Great Depression 2 Daily Market News by kliguy38

BACK TO ANALYSIS

2012-01-29T16:25:00.001-06:00

With a little time to stop and look back at some charts this weekend and see where we've been some interesting points emerged. As many of you already know the reason that technical analysis is used is to try and predict the future movement of markets based on past parameters principally price and volume. We have entered a very dangerous market phase now with liquidity being a primary time bomb for all participants but I still believe that time honored aspects of T/A have a role.

What do these price movements represent? Are they a reflection of market mood? Do they reflect fundamentals? Let's look at fundamentals for just a moment. In early 2008 silver for instance was trading at $20/oz and many of the silver miners were trading 2-3 times their current levels with silver at $33/oz. So much for fundamentals. Technical analysis holds that prices already reflect all such trends before investors are aware of them. Therefore using technical analysis should guarantee the investor superior returns over the fundamental market participants. Somehow that does not happen quite so easily. WHY NOT? Let's just employ a simple stock trading acronym KISS. This stands for Keep It Simple Stupid. In this case one needs to accept the simple principle that psychology is used to drive market prices......emotions primarily fear and greed are used as the battering rams on the sheep. Don't feel badly if you are a sheep. Most participants are. Its very hard not to be. These methods are time proven to be very effective. To fully understand just how controlled markets have been one only needs to do a review using key words of history of manipulated stock markets. Yes that's right....its a rigged casino. So what does that mean for us as sheep. One thing that we need to recognize is why a long term major participant like Jim Rogers calmly sits and smiles when asked about his investment strategy and readily admits that he is a terrible market timer. More correctly he is saying he doesn't care what the market does in the short term ....weeks and months.....He is more interested in longer term cycles and how they will affect his investing. This is still a form of technical analysis. Rogers knows very well that the shorter term market movements are designed to separate the most money from the most participants possible.

This is why I try not to give a definite or definitive prediction on short term market moves....only probabilities of direction based upon the evidence available. The longer term cycles and longer term charts are your most reliable tools and when coupled with multiple fundamental factors provide a degree of confidence for your trades. Market psychology (Fear and Greed) will continue to be used on you even if you understand this. So when you are told to separate your emotion, that is what is being referred to. That is very hard to do when you see your account down 60%. Just ask Jim Rogers back in 2008 during the crushing of commodities and precious metals how it felt. His response to that question in late 2008 was once again a smile and simple response that he was buying more at these cheap prices and they were still in a secular bull cycle. Today we still have the same fundamentals present which is more printed fiat must be generated to levitate the market.

Rogers knows very well as an insider what many of us have discovered over the years and that is the markets have always been rigged....its just that you didn't realize it before. Your job as an investor is to understand what the intention of that power is. For instance, where are we right now? What's the best guess? For one listen to what Ben Bernanke is telling you. He is telling you several things. The economy is terrible. How do you know that ...well in fedspeak he is telling you that for the foreseeable future things are so weak that he is guaranteeing interest rates to be locked in at virtually zero into late 2014. That absolutely fits with what we have talked about here for over three years now along the timeline of the Kondratieff economic cycle. He is telling you that we are entering the final deflationary phase. This means that he will be forced to print incredible amounts of fiat to keep us out of collapse this year. The fed also is trying to prop up their western governments with the printed money. At least through this U.S. election cycle. Watch the price of essentials food and energy and their effects on the stability of the governments. As this reaches maximum pain more nations will band together with currency swaps to avoid the dollar as the reserve currency and its deleterious effects on their economy and developing nation's economies. Then and only then will Ben be forced to pull his foot off the printer.

Meanwhile where are we in the game of price movements in the miners and precious metals? We may very well have hit a bottom. I am not all in just in case they decide to rip it down further, but I am hopeful we have seen a very tradeable bottom. We have had an 8 month correction off the high in silver. This is no accident. Same 8 months as in 2008....and occurring within a secular bulll market already at ten years. The one caveat here and not to be overlooked is gold had only a 5 month correction. That should give you pause....but we are getting closer if it is not the end of the beatdown. This is why I try and hold a core just as Roger's basically does. I'm sure he trims positions as I do when things get frothy and adds as oversold conditions develop. He is not going to tip his hand other than to state the obvious. The obvious is nature. Nature demands a restoration of confidence and that requires a washout of the malinvestment. Gold and silver are money...they have been for thousands of years. gl all

this should bear watching with those volume moves

LAUNCH CONTROL T-MINUS 10

2012-01-27T08:01:00.002-06:00

Everything going according to schedule. Multi-month takedown of gold and silver ...CHECK. Intermediate gold channel pierced shaking out the weak longs.....CHECK. Main stream media news stories daily proclaiming gold as a risk asset to the point of absurdity....with the obvious intent of telling a lie to the public often enough they will eventually believe it......CHECK. Use your two two principle market drivers to reap your profits ....FEAR AND GREED.......Greed as you drive the price of gold over into overbought levels breaking its weekly intermediate channel to the upside and dragging in the weak longs as you distribute our shares......and then Fear to shake loose the shares into your hands from the weak longs......just another day for the masters of the market that will always dominate the sheep's lives. Obviously this game has been going on longer than you or I have been alive and will continue, but you have to admire the efficiency of it.

NEXT........here's the game plan. IF and I emphasize IF we are now in a longer term uptrend for PMs then you need to be paying attention to the charts to see if higher highs and higher lows begin to form and adding to positions on pullbacks of your favorite miners. This will be a treacherous year to trade and playing in this casino will be punished if you guess wrong. On the other hand if you are wrong then remember..... AM I HOLDING A STOCK OR COMMOD THAT ONE DAY WILL BE WORTH MUCH MORE? If you cannot say that in this market then think twice before making those trades. I believe we just completed an important accumulation phase for PM miners and that we are going to have an excellent year. Just remember though......YOU ARE PLAYING CRAPS ON THE DECK OF THE TITANIC AS THE LIFE BOATS ARE LOADING.

from Jim Willie....."My sources inform that in November an important team was assembled, and funded to the hilt, with a mission to trample the gold cartel, to cause a failure in their attempts to deploy naked shorting in price suppression, to force them to cover their huge short positions in retreat, to oblige outsized drainage of the COMEX, to even induce them into draining the GLD exchange traded fund of its inventory from the backdoor."

need a little pullback but buy on shortterm weakness

please note gaps needing filled

RELEASE THE KRAKEN!

2012-01-25T17:29:00.003-06:00

Today's FOMC statement unleashes the dogs of hell upon the dreaded enemy of all bankers.....deflation. Anyone that believed the world's economies are recovering surely has figured it out now. Just as in 2007 when Ben was asked directly regarding housing and the economy (stating he saw no problems on the horizon), today was another exclamation of just how serious the problem is about to become (not that it is good now). When the Money Printer in Chief tells you that interest rates will be held to zero until late 2014 extending his previous time line by a full year.....then you better wake up and smell the coffee. Hell is coming and it is happening right now. Ben declared war on deflation but more importantly he is telling you Europe is about to explode. Greece will default by 75% soon......This still will not be enough for their solvency.....that is just how bad the situation is. What the banker's realize is the moral hazard they have created with the hundreds of trillions of derivatives is a ticking time bomb of unpredictability in an unwind of a default in not only Greece but Italy or Spain etc debt. They are scared to death and Ben just told you. IT IS THAT BAD!

The problems with moral hazard is the unpredictability of their repercussions. However today's statement has some moral hazards that are VERY predictable. First of all precious metals have now been given a green light to invest in now. It doesn't mean they are going straight to the promiseland but for the long term holders of a core it means that you can add on weakness now. It is now possible to look forward to new highs this year in PMs and perhaps in the miners. In fact holding onto fiat now has been declared null and void by Ben. He was even quizzed at his own press conference today regarding the impact that his ZIRP policy would have on savers and with only some stuttering and hesitation he stated the impact would be minimal.........SERIOUSLY! ....Do you really expect anyone with half a brain to swallow that Ben? Imagine trying to make it on CDs of 200K total with 1% return if you are 75 years old living on only SS and your savings. He knows this and that is just how bad things are in the global banking situation. We are unraveling and you and I are playing craps on the deck of the Titanic while they are lowering the lifeboats. I'm still hoping my retirement accounts make it through but I give it less than 50-50....If my timeline is right I "should" make it through this summer. It's a gamble.

I hope most of you have made some arrangements if things get tough. Food and water are simple enough. I won't advocate guns unless you are very familiar with them. My better advice is to concentrate on relationships with family and friends. These unions are more important for your benefit and theirs. Enjoy all of this internet information but realize your time is finite on this mother earth...so enjoy it and help others.

I'll publish charts tonight. And don't forget google chrome as your browser if you are having trouble reading the comments or commenting......and please comment.

watch for a couple days of consolidation on many of these then lets see what happens

BUNKER TIME

2012-01-24T01:38:00.001-06:00

Is it time for the bunker? I guess it may be time to think about it but don't forget we are in the final year of pretend so let's play the casino game a little longer. We can at least pretend if they are going to extend the game. Maybe you will get lucky and win a few scraps for your family. Remember fiat is all about make believe. Its based on the ultimate CONfidence game. I spoke last night with an old aquaintance of mine last night that I had not talked to for at least a year or more. He was eager to solicit my opinion on the coming storm. He is a Cardiovascular surgeon and I always handle the general public with kid gloves when answering the more pointed questions but he was eager to here my opinion and immediately began to inject his own ideas and liinks that he had been reading. It was shocking to hear he was reading virtually all the same links most of us have been turned onto.....Alex Jones...Martin Armstrong....Kyle Bass ...etc... I wasn't able to stay on the phone long with him and curtailed our visit but left with a sense of dismay. If he had been that tuned in then what is happening out there with the general public now?

Could it be they are getting it? Maybe....but don't hold your breath. Islands of hope will spring eternal but reality will sober you quickly. Just look at the Republican primary if you have any doubt. People are actually bothering to vote for one of these clowns.... Seriously?....Like they are going to be better than the current puppet. You mean they can't see that the entire charade is to give you the illusion of "choice. Which door do your choose? One....two....or three... Don't bother the same person is behind all of them. We give you all the MSM news outlets....but they all give the same choice....just wrapping it with a different bow.

Let's concentrate on the game right now and its accumulate the miners on weakness. If you are really smart you'll even stay out of that game and just buy physical gold and silver. Keep close to the game and don't get bunker mentality......at least not yet. Let them maneuver the middle east and eurozone all they wish......just remember they are constantly printing and QE has NEVER stopped. gl
FOR THOSE HAVING TROUBLE COMMENTING.... DOWN LOAD GOOGLE CHROME AS YOUR BROWSER

also needs to get moving above green resistance here hmmm

this is looking even worse than last week!

many miners are sitting just below intermed resistance

if this holds on support here then i am impressed but if it breaks

WEEKEND MUSE

2012-01-21T15:42:00.000-06:00

Well here we are... almost a month into the new year. This is the last year of the "extend and pretend" period of the Grand Supercycle. As discussed previously these cycles contain allowance for politics and the Fed. If you haven't seen how closely intertwined this scheme is with these entities then you need to exit the paper market now and tell your wife you will not be gambling in the Great Casino again. Based on cycle theory this year has but one option to remain in a trading range without a collapse.....and that is monetization of debt. Not just any little ammount of monetization but an incredible ammount of printing is necessary. Of course this monetization is being disguised in various forms as we have seen....not just the announced "QE" that everyone is fixed on. We have had CONSTANT monetization since QE2. If we had not had worldwide monetization we would have collapsed in a complete liquidity crash. Everything you see today worldwide is being managed by the central bankers. Politicians are all technocrats for the Central Bankers...nothing else. Then there is Russia and China, waiting in the wings while the developed world struggles to find a way out of its current debt predicament. Make no mistake they are not passive as our MSM news experts would have you believe. They are biding their time and waiting for the debt bomb to explode. It would be bad enough if the debt bomb were the only bombs we had to worry about but of course this entire ponzi has used the global military industrial complex as a cash kitty to exploit the developing nation's resources and prop up their own international corporations. This is where the geo-political war games enter. It has been a multi-century game that has essentially maintained the same playbook. Clean out the treasury of said "designated" empire and end the supercycle AND said "designated" empire. Move on to the next supercycle chest board. Is this the current plan? I see no reason to expect otherwise. Great Britain was the last world empire and we are the current world empire in line for the guillotine by global bankers. Just one problem with the old playbook....nuclear weapons. Its the fly in the ointment. With just a few of these weapons a third rate military power becomes incredibly dangerous to the bullies on the block. It takes countries like North Korea and Pakistan and make them extremely dangerous if they get plugged into a conflict equation. It also makes them virtually IMMUNE from an invasion from another country....ie. the USA. Note the almost complete silence on North Korea from the war mongering neocons once they obtained nuclear weapons. I recall at least two test blasts from the North Koreans several years ago......These blasts were phoo-phooed by our monitors as very low level explosions an likely not really a bomb. I wondered if this was disinformation.....and I was correct. After those test blasts we have completely been silenced on provoking North Korea. Could you imagine a nuclear bomb launch on Japan or South Korea. There is no way we will provoke that unstable government now. Iran is an entirely different problem. It already had protection from Russia and China. For all of our bluster a conflict with Iran would be disastrous on so many levels so I don't see it happening. If it does then you can be assured this blog will be off the air...and survival mode will be all we care about.Now back to the business at hand. We cannot control this dangerous world but we at least have an idea what is in store for the global bankers and they must maintain liquidity or it is lights out...IMMEDIATELY. Right now the is NO CONfidence in the system currently in place so a resolution of the essential issues of unemployment and GDP is not even on the table. It will be monetization (printing) until the prices of essentials forces price collapse and overall deflation (coming next year) take over. If you choose not to participate no one can blame you and I hope you have a way to sustain yourself through the coming turmoil. gl....oh...btw miners will be fine this year.....I just don't know when.....hehehehe...but I do like what I see so far.I highly encourage you to go the 13.20 mark on the Keiser report and listen to the interview with Pollack...

Just a word on GBG...its been a beaten down Junior but its for real... Burnstone mine has 6.36 million Proven and Probable and 12.1 million Measured & Indicated resources. Mining costs are estimated at $450 per ounce. That is very cheap.In addition, GBG is developing the Hollister mine, part of the Carlin Trend, in Nevada. Hollister has 0.9 million Proven and Probable and 1.4 million Measured and Indicated resources at a mining cost of $527 per ounce. Hollister neighbors properties owned by Newmont and Barrick. The Hollister property also includes the Esmeralda Mill, which will improve recovery rates. Hollister additionally has an estimated 4.9 million P&P and 11.6 million M&I silver resources. DONT blow off the silver.

GOLDEN LAUNCH

2012-01-20T01:40:00.000-06:00

Maybe we get the big move in the very near future......maybe not. But everyday that goes by it gets a little closer to a breakout. All of the doom just a few short weeks ago when gold was trying to break 1500......and crash to depression depths has faded into the sunset......maybe. One thing is certain ...the dip in gold and silver is being bought heavy by those accumulating the physical metal. A record number of Silver bullion coins were bought this month. Sprott just closed his purchase of an enormous ammount of physical silver. Go ahead....wait to buy physical metal....you may be right....I will not argue that prices could not take a dip lower. After all the PTB can manipulate the price with impunity. The problem with that is with the suppressed prices as they are the moral hazard that was feared by the PTB IS happening...and that is the cheap prices are not suppressing the physical buyers but INCREASING the buying. The hazard of clearing out the massive short positions in both metals has resulted in a surge in physical accumulation and that is not good for the PTB. The headline price of gold has always been suppressed to keep the almighty dollar the reserve go to currency. Gold's surging price is a threat to the dollars status as THE SAFE HAVEN. How does this play out? Only a guess of course but more than likely more of the same. Controlled increases in gold coupled with price suppression then surges only to met with more naked short suppression. In other words continued paper trading opportunities. The biggest problem for those of you trying to trade the miners is what happens when they have a similar run like they had in early 2011 or late 2010...you remember that don't you....when they ran off and left you as you tried to trade them for 3% gains...missing out on their 30% move. Just remember we are going to get one of these moves and it will move the weekly charts on the miners into overbought and into the upper longer term trading channel. It will be large and it will certainly be followed by another massive beatdown. Can you catch it?....I guess you'll find out. One thing is certain...with physical possession you have a lot better chance of succeeding. GL to all of you and I hope you registered your objection of SOPA to your reps....it won't do any good but what the heck......ya have ta try. For desert before I go......I will be picking up YCS.....short leverage on the Yen....its time to trade some currency.......and this pig is gonna pop.....more later on this today

Comments remain blocked unless you use google chrome or other browser etc...gl

QUITCHER CRYING

2012-01-17T17:16:00.001-06:00

No one promised you this would be quick easy money. Maybe you thought it was going to be. Number one you probably suck as a trader. Recognize your weakness and use it to your advantage. Understand that the shorter term fluctuations in the casino are designed PURELY to relieve you of your money. When you take positions as a trader you have to believe in the longer term story in your position to hold on if you get caught in one of the much deeper corrections. These deep corrections are designed for heavily over-loaded boats. In other words they have to be deeper and longer to remove the majority of the weak hands and have them replaced by the stronger smart money. Perfect example was the Euro currency trade. Everyone and their brother was loaded on the short Euro trade last year. So what happened?? THEY held that trade in a very long descending wedge pattern that broke the back of the leveraged shorts and took as many out of that trade as possible. Once they were eliminated they floated the usual media stories that the Euro was going to 1.50 then took it down through the 1.40 baseline and cracked it like an egg. THEN as all the newbies jumped on as it broke 1.32 support they took it all the way back up above the baseline and WHOOOMPH....right back down to 1.27 today......THAT is how you clean the pipes on an overcrowded trade.If you follow the crowd then be prepared to suffer some pain. You are definitely in a crowded trade with precious metals....but its a lot less crowded now than it was a few months ago. That is what accumulation is all about. They cannot accumulate with newbie investors crowding into the trade so there MUST be a correction. Have we had that correction in PMs? ABSOLUTELY! Don't ignore what happened the past 8 months in the PM miner's stocks.....this was dramatic. You should have been accumulating on weakness and selling the rips. Now you should be accumulating on weakness with less selling on the rips as these miners reach these oversold levels.You may get some more weakness over the next couple of months but my core has been increased and if they do take it down hard again then adding and holding should not be feared. Ask yourself the question.....just where do you feel more comfortable right now investing? Use the KISS strategy in this market....KISS...is Keep It Simple Stupid. THEY are accumulating.......YOU accumulate. gl all

comments still impaired...use google chrome as a browser or use your delete browser function under safety

FEAR!

2012-01-16T10:33:00.008-06:00

Terrible weekend news hits investors with waves of panic rolling through markets sending the indices to record bottoms. Sounds plausible after hearing that the rating agencies have down-graded most of the European sovereign debt and countries are massing off the Straits of Hormuz for a showdown for a final reckoning (to coin Doc Holliday). Yes my friends we are in...........CAN KICKING. That's right...the real power...the FED...is stretching this as far as they can and they still have some rubber on that band. Don't get too attached to the immediate crash scenario...BUT here is the qualifier...careful getting too comfortable on the upside. This year will be every bit as terrible as last year was if you are unable to adjust to the volatility.

Most major market corrections will occur quickly and dramatically to load up the shorts for the inevitable squeezes. If you are going to short with etfs then use the non-leveraged etfs and accumulate a position as we reach overbot conditions on the longer term weekly charts....like now....I use RWM SH.. Also I play with tiny TVIX here for fun....that is only for those of you that like to play with fire. I also play the leveraged DTO. I do this for the obvious reason that I feel the PTB must maintain oil under 100 this year....and I only play a very small ammount. THIS is pure gambling so always exercise caution.

The volume has become abysmal in the market which creates desperate conditions for the participants. As volatility and volume decreases floor traders are literally withering on the vine with pain.......This is all characteristic of a failed market...so be aware this can end very badly when we least expect it. I'll stay with the "hope" that we get our last cycle uplift through the majority of this year. If we see the expected push into election the WATCH OUT AFTERWARDS....ALL BETS ARE OFF..my guess is we will get predictions of a year end pump, but instead we'll get a year end dump.

Gold and silver is your trade. I'm in accumulation.........if you don't know how to play that game...get out now...but essentially it is you carefully add on dips and you sell a little on rips keeping a nice core slowly building. gl all

http://news.goldseek.com/ClifDroke/1326741300.php

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/sp-downgrades-efsf-aaa-aa-may-cut-more-if-sovereign-downgrades-continue

COMMENTS is still being locked out but you can comment with effort...sorry...PTB are dicks....anyway use google chrome...log in to google acct before trying to comment....OR delete browsing history before you try to comment.....or even trying to look at comments blocks you out.....gl all

THE BIG PICTURE

2012-01-12T22:03:00.014-06:00

What a war. No...not the Iran Faux war. The war between the deflationary forces and Ben's inflationary counter-attack. By now most of you recognize that "the game" depends upon convincing the public that the USD has value and at the same time getting the peeps to increase their spending and therefore increase the VELOCITY of MONEY. The velocity of money requires CONfidence that what you buy or INVEST in will be worth more money down the road and that you have enough CONfidence that the economy will grow and that YOU will have a job a year from now. Businesses are scared and individuals are scared. They believe they are being lied to. They believe that the recovery is NOT going to last and that the very people and system that created this massive meltdown have done NOTHING to substantially fix it. They believe that they were promised a rose garden three years ago and a pile of manure instead was delivered. The same people that gave us this hell are still in charged. Instead of a Perp walk for the miscreants and a system overhaul for all of the malinvestment inflicted on this country we get a new Simon Cowell American Idol look alike. We get the National Defense Authorization Act preparing our new digs for the next decade or two. The land of the free and the home of the brave is suddenly being looked at as a charade by people that ten years ago would never have dreamed of questioning their countries direction or values. Instead they are watching their Secretary of Treasure overseas begging China to join in promoting another war in their OWN BACKYARD. Can you imagine China's response to Timmy behind closed doors today. We should be trying to repair this mess and create jobs instead we are beating the drums of war.

There appears to be a chosen pathway for the bankers out of this morass so do not deviate from YOUR investment strategy. THIS year will be the attempt to print and monetize the debt propping up this teetering finacial system. The best guess is they hold off with the big guns until May or June for greatest election impact and then announce an all out frontal assault to stave off deflationary collapse and default. The dollar will begin a drop at that point with the all out print and you will see the attempt at reinflation of equities etc. This will be very bullish for stock and precious metal....PMs will probably recover a month or two before the print so watch out if you don't have a core. We are in sketchy times so stack your physical and get out of paper that you cannot afford to lose. gl all.

COMMENTS PROBLEMS: I apologize for the comments problems and my IT department is working on it but understand my department is small and cannot fight Google or whomever likes to pull this chit. For those that can click on safety and delete browser then they can log on to site and post comments...stay with the program and comment... we'll figure out a way.... I added word verification that may allow you to comment.....gl also use google chrome as your engine

WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED?

2012-01-11T22:04:00.016-06:00

Hecla mining a 120 year old mining company just fell flat on its face. You can analyze the reason for an over 25% intraday drubbing but it really just boils down to technical damage and reaching the expected beatdown level of 4.50. It did overshoot intraday but closed well above it on the daily....4.61. Will it hold? Maybe. Who knows? So they closed a mine....the Silver Shaft at the Lucky Friday Mine, which has been closed since a rock burst in December, will be closed to remove built-up material in the shaft. Production at the mine is expected to resume in early 2013. As a result of the news, management lowered 2012 silver production estimates to 7 million ounces from 9.5 million ounces. So they lose a couple of million ounces of silver......IT AINT GOIN NOWHERE FOLKS!! What's next? My guess is that couple my expected pullback for the miners and this news and we could see a sub-3 price on HL withing the next few months. Did I buy today? Why yes I did...will I hold ALL the shares I bought? Maybe....I won't sell for a loss and if they don't make a trader for me I'll gladly hold and add depending on the charts and the overall miner and PM sector. Gotta take your licks and you can't predict these shenanigans in the PM mining sector. If you are holding then just realize you are still an investor and that time is on your side....eventually. If silver does move up this year you can bet that HL will start moving WAY before the Lucky mine reopens. I put up a weekly 6 year chart on HL for you to peruse...

Apologize for the comments section malfunction....I'm sure that it is "temporary"....hopefully it will allow comments to be put up today If you delete browsing history you can overide to do and view comments....

