Monday, December 26, 2016

GOLD BUG ARMY HAS SURRENDERED

After a brave charge early this year, the gold charge has turned into a rout. The surrender of the mining shares over the past couple of months marks the end of a year of hope for the much maligned gold bug soldiers. With the grinding down of the MACD and declining volumes come the gloom associated with losing. Most of the troops wonder whatever happened to the leaders of the battle like Rickards, Greyerz, Holter, and others. They were so certain that victory was at hand.......and now defeat.

Funny how you analyze this trade and funny how well the psychology of price destroys your resolve. Everyone is euphoric as miners after a 4 year bear achieve 500% moves off a ridiculous bottom, but then fall into abject depression when a normal correction occurs knocking down the price 50%. What in the hell did you think the boyz were gonna do? Spoon feed you the trade of a lifetime. I'll bet you thought they were just gonna let you jump on lollipop boat to paradise and feed you grapes and powder your butt while they made you richer each day. Good grief!! Wake up!! Some of these moves were insane. 10 and 20X moves in some of these left for dead miners. The boyz don't make money just holding these stinking pigs. They trade them and when they trade they are going to rip your heart out both ways. UP and DOWN. How many of you were heavily loaded in miners back last December? Probably not many of the "believers were still left. How many of you traded out of your positions within the first two months? How many of you finally jumped into the gravy train midway through the year after the first pullbacks?


ALERT: Major End Of The Year Update On The Gold Market

WE WON!!  BEST SECTOR IN SnP up 56%YTD
              GREAT CALL SKIPPY

That's how this war works........STRATEGY. You pick the wrong strategy and they'll find a way to run over you with a Panzer Division of traders. Don't over trade these guys. The play in gold and silver is just beginning. There will be so much money printing and spending now that the Trump regime is in charge that no amount of jawboning about CONtrolling money supply will stop the hoard of inflation that's coming down the pipe. The storm that's coming will make the Blitzkrieg look like a walk in the park. Big boyz don't cry they just put their big boy panties on and step into the war. 













Wednesday, December 21, 2016

ITS AWFULLY QUIET IN TOWN

They say that when there is blood in the streets you need to buy. Today there is not even blood left. Most of the most bullish blogs are quiet. When the best in the business like Holter, Rickards etc. are asked when the pain will end, they only shrug and appropriately reply they don't know. There's no talk on the MSM any longer recommending "buying" mining stawks. 

Dave Kranzler:  Although it seems like the precious metals sector has experienced another down year, the HUI index is still up 48.6% from its 12/31/15 close and it’s up 65% from its low on January 19th this year…

Its hard to find many vids to even download now with sentiment completely tanked. Many of the newbie longs jumped on in the latter stages of this bull run in the miners and are now underwater big time. Many of the newbies don't even know why they own gold. Its still a crowded trade and can get even worse. Technicals still aren't confirming a bottom is in for the miners. Paper gold is still being dumped. I don't know why anyone would want to trade in this sector? .............bottom line.......I like it. It smells really bad. You know what else smells bad. They're supposed to smell. That's when the boyz like to buy.



You loved First Magestic at 19 a  couple of months ago but you won't touch it at 7. RIC was a superstar at 11 but no way at 5. No one is immune to the pain so don't feel bad. Only a masochist wants to get beaten down this badly. Its a sector that isn't for the gasbags that want to buy Apple for a "big score".......while Apple executes its share buyback scam on the public. Or maybe you wanna listen to the TESLA gasbags telling you what a great company it is while it bleeds out billions each year. And don't even get me started on JAMAZON. When they get through with those shares, the holders won't be able to find enough enemas to pull um out of their rectums. So maybe you can do like I do and just smile at how CONtrived this game is and enjoy life while they play their shake and bake on the newbies. gl 







Sunday, December 18, 2016

AND THEY CALLED US DOOMERS

Sigh..... After getting our gambling asses handed to us the past few months and especially last weeks final smackdown, one cannot be human and not ask themselves the obvious question....... "why am I even in this casino?" 

What an absolutely wretched week of dollar strengthening and Precious metals beatdown......expecially the mining shares. I talked about this assault on the psychology of the holders of these shares for the past 7 years. Much of that 7 years was in a similar beatdown until the past year. 




For the first few months of 2016, we were afraid to talk lest we bring the veil of death over our maligned trade, but by March it was clear we had begun a serious bull move in mining shares. They continued to move most of the mining shares up through July while gold began to slowly drift down. Commercials that were long last December slowly began to grow more short as the smart money positioned themselves for the attack on the trade and the unwinding of the dumb money that jumped on late in the year for their mo mo fortune. Technicals began to repair on the miners and metals with a sideways to downward bias chop, but the weekly charts showed plenty of room to go to oversold and they DID. Once the bottom pickers moved in then the real slaughter warmed up in October November and finally December. 

