Thursday, September 30, 2010


Can you believe it? Who woulda eva thot? I guess we could neva eva have imagined this. Hehehe. Well maybe we have been right on target with this number for a long time. Now that we are at this level next stop is 1500. Hopefully it won't go straight there. Right now I am sitting on the sidelines with my hands in my pockets waiting for a reset. AND there will be. They have killed the market at this point and cannot get this market moving without trying volatility. Floor traders are dying. The layoffs are going to be staggering on Wall Street in the next six months...just watch. They're through. Victims of their own manipulation and greed. I hope they liked that last round of giant bonuses they raped our country with. Its our game too that is dying with them so gloating over their demise is not without our own pain coming.

Enjoy and remain is a cerpt from Rick's

Should we be worried now that the Wall Street Journal has “discovered” the bull market in gold? Relax. This bull market has years to go. It’s so powerful, in fact, that it will easily be able to shrug off yesterday’s front-page headline in the Journal, “Gold Vaults to New High,” and continue into the ozone. With the price of gold up 353% since 2000, the Journal was bound to notice the bull market sooner or later. A related headline on page two further qualified gold’s leap to new record highs as being related to “global worries.” This is true as far as it goes, but it overlooks the fact that gold has risen even in years when we weren’t so worried. And that is what we like most about the bull market in bullion: Whatever investment “story” has been out there over the last decade, gold as an asset class has led the pack. It has flourished during periods when investors were worried about inflation, but also when they were worried about deflation. The rally has weathered good economic times and bad, high and low unemployment, and a secular decline in interest rates. Gold has performed well when corporate bonds were in favor, and when they were not. Its price has risen when muni bonds and Treasurys were all the rage, and when both have been out of favor. If hell or high water lie ahead, we expect that neither will diminish gold’s allure.

Tuesday, September 28, 2010


THE END...of finacial life as we know it...Great article on the real bomb waiting and waiting. It is the Ponzi. It is the weapons of mass financial is the excerpt. BTW If I find you have been trying to trade this market heavy at this junction...then you will be banned from commenting...hehehe. This is one big gang

The banks and clearinghouses have asserted from day one that not every type of derivative contract can be cleared. Before the passage of Dodd-Frank, much of the discussion of clearing limitations concerned “bespoke” transactions, suggesting one-off, complicated arrangements with multiple terms, unsuitable to the standardized world of clearing. The discussion has shifted to a separate and more troubling issue. The new focus is on standardized contracts that involve risks that are difficult or impossible for clearinghouses to measure. The principle role of clearing is the statistical measurement of predicted price moves and the management of the credit risk associated with those moves. Margin to collateralize the risk is required to offset the risk. If the risk cannot be measured, the adequacy of margin is uncertain, calling into question the integrity of the clearinghouse.

There is tension between Dodd-Frank’s intention to move positions into the clearing environment and the need for a secure clearing system. The debate is over how to determine the scope of clearable contracts and use available techniques to maximize the categories of contracts that will be cleared.

Proponents of reform are generally skeptical of the clearinghouses on this issue. Until relatively recently, clearinghouses were owned by the trading firms and operated for their benefit. Clearinghouse profitability is based on volumetric fees, and the banks represent the vast majority of volume. The clearinghouses and banks have freely admitted that financial institutions are both heavily involved and influential in the process of determining the types of contracts that are cleared. Bank involvement is essential, they say, because of their expertise and their ultimate exposure if things go wrong.

This assertion is deeply ironic and raises some concerns:

• If a transaction’s risk cannot be measured adequately to permit prudent collateralization, why should the system allow a financial institution to trade it?

• In the go-go era of derivatives trading, clearinghouses competed to clear products (and increase revenues and share prices) by pushing the envelope of statistical risk metrics. The new emphasis on prudence is startling.

• Clearinghouses are supposed to be experts in measuring derivatives risk. While banks might be a good source of information on a new contract, the clearinghouses must make the decisions. They exist to manage risk, not to further the interests of the clearing members. In reality, this distinction is still blurred for many senior managers of clearinghouses.

• Financial institutions are at risk if a clearinghouse fails; but, recalling the autumn of 2008, so is the public.