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Feds-order-closure-accident-apf-665838406.html?x=0

WHAT WOULD THEY SAY

2012-01-10T20:31:00.008-06:00

What would this soldier on Omaha Beach say if he knew the "real story". The complex geo-political economic struggle that has been solidly behind practically every war in the last 100 years. Would they have fought the same if they knew that behind this incredibly destructive and murderous war was just a continuation of the struggle of greed and power. Which side was truly the most evil? Hitler certainly qualifies as evil....that's indisputable....but what about our Allies...for instance Stalin...perhaps as many as 22 million Russians tortured and killed by this murderous dictator. Then there is Mao.... our Chinese communist ally....also a murdering dictator. Roosevelt bore "no responsibility for tens of thousands of Americans being placed in "internment camps"...even though the husbands and sons of the interned families were in the most decorated regiments in our history.....while their families spent the war behind barbed wire.

Wars are profitable.....period. Tremendous money is generated for the owners of the military industry. Employment is enhanced and years of malinvestment creating global financial collapse can be camouflaged by nationalistic fervor during global conflicts. Just think what the advantages are for a leader like Ahmadinejad or Obama...both under intense pressure economically at home. Oh how quickly they can whip the home crowd into a nationalistic fever pitch for war. How can I possibly believe it would be that easy? Well.....for one thing it works EVERYTIME.

Just be aware we are entering rough waters, and these are the most dangerous times for global disruption...and if you don't call THIS global disruption then I don't know what you ever would. The international finaciers that have been behind the creation of 1.25 Quadrillion in derivatives are going to have to unwind the Ponzi of all Ponzis and land this mess on the head of a pin without the bubble popping. GOOD LUCK!! I desperately hope they can pull off the miracle of a millenium....that somehow they can extinguish the flames from a Grand Supercycle Crash and save the world.......Please be successful.....but........well gl

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WHY LIE?

2012-01-09T07:52:00.011-06:00

Did you ever ask yourself why these government statistics are riddled with manipulation? Why is it necessary to engage in a constant barrage of lies? Of course I suppose we might assume that these people are narcisistic, sociopathic, habitual liars. We might be correct, but does that explain it in its entirety. After all....this has reached the point of absurdity. At least from my perch I am finding people having a hard time believing virtually anything now that comes out on the economy or for that matter anything on anything! (see Bin Laden assasination)

So why? Why is it so important to manipulate and lie about all of these parameters on the economy? I am going to narrow this conversation now. Let's just look at JOBS. I listened to an ex CEO of a very large Fortune 100 corporation talking about the job situationa and corporations not hiring. He distilled his response to something that was simple and easy to understand. When asked what it would take to get hiring going again he did not respond with the usual answers he kept it very simple. He said that companies viewed hiring simply as being able to look ahead with CONfidence (remember that word, its been stated here many times) CONFIDENCE CONFIDENCE! He then went on to elaborate that confidence is lacking most companies for many reasons. To put it simply there is a complete BREAKDOWN in the belief that this country and indeed the WORLD is going to grow in the near or intermediate future.

This is a structural job collapse and no one is going to invest in the future with small or large companies with the complete breakdown in our economic and political systems. Its over. The big lie has finally come home to roost. The lie is all they have to kick the can...and the lie itself is destroying CONfidence. The extraction of HUNDREDS of BILLIONS from our large corporations by the pirate CEOs and their executives over the past thirty years has destroyed many of the largest corporations that made our economy grow (see KODAK). You cannnont rape a company year after year by paying the very top of the companies execs hundreds of millions and plundering the retirement of the 99 percent of workers and expect your country to survive. Sure you can blame the bloated unions but guess who was stuffing their pockets with billions while they "caved in" to the "terrible" union pressures. CORPORATOCRACY/FASCISM....you wanted it...now you've got it. There is now NO confidence in this dying system of extraction of which YOU and I are members of. DONT LOOK AROUND NOW ....LOOK IN THE MIRROR! Back to the game.... we are in accumulation with another leg down before we find a bottom to trade.

BALTIC DRY INDEX

2012-01-07T01:33:00.012-06:00

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a number issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange. Not restricted to Baltic Sea countries, the index tracks worldwide international shipping prices of various dry bulk cargoes. The Baltic Exchange traces its roots to the Virginia and Baltic Coffeehouse in London's financial district in 1744. It matters because its considered an excellent barometer of the health of world commerce. Can it be manipulated? YES...but in the past it appears to have been quite accurate especially during the 08 collapse.

Most directly, the index measures the demand for shipping capacity versus the supply of dry bulk carriers. The demand for shipping varies with the amount of cargo that is being traded or moved in various markets (supply and demand).

The supply of cargo ships is generally both tight and inelastic — it takes two years to build a new ship, and ships are too expensive to take out of circulation the way airlines park unneeded jets in deserts. So marginal increases in demand can push the index higher quickly, and marginal demand decreases can cause the index to fall rapidly. e.g. "if you have 100 ships competing for 99 cargoes, rates go down, whereas if you've 99 ships competing for 100 cargoes, rates go up. In other words, small fleet changes and logistical matters can crash rates..." The index indirectly measures global supply and demand for the commodities shipped aboard dry bulk carriers, such as building materials, coal, metallic ores, and grains.

Because dry bulk primarily consists of materials that function as raw material inputs to the production of intermediate or finished goods, such as concrete, electricity, steel, and food, the index is also seen as an efficient economic indicator of future economic growth and production. The BDI is termed a leading economic indicator because it predicts future economic activity.

Because it provides "an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea," according to The Baltic, "... it provides both a rare window into the highly opaque and diffuse shipping market and an accurate barometer of the volume of global trade -- devoid of political and other agenda concerns."

Another index, the HARPEX, focuses on containers freight. It provides an insight on the transport of a much wider base of commercial goods than commodities alone.

BE AWARE FOLKS that other leading economic indicators — which serve as the foundation of important political and economic decisions - are often measured to serve narrow interests (imagine that;-), and subjected to adjustments or revisions (shocking!). Payroll or employment numbers are often estimates; consumer confidence appears to measure nothing more than sentiment, often with no link to actual consumer behavior; gross national product figures are consistently revised, and so forth. Unlike stock and bond markets, the BDI "is totally devoid of speculative content," says Howard Simons, an economist and columnist at TheStreet.com. "People don't book freighters unless they have cargo to move." I agree with this quote to some extent but that does not mean they can't manipulate it...so always be suspect and use it as one metric only. Just realize that its past has been very reliable and worthy of your examination! We are under the current assumption that a SLOW and STEADY recovery is in place BUT the current BDI chart shows a precipitous drop..

Examination of the BDI charts show marked deterioration and paint a disastrous picture of the world economy. Is it a tell that refutes the recent hype to recovery?? Well I think you must agree it bears watching if it falls through support in green....watch out below. The PTB are going to throw everything they have to keep this from breaking support.

http://www.balticexchange.com/default.asp?action=article&ID=19

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Dry_Index

Please watch the second half of the Keiser Report video....very telling

BANK RUNS AND CONSTANT QE

2012-01-04T20:37:00.012-06:00

Just sit back and watch as the ECB and FED balance sheets expand beyond Goodyear Blimp status. QE will continue as it has since QE2 ended. It just isn't being called QE.....at least not yet. What we are undergoing now is continual coordinated QE with the resource rich nations caught in a quandary. Can they endure the imported inflation as the developed pigpens print to infinity? Instead the move away from the dollar will continue as it loses its reserve status with incremental swap agreements between major trading nations continue to arise. Japan/China/Russia/Brazil are just the beginning as they struggle for dominance with the Western powers and their fiat monopoly. This will not end well as we continue our depreciation wars to keep our GDPs positive. The tradeoff for now is a slowly boiling stagflation. As we lose CONfidence in the value of our currency then the velocity of money that Joe and others have referred to will begin to increase rapidly as the holders of the dollar cannot wait to get rid of the dying currency. Bank holiday and devaluation will be called or a new currency instituted. It may seem relatively benign for some of us but in many countries food comprises 70% of a family's budget and you've already seen just how destablizing can be in these countries. The Arab spring is about economics. The inequity of the classes...make NO mistake. It is coming here too so don't get too apathetic about this issue. For now we are talking printing and printing means that eventually there will be inflation so prepare. It won't be immediately but once velocity picks up then it will be fast. My best guess 2-3 years.

I still believe the miners will have a washout and become oversold on the weekly so those of you holding some cash still just be patient. Those of you with your cores, hang on or go to physical and forgetaboutit.

TICK TOCK

2012-01-02T13:44:00.005-06:00

The beginning was in the summer of 1914, a day or two before World War I opened, when Germany abandoned its gold standard and began to spend more than it had, run up debt, and expand its money supply. The end came on November 15, 1923, the day Germany shut off its money pump and balanced its budget. Over the nine years in between, Germany’s inflation followed not a constant course but a characteristic ascent and descent, a ripening and a decay.

Germany started by not paying adequately for its war out of the sacrifices of its people—taxes—but covered its deficits with war loans and issues of new paper Reichsmarks. Scarcely an eighth of Germany’s wartime expenses were covered by taxes. This was a failing common to all the combatants. France did even worse than Germany in financing the war, Britain not much better. Germany’s bad financing was due in part to a firm belief that it would be able to collect the price of the war from its enemies, whom it expected to defeat; but to a greater degree it may have sprung from distrust that its people would support the war to the extent not only of fighting it but also of paying for it. Whatever the reason, Germany’s bad war financing did not immediately demand its price. Inflation in the sense of rising prices was moderate. Domestic prices only a bit more than doubled to the end of the war in 1918, while the government’s money supply had increased by more than nine times. The government’s debt increased still more. So long as the government in this way could spend money it did not have faster than its value could fall, Germany had both its war and life as usual at the same time, which was the same as having the war free of charge.

After the war, Germany and all the other combatants underwent price inflations which served as partial corrections for their wartime financing practices. The year 1919 was a year of violent inflation in every country, including the United States. By the spring of 1920, German prices had reached seventeen times their prewar level. From this point, however, the paths of Germany and the other nations diverged. The others, including the United States, stopped their deficit financing and began to take their accumulated economic medicine by way of an acute recession in 1920 and 1921. Their prices fell steeply from the 1920 level. Germany alone continued to inflate and to store up not only the price of the war but also the price of a new boom which it then commenced enjoying. Germany’s remarkable prosperity was the envy of the other leading countries, including the victors, who were in serious economic difficulties at the time. Prices in Germany temporarily stabilized and remained rock-steady during fifteen months in 1920 and 1921, and there was therefore no surface inflation at all, but at the same time the government began again to pump out deficit expenditure, business credit, and money at a renewed rate. Germany’s money supply doubled again during this period of stable prices. It was this time, when Germany was sublimely unconscious of the fiscal monsters in its closet, which was undoubtedly the turning of the tide toward the inflationary smash. The catastrophe of 1923 was begotten not in 1923 or at any time after the inflation began to mount, but in the relatively good times of 1920 and 1921.

The stimulation of the government’s easy money spread through virtually all levels of the German economy. The life of the inflation in its ripening stage was a paradox which had its own unmistakable characteristics. One was the great wealth, at least of those favored by the boom. These were the “profiteers” of whom everyone spoke. Industry and business were going at fever pitch. Exports were thriving; that was one of the problems. Hordes of tourists came from abroad. Many great fortunes sprang up overnight. Berlin was one of the brightest capitals in the world in those days. Great mansions of the new rich grew like mushrooms in the suburbs. The cities, particularly in the eyes of the austere country folk, had an aimless and wanton youth and a cabaret life of an unprecedented splendor, dissolution, and unreality. Prodigality marked the affairs of both the government and the private citizen. When money was so easy to come by, one took less care to obtain real value for it, and frugality came to seem inconsequential. For this reason, Germans did not obtain so much real wealth as the growth of money alone would have indicated.

Side by side with the wealth were the pockets of poverty. Greater numbers of people remained on the outside of the easy money, looking in but not able to enter. The crime rate soared. Although unemployment became virtually nonexistent and many of the workers were able to keep up with the inflation through their unions, their bargaining, and their cost-of-living escalator clauses, other workers fell behind the rising cost of living into real poverty. Salaried and white-collar workers lost ground in the same way. Even while total production rose, each individual’s own efforts faltered and showed a measurable decline, and the quality of production deteriorated. Accounts of the time tell of a progressive demoralization which crept over the common people, compounded of their weariness with the breakneck pace, to no visible purpose, and their fears from watching their own precarious positions slip while others grew so conspicuously rich. Feelings of disunity and dissent were epidemic among the Germans, and nationalism among them was never weaker. Regional separatism was so strong that it came close to breaking up Germany into fragments.

Along with the paradoxical wealth and poverty, other characteristics were masked by the boom and less easy to see until after it had destroyed itself. One was the difference between mere feverish activity, which did certainly exist, and real prosperity which appeared, but only appeared, to be the same thing. There was no unemployment, but there was vast spurious employment—activity in unproductive or useless pursuits. The ratio of office and administrative workers to production workers rose out of all control. Paperwork and paperworkers proliferated. Government workers abounded, and heavy restraints against layoffs and discharges kept multitudes of redundant employees ostensibly employed. The incessant labor disputes and collective bargaining consumed great amounts of time and effort. Whole industries of fringe activities, chains of middlemen, and an undergrowth of general economic hangers-on sprang up. Almost any kind of business could make money. Business failures and bankruptcies became few. The boom suspended the normal processes of natural selection by which the nonessential and ineffective otherwise would have been culled out. Practically all of this vanished after the inflation blew itself out.

Speculation alone, while adding nothing to Germany’s wealth, became one of its largest activities. The fever to join in turning a quick mark infected nearly all classes, and the effort expended in simply buying and selling the paper titles to wealth was enormous. Everyone from the elevator operator up was playing the market. The volumes of turnover in securities on the Berlin Bourse became so high that the financial industry could not keep up with the paperwork, even with greatly swollen staffs of back-office employees, and the Bourse was obliged to close several days a week to work off the backlog.

Another busy though not directly productive sector of activity was in capital goods and industrial construction. The boom’s excessive emphasis on producing new means of production was striking. Travelers remarked the contrast between Germany’s new, humming factories and the old, depressed ones of neighboring countries. Much of this indiscriminate growth in plant capacity made sense only in the bloated inflationary expansion, but not otherwise. After the inflation ended, much of Germany’s brand new inflation-built plant was “rationalized,” which often meant simply torn down again.

Concentration of wealth and business was still another characteristic trend. The merger, the tender offer, the takeover bid, and the proxy fight were in vogue. Bank mergers were all the rage, while at the same time new and untried banks sprouted. Great ramshackle conglomerates of all manner of unconnected businesses were collected together by merger and acquisition. Armies of lawyers, brokers, accountants, businessmen, and technicians who spent their time pasting together these paper empires bolstered the lists of the more or less employed. The most fabulous of the conglomerates was the empire of Hugo Stinnes, which comprised hundreds of companies at its peak in coal, iron, steel, shipping, transport, paper, chemicals, newspapers, oil, films, banks, hotels, and more. Stinnes was Mr. Everything who had also begun to colonize abroad and is supposed to have contemplated organizing all German industry into a single super-conglomerate. After the inflation ended, Stinnes’ empire and many lesser ones were found to be functionally and financially unsound, and they disintegrated more or less messily. Stinnes died.

It was typically true that the Germans who grew the richest in the inflation were precisely those who, like the speculators, the operators, and the builders of paper empires, were least essential to German industry operating on any basis of stability or real value. With the end of the inflation they disappeared like apparitions in the dawn, and scarcely a one of the “kings of inflation” continued to be important in German industry afterward.

http://www.delanion.com/main/dom.htm

2012 PIVOTAL BATTLE FOR SURVIVAL

2012-01-01T13:26:00.005-06:00

This year will mark a year of turns. East meets west and the battle for financial and political survival begins for the sovereign nations and their despots. The outcome will not be determined for several years. The hope is to avoid a worst case scenario which is a loss of the entire central bank control of the developed world and most of the rest. Realistically the hope is that full blown nuclear war does become a reality. If you wish to believe this is the likely outcome then by all means help yourself, but I will not waste the time I have on this earth expecting this bleak scenario. I do forsee turmoil and global instability proceeding as we stress our resources after binging on credit for the past three decades. I also see worsening restraints on our freedoms across many continents as governments try to protect the PTB from increasing citizen outrage as the promised recovery sinks into the sunset over the ocean of lies.

Many of you that have followed my posts over the years may view this as too morbid but if you read closely I have always maintained that a cleansing and a restart is going to be necessary in our bloated and narcicistic world to create a more sustainable future. I am not intellectually capable of telling how this will play out but I am optimistic enough to believe that we will make it to the other side. Most of us that take simple precautions will arrive intact. Some of us might even be in a stronger emotional and economic position when the journey transitions into a more positive experience. I think the time period for that to begin will be about the 2020 time period. Most of you have also read enough of this blog to know that the 120 year cycle will end in 2015 which will leave us very crippled in a number of ways economically and politically. So it would be unlikely that meaningful recovery or dramatic technological changes will begin to show major dividends until 2020 at least.

Should you go off grid now? Of course you should if that fits into a good, acceptable lifestyle for you. Simplifying your life is commendable. Unfortunately many of us are social animals and live in more urban areas and off grid lifestyles in many areas of this country result in increased isolation so that won't be practical for a lot of us. Will your friends and family still be involved in your lives as much off grid? In some cases the answer could be "even more".

There are many changes ahead for us as these excesses and social changes are made. Don't make any sudden changes without contemplating their longer range impacts. Some of you are cashing out of your retirement accounts expecting paper assets to collapse. Maybe that will prove prescient, but what if the PTB navigate a landing of the paper ponzi in such a manner that paper retirement accounts survive. You may wish you had let some of that money stay in those accounts. Be careful jumping onto the latest doom and gloom solution.

The oligarchy and their largest global corporations are not going away. How it resets and renews will be for us to figure out. If you wish to read commentary here this year then help this community and participate in the comments as often as you can. I am in an accumulation of miners and physical gold and silver now ON ANY WEAKNESS. I am still in a good cash position. I look for a very nice low in PMs in the next month. gl

THE WAY WE WERE

2011-12-29T22:24:00.006-06:00

Can it be it was all so simple then? Indulge me.... I just want it to be like it used to be, you know, like it was when we weren't living the illusion of a free market.....say maybe 1828 or so....whenever Andrew Jackson had thrown out the bankers...before 1913. JFK was the last President to try and take us out of the Central Banker's control...and that didn't quite work out. http://www.john-f-kennedy.net/executiveorder11110.htm Maybe just paranoid internet conspiracy theory but it makes for a great discussion. Strange how LBJ with a stroke of a pen reversed it immediately after being sworn in. At least that's the story.

While we enjoy the remainder of the holidays we can at least pretend that we are a republic and that we do count in the democracy that so many Americans died for. I know I can delude myself. Its how I maintain my daily optimism. Its a belief that somehow the evil that man participates in ultimately is returned in full. It is a belief that I can make a difference in at least ONE other idividual's life. Maybe its just a small thing to help....but to that person or their family it could make all the difference in the world that day. You underestimate what simple acts can do for other people. I'll never forget that day in the New Mexico desert 32 years ago when my girlfriend and I had a flat. The Texas family that picked us up and drove us 30 miles into town AND BACK with a tire disrupted their vacation for two strangers. Would you have done that? Time's running out for all of us so I hope you take advantage of everyday that's left.gl

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)

THE BULLION WAR

2011-12-28T16:44:00.004-06:00

So how does a metal's price takedown playout. The mechanics are rather obvious...you take down MFing Global and you lease gold for nothing. Throw out your usual suspects like Gartman and presto.....you get your sell off. Just one fly in the ointment...those pesky physical bullion buyers. Will they cease? Paper price manipulation can have its advantages if you are only playing the stacking game.......remember that. The below article is a classic case of front running disinformation.....METHINKS THOU DOTH PROTEST TOO MUCH

NEW YORK | Wed Dec 28, 2011 3:10pm EST

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The United States Mint said on Wednesday it has enough American Eagle gold and silver bullion coins to meet demand and does not expect to allocate them in early 2012.

Sales of the U.S. gold and silver bullion coins have slowed in the fourth quarter as precious metals prices retreated from record highs, bucking a trend earlier this year when investors flocked to physical gold and silver as safe havens.

"As we plan on having sufficient quantities of all coins available, we do not anticipate having to allocate the initial release," U.S. Mint spokesman Michael White said in a note.

The Mint had allocated its sales of gold and silver Eagle bullion coins to its authorized dealers in the last several years as unprecedented demand and a lack of coin blanks led to depletion of its supplies.

White said on Wednesday the Mint's recent supply was adequate to meet demand and allocation to dealers was no longer necessary.

Silver Eagles December sales were around 2 million ounces, sharply below its record of 6.4 million ounces set in January -- the highest monthly sales since the start of the American Eagle bullion coins in 1986.

Gold Eagles sales were at 65,000 ounces, about 20 percent below its monthly average this year, the Mint's data shows.

Bullion coins are mostly sold to investors, while the Mint also produces proof and uncirculated coins targeting collectors.

2012 BEGINNING OF THE END update I

2011-12-23T17:00:00.009-06:00

Let's face it...the game is up. Hopefuly not for the world like the picture may indicate but for the market. Last summer after a few weeks of the market leaking in its usual pullback for another ponzi push upward to keep the peeps in the game by maintaining CONfidence....something extraordinary happened.....the market cracked like an egg and plunged 500 pts in a day. I wrote a piece that day proclaiming it was over....not because I believed the market was going to just start crashing, but because it was apparent that something had changed internally. There was no way the PTB would allow that type of crash without having made a decision that the peep's CONfidence was no longer paramount to their overall plans. My guess was they had determined the effectiveness of that aspect of manipulation was a waste anyway and that the bond market ultimately was the much bigger target to protect and extend.

Now we are entering into the shark's pool....at least those of you that are still in the market. Perhaps you feel its necessary to continue trading in the market for your IRA money. Just remember that you do have a choice there. You can take the penalty and pay the taxes. You don't have to keep this rigged game up. I do not disclose what I do in this regard and you have to make up your own mind on what suits your needs and peace of mind.

A lot has transpired since my last post here. For myself the rest was welcome and helped to recharge my battery. For the rest of you I hope you paid attention to the MF Global hit er collapse. This should serve as a warning to all of you that you are now playing in the shark's pool and the shark is getting more hungry with every passing day. There WILL be more collapses like MF. This game is in the early innings still. Many of you have investments in large institutions believing they are safe from the shark. You may be get a rude awakening.

The Kondratieff winter is now beginning in earnest and my warnings mean little unless you act. You act by developing awareness. You look to prepare for all of the events that you CAN prepare for. You don't live in fear. Life is to short for that but for most of you there are loved ones that depend on you and planning without frightening them is your duty. I will not go into detail on the guns, food, water, or shelter ...there are plenty of sites available if you look. What I will talk about is the capacity that each of you have within yourselfs to help others. It may be a small job for an elderly person you do...or food you bring someone..or a little money.....but it is what will sustain not only them but YOU too.

I will continue to post this year on the market...or what is left of it. If you feel inclined to comment then by all means do so. This site has NEVER taken a penny of donations or advertising and will not do so ever. This site depends on the community of commenters for it to exist and sustain it.. SO YOU are the site. IF you wish others to join the community then link this site when a good post warrants it and others will join. For now we will see the momentus events that await us as the K Wave begins. gl all.

http://sherriequestioningall.blogspot.com/2011/12/email-sent-out-by-roger-weigand-trader.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-25/china-japan-to-promote-direct-trading-of-currencies-to-cut-company-costs.html

"Surely you understand?"