Sentiment has been crushed. A once glorious rise from the ashes this year has been converted into a high density killing field with no discernible end in sight. Just the kind of landscape a predator likes and I think they love what they see now.  Optimism in this trade can get you killed. Pessimism can make you money. enjoy









Sunday, December 11, 2016

GOLD FOLLOWERS ARE ROADKILL NOW

You're finished punk! You're ROADKILL! At least that's the meme you're supposed to believe and I bet that even some of the hardened gold bugs are withering under the relentless beatdown of precious metal prices over the past four months. That's right FOUR MONTHS. A once promising rally in gold and the precious metal's stock shares is now in shambles for the beleaguered believers in Bali. It seems like yesterday when the "believers" had returned to post here in the comments and renew their old acquaintances as the price of mining shares appreciated 4, 5, even 20 times off their lows in just a matter of a few months in a move that caught even the most ardent gold bug flat footed. So what changed?




Donald J Trump was elected President and the greatest rate increase in history is about to unfold. Amazing how these epic events can influence the fundamentals in the yellow metal. I know its a waste of time to bring up the fact that we still have Trillions and Trillions and Trillions of debt that is mathematically going to destroy ANY possible return to interest rate normalization.....but I digress.  

What I really wanted to touch on today is HOW this will play out in a simple way that even I can understand. This is all about extend and pretend. There is no "FIX" in this game. It is all about wealth EXTRACTION during the extend and pretend phase of this game. So how can you tell where we are going. WATCH your grocery shelves. WATCH your prices on everything you use. Lumber, food, gasoline, education, medical care and medicine........YOU get the picture. In the interim if they can keep these prices somewhat CONtrolled they can extend and pretend with massive money printing with each "crisis" that rears its head. The increase in prices/wages will mean the VELOCITY OF MONEY is increasing and the CONfidence in holding that fiat in your possession is rapidly diminishing. WHEN that begins they will not be able to stop it. It will RAPIDLY spread through all markets, engulfing the world in a panic. The much vaunted "bond vigilantes" will then have their day, but the sucking sound from hell will even overwhelm them as their fiat bond base implodes. 

Egon von Greyerz:  “Flation” is guaranteed in the next few years. We will see inflation, stagflation, hyper-inflation and deflation. Many of these flations will happen simultaneously. Currently we have major monetary inflation combined with asset inflation. Credit growth and money printing have in recent years benefitted the ailing banking system but have not yet reached consumer prices and therefore there is no ordinary price inflation. In 2017, velocity of money is likely to increase, leading to stagflation, which is higher prices without growth. But as the problems in the financial system deteriorate, hyperinflation in most major economies is virtually a certainty. The build-up of debt and derivatives in the last quarter century guarantees that desperate governments will print unlimited amounts of money in a frantic attempt to save the financial system…

In summary..... we are not there. As long as they don't have runaway INFLATION then DEFLATION can be "managed" by money printing......ie the Dollar/Euro/Yen. Derivatives can still be managed by the CBs and the World can proclaim its "all good". Again its NOT deflation that will limit this game.....it is INFLATION and until that starts to get onerous, they will print.

For me right now it is simple. I think in the near term...(next few weeks) they will take some air out of the Dow and bring gold up as they reverse their trades and the smart money that's been taking down the miner shares and gold will start another intermediate up move in the miners. Then again.......maybe they won't.......gl









Sunday, December 4, 2016

ITS OVER FOR THE GOLD TRADERS

I should never have bought those miner stocks
Just a few months ago sentiment was high with the Fast Money traders all bullish on owning the precious metals and their mining shares. Traders were up astounding percentages from their remarkable lows at the beginning of this year. It seemed like there was no end to the inexorable rise of the most hated trade in market history.  Suddenly there was a shine to the gold trade again with the likes of Peter Shifty and Bill Fleckenoodle now allowed back on air to tout the greatest trade of the year. 





What happened? What went wrong? How could something so certain go so wrong? After all the studying you did to justify the fundamentals of investing in this sector only to have it shoved right back down your throat. You waited to invest in more shares after a 20% correction from their highs and they were hammered down another 30%. You were hammered senseless for being conservative. 




So what is your lesson? Don't fight the Fed. Surely you know by now they don't want the price of gold flashing red to their money printing scheme.  What else have you learned? How about we have a growing, improving economy now. We are adding jobs every month now. We have more part-time bartenders and waitresses than at anytime in our history. There is that slight problem with a 40 year high of working age Mericans (95M) that are no longer employed. Please ignore that. Please ignore also that wages are stagnant (but the price of chicken and hamburger are up 20 and 60% this year alone). By the way how is your health care premiums? Can you repeat after me ....."all is good"....


If Everything is so Bullish, Why Are Bank Insiders Dumping Their Shares at Record Pace?


Again, HOW in the hell can you be so wrong on your trade? Just think. If you had invested in the SnP in Jan. instead of the Miners then you would be up 12% instead of 100-300% like many miners discussed here are right now from the lows in Jan. 

Oh wait......I get it .....You bought in AFTER they went up double and triple and now ya want your money back. LOL. You can't Budfox this trade. You can't whine you lost. You are in the most hated sector of the stock market and you thought they were gonna make this easy for you???? You thought the boyz weren't gonna take some profit AND short you to hell for a few months while they stole your shares from you when you puked them up the last few weeks. It was gonna be easy wasn't it? Like takin' candy from a baby. Sure it was..........gl