Much of the discussion has revolved around share ownership limitation and corporate governance. These are valid concerns. Perhaps a more important focus is the risk committees at clearinghouses. Clearinghouse managers and clearing members (that is to say, the banks) run the core business through these committees. They control the central issues, including the types of contracts that can be cleared. Regulatory or public interest participation in these committees would be an effective way to legitimize the process.

If it is accepted that the risk of certain categories of derivatives cannot be measured adequately to permit conventional clearing, the discussion moves on to techniques that depart from conventional clearing practices to enable more transactions. Three methods, which are not mutually exclusive, have been suggested by proponents:

• Statistical projections used in clearing are based on historic price movements. The idea is to cover some large percentage, often 99%, of historic price moves with margin. There is no reason that margin should be limited to historic movements. If margin collateral exceeded the largest historic movements, more transactions could be cleared.

• Reference prices in problem contracts can often be disaggregated into components: one that is easily cleared and one that is not. This is because of the real-world characteristics of the commodity or financial instrument that is the subject of the contract. Consider a difficult natural gas delivery point that is physically sourced from a readily clearable delivery point. The disaggregated price risk of the clearable point could be cleared, leaving only the stub price differential as a problem contract. Thereby, more risk is cleared.

• The obstacle to clearing problem contracts is unacceptable risk for the clearinghouse. Requiring the clearinghouses to run separate clearing pools in which this risk is limited or eliminated allows the broadest scope of clearing. This is far better than the alternative — leaving these transactions in the bi-lateral world.

Monday, September 27, 2010


one for old times sake...why not? Markets dead. Look for volatility very soon and a take down....hope they push it to 1160.

here ya go night owls

Saturday, September 25, 2010


There is only one variable to watch, period. Again, if you can anticipate its move, you know where our market is going. This is not that hard. Rarely do you get 100% correlation, take it as a gift.

If you are smart you would put late evening Oct. 3rd, Oct 4th Australian time, on your calenders and worry about little else. No rate hike, markets tank next day. The Australian Dollar is pricing in a rate hike in a big way, if that bet fails to pay off you could get one hell of a vicious sell-off in their currency, which naturally will translate to a vicious sell-off in our equity markets. Rate hike ? sell on the news or rocket higher, that is the tough one to call.

For the time between now and then, just follow the bouncing Australian Dollar and you know where are market is going.

For those who use Stock Charts; chart this ticker, $XAUD, against our market. Take a very close look at what happened to AUD and our markets late August. You can go back much further also. If you want to hedge your short bet, FXA is the ETN you may want to get to know very well.

It really is that simple.

I agree with you regarding the Euro and Pound, however; their correlation is not nearly as strong as that of the Australian Dollar against the USD. The reason being is the leverage tied to the carry trade is with the Australian Dollar/USD pair, now that both the Yen and CHF carry trades are all but dead given the strength in their respective currencies. It is really the only game left, for the moment.

The currency markets trade four Trillion dollars a day, dwarfing both the equity and bond markets. The low volume equity market can be moved with just a mild breeze coming from the currency markets, until the trade goes against them. That's when things get interesting. Anyone who doesn't understand the currency market and its impact on both the equity and bond markets will be left scratching their heads wondering what is going on.

I think the article you site makes a valid point, and am personally betting on either no hike, or sell on the news. However, I am hedging with Oct call options on FXA as my safety net. It is cheap protection.

I also noticed I gave the wrong ticker on Australian dollar, it is $XAD.

The reason the Australian Dollar matters is, because that is where the leverage is. These guys can leverage 100:1 and now some are offering 500:1. Suicidal? Yes. The leveraged carry trade has driven all bubbles for a couple of decades. Before the dollar became the major player, it was yen and swiss franc. Same game different bubble. This never turns out well, but it can be played for a very long time, trumping fundamentals every step of the way. Wall Street has a way of justifying the craziest fundamentals, and housing to name a few, all to keep the party going.

All you need to really know is 4 TRILLION dollars a day!!! That kind of money can move any market at will. The money is now in the AUD/USD trade and floating all sick boats around the world. That turns, lights out. They will try to catch it every time it tries to fall, but eventually they will fail.

So you need to watch Australia and what goes on there very closely. Lucky for these traders the fundamentals in Australia are very good, compared to the rest of the world. But there's a housing bubble brewing there that could pop in the not too distant future.

You don't even need to get that granular, just watch the Assie dollar and you will be ok.