BLOG WILL REOPEN DEC 31

2011-12-06T20:09:00.013-06:00

Alacer Gold Corp. (TSX: ASR.TO - News), Andina Minerals (TSX-V: ADM.V - News), Applied Minerals (OTCBB: AMNL.OB - News), Augusta Resource Corp. (NYSE: AZC - News), AuRico Gold Inc. (NYSE: AUQ - News), Chesapeake Gold Corp. (TSX-V: CKG.V - News), Comstock Mining, Inc. (NYSE: LODE - News), Curis Resources Ltd. (TSX: CUV.TO - News), DeepGreen Resources Inc., Extorre Gold Mines Limited (TSX:XG.TO - News), First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE: AG - News), Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. (NYSE: FSM - News), Gabriel Resources, Ltd. (TSX: GBU.TO - News), General Moly, Inc. (NYSE: GMO - News), Gold Canyon Resources Inc. (TSX-V: GCU.V - News), Gold Standard Ventures Corp (TSX-V: GV.V - News), Golden Minerals Company (NYSE: AUMN - News), Goldgroup Mining Inc. (TSX: GGA.TO - News), Great Basin Gold Ltd. (NYSE: GBG - News), Guyana Goldfields Inc. (TSX: GUY.TO - News), Hochschild Mining PLC (LSE: HOC.L - News), International Minerals Corp. (TSX: IMZ.TO - News), International Tower Hill Mines Ltd. (NYSE: THM - News), Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (NYSE: IVN - News), Minefinders Corp. Ltd. (NYSE: MFN - News), Nautilus Minerals Inc. (TSX: NUS.TO - News), Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. (NYSE: NAK - News), NovaGold Resources Inc. (NYSE: NG - News), Pan American Silver Corp. (NASDAQ: PAAS - News), Paramount Gold and Silver Corp. (NYSE: PZG - News), Premier Gold Mines Ltd. (TSX: PG.TO - News), Pretium Resources Inc. (TSX: PVG.TO - News), Royal Gold , Inc. (NASDAQ: RGLD - News), San Gold Corp (TSX: SGR.TO - News), Seabridge Gold, Inc. (NYSE: SA - News), Silver Standard Resources Inc. (NASDAQ: SSRI - News), Tahoe Resources, Inc. (TSX: THO.TO - News), Taseko Mines Ltd. (NYSE: TGB - News), Timmins Gold Corp (TSX: TMM.TO - News), Trelawney Mining and Exploration (TSX-V: TRR.V - News), U.S. Gold Corp. (NYSE: UXG - News), Vista Gold Corp. (NYSE: VGZ - News),and Wildcat Silver Corp (TSX: WS.TO - News).

END OF THE BLOG

2011-09-08T22:37:00.003-05:00

This will be the last post. I want to thank all of you for the time that you have contributed and hope that in some part this blog helped you to get through a treacherous time in your lives. You were like family and I truly will miss all of you but times will become increasingly difficult and my family and work demands my time. gl to all of you...

WHERE THERE'S SMOKE

2011-09-07T20:31:00.006-05:00

There's confusion....or something like that. Leave it to the Central Banks to create another moral hazard. This is getting complicated.....and I like it. Think about the Swisse move. Pure genius unless you are a Swisse. Let me correct that, unless you are not a Swisse Multinational Corporation. The attempt by the Swiss was to make their exports more competitive and prevent an overvaluation of their currency since it had become a "safe haven". Now to the meat of the commentary.....The move ostensibly helped to bring down the Swisse but it also helps to SUPPORT the Euro too since the Swisse are buying the Euro peg. Nobody talking about that are they. BUT what was more interesting was the attack on GOLD right after the dastardly currency manipulation by the Central Banks. In the middle of a slow overnight market they sell 7000 contracts in a nanosecond on the market. WHOOOOOPS...that made some margins choke and puke. BUT WHY?? To hold the price of gold down? Perhaps....but I think it is extremely weak to believe that is going to do much beyond a couple of days. NO....I think all it did was try and stem a monster move by Gold in the face of the Swiss removing the Swisse Franc as a "safe haven". It was really just an attempt to decouple the thought process from the investing public that GOLD IS A SAFE HAVEN. I'll repeat...it was to keep the phrase GOLD IS A SAFE HAVEN from being talked or THOUGHT about by the sheeple. CNBS lately has been having an inordinate number of talking heads vocalizing (and laughing) that gold is NOT a safe haven...in fact it is anything BUT a safe haven. I've heard that so frequently over the last couple of months that I am now beginning to see WHY this pattern had developed. Now that the Swisse took out the franc as a "safe haven" its very obvious that this has been anticipated and the need to kick the legs out of the "safe haven of gold" needed to be attempted with this blitz of experts repeating this mantra. Of course that means that they disseminate these talking points through their primary dealers well in advance so never assume that these repetitive talking points are accidental. Look for continued volatility going out now in Precious Metals but use this to accumulate on weakness. Its a game and you are pawns. Just don't be dupes. BTW under the cover of "smoke" the boyz stole your miner shares cheap this morning. While you were watching the bleeding in gold they were grabbing shares of the miners.

To the picture above today. Nice protests huh? 450 thousand protesters! Must be some Italian mob..... nope.... Thats Israel. That's right. Perhaps the most aware populace on the globe. So what are they protesting? hehehehe.... That's right the bankers. Dontcha love it.

ENJOY THE WATER

2011-09-06T21:28:00.008-05:00

This may be a time to ACT LIKE A PIG. No I don't mean to get greedy...well not TOO greedy...maybe a little greedy. Hiding in the water may work but the boyz are back and these guys know what to do with a wanker like you. They'll put sauce on you and barbeque you. We are entering a traditionally strong seasonal period for PMs and the miners. I am suggesting that we could be headed into a storm for the miners. This trade has been struggeling for the last six months and has made little headway as the hedges have beaten it into submission. They accomplish several purposes by doing this. They keep the leveraged beta players crushed in this trade while they accumulate their shares. This allows them to build positions of strength while they kick out the weak hands onto the curb choking and puking on their worthless expired options. Overtime a flat or down trade creates a lot of disenchantment for traders and the miners have been NO exception. They've made an excellent trade for some of us this year but have wrought misery for others that missed the swings. If you exert enough pain most traders eventually give up and this is exactly what this sector has produced this year.

I cannot tell you short term that the miners are the place to be but I think you have to look at them closely right now. They have broken significant resistance and held on the $HUI. Being out of this trade now is potentially a costly miss. I suggest that you buy a basket of miners here and hold on to your core for then next few months. Add on weakness and HOLD ON. I trade these aggressively but I am going to be careful to try NOT to trade out of my core unless oversold becomes extreme. gl all this game is getting into the "we play for keeps" innings and a lot of very strange volatility is going to come into play.

AINT IT A BITCH!

2011-09-05T21:20:00.008-05:00

Gravity that is. RIGHT now its pull is an overwhelming force that needs to obey its law of physics. Levitation is a trick...NOT a law of physics. Now the law of nature is exerting its force and it must be obeyed. Now, having stated the obvious let's look where things are. I'll use my dyslexia to abbreviate and move on. Germany and the Eurozone is the whole ball of wax. I'll let you know a little secret. Germany is going to be a sacrificial lamb for the Eurobanks. They don't care one iota about the Germans and only want to suck the last drop of blood from them to help recapitalize their banks....ie to hold up the bondholders (themselves). Actually it is no different from what is going on here. We are the host and the bankers are the parasite. A good parasite host relationship exists when the parasite can derive the maximum sustinence from the host (eg. U.S., Ger., Russia, France etc.) without destroying the host. The bankers are not just a highly developed parasite....they are the ULTIMATE parasite.

We are not going to see an "over the cliff" episode here. Hopefully we will get an opportunity to enter some more longs in the miner's trade if a significant pullback occurs. If the overall market pulls back in the next few weeks to a bottom such as 1050 or less I know I'll be looking for long trades to enter to ride for a few months. NOTE ..A FEW MONTHS. Not just miners but some others like S, SGY, HERO, ATPG, WPRT, etc.

Right now the fear trade has been working with gold and silver. Silver has more potential the rest of this year AND so do the miners. I still like EXK AG SVM RCI SSRI SLW. We're in a trading war so play the swings and hope for some blood. REMEMBER you need a core. This trade WILL run off and leave you during the next two months. It has left me before so hold that core and hope you get to add to it on a nice pullback.

The Euro is flirting with breaking 140. That has been an exhausting trade with EUO...but i believe they are about to let it go.

Big week ahead in Germany with the German Court decision on the bailout. Don't worry they are bought and paid for like our Court is so they should OK it. Look for Merkel to get over-run by a mob when she sell out her country. This game is getting to the nuclear stage so hang on.

Remember how many times I have repeated CONfidence as the primary driver of all of these manipulations. Now you are hearing it virtually every hour in the commentary on the MSM. It has become a mantra for the talking heads. Too bad they just can't wrap their arms around what REALLY restores confidence. It isn't the "good ol boy" system. It isn't the "business as usual". It isn't "too big to fail" so lets rape the public instead. It isn't about catch phrases and destroying the constitution with threats of fear and false flags. It is about integrity and ethics. These are simple concepts that "they" have NO CLUE about and therefore WE are screwed and so are THEY. gl

UNEMPLOYMENT

2011-09-01T22:34:00.011-05:00

Once again we get to the key......the CON in eCONomy...CONfidence. Key statistics released recently showed that over 50% of Americans were fearful they could lose their job in the next year. Shocked? I doubt if most of you are. Its been discussed here and in your comments. Restoration of this critical element in an economy is paramount to whether or not the velocity of money can be restored again. The CON is the problem. Everyone is getting wise to it. They may be 180 degrees wrong as to its cause and its solutions, but they know it when they smell it, and it stinks now to the moon. If the unemployment numbers are better than expected the market could sell off 300 points. No one believes anything anymore. Particulary the numbers and right now the only thing this market is in the process of,is rotting. That doesn't mean you can't make money at it however.

Guessing the markets reaction tomorrow is impossible, but guessing the market over the next 3 weeks is a little easier. We need a pullback and a buy and hold pulverizing. Without it the boyz cannot get the sideline money back in. Especially after the recent damage to investor psyche. For one thing you can count on a Bernanke bounce. If Ben doesn't bring in the sugar it may only last a day or two. If the market is tanking hard prior to the meeting then we can look at how much room we have to run in terms of time. I don't think Ben is going to release the big sugar at the meeting. Its expected...unless the market breaks the recent lows prior to the meeting. Right now I have a guess we get a nice two week bounce out of whatever Ben does. Maybe up to the 1270 level...then another hard tank and a real ball buster of an October. Enough that Ben will be forced to bring out the sugar and bring it out in a massive move....probably in late October after the market has just been crushed.....below 1100 maybe below 1000. We'll see. We need blood in the streets for that sideline money to get in.

We play the market, NOT the economy. The economy is in collapse. Do not confuse the two. We're playing sugar here. We're playing what the boyz are doing and the reasons why. Be very careful on the long side until you see blood and can't stand pushing that buy button. Watch the charts. Look at the monthlies...the weeklies...the RSIs the stochastics. Day trade for small gains on intraday oversolds on stocks you like. This is guerilla warfare in the pits. You have an advantage. Your measly number of shares does nothing to the share price when you move in and out. USE THAT. Nothing wrong with buying 1K or 2K shares and taking a 20c move as an oversold intraday move develops. USE the VOLATILITY when things get rolling. ABOVE all keep 40-50% cash in place until this thing shows us its tradable BOTTOM.

TROUBLE'S COMING

2011-08-31T22:32:00.008-05:00

And its not going to be long. Brasil lowered interest rates by 50bps unexpectedly last night due to unexpected deterioration of data. As Gomer Pyle used to say... Suuprize suuprize suuprize....

Then of course our fudged jobless numbers will come out this morning...Market Consensus Before Announcement
Initial jobless claims in the August 20 week 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 417,000 but were skewed higher by a labor strike at telecom provider Verizon that has since ended. The Labor Department says there were at least 8,500 claims related to the strike in the week and at least 12,500 in the prior week (these levels are before adjustment). The four-week average ended its seven-week run of declines, rising 4,000 to a 407,500 level that shows a 7,000 improvement from the month-ago comparison.

Here is the anticipated response.......so what? Reality is....its done for and WE KNOW IT! SO......WGARF (you fill it in)

We're in a bad spot with a ramped market elevated to a sugar high from the candyman Dr. Bernanke....thats triggered riots and political upheaval globally due to his exported inflation and now he's entered the danger period. What's the danger period? He knows very well that the "extend and pretend" to "work out" the excesses so that a deflationary washout can be avoided is hanging by a thread. He knows that realistically he gets one more shot at immortality. He misses this next "bazooka move" and the "danger" will erupt.

This is the part that doomers get giddy about. War, pestilence, global starvation....end-o-days stuff. The kind of scenario that Celente drones on about.

Nearer term we get a choke and puke with a readjustment of the markets so that we can at the very least retest the lows or whatever it takes to bring in some cash sitting on the sidelines to give us our next market move. Maybe we get the announcement at the next Fed meeting in a couple of weeks....but I'm not convinced that we'll get the low then. Without a real market beatdown before the meeting then the meeting may turn out to be a sell the news event. It doesn't really matter now...the market is going to tell you. Keep a heavy cash position until the market cracks. Trade around your core and remain CAUTIOUS.

GOLD CONFISCATION

2011-08-30T22:25:00.003-05:00

Will it happen again here? First of all, unlike the last time no one owns gold any longer other than the well healed upper class. Its the currency of "Kings" ...remember. We only have so many Kings and they are in the distinct minority. The growing class here are the peasants and they own no gold.

Roosevelt issued and executive order in the Great Depression in an effort to boost velocity of money. Executive Order 6102 was signed on April 5, 1933, by U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt "forbidding the Hoarding of Gold Coin, Gold Bullion, and Gold Certificates within the continental United States". The order criminalized the possession of monetary gold by any individual, partnership, association or corporation.

The order was rationalized on the grounds that hard times had caused "hoarding" of gold, stalling economic growth and making the depression worse. The New York Times, on April 6, 1933 p. 16, wrote under the headline "Hoarding of Gold," "The Executive Order issued by the President yesterday amplifies and particularizes his earlier warnings against hoarding. On March 6, taking advantage of a wartime statute that had not been repealed, he forbade the hoarding 'of gold or silver coin or bullion or currency,' under penalty of $10,000 fine or ten years imprisonment or both." from Wikipedia.

Executive Order 6102 required U.S. citizens to deliver on or before May 1, 1933, all but a small amount of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates owned by them to the Federal Reserve, in exchange for $20.67 per troy ounce. Under the Trading With the Enemy Act of October 6, 1917, as amended on March 9, 1933, violation of the order was punishable by fine up to $10,000 ($167,700 if adjusted for inflation as of 2010) or up to ten years in prison, or both. Most citizens who owned large amounts of gold had it transferred to countries such as Switzerland. Even back in the 30s this was a monster for the feds to enforce. The Gold Reserve Act of 1934 made gold clauses unenforceable, and changed the value of the dollar in gold from $20.67 to $35 per ounce. This price remained in effect until August 15, 1971, when President Richard Nixon announced that the United States would no longer convert dollars to gold at a fixed value, thus abandoning the gold standard for foreign exchange.

Another rumor that no proof exists for was the confiscation of safety deposit boxes by Roosevelt through an executive order. Examination of the actual Executive Order as issued shows that this text never appears in it. In fact, safe deposit boxes held by individuals were not forcibly searched or seized under the order, and the few prosecutions that occurred in the 1930s for gold hoarding were executed under different statutes. One of the few such cases occurred in 1936 when the safe deposit box of Zelik Josefowitz, who was not a U.S. citizen, containing over 10,000 troy ounces (310 kg) of gold was seized with a search warrant as part of a tax evasion prosecution. In 1933 approximately 500 tonnes of gold were turned in to the Treasury "voluntarily" at the exchange rate of $20.67 per troy ounce. from wiki.

Not a bad haul in gold though was it?? 500 tonnes can go a long way in shoring up some shortages in your reserves though.

I don't see your gold getting confiscated but I guess one never knows. There are a lot of ways they can disrupt the trade but ultimately as noted in 1933 it is an unenforcable law in many ways.

EXHAUSTION!

2011-08-30T00:02:00.005-05:00

The yo yo market has left many traders whipsawed into confusion, exhaustion, and MISTAKES. Pros AND retailers. This is where leverage can destroy you completely and the recent action of the market as I noted was an indicator that policy decisions from the FED had indeed changed.

Initially the health of the market and the picture of CONfidence was considered to be vital to restoring velocity of money as more peeps became confident that the "economy" was improving and spent that dollar. Of course it was improving with over a Trillion of stimulus and 8 Trillion of Fed intervention it could only go up from the nadir of early 2009...but the GDP growth was trully abymal. I've beaten this dead horse too many times but there was virtually NO ATTEMPT AT REPAIRING the STRUCTURAL impediments to the recovery of the economy and the concomittent UNEMPLOYMENT. STRUCTURAL deficits CANNOT and NEVER have been resolved with monetary policy. I will NOT go into the structural issues.....why bother.... NO ONE SEEMS TO CARE.

We have juiced the economy for the last thirty years with MALINVESTMENTS from hot money put into "housing" ....creating construction jobs for mostly males that are now GONE for "mostly males". There is nothing out there for them and there is nothing that is going to be out there for them. The liquidity behind all of this still sits on the banks books in the form of TRILLIONS of derivatives that FAR outweigh the underlying mortgages that were created. These derivatives are hidden for a reason. THEY ARE NOT FOCHING REPAIRABLE. THEY are in the TENS of TRILLIONS. They would make anyone with a high school algebra class toss his cookies if he looked at them. But of course you will NOT be shown these "weapons of financial mass destruction".

Reminder: Tues 08/30/11 buy physical gold and silver....keep stocking food supplies...buy farmland....recheck home safety precautions...power alternatives...water storage etc.

Market strategy.....caution here but a strong core AND cash position of miners recommended. In no particular order...EXK...AG...SVM....RIC...GFI...SSRI...GPL...EGO...ANV...SLW...PSLV and PHYS for physical play on gold and silver.

We are in the late stages of the pump or the early stages of the collapse of the pump.....I pick the latter. This is where things get way too unstable in this market so make sure you are prepared. Confusion/delusion will be the purpose of many of the voices we hear on out so tune out the noise. I'm holding approximately 50% cash. I have a few shorts the rest are miners and PSLV. I won't committ any heavy cash beyond the 50%except for short term trades. gl all

FACES OF QE

2011-08-28T21:03:00.007-05:00

Chances are that many of you never come into close contact with the impact of QE on the most vulnerable of not only our society but the global society that it impacts. Putting a picture up does not really do it justice. I could have selected more graphic examples to show you but then does it really matter? Smiling, bright faces with so much potential but their future hinges on something that we take for granted...nourishment. We have gorged ourselves on plentiful, relatively cheap food. Our current attempts to reflate a staggering debt they we have binged on is dragging down the poorest across the world. This will not end well for anyone. This is how REAL wars begin. Not faux wars like we have been creating in the name of patriotism. Sure...if you bought into the Cheney doctrine that we deserve to do anything the biggest bully on the block desires to do without regard to any laws....international or ortherwise then perhaps we can make a case for our continued interventions. Just one problem....we can't pay for it any longer. That's how empires end. That is how we are going to end. Its inevitable and there is nothing we can do to change that. Whether you can make a case that everything we did over the last 20 years or more with our foreign interventions to support our Multinational corporatocracy was justified or not just really doesn't matter. You only need to do your math. You say you don't understand. You say its the Unions. You say its Social Security. You say its a bloated Federal bureaucracy. Well perhaps there is a modicum of truth to elements of all of that. Certainly abuses took place in all of those. But the real expense that KILLED us. REALLY KILLED us was the false reality created that we were under constant Attack with fear driving the incredible budget the military industrial complex sucked from the future of this country. Eisenhower warned us of this. It was breathtaking that a president would end his tenure with that warning yet NO ONE paid a bit of attention to it. The banker owned media buried it file Z and labeled Ike a moron.

The 60s ushered in a "new beginning" and a dashing new President with Ike dissappearing into the country club set and hole 19s. Control of all information by the bankers was already well established and Ike's warning was a mere formality to deep six.

Soon we were immersed in a new "war"....Vietnam. WWII...Korea...all history. Something new happened with Vietnam. The public became disenchanted with these forays into resource rich developing nations that they knew little about. Especially when 56 thousand boys come home in body bags. The boyz in control needed to modify their plans. First up was to create their own Centurions. So the "All Volunteer" army was created. After all if you had a volunteer army you didn't have anyone crying about getting "drafted" against their will. Not everyone could avoid the draft like Cheney, Pearl, Wolfowitz, Rumsfeld, Bush and others did. Of course you had to make sure there were outstanding candidates so amplifying patriotism and creating scholarship programs for military service provided an increasingly impressive pool of soldiers. As the middle class came under increasing economic pressure the military became even more impressive. Ouila....you had the Centurions that had been planned.

Alas just as in Rome all empires will come to an end and so will ours. Unfortunately so will the rest of us living here. At least in terms of our current level of oppulence. Will we create a new World war with our disruption of a fragile World population living off of dwindling resources. Will our fight to remain the bloated bully on the block create a conflagration of biblical proportions? I don't have any idea. I do know that trouble is ahead and you better be prepared.

We're traders here and we're going to use this forum to try and bring information forward that hopefully will make you money or help protect you. Keep stacking the physical gold and silver. Keep storing the food.

THE WIZARD SPEAKS

2011-08-25T22:22:00.012-05:00

Traders are transfixed as they await directions to the yellow brick road. As we get ready to trade on the news of the next monetization pronouncement the empire is engaged in at least seven conflicts with boots on the ground around the world. We of course try to down play five of these but never the less we are in places like Libya, Sudan, Syria, Yemen, Pakistan, and MORE (see map of most of the world). Now back to your regularly scheduled program. Ben gives the market a pep talk today. He plans on droning on about how monetary policy is prepared to provide support to the markets and liquidity if needed and that the chances of recession have increased but still remain relatively low. Even though he will do whatever it takes to keep capital flowing that he has limits in terms of creating jobs. (This will be the part where you want to listen closely. voice clears again... ben speaking...Without the involvement of coordinated strong fiscal policy the structural impediments to job creation will remain in effect for the foreseeable future. (rubs nose and drinks his water) he proceeds...Not only is it difficult to see these problems changing in the near term but visibility for their improvement remains opaque. The Fed will maintain agreements with Central Banks for currency stabilization while the monetary stress remains high. he then continues with some blah blah and some more blah blah.

In other words ....the wizard is ready and willing to fire his bazookas. The problem is we are already in QE3 and 4 and 5. We have opened up swaps with open market agreements with Eurozone banks pumping in hundreds of millions of greenbacks. OR...how about the "guaranteed zero interest rates for two years".....These measures are exporting inflation and the developing countries will come under increasing stress and destabilization. Ben knows it and he knows he's between a rock and a hard place. He also has NO clue or ability to create jobs. Giving the banks trillions will not create jobs. It will only fill black holes. You will continue to hear the words CONfidence and FEAR dozens of time every hour on CNBS. They cannot exist together. They are mutually exclusive. Without CONfidence there is NO velocity of money. With FEAR...there can be no CONficence restored. 80% of the US population is one social security check or one pay check away from BROKE!! Do you really think with that level of debt and lack of savings the consumer is suddenly going to start growing the economy and spending?? GOOD LUCK with that one.

Monetization will continue. It has to. Without it the whole enchilada collapses. You bring in a Volker now and its instant depression. Why do you think they shipped him back to Manhattan in 2009 after 40 seconds of listening to his recommendations.

Nothing will change to improve this. At least until we get "bad enough" and are forced to. We are paralyzed by a corrupt system controlled only by greed, money and the human spirit...GREEEEED! What can I do to help my country is NOT foremost on people's minds. Its how do I save my ass. gl... We are traders here and we make money but that doesn't mean we have to turn off our minds.

A VISIONARY

2011-08-24T22:18:00.011-05:00

vi·sion·ar·y/ˈviZHəˌnerē/Adjective: (esp. of a person) Thinking about or planning the future with imagination or wisdom: "a visionary leader".
Noun: A person with original ideas about what the future will or could be like.

Rarely does one have the opportunity in today's business world to see the rare combination of a leader/inventor/visionary that is able to navigate the cross currents of deception and betrayal that so characterize our current corrupt corporate world. I still recall when Jobs turned Apple over to Sculley...the much heralded CEO from Mickey Ds. It was duly noted in the press as a necessary and much needed step for Apple to take so that it could swim with the rest of the sharks on Wall Street. After all, Steve Jobs was the heart and soul of Apple but without a true Corporate leader of Sculley's pedigree Apple just could not grow. Well it did grow. It grew into a company of cameras and toasters......it became a joke. Sculley even managed to fire Jobs. Finally the coup de gras was Gil Amelio. Apple was flat on its back and had become a footnote in the world of computers by the time they brought Jobs back.

