That's why these formations exist. They crush the bulls. It reflects investor psychology even though a much greater force may be pulling the strings, the formations do work. For those that understand these manipulations it provides a tremendous opportunity. They just smile and buy physical. Legends like Richard Russell understand how the game is played and just keep buying physical gold and silver. They know the conclusion of this super cycle will be epic and the charlatans that control the paper money markets will pull the switch eventually on the trapdoor on the ponzi. 






been 16 such warnings over the last 12 months!
July 2014 – BIS  –BIS Issues Strong Warning on “Asset Bubbles”
July 2014 – IMF –Bloomberg: IMF Warns of Potential Risks to Global Growth
October 2014 – BIS –“No One Could Foresee this Coming”
October 2014 IMF Direct Blog — What Could Make $3.8 Trillion in global bonds go up in smoke?
October 2014 IMF Report –“Heat Wave”-Rising financial risk in the U.S.
********  December 2014 – BIS –BIS Issues a new warning on markets
December 2014 – BIS —BIS Warnings on the U.S. Dollar
February 2015 – IMF – Shadow Banking — Another Warning from the IMF – This Time on “Shadow Banking”
March 2015 – Former IMF Peter Doyle – Don’t expect any warning on new crisis -Former IMF Peter Doyle: Don’t Expect any Early Warning from the IMF –
*******April 2015 IMF – Liquidity Shock –IMF Tells Regulators to Brace for Liquidity Shock
May 2015 BIS – Need New “Rules of the Game” –BIS: Time to Think about New Global Rules of the Game?
June 2015 BIS Credit Risk Report –BIS: New Credit Risk Management Report
June 2015 IMF (Jose Vinals)  –IMF’s Vinals Says Central Banks May Have to be Market Makers
*******BIS June 2015 (UK Telegrahph, no blog article) —The world is defenceless against the next financial crisis, warns BIS


July 2015 – IMF – Warns US the System is Still Vulnerable (no blog article) —IMF warns U.S.: Your financial system is (still) vulnerable

July 2015 – IMF – Warns Pension Funds Could Pose Systemic Risk (no blog article) –IMF warns pension funds could pose systemic risks to the US

Still traveling and will be following the entertainment closely with those of you that still haven't been lulled to sleep. gl