From the SKF thread poster....batinator...great job


It is our conjecture that inflation is always a monetary phenomenon and willing policymakers have the ability to create inflation. Now, before we delve any further, we want to make it clear that inflation is an increase in the supply of money and debt. Conversely, deflation is a decrease in the supply of money and debt. Furthermore, it is critical to understand that an increase in the general price level is a consequence of inflation and a decrease in the general price level is a consequence of deflation. Most importantly, despite what you may hear elsewhere, you should keep in mind that a booming economy (operating at maximum capacity) is not a pre-requisite for inflation.

Now, if you reside in the deflation camp and believe that inflation cannot occur in a weak economic environment, you need to visit Zimbabwe and meet Mr. Mugabe who will explain how you can create hyper-inflation at a time when a nation is facing an economic depression! Whether you like it or not, Zimbabwe’s hyper-inflationary saga clearly shows that despite a huge output gap, surging unemployment and a bankrupt economy, reckless policymakers can succeed in creating massive inflation.

Look. We do acknowledge the fact that the economies of the developed world are struggling and they will probably remain weak for several years. We also accept the fact that the aggregate demand in these troubled economies will stay well below the available capacity (output gap). However, contrary to the deflation camp, we totally respect the money-creation abilities of the central banks. Accordingly, we firmly believe that in order to avoid sovereign defaults in the near-term, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will create unprecedented inflation.

Already, short-term interest-rates in the US and in Europe are at extremely low levels and real short-term interest-rates are negative. If such a loose monetary policy fails to create inflation, you can bet your bottom dollar that these central-banks will unleash even more rounds of ‘Quantitative Easing’. Needless to say, such reckless monetary-inflation will dilute the existing money-stock even further and reduce the purchasing power of money. Okay, enough about the inflationary bias of the public-sector, let us now move on to the private-sector.

As far as the private-sector is concerned, you may recall that after the credit-bubble burst two years ago, commercial-bank credit in the US started to contract. After all, this debt repayment by the private-sector was a logical response to the crisis and for 17 months, commercial-bank credit declined by roughly US$700 billion. In fact, it was this private-sector debt contraction which prompted many economists and investor to enter the deflation camp.

Thursday, September 23, 2010


I will be brief...still busy on another project. STAY OUT of the market here. WAIT until this shakes out. This all smells like distribution. If you must be short and play try... SH...its not leveraged...

I watched overseas last nite and things are breaking down in Europe...riots will POTENTIALLY be occurring this year...whick is a year earlier than I expected. My guess is that Euroland will hold together another year, but don't bet on it. This could set in motion at least a near term spike in gold AND an equity correction. If you have held your core of miners ....please take some profit....If you don't have physical gold wait for pullback but you can buy silver here ....

We are not recovering as most of you can tell, but that doesn't mean the illusion won't be extended for awhile longer. gl all

Tuesday, September 21, 2010


Will it be more of the same today? So far so good.....distribution with extend and pretend to entice more money into the market is a very delicate dance. Just look at the results of the surreptitious QE going on and silver breaking out. Will they be able to continue their dastardly little plan without the PMs responding in kind...NO WAY. So we may see a stop to the madness here. I still expect some fear injected into this market before November, but for now I will stay on the sidelines and let the Algo boyz fight it out.

By Michael Pento, Senior Economist of Euro Pacific Capital

There is wide agreement among economists and the financial media that our lackluster economic performance stems from continued "deleveraging" among consumers and businesses. Although it is certainly true that after decades of overly speculative borrowing, individuals and corporations are paying down debt, rebuilding their savings, and generally repairing their respective balance sheets. But these activities cannot be faulted for our economic malaise.

In fact, as a country, we haven't deleveraged at ALL. All the moves made by the private sector have been vastly outpaced by the federal government's efforts to add leverage to the economy. The net result is that we are much more indebted now than we were before the recession began; as a result, we are digging ourselves even faster into debt.

The good news is that households paid down debt for the 9th quarter in a row. In Q2, they deleveraged at a 2.3% annual rate, as their total debt outstanding dropped from $13.52 trillion to $13.45 trillion from Q1. That's still around 92% of GDP, which is way up from the 48% level in 1980, but the direction is positive. Ultimately, the message here could not be clearer: American households have decided - either voluntarily or involuntarily - that it is in their best interest to quit borrowing money and reduce their debt levels in order to reconcile their balance sheets. The bad news is that most economists view this as a pernicious tendency.