By now his genius was established with the development and success of several companies of his own. The rest was history with Apple. Without a doubt one of the most amazing turn arounds in history and also without a doubt due entirely to Jobs. He provided an inspiration to people that believe the evil empire can crush all human endeavors. He never gave up.

Job's contributions have affected people all over the world and elevated the human spirit. He loved his work and even as he fought for his life he maintained his love for his company and its people. Good luck to an extraordinary figure and may he go in peace in the remainder of his time on this earth.

DON'T FORGET

2011-08-24T00:10:00.004-05:00

Nature does not. This essay has a purpose and it's to challenge your preparedness. I am well aware that most of you have done nothing to prepare for shortages of food or water or energy. That is just human nature. The changes that are coming will not just be economic they will also be spectacularly ecological at times. There is no reason to enumerate the potential catastrophies that are going to befall the unsuspecting masses as we stress the planet and encroach upon the limits of its sustainability. We have gone long past that barrier years ago. Now we are just skipping rocks on the edge of the abyss. It can last years longer or it can end rapidly for many sectors of the globe as imbalances created by the current economic crisis put these areas in jeopardy. As more natural disasters tax existing infrastructure and the ability to respond... the likelihood of a repeat of the Katrina debacle will increase. Imagine as we enter into a devastating deleveraging across this country that saps the municipal and state agencies' resources AND we layer on a series of devastating natural catastrophes. Sounds dramatic but probably more likely than an apocalyptic end of the world catastrophy. These events have a profound impact on limited resources and can trigger wide ranging public mood breakdown.

Our planet has a limited ammount of resources. Let's assume for arguments sake that NO apocalyptic event ends our earth as we know it. What is more likely are man made and nature made shortages of precious resources in the NEAR TERM. Can you provide for your family if dislocations take place over a period of weeks? Months? Or longer? While we play in the casino I only want you to look around you long enough to be aware that simple precautions now will protect you from sudden dislocations created by looming economic problems and unforseen nature events. THEY DO HAPPEN and they are happening with greater frequency. Don't expect a drowning government to take care of you if these events increase in frequency. Maybe you are uncomfortable with letting your family or neighbors believe you are too doom and gloomy. Maybe you believe they will recommend a visit to a therapist. Fine....get a little courage and leadership in your life and let them know (with a SMILE) that it doesn't hurt to take simple precautions. The disaster you see above happened in my back yard. Thousands of people in a matter of seconds were homeless and many were killed. Most had made no preparations. I suggest that when damaging earthquakes happen in non-earthquake regions of this country you may want to make some plans. Water, food, heating, emergency shelter, etc. Not just guns and ammo. Get involved....do some DD.....Chuck's commentary is not extreme. Wake up.

DIVE DIVE!

2011-08-23T01:34:00.006-05:00

Well overnite futures show some buoncy but will they end up like recent rises with a quick look above the water and then a fast submersion? Gold needs a severe beatdown but like most sneak moves the trade continues to race while most retail are standing by waiting for the perfect reentry. The only thing that makes this parabolic move tolerable for this participant was the paper position in the miners that I have taken which also threatens to show more upward movement here...and of course my PSLV position that has actually outperformed gold percentage wise.

If you don't realize just how treacherous things are then note that Soc Gen is involved in a full bank run. They will not let this bank go down. At least not this year. Don't expect much more than a bump within yesterday's SnP rectangle to play out. I included an SnP 2 day chart for some resistance levels in green.

$HUI is a break out now we are getting some real strong candles in the miners and I expect follow through....with one big caveate. If they beat down gold here the miners will certainly follow. If you have a large position then at least take some profit in the near term....but an aggressive hold here just might hit a homerun. You're the captain and you have to take the shot.

Joe expects some of our energy plays like ATPG SGY to really bounce hard when "the bottom" is hit. We aren't there yet. Also watch ALU. Opportunities for buy and hold (at least for a month or so may arise in some of these beaten down players....again...we arent there yet.

Right now I'd like to see a push back up to 1200 for some short entries but that may take some antics from the Fed......so shorting will depend on how the market responds BEFORE the Bernank speak on Friday. gl all

THE DEVIL'S GAME

2011-08-22T00:12:00.003-05:00

Easy money made on the short side short term. Now its the oversold choke train game. How much money can we get into the game before the trade turns. If you recognize what happened two Mondays ago when the Dow was crushed over 500 hundred points after the SnP downgrade of the U.S. debt AND the preceding political song and dance game for show....then you know that the big boyz pulled the OFF SWITCH. That's the opposite of the ON SWITCH. In a rigged market that is technical terminology for "we're goin' DOWN". Not just down in the market but down in the overall world economy. There is virtually no bright spot in this game right now. Cycles dictate that we take a breather on our monetization binge before we blow our election cycle payback schedule for the current administration of the Empire without Sun. Unless we want to start the meltdown this week in a big way then liquidity for a drowning EU banking system has to be opened. Since we are the big printer it will be gentle Ben that opens up the swap spigot for the Eurozone.

This is where it will get interesting though. QE2 was a stealth bailout of the Eurozone and political backlash was minimal for gentle Ben. The next bailout is not going to go down as easy. It will need to be swathed in baby clothes and chocolate. Ultimately it will be recognized but the key right now is not so much painting the market tape for CONfidence as opposed to getting 50billion a month into the Euro bank run to stem that disaster. Ultimatel all of this will be bullish for the PM trade but not necessarily for the stock market. Good short squeeze this week coming and you don't want to be on the wrong side of it. The better trade might be the Ben trade. Ben speaks on friday. I'm betting on him. I'm betting two ways. One...He rallies the market Friday and two he fails to deliver the goods. That's right two bets......btw they won't be big bets. When I say he fails to deliver I mean the long anticipated QE3 announcement won't be made. The timing isn't there yet. We need more blood before they pull that pin...if they EVER do.

Look for some announcements out of the administration to try and soothe the markets this week regarding fiscal stimulus. It will have to be a mix of tax cuts and incentives for job creation. NONE of which will have much real impact but should give some "Breaking News" bump from the MSM. We're talking serious trouble right now and they aren't going to sit on their hands without taking at least some free shots to slow the slide. Of course you know who will be ahead of the Breaking News loaded on the long side as usual.

Thats the dice game you're in right now. Its loaded and you need to be too to play. Gold is breaking out as is silver and for now a lot of momentum is behind it. Look for some more parabolic move before the crush this trade....and they will. Its too easy and the weak hands need to get picked clean. My guess is they will hit it right after or right before 2000 cross for a battle. Maybe a coordinated effort to rip the trade. I don't see it getting much below 1700 but I'll decide when I see what their effort is composed of. Unless they solve the insolvency of the Eurozone and ours too then Gold's not going for the major dive yet....it'll just feel like it though. Remember 200-300 pts would be fairly brutal. We're in a vortex now and its not going to be reversed by monetization...just altered with brutal squeezes and trading. I would like to offer you sage advice but I don't really have any. This is end-o-days stuff for market traders. The last two weeks were only a taste of things to come.

I THOUGHT THEY HAD MY BACK

2011-08-19T01:41:00.009-05:00

Where is the Bernanke put? Maybe all of those doom and gloom nut jobs on their blogs were right. Maybe we are headed into a depression.

I'm certain those thoughts are entering the mind of many Wall Street traders that have the economic experience that can fit on the end of a thimble. The past three weeks have been a severe blow to the extend and pretend crowd. Can they turn it around again? In short.....no. Can they squeeze the shorts until their gonads begin to pop out of their ears. ABSOLUTELY and don't you forget it. Will they? 100% guaranteed.

This is the part that tests your thesis and your ability to understand the global economic structure and the mechanics of the market structure. In other words you better have been paying close attention to the political and economic lessons that have been discussed here over the past two years. Joe, Red, and many others here have a knowledge of the participants in the mechanics that make the wheels turn and if you have tried to follow their comments and the posts you will be better equipped to get through the coming Kondratieff Winter than most.

Most sheeple are still wondering how to pay down their debt AND buy a new hot tub. They really have no clue what the coming storm is about to bring. Of course some have a feeling of impending doom or vague fear of losing their job. Other than what the MSM feeds them they cannot react. They have frozen 401Ks and retirement accounts that will bear the full brunt of a liquidity trap/collapse.

We just finished with a two year Bull Market. It was designed to bring CONfidence to the sheeple and try and heal a global liquidity collapse by buying time. Now the CONfidence part of the equation is destroyed. So now the real game begins. This is the type of market that the top of the food chain likes. This is where the tiger rules and the harvest of the weak begins. The best advice I can give to most of you is to get out of this market and go to PMs, food, farmland, rural areas to live (at least get out of major metro areas) and prepare for rough few years. Most cannot or will not make these changes and will freely choose to try and play in this game of top predator takes all.

If you have a 401K you can "borrow" against it for instance to buy farmland but you MUST consult a qualified accountant to tell you how to accomplish this within the framework of the law. SEPs and IRA rollovers are easier to use for "other investments" but again you must consult a qualified accountant to advise you. Closing these accounts outright will cost you dearly with taxes and penalties. For some this may be acceptable.

Look for a massive effort by the Central Planners to put some brakes on this next week and shove a lot of the shorts over the cliff. I have no idea what their next form of QE will take but it will be a massive attempt of monetization that will focus on the Eurozone.

EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!

2011-08-18T06:38:00.006-05:00

Just get me offfffff! This isn't fun anymore. So much for investor CONfidence and tamping down the fear factor. How's that jobless recovery workin' for you? Overnite rumors filtered into the overseas markets that a big investor was caught in the DAX and was liquidating a very large position. Paulson must really get around (snicker). This is getting REAL SCARY again as CONfidence is getting sucked out of the "risk" trade right in front of your eyes. Market participants are in full panic mode as they look for "safe havens" and guess what THAT is. Its amazing as I look at gold this morning ripping through 1800 in the midst of another equity "run". We've talked about gold's currency play and safe haven play and its now put up or shut up time for the gold haters. Its just beginning so don't expect the parabolic rise yet. It's coming but I have faith in the central banks to throw more of the good ol USD on this fire. Have faith sheeple.

Watch our miners for their price action today. It will be telling. A slaughter will tell you that more pullback is to come. A measured pullback to $HUI supports is a victory. Green day in some or many miners is EXTEMELY positive for their near term performance. Early selling may be expected but watch their performance during the course of the day. EXK SSRI SLW EGO GFI ANV GG AG GPL HL RIC.......etc of course PHYS and PSLV are our bullion plays. Let's gooooooooo.

THE MINER SHORT GAME

2011-08-17T18:58:00.001-05:00

RighteousTrader
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RighteousTrader
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Hedge Fund Ratio Spread Trades Continue to Distort the Value of the Mining Shares

I hope to have further on this topic sometime this weekend depending on time constraints but I wanted to at least get some charts up to demonstrate how severely undervalued many of the mining shares are in relation to the underlying metal as a result of the plying of this particular trading strategy.

One of the factors that I believe are involved with this severe underperformance of the shares in general is the advent of the ETF's. Those who want LEVERAGED EXPOSURE to either or both gold and silver can now use the ETF's to do so.

Formerly, there were two methods available - commodity futures or mining shares. Since the charters of some funds prevents them from investing or trading in commodity futures, funds who wanted this leveraged exposure to the metals were forced to go into the mining shares in the past. That implied that bull markets in the metals were going to see substantial money flows coming into the shares.

Since the ETF's came along, those institutions looking for leveraged exposure to gold can now directly purchase the silver or gold ETF's instead and margin those up to obtain leverage. In other words, they are no longer captive to using only the mining shares.

Additionally, the hedge funds, which have proliferated like mushrooms after a summer rain, are able to offer prospective clients exposure to the commodity markets since there is nothing in their charters preventing them from investing in the commodity markets. That attracts further funds that in time past would have flowed into the mining sector directly.

Keep in mind what is necessary to drive prices higher - sustained investment flows. Now, if the investment flows that formerly would be diverted directly to the mining shares have been split and are now moving directly into the commodity futures markets and the ETF's, that pulls a portion away from the shares. That means that there is a bit of an exploitable weakness, a chink in the armor if you will, in the sense that the amount of firepower coming into the shares, is weaker when compared to the other alternative forums for investing in the precious metals.

The hedge funds understanding this then employ a strategy designed to take advantage of the "weaker sister" which suffers somewhat from the smaller money flows heading its direction - they short some of the mining shares while buying the commodity futures and the ETF's. That selling then further absorbs the buying interest that is still heading into the mining sector shares.

The reason they do this is because it helps them manage their risk. When the market sells off in this volatile environment, they are able to profit from the short leg of this trade as the shares head lower generally at a faster rate than the metals themselves do. In other words, they might be losing $1.00 on their long gold or silver positions in the futures or ETF's, but making $1.10 - $1.20 on their short share position. In effect, they have a permanent put option.

This trade has been extremely effective for them which is why they seemingly refuse to give it up but at some point, the effect is to so distort the price of the mining shares in relation to the underlying metal, that something has to snap to bring the share price back in line to historical norms. After all, the higher the metals run in price, the more profitable the well run miners become. Stock prices are eventually determined by profits - Eventually some of the hedge funds plying this trade will begin to realize that they are pushing the trade too far and will begin to exit. That will set off a rush by the others to do the same.

We got a brief taste of this April 5 of this year when the HUI shot up nearly 30 points in a single day. That was the first sign that the days of this trade are drawing to a close. There is an old adage in the trading world which is apropos for this situation:

Bulls make money; Bears make money; but Pigs get slaughtered.

Hedgies beware. The time is coming when there are not going to be any sellers on the other side of your trade when you need to unwind it.

WAS IT WORTH IT?

2011-08-17T00:08:00.006-05:00

Are these the faces of evil? Are these the faces of avarice and excesses in the 20s? How did they fare in the last supercycle K-wave winter? Did they deserve the hardships and disruptions that took away the innocence of their youth? What was their trangression? Was it the leverage their parents took on to buy McMansions or an extra luxury SUV or a private golf club membership or too many nights out on the town. Surely there was an explanation for what they endured during the Great Depression. We've studied it extensively. Interestingly enough the damage to these little girls was quite obvious, just as the current predicament was quite predictable so was the Great Depression that stole their innocence. Leverage had reached a fever pitch in 1929..... everyone was borrowing to invest in the stock market. It was a classic bubble. Just as everyone in 2007 was flipping houses and making liar loans and bonuses on Wall Street were flowing faster than the derivatives that drove the ponzi frenzy. "No one could see it coming". How many times did we hear that after the crash in 2008. I guess No one could see 1929 coming....except Joe Kennedy and just about anyone else that could suppress their own greed long enough to see it was all an illusion.

How could we have allowed the changes to the Banking system that helped to permit this catastrophe? You were SOLD OUT. But the funny thing is you turned your head and allowed it to happen without so much as a wimper. There is a lot of pain coming. A lot of us view this as surreal. It is going to happen in a vacuum and we're just going to be able to watch from afar while your neighbor has a depression and you experience a recession. After all....you're prepared. Well....maybe you are....I guess we will find out.

Back to the subject at hand. What happened to those faces above? I wonder if they went to bed at night with a dry roof over their head in a warm house in the winters with a full belly while visions of sugar plums danced in their heads as they listened to the laughter of their parents sitting in the kitchen playing cards. Or.....could they have lived in a Hooverville with the chill winds of winter blowing through the walls in the darkness of their one room shanty with the entire family sleeping on a makeshift mattress of cornhusks sharing the floor with lice and rats and getting a bath from a dish of warmed water in the mornings when they could find a fire. Sounds harsh doesn't it? Too bad. It happened that way to millions. Families that committed no trangressions to deserve almost two decades of hardships but someone had to pay for the excesses of the prior cycle of decadence. I'll get off my soapbox now (it was really mostly for me anyway) and move on to the task at hand.

I don't care what the market does today.....I'm in an accumulation phase on PMs and the miners ......I will hold 50% cash in case they crash this baby hard to 1050 in the next couple of weeks but if miners rip to an overbought RSI then I'll trade. GL all but I see these faces every week now and its getting old. Nobody really gives a chit. Just greed. We're all guilty....that's the part I don't like....it makes me think we're going to get a chill wind again.

WHO HITS THE FULL CHAMBER?

2011-08-16T00:06:00.006-05:00

Let me see if I can distill recent events. Has the economy suddenly began improving. Well if memory serves me right the first two quarters GDP numbers were 0.4 and 1.3....OK? Next has housing spurted forthe with amazing improvements in prices?....No...In fact they are terrible and we have gone through the best part of this year and now we're heading into the seasonal dead zone for six months. Funny...I thought the previous six months were the dead zone. I guess the "price discovery" game being played in real estate just isn't baiting in enough suckers to jump start that bloated pig called "housing". It's funny how creating a bubble tends to remove investors from that sector for years...and years.....and years.

NEXT....have we removed all of the toxic debt/derivatives off the big bank's (and little bank's) balance sheet? NO......not only have we not removed them but we won't know if ANY is gone (and its not) because the promised TRANSPARENCY was never delivered to the public. Instead...we got MARK TO IMAGINATION of the toxic balance sheets of the banks. Anyone with half a brain knows they are bankrupt and holding hundreds of billions of worthless paper... and the only people playing are because they HAVE NO OTHER CHOICE. Every market participant knows its another game of liquidity musical chairs, complement of the Central Banks....namely OUR Central Bank. Printing and flooding OUR dollars into every rat hole around the world to try and stem the contagion.

Of course the liquidity has been running up the commodities as any form of real value is searched for by desperate Russian Roulette gamers. We all know we are running out of empty chambers in this game. Nerves are shot in this game now but its not time to pull the plug on the suckers just yet. Volatility is not over yet so be prepared. Its obvious that most of you are on the sidelines here. I hope you are prepared for the next move down. Hopefully you have a core of miners and PSLV adn PHYS that gives you some comfort. The big candle moves on the $HUI with last weeks down days and volatility are not to be discounted. I'll be looking for weakness to add and overbought conditions to take some profit.

Have the fundamentals changed? Have we fixed our fiscal and structural deficits? Then what is the plan? That's right. MONETIZATION and smoke and mirrors. Taking the "cure" is not an option. So....more fireworks ahead boyz n girlz....ITS SHOWTIME....

http://www.marketoverflow.com/market-forecast/eurusd---medium-long-term-forecast

Nice chart off turd's site from latcho...Silver chart

RIC how's this beauty?

TRANQUILITY RETURNS

2011-08-15T07:30:00.006-05:00

Or does it. Well thats how we're playin' it. At least for today. A lot of vacations out on the Island aren't going so smoothly. At least the traders are getting some scraps from the increased volatility. Mom and Pop on the other hand are just destroyed. Their CONfidence never really recovered from the 2008 debacle and to assume that they can be enticed to return to this casino after this week is gone forever. Stick a fork in the older generations and hope the younger ones can forget in a decade. I know we have a short attention span but its going to be hard to get over this.

Is anything going to change substantively this week in Europe? NO. Can anything change in Europe? Unless you believe the massive structural changes that exist within this region can be addressed with monetary policy, then NO. Expect our tranquility to be short lived.

Can our structural problems be addressed? Of course. But they will not. Should we cut and slash Medicare and Social Security? OR...should we get out of two foreign wars with NO objective other than a nebulous enemy called "terrorism". Terrorists that we are creating by the tens of thousands now by being in and OCCUPYING another persons country and killing their civilians by the millions over the last ten years. What are we thinking? What have we become? Yes ....let's focus on trimming a few billion off Social Security and Medicare. How about TRILLIONS that are going out the back door in these wars and NOBODY speaks out but Ron Paul.

Watch the game today....they've sneaked into the miners.....should be a nice grind up this year. Hold your core. PSLV looks good for a conservative hold.

WHO IS HE?

2011-08-13T09:51:00.006-05:00

Article from www.kwaves.com

To introduce the Kondratieff Theory, we must go back over seventy years and examine a remarkable story in economic history, encompassed within the life of one still little known man. I am certain that, in time, Kondratieff will rank with the giants of discovery as Einstein and Newton. Like these men, his insights have begun to alter radically and permanently our perceptions of economic history. The Kondratieff wave cycle goes through four distinct phases of beneficial inflation (spring), stagflation (summer), beneficial deflation (autumn), and deflation (winter). Since, the last Kontratyev cycle ended around 1949, we have seen beneficial inflation 1949-1966, stagflation 1966-1982, beneficial deflation 1982-2000 and according to Kondratieff, we are now in the (winter) deflation cycle which should lead to depression.

Professor Nickolai Kondratieff ( pronounced “Kon-DRA-tee-eff”) Shortly after the Russian Revolution of 1917, he helped develop the first Soviet Five-Year Plan , for which he analyzed factors that would stimulate Soviet economic growth. In 1926, Kondratieff published his findings in a report entitled, “Long Waves in Economic Life”. Based upon Kondratieff’s conclusions, his report was viewed as a criticism of Joseph Stalin’s stated intentions for the total collectivization of agriculture. Soon after, he was dismissed from his post as director of the Institute for the Study of Business Activity in 1928.
He was arrested in 1930 and sentenced to the Russian Gulag (prison); his sentence was reviewed in 1938, and he received the death penalty, which it is speculated was carried out that same year. Kondratieff’s major premise was that capitalist economies displayed long wave cycles of boom and bust ranging between 50-60 years in duration. Kondratieff’s study covered the period 1789 to 1926 and was centered on prices and interest rates. Kondratieff’s theories documented in the 1920’s were validated with the depression less than 10 years later.

Today, we are faced with another Kondratieff Winter (depression) when the majority of the world anticipates economic expansion. Each individual needs to weigh the risk of depression in light of Kondratieff’s work.

Accumulation and Consumption
U. S. wholesale prices dating back to 1800 show several periods of accumulation followed by periods of over consumption. Because these periods are statistically difficult to measure our outline follows historical events, pinpointing major changes in trend. During periods of relatively cheap prices, assets accumulate. As prices increase, the consumption of assets are necessary to maintain a standard of living. When new production fails to keep up with consumption, due to relatively high prices, the economy begins to decline to another period of cheap prices, and a new growth cycle begins.

Four Phases of One Cycle A Kondratieff cycle consists of four distinct phases, or distinguishable, dramatic mood changes, the tone of which determines the actions of individuals involved in the economy. The awareness of these characteristics allows for the anticipation of the change in the economy and the psychological mood that will prevail.

SPRING – Inflationary Growth Phase A common premise among business cycle economists supposes inflation as an inevitable part of growth. Government becomes a passive participant in the inflation cycle. Growth begins from a depressed economic base and expands in an ever-increasing spiral. The interaction of the participants within the economy causes wealth, as represented by savings, and the production of capital equipment to be accumulated for the future. The expansion of production and affluence causes prices to rise, and the increased volume of goods requires a higher velocity of money, thus creating a higher price structure.

Historically, the growth phase requires 25 years to complete. During this time, unemployment falls, wages and productivity rise and prices remain relatively stable. The mood of the growth phase is one of accumulation and the desire for new product manufacture.

Accompanying growth is a shift in social demands. As wealth is accumulated and new innovation introduced great upheavals and displacements take place. The process of social unrest builds with growth culminating in massive shifts in the way work is defined and the role of the participants in society.

SUMMER – Stagflation (Recession) Eventually, the continuation of exponential growth reaches its limits. Excess capital produces a shortage of key resources and the economy enters a period where growth creates a shortage of resources. An economy will only support expansion to the limits of its resources, both human and material.

The mood of affluence also brings a change in attitude towards work. As an economy gets closer to its limits inefficiencies build up

The imbalances of this period have been historically exaggerated by what can be labeled a “peak war”. Examples such as War of 1812, the Civil War, World War I and Vietnam, came at the end of a very affluent period. These Wars produce strains on the economy increasing the impact of inflation. A dramatic drop in output, rapid rise in unemployment and unusually severe recession characterize this period. Although this primary recession is short lived lasting only three to five years, it is key in altering perceptions and the structure of the economy. No longer does excess create an abundance. The “Limits to Growth” now define a maximum level of economic activity that traps the economy into consolidation and tight bounds for the next 20-25 years. With the change comes a conservative shift in the popular mood reinforcing the limits.