To counter the trend, economists have called for government to provide the spending that others have deferred - and the feds have been thrilled to comply. In fact, during Q2, Washington accumulated debt at a 24.4% annualized rate! So, even though households and state and local governments have begun to learn some valuable lessons, DC still managed to increase the overall level of non-financial debt in the US to a record $35.45 trillion. In an era of supposed deleveraging, the rate of debt accumulation has increased from 4.5% to 4.8% annualized over the past quarter.

By focusing solely on the behavior of the private sector, and ignoring the equally important fiscal habits of government, the financial media and mainstream economists have displayed a dangerous blind spot in their thinking. They fail to understand or acknowledge that borrowing done by a household or a government is virtually the same thing. The US government does have any independent means to generate wealth to pay off debt. It doesn't own factories or mines, and it does not operate a profitable service-sector business. It does not have an independent store of savings in another dimension, from which it can produce goods outside the bounds of economic law.

In the real world, all government stimulus comes from borrowing, spending, or printing, or to put it another way: deferred taxation, capital redistribution, or inflation. That means all US debt is ultimately backed by the tax base of the country. Therefore, whether the consumer or the government that does the borrowing is really unimportant because, in the end, it is the consumer that will receive the bill.

Meanwhile, government interventions are particularly pernicious because they encourage short-sighted behavior in the private market as well. It was reported today that corporations are using the rock-bottom interest rate environment to execute leveraged buybacks of their shares. While this temporarily increases shareholder value, it ultimately leaves the corporations - and the broader economy -- even further in debt.

As of Q2 2010, total non-financial debt is rising at a 4.8% annual rate but GDP is growing at only 1.6% annualized. US debt as a percentage of GDP continues to climb, which should put to bed any talk of a deleveraging or deflating economy. Consumers are clearly only part of the equation - and, for now, the smaller part. The US government, in fighting the claimed deleveraging, is sending the total debt level into the stratosphere. As we watch it soar upward, the dollar steadily drifts downward.

update I..

Monday, September 20, 2010


From Bronze:

I wouldn't worry too much what the World at large thinks of us and our troops,
as it is likely,form their vantage point of being
on the outside looking in,they see our occupations,for what they are;

an Imperialists Nations occupying of a sovereign foreign state.

Thus, they are NOT deceived by the modern U.S. military doctrine of;

"winning over the hearts and minds of the occupied people "

A bogus doctrine designed by the Occupiers solely for the purpose
of occupying other nations territories.

A doctrine designed to intentionally shackle the soldiers abilities
to wage war as waging war has traditionally been waged,
thus relegating him to that of simply being a police officer.

Where the maze has been so perfectly crafted
even those of you who,in the best of humanitarian intentions,
demand our soldiers adhere to it's policy,
are simply performing your role as was anticipated,
and are merely another pawn of the system,
the ONLY correct response,
is to demand we cease our Imperialists Intentions,
and GET OUT of the multitude of Foreign Nations
we occupy.

Any voice or opinion, other than that one,to get out,
is simply contributing ans supporting the Imperialists Plan
where compounding the citizens impotency,
is that the benefits derived from it's conquering and occupying military force,
do not go to the people,of the United States
but to the Multi-National Corporations,
behind their endeavours.

All the people get,
is the bill,
and the ability
to run thru the maze

lemme repeat;

Any voice or opinion, other than that one,to get out,
is simply contributing to and supporting the Imperialists Plan,
as was planned all along.

and the same goes with the internal politics;

Any voice or opinion other than that to Vote out of office
every encumbent on the dole,is equally contributing to and assisting
the Corruptacy.

some day everyone will get it

The "Imperialist" plan also includes the war on their own, not just on the foreign sovereign nations. The ruling class sends young men (and some women) - 18 to 30something - to wars to get destroyed, whether physically or mentally. That eliminates current and future competition for the class.

They've done that so many times throughout ages.

From general Smedley Butler:

Saturday, September 18, 2010

Land Of Confusion

All the issues and troubles facing the country have been communicated to us by various artists while back. Phil Collins in 80s wrote and sang the " Land Of Confusion". Here we are now:

I must have dreamed a thousand dreams
Been haunted by a million screams
But I can hear the marching feet
They're moving into the street

Now, did you read the news today?
They say the danger has gone away
But I can see the fire's still alight
They're burning into the night

There's too many men, too many people
Making too many problems
And there's not much love to go around
Can't you see this is a land of confusion?

This is the world we live in
And these are the hands we're given
Use them and let's start trying
To make it a place worth living in

Oh, superman, where are you now?
When everything's gone wrong somehow?
The men of steel, these men of power
Are losing control by the hour

This is the time, this is the place
So we look for the future
But there's not much love to go around
Tell me why this is a land of confusion

This is the world we live in
And these are the hands we're given
Use them and let's start trying
To make it a place worth living in

I remember long ago
When the sun was shining
And all the stars were bright all through the night
In the wake of this madness, as I held you tight
So long ago

I won't be coming home tonight
My generation will put it right
We're not just making promises
That we know we'll never keep

There's too many men, too many people
Making too many problems
And there's not much love to go round
Can't you see this is a land of confusion?

Now, this is the world we live in
And these are the hands we're given
Use them and let's start trying
To make it a place worth fighting for

This is the world we live in
And these are the names we're given
Stand up and let's start showing
Just where our lives are going to

Friday, September 17, 2010


I'm pretty much sidelined here other than my physical holdings, but its a beautiful meteoric rise in gold and silver.....everyone is abuzz on CNBS and it looks like the PMs have no limit. I agree...but over what timeline? I think I will just watch. Ambush time can be anytime. Here is another look from Alpha......

Gold fever is converting an increasing number of mainstream investors into gold bugs. Newbies who were fortunate enough to buy gold at any point during this year are no doubt celebrating their gains. And many are looking to take profits now that gold has made another record (nominal) high at $1,279. After all, the gold price has enjoyed an advance of nearly $100 during the past month and we are probably facing some profit taking and correction, right?

Not exactly. The first thing to consider is that while gold has just made a new record nominal high, the price is still nowhere near the inflation-adjusted high of $2,500 to $5,000, depending on whether you use true or manufactured (government) inflation statistics. Secondly, the $100 advance in the past month represents a gain of only 8%, versus the last major upleg which lasted 3 months and registered a gain of more than 26%.

But stocks don’t go up (or down) in a straight line, right?

Not exactly. While they don’t move up in a straight line forever, major uplegs of bull markets have no problem moving nearly straight up for months at a time before correcting or consolidating. If you have been riding the gold bull for a while, you will remember several periods over the past decade where the price seemed to defy gravity

Thursday, September 16, 2010


But not gold least not yet. Nice read on Jackass.

Alan Greenspan had full knowledge of his betrayal to the principles of sound money. He wrote early in his career about the only legitimate basis for a monetary system, namely Gold. His published works from four decades ago read like an indictment against his career for monetary crimes against the nation. His accommodation, giving the financial sector what they wanted, betrayed his mindset. He knew the nation courted disaster with a long delayed fuse. His quote is being circulated frequently and broadly lately, "Gold is the canary in the financial coal mine." Exactly, precisely, perfectly. Greenspan proved to be a great handler of the politicians, offering them obfuscation of the most erudite variety. They were so confused by his drivel to be immensely impressed


To be sure, the war machine, immature during the Vietnam War, more mature for the advanced Iraq and Afghan Wars, accelerated and completed the process of saturating the nation with debt. The combination of domestic asset bubble development and war machine maturity conspired to gut the nation of industry and force it to depend upon a sequence of asset bubbles. They all busted. Few analysts dare to point a finger at the war costs, deemed sacred, rarely debated, always funded. Half the national debt of $12 trillion is attributed to war spending, hardly defensive anymore. The USMilitary expansion has become servant to its own gargantuan appetite, no longer driven by security motives. Expansion of war to secure supplies for the nation might be better explained as the global stretch of the military complex in order to secure supplies for itself. The complex is a vibrant independent enterprise. It might require new wars to secure its own supply chain in order to sustain its own operations, which increasingly depart from the objective of the people, and increasingly conform to the Syndicate objectives.