AUTUMN – Deflationary Growth (Plateau Period) The primary recession occurs out of an imbalance forced upon the economy by real limitations. The rapid rise in prices and changes in production correct this imbalance — at least temporarily. The change in price structure, along with the mood of a population used to consumption accompanied by the vast accumulation of wealth from the past 30 years, causes the economy to enter a period of relatively flat growth and mild prosperity. Due to structural changes and the limits of the existing paradigm the economy becomes consumption oriented.

Excesses of an unpopular war, along with fiscal liberalism, cause popular reaction toward stability or normalcy. A mood of isolationism permeates . The plateau period generally lasts seven to ten years and is characterized by selective industry growth, development of new ideas ( both technological and social ) and a strong feelings of affluence, terminating in a feeling of euphoria. The inflated price structure from the primary recession, along with the desire for consumption, produces a rapid increase in debt. Eventually, wealth consumption expands beyond all practical limits, and economy slips into a severe and protracted depression.

WINTER – Depression Excesses of the plateau period effect a collapse of the price structure. This exhaustion of accumulated wealth forces the economy into a period of sharp retrenchment. Generally, the secondary depression entails a three year collapse, followed by a 15 year deflationary work out period. The deflation can best be seen in interest rates and wages that have shown a historic alignment with the timing of the Long Wave – peaking with and bottoming at the extremes.

Kondratieff viewed depressions as cleansing periods that allowed the economy to readjust from the previous excesses and begin a base for future growth. The characteristic of fulfilling the the expectations of the previous period of growth is realized within the Secondary Depression or Down Grade. This is a period of incremental innovation where technologies of the past period of growth are refined, made cheaper and more widely distributed. Incremental innovation consolidates industries.

The Down Grade sees one final period of recession before transitioning to a new period of growth. The final recession is mild with very low inflation and appears far more severe than it will be remembered for later in the Growth Cycle.

Within the Down Grade is a consolidation of social values or goals. Ideas and concepts introduced in the preceding period of growth while radical sounding at the time become integrated into the fabric of society. Often these social changes are supported by shifts in technology. The period of incremental innovation provides the framework for social integration.

It is important to realize the Long Wave as global. While global issues are of prime importance today with increased air travel and communication, the Long Wave defines a time table for geo political events. The Growth Period is one of political stability. Staring a the peak old alliances become challenged. Through the process of the Down Grade old alliances fail and new alliances are formed. The final stages of the Down Grade is a period of coalescing or “quickening” of the alliances that will govern the next period of growth.

ARMAGEDDON!

2011-08-12T00:09:00.002-05:00

Not too bad is it so far? Highways are buzzing. People are still shopping. They aren't buying much but they're out and buying some. Seems fairly normal to the casual observer. However when one looks at the recent market convulsions a different picture emerges. Up until Monday a case could have been made that we were still engaged in perpetuating a market up trend that relied upon the Fed induced liquidity to pump more stardust into the CONfidence model that I have constantly harped on and I believe is/was central to the Political/Central Bankers plan to reinvigorate the economy. Rather than address the unwinding the debt leverage they have just added more debt. Rather than address the structural economic/employment issues they have depended upon monetization to ramp the stock market and the commecial/IB banks. Pure INSANITY.... Apparently I'm not alone in my CONfidence model....read Marti's most recent essay.

http://www.10sigma.com/files/Foundation%20Stones%2008-11-2011.pdf

What is next on the horizon? To answer this question one must look at this week. This week was significant. It completely broke the CONfidence model. Does that mean I am advocating an all short full court press here. NO WAY....a wounded lion can inflict a lot of damage. Just look at the last four days of candles.......NUTS!...NUTS I tell you...NUTS! What kind of healthy market pulls that off. The answer is a very unhealthy market manipulated and full of moral hazard. This creates fear. Fear begets fear and investors right now are scared stiff. The redemptions in the hedge fund world are horrendus and the money is going into the asset that was just downgraded by Standard and Poor's....US debt. How ironic... This is a classic meltdown with the chickens coming home to roost from all the moral hazards created by decades of leverage and most recently the obvious finacial takeover of the world governments. They always owned the politicians but now its not even hidden. When any consequential decision on our economic future is made it is even PUBLICLY deferred to the Central Bankers for the decision.

So what's next? Look for an all out effort this weekend to show a unified European answer to stem the Eurozone. At least to kick the can until Ben can make his grand announcement in Jackson Hole. The pomp and circumstance hopefully will give us the opportunity to come off of a great panicky low.....1050?? maybe... stay tuned ..this game has some blood ahead IMO.

Watch that $XEU descending triangle for the 140 base level break......or not. Right now anything is possible so don't bet the farm. If you are scared just stay in cash. Miners remain in a nice monster move off the last low in an accelerated channel and I like a core. hmmmmmmmmm surely not....

Anyway you can all rest assured....by the end of the year we'll know if I was right.gl

BREAKDOWN!

2011-08-11T00:46:00.006-05:00

Grind it out and crush the stops today would be my strategy after giving traders a severe migraine yesterday. If I am a ponzi master then the game would be to confound and pocket some nice change today with another round of whipsaw. I'm going to run your stops with a much more controlled range of trading. With the nice tanking today they may just want to spend some time with an upward bias before yanking the door open again. Rip and Run works well for pain too. Either way I just think a little steam out of the volatility is in order. If we are lucky they won't crush the PM headline prices right out of the gate but I wouldn't count on it. Of course any significant pullback in gold prices with the current fundamentals in place is going to be bought and bought significantly.

Miners did perform up to expectation so any pullback tomorrow should be met with buying....we'll see. A two or three day sideway's move is in order. Whether we get it or another hole shot out of the gate......again...I guess we'll see.

The performance of miners the past few days underscores why just holding a core and trading AROUND it is a reasonable strategy in this dangerous market. Remember...we have had 6 months of beating up this trade. Holders of the miners are looking for profit to dump this trade. Keep your cash in case this whole mess collapses but a core of PM miners is as good as anything else to hold here...at least in my opinion. Short post without TA...I'm on the run at this hour and tomorrow will be another tough day to trade for me. We're all on the road to hell together so help to contribute in the comments whatever you think is applicable to the current economic conditions. I really like anecdotal intel in your areas so don't hesitate to include these observations all.

HALLELUJAH

2011-08-10T03:35:00.002-05:00

Just like movie magic our precious market turned on a dime (after the appropriate head fakes and stop shops) and soared into orbit. Once again Hollywood and whoredom have intersected on Wallstreet. For me the night was a little more mundane and was chartology. It is very apparent that another major reversal candle was painted on the miners keeping them in a VERY important uptrend channel. This turn occurred with volume in many of the indices eg. GDX...GDXJ..and indiviual miners that I looked at ANV SSRI SLW EXK etc. Fwiw AG looks cheap still....but...it can always get cheaper. The market itself might have formed a multi-week bottom here. They need time right now and some nice triangles may be forming to bring us to the next bump down in a few weeks. That would set up for a multi week run in the miners. Will it happen? Guess we'll find out. Just make sure you keep plenty of cash stashed if they do a quick retest of the futures touch of the 1074. That could make a nice quick trade in the next few days. The 1200 level should provide a short entry trade if you are inclined....1204 is the 38.2 fib retrace of this dump so let's see if it breaks and holds that. No reason to be making any heavy bets long here.....you have to stand back and see how the market digests this horrific technical damage that it just incurred. This is analagous to driving a spear through a lions heart then watching to see if it can live. It may stagger around and kill you before it falls over so watch out.

Social mood is deteriorating and people are breaking down. The riots across England are very disturbing and it can spill over into the Eurozone quickly....If it does then this entire market ponzi will collapse. gl to all

"This is the underlying reality that informed traders understand. The whole system is being propped up by the power to print, and that power alone. No matter how many miracles some people think that paper money can accomplish, there is an underlying realization that the whole system is a hoax." Lew Rockwell Jr.

CRASH!

2011-08-09T00:01:00.003-05:00

I cannot put into words how crushed I am now that they have finally pulled the trap door on the greatest ponzi in history. Not because the excesses and greed that created this didn't need to be vanquished but because of the reality of what this has now unleashed on the real economy. We are about to be hit by a slow motion tsunami of unparalled human suffering that has not been seen for almost a century. If you think this is hyperbole and you find joy in what is about to befall your country and the world then think again. This is no longer predictive it is now in real time breakdown.

Over the past years I have discussed the issue of CONfidence and why this was the central issue with many if not all of the attempts by the Central bankers and governments to address the greatest ponzi of leverage in the history of the world and its breakdown in 2008. I'm not going to address its causes but to give you the effects of the past week's action and yesterday's market CRASH. Up until YESTERDAY there was the possibility that we might see a higher high this year. NOT now... This marks the darkest day of my trading in the plus 30 years I've been in the market. In 2008 I knew they could kick the can. It was an exhilarating time to be trading a bear market. The last two years were sad to see how far they could extend the ponzi without even one prosecution of any significant Wall Street individual. As they pushed this market to highs and the economy just continued to wither on the vine I knew that the time to pay the piper was growing nearer.

Today was DEVASTATING for me personally and the country. It marks the point of NO RETURN for the ponzi. Today marked the beginning of the point of recognition....the point at which market participants and social mood cannot go forward with the ponzi any longer. Bernanke and the Boyz would never have allowed this unless they had an insurmountable longer term problem. Its time to pay the piper. That realization gave me a sense of sadness and anger. Sadness for all of the good people that have no way to fight this or protect themselves. Sadness for the effects this will have on this generation of children and college graduates.....our future. They will be crushed. Anger because it did not have to be this bad. We could have been halfway through this if we had already begun addressing the structural problems. Notice that I have talked about the "structural" issues for two years and now that's all you hear. I am not an economic genius. WHY is the MSM just now discussing "structural" issues? Pay attention to world events they will unwind rapidly now.

Today's market.....Squeeze coming and ball busting for the shorts. At least if any are left. Remember.....one of the moral hazards in a totally manipulated ponzi cyclical bull market is the destruction of SHORTS. Note SHORTS supply and important part of the liquidity of an efficient market. Shorts give you brakes in free fall markets and help to push spiralling markets positive again. But what happens if there are no shorts....at least very few shorts relatively speaking? Freeeeeeefaaaallllll...

$SPX has support at 1050....overnite at 1080 already. This is a crash so no heroes..

SLW..30
SSRI..24...22...major dump..16
ANV...29.50
GPL...2.5 ...then 1.9
GFI 13.6....12
EGO..15...13.5
GORO..20.20
HL...5.0...4.5
AG...16.50...12
EXK..7.5

I'm leaving it there.... the rest...like EUO are holds here. These are supports and are to be used as rough guides for you if things get hairy and you need a quick reference. I expect a trading bottom to be set soon. They will pull out a new plan to infuse liquidity but it will only last a short time. GL to you.....you're gonna need it.

TRICHET BRINGS OUT THE BAZOOKA

2011-08-08T01:10:00.001-05:00

Where have we heard this before. What an unfortunate choice of analogies. Trichet announces the ECB will begin to buy bond of the big PIGS ...Italy and Spain...in his "bravest attempt yet". The Krauts wouldn't go for it, so the monetization of the debt begins....

Because the ECB will have to spend considerably more to have an impact on the bond markets of the euro area’s third- and fourth-largest economies, it may not be able to continue to sterilize its purchases by absorbing the equivalent amount from banks via term deposits, said Carsten Brzeski, senior economist at ING Belgium in Brussels.

That would amount to swelling the money supply, or quantitative easing, which may in turn fuel inflation.

“I don’t think that very large volumes -- like 50 billion a week -- can be sterilized,” Brzeski said. “Then they risk throwing their very last principle overboard.” from Boomberg.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-07/trichet-draws-ecb-bazooka-to-stem-contagion.html

As this post is assembled gold is exploding in the futures....up over 1700 and headed to the angel 1764 breakout to the moon. It is the beginning of the end for us but no one cares other than a few of us that are engaged. Most people are asleep and unaware of the unfolding tragedy. If you live in Japan maybe you are aware of what hell looks like as rice went limit up over the reactor fallout contamination. Anyway pay attention to the miners and PMs...most of my tail touches from last week were achieved intraday on Friday but I am going to post some wish lists below. All of you be aware CONfidence is now irretrievably lost with investors......the game is over. Now is just a matter of trying to find some traction and destroy the shorts and reinstitute QE 3 ...probably mention of that on Tuesday's FOMC announcement....enjoy....we WILL make it through.

HUI....495 is a monster support they already touched 512 on Friday IT MAY HOLD IF IT DOES you may want to add.

SLW did a tail touch of support at 32.50 and shot off hard Friday ...the 30 support is also a monster

SSRI has monster support at 24....

AG...wow all the way to 16 for big support...

ANV ....solid support at 29...will it??? could it??

HL ......looks pretty close to finished at just under 7...also bounced hard Friday

RIC .....gotta hold 6.5

EXK... needs to get to and hold 7.6...puleeeze

GPL...pleeze tag support at 2.6 but I doubt it breaks 3

LNG...squeeze at 6...and ...5....you need to watch if 7.50 holds tomorrow......

ALU...3.11...2.75

NBR...16.94 for a bounce

LDK... 5.10 for bounce and 4.10....

LLEN...2.48

gl and buy your physical gold and silver....oh ...and don't forget the Alpo.....

DOWNGRADE! WHAT'S NEXT?

2011-08-06T07:42:00.004-05:00

Under cover of weekend darkness the dreaded and much telegraphed downgrade of the U.S....S&P, one of the three major credit-rating firms, downgraded its rating for US debt Friday night – a move that has the potential to further spook global markets and drive up borrowing costs in the US. The reason for the downgrade, S&P said, was congressional dysfunction. headlines CSM...

If you think this was all initiated by the rating agencies.......think again. This is the same group that was present giving triple A ratings to all of the debt and companies that were literally bankrupted in 2008. Where were they rating Lehman...AIG...Bear Sterns....GE...GM...etc...?? these banks and companies were loaded with toxic debt to the tune of TRILLIONS that was collapsing under the weight of home prices and they did NOTHING. It was leveraged to the tune of 100:1 in some of these institutions. The initial drop of only 10% in home prices left them immediately bankrupted but there was NO action by the credit ratings agencies to warn us before it happened....or during the initial home price collapse. Many of you may be asking the question of what effect this will have on the system from a practical standpoint. The Fed is totally prepared for this event. We are in a DELEVERAGING cycle from unprecedented massive debt. This deleveraging is being engineered as well as any central agency can manage a catastrophe. Right now they are going to continue kicking the can while the deleveraging continues in the real economy.

Our economy is going through a structural collapse and rebuilding that will last for a decade. We have no one politically managing the fiscal side of policy. It is a disaster. Anyone that looks at this as a blame game for the current administration alone (and they do deserve plenty of blame) is ignorant of the past 30 years of public policy that destroyed the regulations and allowed an out of control banking industry to pump hundreds of Trillions of ponzi liquidity into the world. The same people that oversimplify the current situation as a democrat or republican problem still don't recognize that the entire political system is completely corrupted now. All three branches of government are now controlled by the influence of the largest corporations and a handful of "elites" (as Beck calls them) that have managed world banks and countries for more years than Count Drakula has existed. You aren't going to change that and it will continue long after this current debt debacle is over.

There is sun on the other side of this storm but there will be many years of pain ahead for us. Turmoil lies in front of us and we cannot avoid that. Perhaps we do get a conflagration that involves many nations, but that isn't something I can do anything about. If it happens many of you will probably wave flags like you did on the last two wars thinking its "necessary" as the carefully crafted MSM machine goes to work on you creating another evil empire or dictator. Its funny isn't it....."evil empire" speeches by a former President now are so obvious in their objectives.

To the issue of near term effects of this downgrade. Very little. It just sets in place for the public to see that the system is working to "monitor" the "collapse".
You are welcome to jump on the short bus Monday morning but as most of you know that bus could go over a cliff in a hurry. If you play anything look to catch the short squeezes on Monday. Gold will continue to benefit longer term ....PERIOD!!

DANGER ZONE!

2011-08-05T00:11:00.004-05:00

Miners need to pick up the next few days or they threaten a bearish 20/50 cross on the longer term weekly GDX. If we close lower tomorrow then I believe we test the lower BBs before any meaningful bounce which is around the 50 level on the GDX. This will play out within the next four weeks. 50 had better hold. Remember...the much speculated FEAR/PANIC play for QE 3 may be in play here. Eurozone is truly in trouble and needs our QE so this may be the play. If so they cannot take this too far down.

If you use the $HUI which I like better the picture is more interesting. NEXT major support is 495. There is also a possible near term channel that COULD form if the $HUI turns hard at around 512 area. This would put us back into a firm near/int. term bull move on the miners. Again...a big announcement tomorrow would do that. BE AWARE and pay close attention to that possibility. Again that would have to occur within the next few days and breaking 495 and holding under violates that nearer term bullish scenario. Please keep an eye on that very closely.

Patience here with shorter term trades only now. Gold has a very clear channel touch and hold of around 1520-1530 for me to get very comfortable. That may occur with some very violent moves down. Let's wait and see because the top of this channel does allow for a short term move if there is some major QE announced in the next few days for gold to go to 1734 as predicted by some. I call this all a danger zone to trade in. In other words a small core of miners and gold may be profitable short term but more than likely we get some pain near term. You can try and trade out if you get a fib retrace in the next few days. OR you can ride your trade. Sound confusing? It is...just remember...go to strong cash position with a bounce. I didn't say sell it all.....just make sure you have strong cash. Watch the WEEKLY BBs too and RSIs for bottoms to TRADE.

Another strategy is to think about using the $XEU. The EURO is in a bearish descending triangle threatening the 139 area for a doomsday break. I would like to see another overshoot of the top of the triangle in the next few days for a buy before it breaks through 139 but I have to believe its going for 139 fast. Anyway its a crowded trade so expect some highjinx. EUO is how I'm playing it.......not a lot of movement which may be the game......they may just rip it right through 139 and keep pumping it down. Either way I'm in it for the long ride to hell. 135 is a big stop (maybe)then 128 will be a fight......then 119 for the final slaughter.....none of this will happen overnite.

Let me be clear where we are now. It is very doubtful that we are going into a calamitous crash. The Central Bankers still have plenty of tricks that will create a wild ride for traders. The tricks will all ultimately fail...but they will use them. Remember...they own the press now. Just rumors alone will make great short squeezes. Don't forget the different breaking news BS during the last crash. Trichet should announce an emergency rate decrease anytime. They will float more rumors the Germany will support buying the Italian bonds. All BS but it will create havoc for the shorts. Alls of this will buy them time and thats really all they are doing. It provides you the opportunity to trade the technicals. Use the rips to sell and the dips to buy just don't fall in love with any trades now. Sounds simple but its not. You have to have ammunition and right now a lot of traders are burned. All of you know how I feel about this market....Its going to hell...but how it gets there will determine if you and I go with it....so be very careful and don't get too far on one side of the boat. gl to you

your futures as stock traders

MORE WATER!

2011-08-04T02:45:00.006-05:00

More accurately.....More liquidity. Its the lifeblood of capital markets. Its what puts out the fire of panic and right now there is a wave of panic sweeping the world markets. The Bernank is monitoring this with a lot more technology and information than we have and its a mistake to underestimate his ability to kick this can down the road further. There is no doubt that a day of reckoning is coming and he knows very well the economic cycle will ultimately have to be dealt with. As Droke and other cycle analyst have predicted a cleansing down cycle of the 60year cycle will clean out the excesses that we have enjoyed for the past boom years. No ammount of liquidity will change this ultimate solution. Deflation will be the outcome.

The debate will rage on how much stagflation (mistakenly labeled inflation) can we take and how long this will continue before they pull the plug but my calculations are another year roughly. It won't be smooth sailing getting there but it look like a walk in the park once the K-wave hits fully. If we are lucky enough time will be taken off the clock that we can continue to store enough acorns away and prepare for the Kondratiev winter more fully. Whether you buy into this scenario really doesn't matter. If you don't then only yourself will be to blame since you've had over two years of warning that it is coming.

Once again physical gold, silver, and cash needs to be accumulated and all debt needs to be erased. Stores of non-perishable food and water with hopefully some form of self sustaining energy source. These are common sense preparations. Whether they become needed or not is open for debate and time will tell. As for as guns go...thinking that having guns to protect yourself from a totalitarian government is just foolish. A police state will simply vaporize you in a literal heart beat. Guns would only serve as protection from the increase in crime FROM the disintegration of the state.

You need to concentrate on making money and forget the politics....That game was lost a long time ago and only nature will affect that outcome. More liquidity and monetization coming. It won't affect the velocity of money simply because the CONfidence cannot be restored. Its all about confidence and has always been. Structural destruction of your economy will not occur without a renewal that takes years and years to take place.

Miners EXK SSRI AG ANV SLW GPL still are in a bullish channel. I've taken a lot of the table and as usual will probably miss a lot of their move but my risk is now very tolerable. EUO is a better play here but the percentage is lower on the return. I'm more of a short term trader with PSLV and my core of PHYS is gone now. GL see ya later today.

CRISIS!

2011-08-03T00:53:00.004-05:00

Or paraphrasing a famous operative NO CRISIS SHOULD GO TO WASTE and pass that trader the toilet paper. We supposedly have no Quantitative easing now. Fear provides a great way to sell Treasury debt. Just look at the movements in our bonds. What a fortunate/serendipitous turn of events and again pardon the redundancy but "just at the right time". Of course we have over 500Billion in treasuries near term to dump...er..sell. What better way to move a lot of worthless merchandise than to have a "fear sale"...er..."fire sale". Imagine peddling bonds of a country that can't possibly pay back their debt. You have to be rather inventive and these guys are the best. I love it when people castigate Ben for being stupid. That is incredibly naive. These are well planned strategies that benefit fully the private bankers that Ben represents. Unlike many peeps that believe Ben is working for the U.S. you have to remind yourself constantly that Ben is representing a private global banking concern. If you think like "they" do then you become more aware of some of the strategies and can take advantage of the outcomes.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-02/obama-bonds-proved-world-beaters-as-congress-played-chicken-with-u-s-debt.html

When you have the world's reserve currency its quite predictable to determine the direction of U.S. bonds when fear creaps into the markets. Who needs QE when you have fear. Diseased debt gets sold very quickly when you have the least terminal (supposedly) of all the currencies. What you really have is the most liquid of investments to hide in when you are losing confidence in your own central banks and currencies. Buying U.S. treasury debt may be a lousy choice but its better than being fried in a worse currency. Right now the big money is jockeying for position in any "safe haven". The BEST currencies are Norway and Sweden but only so many to go around and the dollar/treasuries still get the bulk.

You'll see more illiquid assets accumulated like land but more importantly commods will catch a bid BIG TIME once the trillions of treasuries start to get liquidated....be aware a large ammount of money sometime in the next few years will form an avalanche into commods and equities.

Short term we still have some run on the core miners but this is one treacherous mess. Trying to find a tradeable bottom will be at least a couple of days. Let's see what friday brings with the "terrible jobs number" that EVERYONE knows is coming. We just might get a great bear trap being set. That's why Joe is laughing.

Sit tight with your core or take a little profit on the upticks. My guess is tomorrow is a bounce day. I don't see a monster short squeeze until AFTER the Job's report maybe Friday but its coming soon. Remember when there is blood in the streets.... A very nice scenario would be a bounce/minor short squeeze with tomorrow's jobless claims that set up for a nice flush on friday and into Monday with a short squeeze later Monday and into Tuesday. That's Waaay to predictable to trade so don't out guess yourself and overtrade. Just remember until Gold breaks 1700 its still short term bullish in my book...but if it pulls back before mid 1700s thats just beeeutiful and VERY healthy.

SLIPPERY SLOPE

2011-08-02T01:09:00.005-05:00

Engineering a global deleveraging economic cycle can create moral hazards that can have unintended consequences. This oft used expression is true and continues to drive the precious metals trade. The fundamentals that are behind the trade are very much intact and very much a thorn in the side of the Central Banks. They know that the more the competitive global fiat devaluation continues the more gold and silver prices will be pushed higher. Silver is more volatile which keeps a lot of traders away from this trade. However even with multiple attempts by the bankers to throttle the silver trade it still clings to the $40 level. Even with margin attacks on speculators the price remains strong. Time is not on the side of the bankers and nothing can stop the price rise of either metal unless they pull the plug on the monetization. The threats to do so have only provided buying opportunities.