Wednesday, September 15, 2010


We should know soon whether the animal spirits that pushed gold and silver sharply higher yesterday can withstand the endorsement of James Cramer. Although we seldom watch his show – even with the TV off, you can practically hear him shouting within a ten-mile radius of CNBC’s Fort Lee studio — someone mentioned in the Rick’s Picks chat room yesterday that he’s hot to acquire gold and precious-metal shares. Never too late, we suppose, but we somehow doubt he was so keen on the stuff ten years ago, when an ounce of bullion was selling for about a fifth its current price. Is it too late to jump on the bullish bandwagon even though Cramer’s doing it? Not at all. In fact, so certain are we that an ounce of gold will trade above $1400 by year’s end that we promise to don a grass skirt and dance the hula in Times Square in the middle of winter if we’re wrong. (Oh, right, we’re already doing that because Goldman shares failed to fall to a $29 target we were equally certain about. What could we have been thinking? And how foolish it was to bet against a company that, through interlocking directorates, owns a majority stake in the U.S.

You don’t need to be a technical analyst these days to discern that precious-metal quotes want to go higher. Silver in particular has gone marauding despite the best efforts of the bad guys to hold it down. We had alerted subscribers Monday night to the possibility of a price surge that would lift gold as well when we wrote as follows: “Silver has been showing more energy than Gold lately, a fact that has been reflected in [our] enthusiastic Silver touts over the last couple of weeks. Late Monday night, the futures were pushing past the 20.185 Hidden Pivot midpoint of the pattern shown in the chart. This implies they are bound for at least 20.445, its ‘D’ sibling, although there are bigger patterns with commensurately higher targets that were identified here earlier.” In plain English, Silver was chomping through the last obstacle DaBoyz could set in front of it. When it finally popped, the December contract gained 25 cents in the wee hours – peaking at exactly 20.445; then they got second wind when Chicago markets opened, hitting an eventual high of 20.550.

By that time, gold, which had been somewhat lethargic in the last week or so, didn’t need any help. The Comex contract shot up nearly $30 intraday, bettering our 1264.40 target by $12. We’d said it would be clear sailing to at least 1291 if the December futures got past 1264, and we’re holding to that forecast. from Ricks Picks

Tuesday, September 14, 2010


But I am still going to wait for that Precious metal pull back. Keep enjoying your time off and if you are going to take a position in the miners make it a trade only. This market is nasty right here.

After a brief decline in July, gold once again finds itself in the investment spotlight as investors seeking safety from the turbulence of the bottoming 4-year cycle turn to gold. In its latest close, the gold price according to the 100 oz. COMEX index closed at $1,248.50 just below and within reach of its previous high of $1,260.

Crowd sentiment on gold and the gold stocks is obviously running high but I don’t get the sense it has reached the dangerously high proportions seen at major tops. The number of articles dedicated to the yellow metal in mainstream news publications has increased in recent weeks. At minimum this is a sign that investors should exercise caution on the near term trend, using the favorable publicity gold garners as a warning to tighten up stop losses on existing long positions.

Some analysts are going so far as to put a “sell” on the yellow metal due its recent surge in popularity. To get a contrarian sell signal we’d have to see outrageous levels of excitement over gold and gold stocks, coupled with a nearly linear or parabolic rise in price. We’d also expect to see something that has accompanied virtually every significant market top in recent years, which is when full color pictures of the lustrous metal are seen adorning the front pages of magazines and newspapers. The closest we’ve seen to this recently is the August 30 cover of Businessweek, which featured the face of billionaire financier Thomas Kaplan against a gold colored backdrop, headlined “The Gold Digger.” The article was in reference to Kaplan’s search for gold in Romania. This skirts the edge of the “gold cover” indicator but doesn’t quite qualify for it, IMO.'

Monday, September 13, 2010


The new buzzword that will begin to dominate business media airwaves as the pundits and spinmeisters are forced to face the reality of our problem. As mentioned on this blog multiple times previously we will not be able to repair this with additional debt reflation efforts. This time we will need true leadership with incredible individual sacrifice.

We will be forced to endure the pain of paying off the cumulative debt from years of living at the trough. You thought you could cheerlead two needless wars spilling american blood and civilian blood in the name of FEAR. While simultaneously getting your taxes cut....or at least my income bracket did. The piper will be paid. Either through an incredible deflationary collapse or a dollar devaluation from hell. (ultimately I see the latter).

Your promises of social security made while they diverted the fund to the general budget is going to come back and kill all retirees. enjoy your day...