Political pressure worldwide on the bankers to monetize the debt bubble will continue or the dreaded deflationary collapse will occur with warp speed. We know about the Eurozone troubles but what will drive the silver and gold trade in the the latter months of this year will be China. Watch the effects of the Chinese to jump start their flagging economy. Dr. Copper will be moving ahead along with Aluminum and nickel as they rev up their construction industry and employment monster. They put the brakes on their overheated inflationary expansion but they cannot politically withstand further GDP hits. So we are nearing another round of Chinese stimulus.

The U.S. economy is obviously hitting the skids now and its structural deficits are NOT going to be addressed. Monetization is the only thing the Fed knows and they will stay on that road as more voices are ALREADY calling for QE3. In fact they expect it so much that one commentator was calling the past QE2...QE3 before he noticed his mistake. Once the current administration committed to the banker's plan in late 2008 when the country was falling off the cliff....they had essentially made a pact with the devil for the destiny of the U.S. and the world. Now its just a waiting game until the economic cycle overrides the global monetary attempts to reverse deflation. If you recognize that deflation is essential as the solution AND you recognize that they are going to continue the futile efforts at devaluing the currencies and monetizing the debt issuance then you can MAKE the trade.

Gold still looks bullish short term and long term. Intermediate term neutral 1550 should get retested. Silver.....tougher call short term but I'll stay bullish on it. The miners hmmmmmmmmmm. I think you are going to get a bullish move over the next 2mos so play the trade.

The Euro/USD trade did turn as I had hoped it would and reclaimed the channel ...lets see how EUO does. gl

Bank run anyone?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/eric-sprott-real-banking-crisis-global-depositor-bank-runs-and-why-gold-going-much-higher-resul

GETTING FAT ON SHORTS

2011-08-01T01:17:00.007-05:00

Nothing tastes better than some roasted shorts in the morning in this market. Even the most myopic traders saw this coming. Its akin to shooting fish in a barrel. Guess wrong and you're on the wrong end of a pig roast. Of course pigs get slaughtered so don't complain. Clearly a manufactured "crisis". Whether or not it was going to be resolved before the market opened may not have been certain but its origin as a true crisis was always in doubt. The constant MSM drumbeat of horror and certain destruction was nauseating if not for its transparency.

Now we have to ask ourselves as longer term and short term traders what are the implications. I mentioned I had bought some XLF at the close in my comments Friday and I think that has a multi-day run in it but don't fall in love with it. I'll probably dump it at 15.30.

Gold may pull back here to 1550....but everyone expects that sooooo......
Silver is also showing nice support at 38.

$HUI would be very nice on my charts if it touches 530 intraday or even forms a base there a couple of days would be beeeeutiful....we should see this week. If I see very little movement in the miners over the next three days then I feel this could represent another base to move higher....as I've said between now and the end of the year I expect them to breakout from the accumulation moves. IF however we do get a surprise market crash/takedown then of course they will be slaughtered. 100% GUARANTEED!!

RIC is trying to make a stand right here on the 50ma
SSRI is also trying to hold here but may touch 26
EXK is trying to dance the 50ma here also so watch a touch around 9.22
GPL also trying to hold...but I'd love to see a touch of 3.0 area.
AG would have to hit 21.05 before I buy it.
SLW 34.50 would be a wicked buy
ANV may buy at 37 but 35 would be cheaper

Treacherous times we are living in. Don't lose sight of the big picture. This is a global deleveraging process and as long as we are trying to monetize this then shortages of essentials with price run ups are inevitable....and NOT far off. Start planning and accumulating.

THE HUNTER

2011-07-31T02:20:00.009-05:00

Make no mistake who the hunter is.....It's nature. There is no escaping nature not even the smartest minds the greatest economic cabal have, can outrun what is coming. Unfortunately the highest members of the food chain seldom have to pay the piper. Its almost always the weak and infirmed that suffer the consequences and in this case they almost certainly will (and are already) bearing the brunt. One in five families are on food stamps in the U.S. right now. What an astounding number considering we are not even in recession. The unemployment U6 is over 17%. Again we are not even in a recession. The revised FIRST QUARTER GDP was 0.4% and we are not even in a recession. Announcements of coming layoffs in many sectors are starting to pour in and no one is batting an eye on the MSM. CNBS is still quarreling over the threat to raise taxes on "Job Creators" while Rome burns. I guess they think that the great sucking sound of jobs wasn't a structural issue over the last 30 years but a burdensome tax issue on the billionaires and trillionaires. Maybe if they could push away from their own 7 figure salaries and look at the real peeps out their struggling to just make ends meet they might find a different America than their personal puppeteers want them to depict on air. Nevermind that is NEVER going to happen. Its amazing how much support/silence a 7 figure "reporters" salary buys you in today's MSM world. Loyalty is always for sale if the price is right.

Its Sunday and its just another day in the world of breaking news. Last night's lead story was the same as the previous two weeks of evening news......the Debt Crisis Showdown and how many anchovie pizzas the hard working pols had delivered to the capital while they tried valiantly to save our economy. It's amazing that in a precious 18.5 minutes of "Evening News" you get the same manufactured crisis for two straight weeks with a continual beating-up of the "tea Party" patsies without a single deviation from the story line. Worse yet they manage to trot out another Royal Wedding of the 13th in line of succession as a "filler" for the feel good peeps for THREE successive nights. I wonder if these journalistic Ho Bags can look in a mirror without puking.

Enough of the Sunday sermon. Just pay attention to the ball. Joe is lurking again and wants you to look at ABAT. Chinese company with a lot of potential in a sector that will be a monster. I still think Miners are in position to take a little further downside this week but long term you can hold them. Eventually they will move when the boyz have filled their stockings full. The SHTF eventually.....and it needs to but we've still got the lights on so don't bitch about the game....Its what keeps the lights on.

http://www.10sigma.com/files/Restructuring%20the%20World%2007-28-2011.pdf

DID ANYONE GET THAT NUMBER

2011-07-30T00:15:00.003-05:00

Of that bus that rolled over Wall Street trader's this week. For those that read this site on a regular basis then the past five days should have come at no surprise and the loss of 700 billion from the value of equities this week should barely raise an eyebrow. Personally I would have liked to have seen the streets flowing a little more red but I may get that wish on Monday. Beware of what one wishes for....it just might come true. Lost in all the hooplah over the manufactured debt ceiling crisis were the real issues that we are dealing with. Last quarter's revision of GDP was shocking.....down to 0.4% and this quarters GDP of 1.3% (also to be revised later) reflect a dying economy.

"Economic growth ... was much weaker than the government
had previously estimated and this opens the door for
potentially another round of quantitative easing from the
Federal Reserve," said Gary Thayer, chief macro strategist at
Wells Fargo Advisors in St. Louis. "Therefore, the bond market
responded positively to the weak GDP number while the dollar
weakened." The data showed the U.S. economy in greater danger of
dipping into another recession than many had thought. "The problem in the second quarter was very, very
restrained consumer spending," said Pierre Ellis, senior
economist at Decision Economics in New York. "A revival in
consumer spending is critical to keeping us out of recession.

Ok then what do we take away from this week's action. The economy is weakening but most of the peeps are having their attention focused by the MSM on the circus in D.C. ...... WHY? Several possible explanations. One that is obvious is the increase in the value of treasuries .....certainly beneficial for the holders of this debt. Particularly if you are wanting to exit these positions under cover of crisis. Turn up the noise and and pull out the chain saws. By the time the noise subsides a lot of bonds can be moved. Good things happen to those that make them happen.

It might work like this: Bloomberg reported that Mike Feroli, Chief Economist for JP Morgan Chase, who said that the Fed has a contingency plan (right there you had better stop) in case Congress doesn't act on the debt. It would allow "certain" banks and financial institutions to exchange their Treasuries for green Cash from the FED. My my my....how convenient.... Crisis=Premium Treasury prices=cash into selected Banks.....ouila.......QE 2.75..... get ready Freddy.....I smell MONEY!! Now guess where these selected banks are.....here is a hint....don't forget "contagion".

Of course this is only conjecture and one should not make trading decisions based on this but you might want to examine this over the weekend....enjoy your weekend See ya Sunday night after the weekend theatrics and the futures open.

YOU GOTTA BE KIDDIN' ME

2011-07-29T11:11:00.004-05:00

No not really.....as expected the Kabuki theater is playing out to the bitter end. The drama is killin' me. SHOCKING I TELL YOU!! Sorry...not really. Its funny... CNBS as predicted is an unabashed cheerleader for the debt ceiling increase. Their reporters slapping every "tea party" congressman for their "obstruction". I'm not going to belabor the pros and cons of either "side" except to say that CNBS should be ashamed of their unabashed biased "reporting". If it weren't so embematic of what is behind the decline of our empire...er...country then it would be comical.

Today changes none of my previous several days posts. Just keep your eye on the ball. this is manipulated panic to obtain several objectives. Notice how the disastrous GDP numbers have been lost in all the debt extension noise. Even though the GDP number was distrous its actually WORSE. Things are deteriorating again and the Kabuki theater makes our peeps believe their is a two way battle going on that is fighting for their interest. YOU REALLY DO believe it don't you. Admit it. You think that your side is really fighting for you in D.C. don't ya???

Watch your favs here. I actually bought some XLF today and added a few miners. Miners aren't even near oversold yet so be VERY careful buying them. I still have PLENTY of cash in case they drag them to the bottom of the BB's and stochs. On the run today and sorry for the late post. Seems like interest is waning too......so gl

PS......GDP of 1.3 now guarantees QE 3........gl

LISTEN TO THE BELOW VID.....

WE MUST DO SOMETHING!!!

2011-07-28T07:45:00.000-05:00

We must do it NOW! Okay dokay I guess I'm all in then lets raise that ceiling and get this show going. After all....this is SERIOUS. In fact to prove this is serious, just look what happened to Mr. Market. That was a FEARFUL sell-off yesterday. One for the ages. That type of fear just can't be manufactured by a few Algobots......can it? At least surely Mr. Market wasn't having it's "wanker" pulled ........was it? That of course would imply......manipulation??? That's tin foil stuff and we know that would imply that those crazy PPT theories about the President's Working Group manipulating the market were true. Of course that nonsense has been debunked so we can now trade our market unimpeded.

Targets today:

$HUI 552
ANV 36.50
SLW 36.60
SSRI 27.35
EXK 9.20
AG 21
RIC 7.60
HL 7.90
GPL 3.31

Several of these either hit targets from yesterday or they are still sitting near key buy areas. Don't go "all in" here but these could turn out to be nice entry areas if you have been out of the trade. These are trade areas if you have your core already but I am still holding a heavy cash position here with my EUO hedge. $XEU jumped back into its channel so I will hold on to the short.

I'd love to turn off the noise but I can't help it. Its pure entertainment now on the MSM. Like a bunch of hens trying to impress a new rooster I hear the cacophony of the reporters increasing daily with the inane cries for the "debt ceiling". What has our news cycle come to? The DEBT CEILING?? That's where we've come to? THAT'S the NEWS? Without boring you with what the real news is I believe the average ten year old could do better. Piper time kids......PIPER TIME!! You're gonna pay it.....one way or another. Play your games. Cry foul. Cry help. Cry bailout. You had your wars. You had your McMansions. You had your phony stock market runs. You had your cheap gas. Now your're gonna pay. COUNT ON IT! Oh BTW those that think granny is getting too much with Social Security and Medicare and needs to suffer too. Careful what you wish for. You just might get it in spades. gl

PREDATOR OR PREY??

2011-07-27T06:57:00.000-05:00

Are you the predator or the prey at this juncture? One thing is certain when you lean too heavy in this market you become the prey very quickly. We're overdue for some weak hands in the gold and silver trade to be loosened up so don't become the prey. Will it be a major shake out lasting almost 5 months like the most recent one. I doubt it. I am not a psychic but for now dips are to be bought and rips are....

$HUI showing overbought here caution advised...just remember it can get EVEN MORE overbought....Keep your eye on 552 for a touch and a buy of your picks. Its healthy for the miners to shake the tree here. So let's keep our buy fingers crossed. GDX on the 58 level also. Keep a lot of ammo in case they take it below the 50RSI. These are buy areas that I feel are short term (next few days reachable)....not stink bids....stink bids will be fine if you get lucky.

GPL 3.50
SLW 37
SSRI 28.60
EXK 10
AG 20.90-21.10
HL 8.10
ANV 37.50
RIC 7.75-8.0
GORO 25.25

If HERO doesn't catch a bid between here and 4.25 then its going to 3.65....ugghh. Watta market. I do own HERO here....at least for now.

GOLD and SILVER.....longer term turn off the noise. The troubles that have sent this to the position are not going to turn off. Short term you can hope they continue their consolidation but I think a new game is going on right now. We may get a shake out at these overbought levels but holding a core that you can be comfortable with getting a 10-15% beatdown is wise. Then add. $GOLD at 1550 is a wish list....

Silver....well thats an easy one..if it hits 39.10 I am buying.....since my core is too low there....but it is NOT THAT overbought yet so I may just be wishing....I am cautious and I want you to expect ANYTHING so always keep cash in case you do get the stink bid buys.

Oil and DTO...I will reiterate my hesitation to short oil....I've done it successfully three times in the last couple of weeks but the last DTO buy was a loser. They were all small trades and I won't buy any DTO unless it oil hits 102. AND it will be a small position. Like playing the nickel slots or the 5 dollar black jack table.

BTW if you believe this trade is in jeopardy longer term then explain how this type of news is going to get better....use your head...this is the game.

California Seeks $5B ’Bridge’ Loan to Pay Bills
By Michael B. Marois – Jul 25, 2011 9:00 PM MT

California will borrow $5 billion today through a temporary loan as U.S. states make plans to cope with any credit-market disruption should lawmakers fail to raise the federal debt ceiling by the Aug. 2 deadline.

Proceeds from California’s bridge loan will help pay bills until the state can sell cash-flow notes that had been scheduled for late August. New Mexico is asking agencies to complete requests for federal reimbursement by midday July 29 to ensure the it can get repaid, and Maryland was forced to cut $206 million off a planned bond sale as the debt talks dragged on.

“Given the uncertainty in Washington with the debt ceiling, the treasurer felt it was prudent to get a bridge loan,” said Tom Dresslar, a spokesman for California Treasurer Bill Lockyer. “We couldn’t have planned on the president and Congress taking us to the brink.”

States and local governments face higher borrowing costs if Congress fails to reach a compromise by the deadline. Because the U.S. borrows money through the sale of Treasury notes to pay its bills and refinance maturing debt, it could default if the limit isn’t increased. That might cost the government its top- ranked credit score, upend financial markets and send interest rates higher.

Moody’s Investors Service has said it may lower its top ratings on Maryland, South Carolina, New Mexico, Tennessee and Virginia because their dependence on federal revenue makes them vulnerable to a U.S. credit cut should talks to raise the debt limit fail.

Remember ......CONfidence is never retrieved by subterfuge and restoring the CON only. gl gang.

EXTEND AND PRETEND

2011-07-26T07:33:00.004-05:00

What other choice do you have when the other two or a rock and a hard place. You try to keep kicking the can down the road hoping that the next Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, and Albert Einstein can come together at Starbucks and PRESTO the next great thing is born. Otherwise you know what is hiding behind door number three. Sorry for the mixed metaphors but its very early here and being on the road makes my brain foggy. Markets are in stall mode now too and all we can do is wait while they play out the Kabuki theater on the Media Circus that formerly had some credibility but obviously none now. I guess the evening press conferences are simply designed to make the peeps believe there is actually something being done by the representatives in D.C.. Of course we know this has all been determined by their puppet masters long ago. There will be nothing that comes out of this charade or the Euro charade that alters the basic landscape of the looming tsunami. The only thing substantial that will be accomplished is the positioning of the "real money" for the coming deflationary cleansing.

Positioning is vital for the process. Pump and dump cycles require forethought and careful planning. Taking out key excesses and repositioning assets is not as simple for them as selling your condo and putting it in gold and farmland. When you have to reposition hundreds of billions it must be a little more carefully done. It requires TIME. Its called accumulation. Equities aren't the only asset that is accumulated. In this case entire countries and global currencies are being decided as this cycle ends. Control of course is the ultimate game here. Many peeps naively ask WHY would a "cabal" exist and what possibly could be their motivation to create such mayhem in the financial world and its markets? Its simple. Its control. Look only at your recent history. It is littered over just the last century with examples of incredible madmen and human suffering. One may argue and sometimes accurately that this hidden hand pulling the levers of power helped to create either directly or indirectly many of these monsters. We don't have the time to address that argument today but their CONTROL and ultimate defeat was always within the cabals power. Now it is even more easy for the cabal to address any monster that arises due to their CONTROL and influence.

My plan today is to accumulate some small ammount of miners that may pullback. I never add to positions in any great ammount on small movements and at such levels of the bollinger bands, stochastics, and RSI....I think short term we climb higher but they will take a shot at the PM complex when and if they announce this "deal". Its the game....and I want to be buying when they kick the complex into the mud and proclaim its a stupid trade. gl all. GPL EXK AG SSRI SLW PSLV RIC....etc.

NO BIG DEAL

2011-07-25T07:36:00.005-05:00

I'm feeling less scared today. It looks like "investors" are stepping back into equities and "stabilizing" the sell-off overnite. Well.....maybe. Let's see what happens today. In reality nothing will be settled. We'll only have another piece of gum put into the leaking dam when everything is said and done. First of all the pols are talking in terms of TEN YEARS. So whether you hear a "Three Trillion" cut or a "One Trillion cut...you have to put it in context. They are talking over TEN YEARS . That won't even come close to addressing the problem. Our YEARLY deficit is well over a TRILLION. So while we are cutting one or three trillion over the span of ten years we will ANOTHER 12 TRILLION F@#$!N dollars to the debt. This is not sustainable. So yes we are in a Kabuki theater moment. Its all a joke.

What will happen? What can we do to trade this. Well understand that unless the Fed wants to pull the plug and put us in depression this year.....we already are....but I mean a much deeper PAIN depression then we will have to have MO MONEY. MO MONEY MO MONEY....M2 money supply is rising quite dramatically over the last 2 weeks and this is real money so be aware, the Fed IS in there plugging the leaks RIGHT NOW.

I'm looking at overbought short term miners and gold. Can they get more overbought? YES YES YES. Just be aware. Everyone points to 1650 on gold so I look for a fight in this area. We will certainly get an attempt to take gold down when the "deal" is announced. We have a different issue with the miners. They are being driven by the boyz now and they can get a LOT further overbought......so be aware. We are in and inverse HnS on the miners $HUI and I have a lot further target to go. I still think we see 58 on SLW in the next few months. I don't own it right here. There are a basket of these to play GPL EXK SSRI HL ANV GFI EGO GORO AG

From Jesse's today USD LOOK AT THIS

ITS ALMOST TIME

2011-07-24T13:58:00.002-05:00

The markets could turn tumultuous if a plan isn’t negotiated over the weekend, said Christian Cooper, head of U.S. dollar derivatives trading in New York at Jefferies & Co.

WASHINGTON (AP) — With the clock ticking ever louder, Obama administration officials and congressional Republicans clashed anew Sunday over extending the nation's debt limit, with the White House threatening a veto if the government's borrowing authority is not extended through the next elections.

WASHINGTON WSJ—Congressional leaders didn't have a deal to cut the budget deficit and raise the government's debt limit early Sunday and remained at an impasse over how to reach one just hours before the open of Asian financial markets.

"It remains an uncertain situation," Mr. Daley said in the CBS interview. "We may have a few stressful days coming up—and stressful for the markets of the world and the American people. But in the end there's no question in my mind the government of America will not default."

"If next week drags on with no apparent progress, the markets would likely become increasingly nervous as time passed," said James DeMasi, chief fixed-income strategist at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. in Baltimore. "But at the beginning of the week, I expect the U.S. government will still be given the benefit of the doubt by investors."

Bond investors still appear to believe a deal will be inked, but others are bracing for volatile markets if the weekend's negotiations don't produce results. Gold prices are starting to react. Uncertainty surrounding the U.S. debt talks is one of the main factors that propelled gold to new record highs recently above $1,600 an ounce.

Kentucky.com...
Congressional and Obama administration officials are hoping to announce a framework for an agreement by 4 p.m. EDT Sunday, and House Republicans planned a members-only conference call for shortly after that. That is before the Asian financial markets open, and lawmakers want to avoid producing bad news that could push those markets down and worry American investors as well.

President Obama ended his Friday speech with an admonition to get the deal done before the Asian markets opened on Sunday.

Okay.......I get it.....or do I? Sometimes it all seems a little too easy doesn't it. The deal WILL get done but the consensus appears that its obvious they are going to announce "some" type of deal on Sunday. Well let's see what happens. It would be interesting if they use this expectation to give us a REAL KABUKI Theater event like the TARP initial vote failure. So stay tuned tonight for the fireworks. I really don't care except if they faill and panic sets in you may get a buy......or a sell hehehe. If they succeed and sell gold and silver you may get a buy.....either way we are setting up for trades gang.

THIS IS SERIOUS!

2011-07-23T08:39:00.003-05:00

I mean it? Really Really SERIOUS! Stop laughing at me. I'm REALLY REALLY mad. I'm not going to budge or sell out my principles. So TAKE THAT! Just to prove I'm serious all of this theater is going to happen over the WEEKEND.....after the stock market closed and before it opens.

Ok Ok enough sarcasm. Apparently our "leaders" have staged a last minute weekend play for the peeps and the MSM to portray them as "adversaries". Look gang, my cynicism has no bounds with these people. The world is literally blowing up around us and they are engaging in this macabre game of faux chess. Its just too much. There are now millions of people suffering in this country alone from the strain on this system with the STRUCTURAL BREAKDOWN of the faux economy we've had the last 30 years. You say faux economy???? FAUX??? Yes an economy that was being structurally destroyed as trade imbalances developed as corporations moved their manufacturing jobs overseas year by year as politicians proclaimed the trade agreements would benefit all of us. Now here is the kicker. While they pulled this multi-decade scam off they needed to create jobs in a sector that could provide a MASSIVE number of jobs to these manufacturing workers. There were basically three sectors created. Defense and Military, Home building sector, and Retail. These areas required money to go into these sectors and that money creation was pure brilliance. So diabolical that even Bernie Madoff looks like a piker.

Trillions of money needed to be created and we used the Housing sector. We all know that the bulk of derivatives were created off of the mortgage debt. A trillion or so in new mortgages were bundled, chopped, diced, and leveraged up to a few HUNDRED TRILLION in derivatives. Then the fun started. Then a game of hot potato ensued until the music stopped. You know the story. However a lot of people are now in the position of believing all we need to do is turn the spigot back on and ouila the game is back on. Sorry this is STRUCTURAL. ALL of those jobs are in China, Mexico, etc. They aren't coming back. ALL of those Home building/mortgage/real estate/commercial Re/ jobs are GONE.....they aren't coming back. Not only that there is another wave about to hit the retail sector and banking sector. THIS is STRUCTURAL.

So enjoy the Faux Theater in D.C. this weekend. As Red says its Kabuki.

Here is a clip below from Marti that deserves a read.....how true

Quotes from Martin Armstrong's "The Sovereign Debt Crisis We Print Bonds Not Money "

The war in Afghanistan cost over $1 trillion. When Ronald Reagan came to office, the National Debt was $1 trillion and that represented two World Wars, Korea, Vietnam, and all the social programs of the New Deal. Politicians spend as they like, take no responsibility, and then want to pass the bill to the people. Is that fair? Where is there any democratic process in this decision? We vote on nothing and the elected representative is subject to lobbyists and party bosses who dictate what they shall vote on if they want party support for the next election.

This sovereign debt crisis has been metastasizing in Europe for the last 15 months ever since the Pi Cycle hit on April 15th, 2010 (2007.15 + 3.14 = 2010.291). The Greek riots began right on cue.

Yes, Greece and France will put up more cash to bailout Greece and this is much like sucking the poison out of a friend from a king brown snake that will succeed in only killing you both.

Until we begin to face up to the fact that we are debt junkies and unless we revise the world monetary system, all we are doing is destroying the strong to help the weak. They never heard of reform. The system is BROKE!

We are addicted to debt and the Primary Dealers are keeping it going.

This whole problem of DEBT stems from the insane proposition that it is LESS inflationary to BORROW rather than to PRINT money. Had we printed the past 30 years instead of borrowing, the debt would be about one-third of what it is today. We live on a credit card and we are using the credit card to also pay the interest without ever making a payment.

You have to understand the political game at foot. You can point to something and say Mr. Politician if you don’t do this NOW, 1,000 people will die next year. Unless there is personal gain out of acting, they will let those people die.

But we have not changed the nature of the beast. We are throwing a sheet over the 800 pound gorilla, but he will figure out how to pull it off soon enough.

The fed ended the $900 billion in their QE2 program but it will embark on a new plan. It has to.

Public government is in a downward spiral and the low does not appear to be due until 2020.

You can chop every program and people will starve on the streets. But guess what! The debt will keep growing until you stop this insane game of borrowing perpetually.

A financial crisis is certainly looming on the horizon. What we undoubtedly face is the continuation of the Sovereign Debt Crisis that is truly an ongoing CONTAGION.

Did anyone notice ALL government have the same debt problem? That means we are dealing with a STRUCTURAL PROBLEM on a global scale!

The SYSTEM of debt is collapsing. This is not unique to any one country, for everyone is going down the drain. We are NOT printing money! It is much worse.

Source: http://www.martinarmstrong.org...

YOU CAN'T QUIT NOW

2011-07-22T00:01:00.003-05:00

Too late Ben. You went down this road as predicted three years ago and now you are in the NO TURN LANE with the Semi bearing down on you. Maybe this works for awhile but the ultimate collision of the immoveable object approaches with every passing day. Can you change the equation of E=MC2? Can you make 2+2=5? These are forces that are law. These are laws of nature. Your wife runs up 200K on ten credit cards on you family income of 50K/yr. You have a problem. Presto....problem solved you find another credit card for 20K and you are good to go. You're still driving the 5 Series BMW and still living in the 400K full mortgaged house now worth 250K (provided you can even get an offer). You've kicked the can for another few months and all is good. Unfortunately you will only be in debt an additional 20K in a few months and you will be trying to find another credit card. Its fairly simple. You keep buying those scratch cards everyday for two months hoping to hit that jackpot. Unfortunately this is analagous to what is happening with our current world financial system. Burdened by debt that can never be paid back without a catastrophic default of most of the developed world, plunging us into the abyss of deflation and ruinous GDP collapse. It's simple math its the law of nature and it will be obeyed. It will not be denied, but it will be fought, and it will be stretched to the maximum by the Bernank. HE is the operative for the true power that is navigating this treacherous predicament.

This has been decades in development. Can we escape without some catastrophic conflagration that reduces continents to rubble? Of course we can. Unfortunately the risk of such a Supercycle event does rise astronomically with extreme imbalances. That is one of the tight ropes that the Bernank is trying to walk. The corporate/banker elite are trying to maintain power and control over entire continents while the land the deflationary 747 on an aircraft carrier without a complete crash. Every trick in the book is being implemented including trying to cheat at math. That is why transparency is being tossed out the window. The irony of it all is that trust is essential to healing this crisis. I have mentioned the restoration of CONfidence to make the system work again. CONfidence in our leaders and institutions to do the "right thing" for the good and benefit of the MOST people. Unfortunately the first casualty of the course they embarked on was the TRUTH. Once the informed segment of the masses saw this the grift was in jeopardy as word was spread through different mediums that never existed during the last Great Depression.

Its been an interesting journey to date and my guess is we are still in the very early stages of the ultimate end game. We probably haven't even seen the phoenix that will hopefully rise out of the ashes. Its the ashes part that I worry about but time will tell whether they are figurative ashes or not.

Greek default will be disastrous for the bankers make no mistake and it will be fought to the end. The $XEU touched 144 we could start seeing some interesting Euro moves over the next few weeks. Wait till they realize the implications of a structured default in SPAIN or ITALY ....oooooboy. RISK TRADE ON!......hehehee yeh right. QE on that is for sure.......but when....that is the question. I still like the miners this year. Near term oil may touch 102.5 for a DTO trade. And I still think we are going to get a chance to play another pump of equities. Let's see what Ben can do. gl

Rogers on the dollar here...

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=9c991fe0-da07-4b5c-85e7-357d3a84e845

PARADISE THREATENED

2011-07-21T06:30:00.002-05:00

Of course there is always the calm before the storm. We've often talked about how relatively benign our medicine has been after the 2008 Crash. Actually it has been a monstrous Bull Market. At least for the ones out there that have equities. Many were left in a pile of dust in early 09 and elected to sit out the Great Casino. That CONfidence will NOT be restored anytime soon. Fool me once shame on you....fool me twice shame on me. Mom and Pop have seen this movie one too many times and know that this is not their daddy's market. These are end-o-days times. We're trying to restore CONfidence to the masses and trying to keep a hundred leaks a week from breaking the dam. Can anyone possibly heal these type of wounds? Not likely.

So how do you play it? NO ONE can guarantee anything in this game but there are some probabilities. One probability that is high is further disruptions and fear increasing. Unless we get a complete crash from a black swan then a series of crisis that are continually being managed will occur. This plays into the fear trade and precious metals. In spite of the efforts of the Central banks to suppress these headline prices on Gold and silver (to protect their fiat confidence) the buyers will continue to gravitate to this safety trade. Miners are a leveraged trade on the metals. IF and its a big IF I am right the miners trade has gone through a significant accumulation phase and is now ready for its next leg up which should be amazing this year. Monetization will continue to try and stem the debt implosion but this is increasingly apparent to many to be only a temporizing measure. So rather than publicize these efforts they will attempt to be more surrepticious until it becomes necessary to proclaim the QE of all QEs will be unleashed. This will have to happen but only after the market AND ECONOMY begin to show the next deflationary cracks. I don't wish for this so save you sighs. There just isn't any other probabilities.....Possibilities?? YES. Probabilities?? NO.

My miner trade is still my focus but the casino is still open just be careful all.

KONDRATIEV WAR?

2011-07-20T00:11:00.004-05:00

Can the unthinkable happen. Predictions by many experts within the budget sphere of DC have said that we will have to cut the military budget. In fact on this forum I have brought this very issue up on many occaisions trying to illustrate the large proportion of the budget's "discretionary" spending that the Military Industrial Complex compiles. This seems on the surface to be the most likely area that we must begin to reduce. BUT IS IT? It isn't even mentioned in most public debates or on the mainstream media. It is as if it is untouchable.

We have systematically looted our manufacturing base for over 30 years by our current trade policies and are looking down the barrel of a AK47 in almost any direction we turn now to cure our current structural economic ills. Many Americans that follow this believe that we can "fix" our current dilemna by simply balancing our budget....or stopping spending...or not taxing our "job creators"...etc etc etc.

I have also alluded to the importance that the Military Industrial Complex plays in providing a component of manufacturing in a destroyed economy that at this juncture remains paradoxically vital to keeping us from the abyss of depression. Even though this area of our manufacturing economy is highly counterproductive to the long term well-being of a citizenry and healthy economy. Of course a powerfully entrenched lobby has complete and utter control of the politicians when it comes to this industry. So you can forget about it being touched.

What next? Well......now we get to the GRAND SUPERCYCLE and its risks. Could we get the unthinkable? A well-known member of our forum has said unequically no but an ex-CIA (there is no such thing) operative named Robert Baer (George Clooney's character in Syriana) says we might. In fact Baer is sounding some ominous warning bells.

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/07/201171775828434786.html

Baer claims the Netanyahu is preparing to hit Iran in September. Make no mistake, unless our Military can convince the administration to stop him it will happen. Netanyahu is under intense pressure from within his own security apparatus.Baer was especially impressed by the unprecedented warning about Netanyahu's plans by former Mossad chief Meir Dagan. Dagan left the Israeli intelligence agency in September 2010. Two months ago, he predicted that Israel would attack and said that doing so would be "the stupidest thing" he could imagine. According to Haaretz:

When asked about what would happen in the aftermath of an Israeli attack Dagan said that: "It will be followed by a war with Iran. It is the kind of thing where we know how it starts, but not how it will end."

The Iranians have the capability to fire rockets at Israel for a period of months, and Hizbollah could fire tens of thousands of grad rockets and hundreds of long-range missiles, he said.
According to Ben Caspit of the Israeli daily Maariv, Dagan's blasts at Israel's political leadership are significant not only because Mossad chiefs, in office or retired, traditionally have kept their lips sealed, but also because Dagan is very conservative on security matters.
Caspit writes that Dagan is "one of the most rightwing militant people ever born here. ... When this man says that the leadership has no vision and is irresponsible, we should stop sleeping soundly at night".
Dagan describes the current Israeli government as "dangerous and irresponsible" and views speaking out against Netanyahu as his patriotic duty.

There would be global repercussions that are potentially catastrophic for our military and Israel. I think this is saber rattling. I repeat I believe this is saber rattling but the reason I bring this up is the source and the fact it would most certainly get Obama reelected. Then you have this little tidbit arising that gives the entire story plausability.....Iran forming an Oil Bourse backed by China and others...
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/183031/20110719/iran-opens-oil-bourse-harbinger-of-trouble-for-new-york-and-london.htm

Market play:

We are currently in a takedown of the miners to shakeout the new weak longs. I'll provide what I think are key buy points. on SLW 33.80. look for an intraday tail on EXK within the next 7 trading days to pick up at 8.98....ANV watch a tail touch of sub 35...AG tail touch sub 21. GPL 3.38... SSRI tail touch sub 27. These are my suggestions for your buys. If they play the flush game these areas should be perfect for the flush. Here is the caveate....if you don't have a good core left then take weakness during the next two days to reestablish a position in your favs. We may only get a one or two day takedown.....also a HIGH probablility. My core is very small here and I will add some of these on weakness before the wish list numbers are achieved as I did today. Caution as always and remember CASH is king in this chop shop.

from goldseek today

does the HUI BELOW look like a bubble????????????

bottom chart is off turds commentors

TOTO I'M SCARED

2011-07-19T00:06:00.005-05:00

Maybe we are pretending that we are still in Kansas but we are not even close anymore. We crossed that line a long time ago. After 2008 a new paradigm had to be born and the choices were bad and very bad. Time may tell which one was chosen or it may always be debated just as the choices during the Great Depression are still debated today. I am not going to pretend that I have the answers but there are certain facts that are self-evident. There is a major loss of CONfidence that is ebbing with every manipulative lie that leaks into the daily conscience of the American People. I use "American People" because the rest of the world at least until now was much better informed than our public was on how the international banking cartel ruled the world. Unfortunately its a little late for us to do a lot about the destruction of the rules and regulations that got us to this destructive part of our young democracy. We are most likely in the end-o-days for many of the excesses that we have enjoyed for decades. Our consumption of 25% of the world's yearly oil usage must and will come to an end. The wars and global manipulation to keep the prices here cheap will be changing out of necessity during the next decades. This will most likely be positive as it forces us to adapt to newer technologies using renewable sources of energy including conservation measures that were always available. These are nature's ways of mandating change.

Unfortunately there are still humans at the helm of this great ship and that always means that the changes will be unpredictable in their implementation. So don't expect a smooth transition to the land of OZ. It could be a bumpy ride. The old standards are not going to go without a fight. Large fossil fuel oil corporations have a strangle-hold on the politicians and that usually means that nature has to over-ride some fairly strong resistance. It will. Unfortunately for us that may come with a degree of strife. As the deflationary wave sets in across the global landscape one of the first elements that will be effected is energy consumption. You are already seeing the effects in the Middle East. The uprisings across the region now are economic in origin and they are going to only worsen as the Grand Supercycle flattens the region. Since the region has always been on the brink of disaster it shouldn't be much longer before one or more of these social media revolutions spills over into some super power conflicts. After all these countries are proxies for the super powers as they jockey for the ultimate blood of power that flows through this region. For years now we've controlled virtually every government in that region. It has come at a heavy price for our reputation within the region. None of the parties involved trust us any longer and the tenuous balance of power is only one nuke away from chaos.

I have a feeling the match that starts the fire will come from this region. We are in a precarious economic position and nothing galvanizes power in stressed populations than a major outbreak of hostilities and the resultant nationalism. A lot of political ills can be cured. Full employment is certainly a by-product.

Hopefully we dodge the ultimate exchange but eventually the piper is going to have to be paid for years of excesses and this Super-Cycle will not be denied.

I think what makes me feel uncomfortable with out current outlook is how easily manipulated the uninformed/misinformed public here is. The steady diet of news on the Royal couple and the Casey Anthony story dominate the news and perform a lobotomy on the masses. So escaping the ultimate cleaning will probably not be possible.

For the doubters on how Gold and Silver will perform just look what turmoil, doubt, and fear are doing to the trade now. I still like the miners for the rest of the year but I intend to try and trade them. As usual I cannot close without mentioning the EURO currency. Its on the edge and its about to fall. Enjoy the day. gl to all.

ITS ALL ABOUT THE BANKS

2011-07-18T02:31:00.003-05:00

Overnite cries of Eurobank crisis have roiled the markets and pushed gold and silver higher. Gold just crossed the magical $1600 dollar mark in overseas trading. Oh the horror of it all as fear permeates the safe haven trade. Don't worry though. The rabbits will start to come out before the U.S. markets open and hope will be restored......or it won't. At least for awhile. Nice way to keep the rates low on its own treasuries as the bond vigilantes attack the Eurozone. Maybe Ben feels this could work for us...at least for awhile. One thing is certain the EUR/USD trade feels very weak right now. I hope you have a lot of EUO for the ride down.

Ben has a problem right now as he walks the proverbial tightrope over the alligators. They are waiting for the slip and they want to tear some fresh meat apart. World liquidity is in such a fragile condition now that if Ben hits the commods with another phoney corn report or another margin raise you could see some serious liquidity issues start in with the cascade of calls.

I don't like this one bit. I'm getting scared (actually it is a little frightening), but if we get the predicted breakdown with some nice fear we could get another reboot to buy the miners on a pullback. Right now we have the $HUI forming a nice breakout of resistance so just let your core ride. We aren't overbought yet and the miners should chase gold to the 1700 level.

Whatever happens this week it promises to be a thrill. Lets enjoy the trade and I hope all of you are getting a good nights rest and will be drinking your coffee while you watch the mornings fireworks. PSLV PHYS is still in play this year. gl all and I hope Ben gets across the river. I'm pullin' for him.

THE FACE OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION

2011-07-16T08:10:00.006-05:00

You are allowed to call it a recession. You are allowed to call this a recovery. You may want to even call this prosperity. Maybe a "buying opportunity" would be your cup of tea. But for tens of millions of Americans and hundreds of millions worldwide this is a Depression. NO Jobs and crushing prices of essentials like food and medical services are beginning to take their toll. I realize that you don't want to hear doom and gloom but this is the reality of bad choices made decades ago for the benefit of a few.......the "job creators". You know which ones I am talking about. The people that are in charge of small businesses.......hehehe. Right.......sure. This entire crises has NOTHING to do with small businesses and EVERYTHING to do with the preservation of control by the Large corporate oligarchy. It has been a sytematic plundering of this country's treasury and future by a handful of corporations for the benefit of a few. When its over and it is over.....we will no longer be the empire of the world with 800 military bases in over 125 countries. We will no longer be the enforcing arm that runs the world for the international cartel. They will have moved on to a group of governments where less emphasis is placed on an aging small population like the United States. We will be relagated to the proverbial scrap heap of ex-empires like Greece, Rome, Spain, France, and England.

I remember watching the transformation of this country in the 80s as we shifted into this last phase of the Grand Supercycle. Suddenly I began to notice incredible shifts in the balance of compensation in our large corporation CEOs. We had always had the creation of incredible wealth with idividual creativity and innovation. But in the 80s a new breed began to come to the fore...the corporate pirate ...and they were quite public in accepting their laurels. They would gain control of a corporation had been in existence for generations. There were actual playbooks created with consultants that were hired to assist the CEOs. Their compensations climbed exponentially from about 20:1 to their average company worker to a peak in the mid 2005 of about 350:1. Some companies obviously were well over 2000:1.

In the late 80s I remember watching the financial media applaud the announcement of Michael Eisner's compensation at Disney. He began to take hundreds of millions out of the company. I was stunned that in the 80s after coming out of the pain of the 70s and early 80s a man that had taken over a beacon of entertainment and creativity that had started in the Great Depression of the 30s could be taking that much capital out of a company that he had nothing to do with for most of the company's existence. I remember the avuncular Walt Disney's soothing voice on Sunday nights introducing his latest show and/or development. I was now looking at a different breed of animal. The corporate carnivore. A natural evolution? Perhaps. But it was telling me that a storm was on the horizon. It wouldn't be long either. Soon this playbook of systematic corporate raiding spread across the entire corporate structure. All of the boardrooms were stacked.......and the game was over for the stockholders.

The late 90s and 2000s were just a matter of creating enough liquidity to keep the game going. They did this through the creation of derivatives and almost wholly ran them off of real estate. It provided the last gasp for a dying economy with jobs and fast cash for a collapsing manufacturing infrastructure that was being sold overseas...mostly to China. Once the plundering of the factory base was accomplished and 5000 mergers and aquisitions had been completed.....the ponzi was through and thousands of Michael Eisners had been created. Our three branches of government had been totally coopted and the game was over.

Now the structural disaster created is apparent in all of its splendor. NO jobs....NO factories...No educational system....just DEBT. The party is over and now the bill comes. The five active wars we are fighting right now that continue to drain your treasury aren't even on the table right now with the "press" or the politicians. So you see.....this Depression is in its infancy. The five steps of dying by Kubler Ross are still in step 1.........DENIAL. gl I hope Walt Disney is rolling over in his grave.

from metals rport

BEHOLD A RED DRAGON

2011-07-15T07:42:00.002-05:00

And the beast was hungry. It was going to be satiated and its sumptuous feast was to be eaten before August 2. Sometime in the next few weeks we will be getting a tradeable bottom. Start getting your speculative list ready. The beast must be fed and Ben will have to gun the risk trade. I still like the miners and PMs but from a speculative standpoint the Chinese market looks very tasty at the current levels as funny money will have to enter back into their powerhouse. SCEI is worth a look here for a stretch. It operates as a third party commercial producer and distributor of coal-water slurry fuel (CWSF) in the People’s Republic of China. The company’s CWSF products are primarily used in boilers and furnaces to generate steam and heat for residential and industrial applications. It sells its products directly to various customers, including industrial, commercial, residential, and government organizations.

Another destroyed Chinese stock for a look-see is JASO. It engages in the design, development, manufacture, and sale of photovoltaic solar cells and solar products, which convert sunlight into electricity in the People's Republic of China. The company’s principal products include monocrystalline and multicrystalline solar cells, as well as various solar modules. It also provides silicon wafer and solar cell processing services. This sector is destroyed and blood is in the water. STP is another solar casualty that we've played before and remains in a pool of blood.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/07/13/whats-up-with-solar.aspx

BCON is a little closer to home (USA) and may be worth a sniff. It's a tiny company that is involved in storing energy for solar and wind systems. Beacon Power Corporation, a development stage company, engages in the development and commercialization of flywheel energy storage systems to supply frequency regulation services to the electricity grid in North America. Its flywheel technology stores and recycles energy on an emissions-free basis; and provides frequency regulation and energy balancing services for the electricity grid, utilities, and distributed generation and renewable energy markets.

These are to be looked at as high risk and do your own DD. I own NONE of these at the time of this post. I plan on taking small positions only. My attention is still on the miners and their trade. Keep your cash high again here but nibble on pullbacks for trades. SSRI SLW EXK AG if you get the chance. gl

LET'S WORK TOGETHER

2011-07-14T07:10:00.006-05:00

"When we remember we are all mad, the mysteries disappear and life stands explained."
Mark Twain

This is all very serious business we are engaged in. We are on the verge of a precipice. Things can get very bad very quick. I won't be responsible for what happens next. What occurs next will be worse than what happened before. OK OK that's enough nonsense. Its all nonsense. That is my point. Its all for your public consumption. These men that we wasted a couple of our hours voting for last November meet daily to receive their talking points from their staffs and promptly walk out into the cameras to spew whatever they were programmed to say.

From the very beginning this entire process was decided. There will be a debt limit increase. Of course first there has to be an appearance of two sides. Remember. Republipuke and Demidumb. Right and left. Conservative and liberal. You know. You hate one of them. How can you forget? That's right. You hate um. Remember that when your side slips it in the back door maybe it won't feel so bad. Seriously....that's how it works. Its a slight of hand and it works everytime on you. Its just that you still haven't figured it out. After they are through with you they sit around and smoke cigarettes and drink good bourbon while they smile knowingly at how easy it was. Sure sports fans there is a handicap on whether the debt ceiling is not raised. 1 in 1 million. Of course the media is constantly monitoring this historic vote. They know how "important" the outcome is.

Ultimately economic forces will decide the outcome of this entire farce. We will monetize and monetize and monetize........and it will fail. We will endure in the near term some very painful stagflation. Of course they will pull every trick they can to control the prices of these essential commodities but these tricks will fail also. Watch how quickly they begin to fail when they are used. Raising margins on the commods are having less and less impact. The last oil reserves move was so pathetic they may not even try it again. We're in trouble as a country. There is a part of me that feels like the two guys in the picture. I protested those two unnecessary wars. I knew they were fraudulent. They had NOTHING to do with 9/11....but the masses cheered. Why should I have to take a social security cut? Why should I have to take a medicare cut? Wait until tens of millions are faced with these ACTUAL CHOICES. Its coming. You really don't believe it.....but you're going to be faced with NO CHOICES. It will be imposed.

The Casino is open. The lights are on. As discussed before the boyz wanted you out of the PM trade. As usual they extended the chop until you folded your table and took your chips off the table. Thats the game. Now they are taking it up. HL GPL still cheap. Have fun. gl

WALKING THE FINE LINE

2011-07-13T07:33:00.005-05:00

What does Ben have to do to maintain a Ponzi scheme? Everyday he has to check to see which country just blew up due to his imported stagflation in food and essential prices. Especially food. In many countries half of the family income goes to food. There is no room to spare if the price of a a staple like rice shoots up 50%. Instantaneously they are unable to support their family with the necessary calories. They aren't provided with food stamps in many of these countries. Without a currency the vendors will simply not deliver. Pressures on the government to provide basic sustinence without having a printing press will become unmanageable. A feedback cycle of political unrest with public disatisfaction will acccelerate. Ben knows this is his limiting factor with his monetization and he knows that his game is playing out into the late innings now.

Look at gold and silver today. They are blinking yellow for the game. The interesting numbers are on oil. Notice that the input costs of oil are devastating for all aspects of the costs of essentials. So as much as the ponzimasters hate gold and silver exposing their flanks....oil gives them the actual knife to the throat. If they can tip toe through the oil spike and levitate the market (CONfidence) then they can fulfill keeping the game alive this year until bonus season is achieved. Many posters on message boards gleefully proclaim they want to see the market collapse to virtually zero. You had better hope this entire game does not crash. Reality will be a much more sober experience than you can imagine. Most of you are not prepared for the reality this would impose. gl

WE'VE BEEN SAVED......AGAIN

2011-07-12T07:08:00.003-05:00

With futures dipping to a low of down 168 early this morning and the EURO crashing a rabbit had to be pulled so ouila the ECB begins to buy bonds?? Did I hear that right? Well did they really?? HA! Don't bet on it. But it put a stop to the slide momentarily. Futures rebounded and the EURO stabilized. Yup.....that's the market you're in now. Driven my rumor and fear. Get ready to trade the volatility for awhile. At least until the be enchilada is brought in by Uncle Ben. You know what I'm talking about.......QE3. We need it. We want it. We are free marketeers.

The desperate attempts to keep this game alive is gaining a life of its own. The life blood of any financial ponzi is its liquidity and right now they are scrambling as the CONfidence is being sucked right out of the system. The talking heads are racing to put the best face forward on this to keep this blood flowing but the contagian is starting to overwhelm the lies.

How long have we got? I still maintain they have plenty of rabbits. Short and Inermediate term the EURO looks weak. I think we see 130 break on the EURO this summer and maybe 120 before they hold it. EUO makes a nice bet still.

Look for some bounces to play today ......energy is due. This is end-o-days stuff gang. Its not gonna get any better for a long time.

WINTER'S COMING

2011-07-11T06:59:00.001-05:00

Kondratieff Winter....K Wave .......Kress Cycle....P3......Megasupercycle deflationary wave. You name it whatever you like. It's essentially an imbalance of debt of historic proportions that has developed and its ultimate outcome is already written in economic stone. It wants your blood. It wants a lot of blood. Its a virtual growing parasitic organism that has grown on the corpse of the world's free world. It is a parasite so it does not want to kill its host so its attempting to adapt and maintain the heart of its host to continue to pump its precious blood. Unfortunately the host is on its last leg and the revelations in Italy over the increase in its debt rates is putting an additional strain on the patient. Of course death can be postponed with more transfusions and I have no doubt this will occur. But with the current Kabuki theater going on in Congress in the U.S. it may behoove the PTB to inject a little fear and dollar strengthening in the near term. Gold may continue to move up even though the dollar strengthens which occurred during a similar fear move last year during the Eurozone disruptions. We're getting late in this game gang and the ponzi is encountering increasing difficulty with sentiment. You can push many aspects of their measurements by manipulations but ultimately a stalemate is being reached in this long in the tooth game. Jobs are rolling over. CONfidence is rolling with it. Without confidence you have NOTHING. All of you be careful, we are entering into a zone that can get very volatile quickly. I still like EUO and gold. But this too can roll over. Enjoy the week it should be another week to trade.

Obama is going to get the extension of the debt limit.....MAKE NO MISTAKE. This will goose the market and Precious metals. A little fear will give the pols some cover. The republipukes are NOT going to stand in the way. Its all kabuki theater. You wanna see instant depression just pull the "There will be no extension of the debt level". hahahaha...... Seriously? Who do you think pulls that string. Not those two bit graft artists. gl all....watch Europe though.....that is going to keep things nervous

WE'VE GOT SOME JOBS

2011-07-09T09:06:00.002-05:00

I have a feeling that there may be a couple of problems ahead for "the plan". First, there is NO plan. Second there is no plan. So what is going to happen? Well I think that we are about to experience a complete and utter collapse. That is usually what happens when a bus full of gasoline is rolling down a road and about to go off a cliff. What else can you call it? THERE ARE NO JOBS. THERE WILL BE NO JOBS. Remember when Madoff was discovered to be a ponzi. On the message boards the first questions asked by many people were "Where is the money?" No one could comprehend that a 56 Billion dollar fund had NO MONEY. They thought he had hid most of it. They could not comprehend the simplicity of the math of a ponzi and how it WORKS. You see.....things that appear very complex to the outside world of a ponzi are usually relatively elemental. Its just simple math..... There was ZERO money. NADA! NONE! Bernie simply maintained his vast yearly returns by paying out to the "lucky" ones that redeemed before the unlucky lower bigger part of his pyramid.....until he ran out of money.

This is where we are today. We've run out of time on the ponzi. We've milked the capital from the world until the debt has reached a state that we can't pay out anymore interest on it. We are just in the process of letting the bankers pick the carcasses of the rotting carrion. No one can make a move for fear the music will stop again and they will lose their seat. The banks.....big...small....medium...all refuse to lend any money that isn't virtually guaranteed because they know the music is about to stop. They know the bus is running again towards the cliff. The big investment banks are still playing their games as fast as possible until the music finally quits. Hell.....they would front run their grandmas right now for a sawbuck. The promised transparency and restored confidence never came. The investment community is locked and loaded all right, but the gun is aimed at their own head. Its just a matter of time and this whole enchilada blows. Even Joe Blow on the street senses the whole charade is nearing the end. You can't put this genie back in, but they're gonna pretend to keep trying however.

The job losses are structural. You've read that here as long as two years ago...now you are hearing it more an more in the mainstream media. Sturctural job losses cannot be repaired by monetization of the debt. Structural job losses as an example are the millions of jobs in construction created by hot money ginning up phony high home prices and mortgage fraud. This entire scheme was conducted with the government aiding and abetting the industry sector and the bankers financing it. It will NOT be coming back for decades. There were millions of jobs created without any educational backround in this sector. They are gone. Meanwhile self sustaining industries were allowed to be shipped factory by factory durning those housing boom years to other countries. THEY are gone. THAT is structural. The skilled workers in those industries are gone. They are in aisle 2 at Home Depot. They are now 53 y/o and don't even know how to use a digital tool and dye machine.

Didn't you wonder when the CNBS talking heads bragged in the boom boom years about how the weighting of the financials in the SnP was over 40% that something was desperately wrong with our country? Seriously?? 40% of the SnP was FINANCIALS! That had to send alarm bells off that we were dying as a country.....but it didn't. No one even blinked.

Its going to take a much longer time with a true cleaning and reset of government policy and a restoration of CONFIDENCE. REAL CONFIDENCE. That is only brought about by a country that is governed by its people. Not a facade of corporatocracy/fascism. This will have to happen and it will take years for this trust to be restored. Sometimes we have to hit bottom to see the light and I am afraid we are going to be doing just that. One way or another this mess will have to be cleaned up. How and when it takes place is up for debate but one way or another the can kicking is going to get harder and harder. Ladies and gents you are witnessing history and the "old way" of "fixing" the game is about to meet a cleaner. gl this weekend

I'M STUNNED!

2011-07-08T07:38:00.005-05:00

The most common quote on the Squawk Box panel after the Job's report. All of our Fed pollyanna panelist were stunned when the 18000 number was announced. Not only this number but the downgrades to previous months were also slipped in. Yes Houston we have a problem. Of course "doom and gloomers" have been castigated for saying that "things are bad" and "getting worse" for quite sometime. Even though many/most data points have supported this....the market has risen. These type of numbers are hard to rip into a positive especially after a 1000 pt DOW straight up move. At least now you can understand why the market was moved up prior to these numbers. The question is WHAT NEXT? Are we back on the big slide down to retest lows? Should you be on the short bus for the cashola? Gold and Silver are up premarket in anticipation of the pig money printing/stimulus sure to come. I think this also puts the current "susterity negotiations" into flux. It's going to be hard for the republipukes to hold to austerity with the country collapsing and the demidumbs will have renewed wind behind their side to push the pork. Of course I am in the camp the whole game is rigged already so whatever was going to happen is already decided. If you noticed the 800lb gorilla in the room that is NEVER even mentioned to cut is the Military Industrial complex with it two WARS and 800 military bases in 125 countries. BTW can you imagine bring home the boys into this economy. I wonder what might happen to the POLS. Of course once the peeps start to get restless the troops will have something to do when they come back home.

Watch the behavior of gold today. If we stay bullish then we have convoy ahead. This game is just hetting started on this run. Its money printing gang. MONEY MONEY MONEY. gl all

NEW GAME IN TOWN ?

2011-07-07T07:37:00.003-05:00

The multi-month shorting of the miner's complex appears to be ending. Don't get too excited but you have to play the hand you are dealt. If this was too much for your heart then go ahead and take some profit. Otherwise you run with the big dogs until the game changes. Right now it looks like Silver won't start get really beaten up until it crosses the 40 resistance band. If we get a nice beatdown there back to 36 then you may want to take a reload. Many of these miners should have another 50 to 75% run in them this year. Stocks like GPL SLW SSRI EXK SVM RIC are included in this subset. GFI EGO HL represent safer but with less upside potential to play. The latter three "usually" give you nice swing trades on these multi-month bull moves. That is assuming we are in a multi-month bull move.

Be aware that the usual tree shaking of the weak hands is SURE to occur and we have had a nice run here so it could begin within the next day or two. I hope so. If it does I'll readd some that I took profit on the past two days. The ANV volume spike marking its low was classic as the big boyz covered their shorts. Most of the miners had more subtle bottoms marked. I still have plaently of cash in case I'm wrong. I won't test the ponzi here with the end of QE proclaimed. It could be a very rocky ride ahead and I don't want to miss any panic selling.

The Eurozone should really start getting warm over the next few weeks. Even the PTB can't stop the PIGGS. The Europeans are much more aware of what the game is than the
self-proclaimed "enlightened and free" American sheeple. The Europeans have had this game played on them for centuries. There nations have been destroyed by TWO World Wars. They know who is pulling the levers. They also know that going to the streets is their only recourse. Their unions WILL strike. So I maintain that this summer and next will be highly volatile for the Eurozone collapse. As long as we pump the Casey Anthonies and the DSKs and the Visit to Canada nightly by the Royal anorexics I feel we can be placated a while longer.

My feeling now is all large pullbacks in the PMs and Miners will be brief and bought furiously from now on out. Strap in for the ride now. BTW the technical damage to the Euro today was fatal. gl all.

I hope you take the time to listen to the second half of Keiser interview on Europe

2011-07-06T23:19:00.005-05:00

U.S. DOWNGRADED TO JUNK!

2011-07-06T07:28:00.004-05:00

Nahh...but it otta be. Everyone else was downgraded to junk status today. Obviously the PTB are wanting to get the process moving or they wouldn't have unleashed their dogs (the ratings agencies) on Portugal. Gold is finally starting to move a little after being flat most of the morning. I guess the fear trade will have some life in it at the opening.

Santelli had a great rant today. It reminded me of the old question if a tree falls in a forest and there is no one there to listen then does is make a noise. He spoke from the heart and it was all solid common sense stuff. SO OF COURSE NO ONE LISTENED. He was frustrated of course. You shouldn't be. This is a ship the size of continent and its NOT gonna turn around. Its headed for the Iceberg and there is NO stopping it. This is the boom bust cycle of SEVERAL lifetimes coming. Maybe the boom bust cycle of ALL time. No avoiding this one. Even the dipchits that have had their heads stuck in the sand and have sucked up the koolaid for years know something is wrong. I remember talking with a friend of mine in the early eighties when Reagan began breaking the bank on the budget and he said then that the debt didn't really matter. I argued and argued.....deaf ears. Watta dumbass....or was he just hearing what he wanted to hear. Either way he betrayed his country.

Still a little under the weather but I'm holding my mining core AG SLW SSRI ANV GFI EGO EXK GPL and several others. ALSO PLSV PHYS EUO YCS. THIS GAME IS JUST STARTING. gl

from Dan Norcini

WHAT'S THE NEXT RABBIT?

2011-07-05T02:34:00.002-05:00

Surely you must appreciate a beautiful beatdown of commodities. The silver beatdown. The oil reserves release and beatdown. The Corn report and beatdown. Only the best for our masters of the universe.

Unfortunately my weekend was spent recuperating from an illness but at least some of my time was productive. During my illness I managed to spend some time with three separate Corn producers that all said the same. The corn crop is a DISASTER. Yet the report stated it was an excellent plant. The eyewitness reports of one of producers was in IOWA Minnesota and Missouri.... the other producer was Illinois. The Illinois producer barely got his crop in but many of his friends have had trouble. So how could this report be so far off?

We already know that silver is totally manipulate as is gold. Time is on your side. This is all a stall tactic that is playing out. Eventually the market will win out.

Once I get back on my feet in a day or two I should be trading again. Hope you all had a great holiday. gl

Trying to catch up ...maybe this will tell you what's going to happen..

http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2011/07/stunning-plunge-in-comex-commercial-gold-net-short-futures.html

HOW LONG CAN IT GO ON?

2011-07-02T00:01:00.004-05:00

Can the illusion of prosperity with burdgeoning debt continue? Will the market continue to levitate in spite of obvious sinking structural economic shocks? The answer to us as investors lies somewhere in the Matrix. If your are trying to ascertain which pattern we are in right now in the market and how it fits which cycle theory then good luck to you. The Matrix is way more clever than you are and is making sure that its patterns are disguised. Did you enjoy last week? I bet you did. The market in a matter of five days completely takes back all of its losses for the past month. Not even one intraday pullback for the bears to cover. Trap the shorts and slaughter them like the dogs they are. Wait...I need to be careful there I have shorts. Anyway when you see that kind of action you can only marvel at just how desperate the current situation is for the ponzi. Essentially the primary dealers are carving the remaining flesh off the unwashed hedges and retail traders that have survived the slaughter up to this point. In hindsight it is fairly simple but seeing is believing. Pull the shorts in with some enticing patterns and breaks of key levels of support. Let the MSM shills play the music and oiula you have a toxic brew for the shorts created. The question at this point is have the taken out enough shorts that they have to start cranking the market down or do they continue to ramp the shorts next week until the blood is so thick that only the most masochistic will short the SnP. Only the Algos know.

I discussed with you last week that the market was on the brink of a serious collapse unless Ben called in the levers. He did.... in spades. But more interestingly did you notice how he ramped the market and simultaneously managed to keep the lid on commodity prices and PMs. THAT my friends is true power. The beatdown of commods started last week with the release of the oil reserves. That got the trade liquidation game going as they scrambled to cover margins. Just as they got the markets rolling again ....the boyz come out with the dubious report on the corn crop......once again crushing traders and killing the margins. What a slaughter for the traders that can't handle the leverage. No problem for the big boyz. It buys the boyz some time by bringing some slight relief to food prices. My guess is they try another trick or two on food prices this summer. Can't let the peeps bellies go empty. That's when the trouble really gets rolling.

One more thing before you go out and celebrate our birthday. July AND August are hot months and you better not count out Europe yet. There are still some fireworks coming over there during the next few weeks. It isn't over. Watch France.

http://www.10sigma.com/files/Borrowing%20from%20the%20Rich%2006-30-2011.pdf

LET'S CELEBRATE!!

2011-07-01T03:51:00.003-05:00

This is time for fireworks and celebration. It's our nations birthday. We have a lot to be grateful for so DON'T forget it. We managed to make it this for without imploding completely. Who knows??? We might make it another 250 years. We're gonna have to change some things though. Somewhere along the way we managed to really screw up. We stopped worrying about what was best for the good of the most and only what was good for us as individuals. We heard what we wanted to hear. We let ourselves be hypnotized by the charletons. Now we have over 900 military bases in over 125 countries and we still delude ourselves into making an excuse why they are necessary. We actually are talking austerity in this country without addressing this 800lb gorilla in the room. We just wave a flag everytime the issue comes up and back into the corner to throw grenades at "discretionary" budget Items like corporate Jets. Don't get me wrong, corporate Jet subsidies are absurd but guess what....the manufactures and people employed by the industry will argue they aren't. That's the trouble. Every subsidized industry has its paid lobbyist greasing the palm of the pols in DC. What chance does the average Joe have? Our allocation of precious resources has now become a grab bag for lobbyist. They dictate virtually every item in the budget. Of course guess which group controls it all.....the bankers of course.

So don't ruin your birthday celebration this weekend. It's all ok. The casino lights are still on and we are painting you a great 4th party tape. Its all gonna be fine. I hope that you get what you want in the next election. I'm sure we'll have some swell candidates for us to select from. A red one and a blue one. One will be conservative and one will be a liberal. One will be right and one will be left. You may not be in love with the one you vote for but you damn well know you don't want that other SOB. That's the game. Really! That's it.

Don't forget to accumulate your rounds and play the numbers.

PULL THE PLUG?

2011-06-30T07:15:00.002-05:00

Or keep printing. NO choice for the helicopter man. Monetization of the entire world underway. Greek the Greeks and let's move on to the next leak. Those Ouzo lickers aren't up for game but they do play a tough game of badmitton with tear gas canisters. Keep focus on the game. Air had to come out of the commodities but the game has not changed. Kick the can down the road as long as it doesn't get so heavy it breaks your foot.

There is still no clear evidence the PMs or Miners have bottomed so don't throw into that trade quite yet. I'll hold my core and take a little off if it starts turning off the 50ma around 532 on the $HUI.....but to get bullish the $HUI has to clear 552 and HOLD. Then I may add on pullbacks...Right now its patience. No rush to play in the casino. Let the traders on the blog pull the flesh from the carcass in this meat grinder.

On the news front we are getting job loss now in the Wall Street firms as trading and QE begins to wane. The next few years will be brutal for the Wall Street firms but a lot of the last scraps from the taxpayer were picked to give them the last three years. I hope they enjoyed their last feed.

Soon the reality of the Kondratieff Winter will begin to penetrate into all sectors of our psyche and denial will become acceptance. The Pos will continue their Kabuki theater with fewer and fewer believers to entertain. As for as investing you make your own decisision. If you believe that Ben has to keep monetization going here then you know what's going to happen.

from Jim Willie

WHATS THE NEXT STEP?

2011-06-29T06:57:00.002-05:00

If you are still in this market then you had better ask yourself why. This is where the game gets seriously confusing. No clear direction in the Market any longer with Ben's explicit message that QE2 is ending. Obviously many of the shorter term treasuries will catch a bid with fear creaping into the equation. Obviously there will be no attempt to increase rates in the the next year. When and if they do you can turn off the lights. That would be a signal depression is coming. Remember that.

I want to make some comments before I sign off today. Careful in the future on your cash holdings. I will be purposefully obtuse as Jim Sinclair was. Your trading accounts sitting in "cash" could be in jeopardy. It is one reason to consider being in equities OR products like PHYS or CEF or even PSLV. This is a true danger. What manner you choose in holding cash is yours, but these are strange times and expect confusing signals. I will repeat what little vision I have on the current trading environment. It will push the extremes of the Bollinger Bands and your patience. I have enjoyed the daily exchanges but am recieving mail from some of you expressing your fear of continued participation in this market and a public forum. I understand AND agree. gl all

ULTIMATE GREECE SOLUTION

2011-06-28T07:13:00.004-05:00

As mentioned before a rock and a hard place for a population that has lived beyond its means for decades is never one that is palatable to the population. Particularly the population that must bear the brunt of the "austerity". If you think the populace that has enjoyed retirement at 55 and yearly 6 week vacations is going to go happily through the gates of auterity singing kumbaya and dringking ouzo, think again. Eventually the weak kneed politicians will be supplanted by the generals to control the population. Their heavily socialized economy was ushered into the Eurozone fraudulently by the GS derivative sham that was sold to them so they could "qualify" to meet the "numbers". They may cry now but they took it. Now they have to pay the "devil" and they don't like the "devil" that was in the details. NOW they want the past eight year binge for free. Hehehehhe.....sorry Greece. When you dance with the devil.....you pay.

We danced too. We danced even longer than Greece. Our spending didn't go to vacations for the people and retirement starting at 55 or swimming pools. Our spending over the last decades went to our proud military and its wars all over the world. It goies to the weapons programs that make us the most feared power on earth. It goes to the programs that help us entice men and women to serve our wars. Six-figure college scholarships. Military retirement by 40. Health care for life. Not too bad in this economy if live to collect and most do. Unfortunately for the gravely wounded the VA system leaves a lot to be desired. Someone has to pay for our military might since we have been borrowing trillions to support it. Don't forget our retirement doesn't start until 67. We don't have nationalized one payer health care. And of course we can't tax the rich like Ike did in the 50s by raising the marginal tax rate on all yearly income over 2million to 90% rate. Just keep kicking the can down the road and keep kicking grandma in the gut.

Keep it simple we are debtors. We are going to try and keep this going another year. It means we will have to print money, not just for us but for many of these ailing economies. Then we will pull the plug. Can it all come apart sooner? Absolutely. So just be aware we are playing with fire.

The miner's core is painful but the cash in reserve will be put to work if they drag this pig down to $HUI 426 area......Gold and silver eventually will be much higher. Just buy the physical if the market roller coaster is too much.

gl all.

Ugly 50/200 bearish cross.....on $HUI

RUN! RUN!

2011-06-27T02:03:00.003-05:00

Like rats off a sinking ship the peeps are chased out of the commodity trade. Fear...the strongest motivator of all checks into the precious metals trade. All it takes is a pinch of fear from deflation...a pinch of Greek default....a pinch of contagion....a pinch of oil collapse......and ouila you have some fast margin calls and a scramble for liquidity. I don't like this at all. It scares me. Well at least it makes me kinda scared. It is the game you know.

The big boyz know this game isn't going to go on forever. At least its not going to go straight up forever. I warned you that the metals trade was way too hot when silver was pushing to 50 and needed to be reigned in. Of course there were predictions that JP Morgan was going to go broke with its silver short and the COMEX was going to default and that silver was going to go to the moon. Actually all of those could happen but you may be broke before they do. Certainly if you think that JPM (the Fed) is going broke then I guess you haven't checked lately with the ability of the Fed to print money until the cows come home. Who do you think is pumping Greece and the rest of the PIIGS right now through every back door channel?

The question that lingers is not if there is QE3.....but when and in what manner will it be implemented. There is NO CHOICE. This is what monetization is. Its not about pulling the plug on the ponzi in the middle of the game. So you have to be aware that at "some point", an 80lb rabbit is going to get pulled. Will it save the day? NO of course not. But its going to happen and its going to result in equities catching a bid. Precious metal will respond too. Gold has more security but Silver COULD linger a tad.

Miners may work their way down to the 426 area on the $HUI so use caution.

Watch the 140.80 on the Euro/usd......if it breaks then I think we will see 139 fast. The Euro is toast and eventually will start breaking like glass. But remember...once Ben monetizes, the dollar could slide back below its previous low. EUO is still in play. Also watch YCS .....its a nice short on the Yen....and they need to sell that currency soon to prop up their manufacturing. Japan is in bad shape. Stick a fork in them.....they're done unless the Yen takes a big hit.

Miners look like another dip but ANV just might do its own thing. It seems to move independently from the HUI.

Here is Clive Maund's take on silver...he see's it breaking 30 perhaps

COMING HOME?

2011-06-24T22:34:00.003-05:00

Really? Does anyone really think these modern legionairies are coming home. Is there a choice now? 900 military bases now in 125 countries. Rome would be proud. Of course there is a problem now. It's called a rock and a hard place even if you were predisposed to bring these men home. Did the Roman soldiers come home? If you check your history the Roman Legionaire served for 25 years. Actually that is very similar to the current time in the military for the average "lifer". What are these faces going to do when they come back to this country. When they show up on the doorsteps of house in Fort Campbell Kentucky....or Fort Leonard Wood, Missouri. They hardly know their wives and children that they have missed being with during some very critical years of marital growth and parental bonding.

We have tens of thousands of troops and mercenaries now returning that have virtually NO support for the adjustment to the stateside rigors of becoming a civilian again. Alcohol and drug abuse is unchecked as the pressures of a jobless recovery stateside becomes apparent. Many will manage to adjust and blend back in seemlessly to the daily work environments. They may possess a skill that's in demand. On the other hand there will be a large number of these men and kids that are going to be the "odd man out". They are not going to have their buddies watching their backs anymore. Its going to be very difficult after years of overseas deployments where you had your built in support systems and you daily purpose outlined for you to handle going out with limited skills in a jobless market and putting food on the table for a wife and children that need you now more than ever.

The Politicians that sent these men overseas have done little to provide support for many of these legionairies once they return stateside. Is it a concern to the politicians? It should be. Many of these men are skilled in the art of war and in the art of mass destruction.

I think we have entered a phase of our Republic that will need to continue war and occupation. At least for another decade to provide a means to keep these men employed and NOT stateside. At least until they can draw their pensions. That is going to be key. For without pensions and health care, many of these men are going to be in trouble. Wounded psyches from decades now of killing and occupation are bad enough. But you bring these men home from these wars and discharge them into this economy and you have a recipe for disaster. We have right now an extremely high level of suicide and homicide in these men and the pols are scared to death of this predicament. I hope that you realize that I believe even though these wars are draining our treasuries and creating enemies for us abroad everyday, that it is unlikely that these men are going to come home......unless......they are needed here.....and that's another story. gl

GDP...U.S. ECONOMY EXPLODING

2011-06-24T07:35:00.004-05:00

Don't worry now its all getting better. Better than estimate GDP growth of 1.8% should make you feel warm and cozy. This is all about how CONfident you are and this game is sliding downhill fast. That's no what we are concerned about. We already know this game.

What is the path going to be for the world economies to shake out. This is all being managed for the first time in history on a coordinated basis. Never in the history of the world have central banks had this much control of all the world's economies. Its the greatest economic experiement ever. Even China's central bank is cooperating. All the economies are intertwined and their very political survival depends on trying to keep their economies afloat. Balancing the forces of stagflation and deflation are creating imbalances within their countries and will continue to. Eventually the imbalances reach the tipping point and the whole house of cards comes tumbling down. Meanwhile we play at the casino table.

I know there is the possibility this house of cards comes tumbling down at anytime. Of course those of us that view this cleansing as positive for the future want to see deflationary wash of the excesses....BUT...this can is going to get kicked. Its sick and its terminal but its on chemotherapy now. Hold EUO as a hedge for example if the panic or fear kicks in. Hold dollars. Hold UUP. More importantly you should have physical gold or silver.

ANV GPL charts look positive. Let's see if they hold.