Market remains completely controlled so relax....they have to do their distribution this week then me thinks we will see 1000....right now I am content to relax and watch...sold some more longs now almost 90% cash also added SH today. Thank you boyz for the DTO Love to see oil at 80 this week.

Saturday, September 11, 2010


How many times did we have to listen to this diatribe during the past years. While Rome was burning Larry Kudlow nightly beat this drum. Even in the face of a diving stock market he continued the mantra as the few remaining sheep stood fast in their belief of the Krudlow creedo. I would sit and listen and wonder just how anyone like this could be allowed to continue to have a podium to spew such an obvious pile of garbage to the faithful listeners of CNBS (misspelling intended)....Many of us that have spent the last fateful years trying to invest and study the debacle that has befallen this country are realizing that this is NOT a random evidenced by the multitude of Kudlows that have graced the airwaves. You need only go back and rewind the years of pundits and their suicidal advice given....and these were the EXPERTS. I always wondered as an early investor years ago how two EXPERTS could often have a 180 degree point of view on the economy or the investment strategy....100% diametrically OPPOSITE viewpoints....not just differences.

Our conclusions certainly arrive belatedly at some type of conspiracy. You have a google and it really isn't that difficult to research. Make your own decisions. The puppet masters would have you pick a liberal socialist agenda as the culprit....but a good progressive knows better....or maybe its the republican party that is behind it with there own wedge issue platter of issues....a good conservative won't stand for that. So you see its very simple... divide and conquer...maintain confusion within the sheeple. Its so easy. Its beautiful to see how a well laid plan comes into play here. As investors we must always recognize the game and what it can do to our decisions and just how vulnerable you really are in this casino...

Your sons and daughters will be asked to sacrifice for this you owe them the education of YOURSELF so that you may provide them the best advice to move forward without being a SHEEP like 98% of their cohorts will be. This game will go on for a lifetime....I guarantee that. Here is a nice excerpt and good

Back in the glory days of 2008, the mainstream press, political pundits, and various government officials talked about the idea of the Goldilocks economy. Not too hot, not too cold, but just right. Of course the analogy ended when the bears chased Goldilocks out of the cottage. While the same outlets aren’t trotting out the fairy tale this time around, it is clear that the US has hit phase two of the Goldilocks economy and it is my guess that most folks will like this one even less than the first.

And again, there are three major bears that are threatening to once again drive Goldilocks deep into the forest.

update I...amazing how honest an old man can be....

Friday, September 10, 2010


I think I shall observe a day of rest. The sidelines seem like a very nice play to me. Let O have his little talk. This market is a stinko at this level. 85% cash seems very nice. The only thing that keeps this afloat is the print money and a LOT of bearish sentiment and neither is enough to trade here.....except for intraday quickies.

Enjoy life and get out and enjoy the weather. The diversions afforded you by the cabal need to be enjoyed and taken advantage of. Diversions do have their positives.

Let the miners come back to you if you haven't taken profit....then do so.

Looking for RSI and Stochs and trends to touch on the energy stocks.....NBR SGY ATPG

SGG is a monster....I'm out...;-(

Cycles should bottom in mid October.....

Bottom line this is all bullion silver and gold...fertile farmland.

gl.....enjoy the time off

Thursday, September 9, 2010


I fondly recall trading the 07-09 crash as a bear and still having a hard time making a killing due to the market manipulation and outright fraud by the collusion of the government and wall street. Other traders argued that my cries of collusion were conspiracy theorists paranoia. Now alas it is too obvious. Here is another take from an insider. Great the entire link...its fascinating. This is an article that will open your eyes to just how intertwined the corruption is.

After being hazed all day and into most evenings by my firm’s Options Specialists for about six months, I was given a seat on the trading floor. It is from that point on that I began the conversion from business school idealist to incompetent cynic. In fact, well before I officially became a trader, I witnessed “broad daylight” collusion every day. The myths of the “fair and orderly market” and the “competitive open outcry system” were dispelled almost immediately as soon as I had learned enough as a trainee to be able to slow down the frenetic action to a pace that was comprehensible. What do I mean? Why is this important? Well, in theory, the traders of options on a given stock are supposed to be competitors that do not cooperate with other members to set market prices on which the public will execute trades. The reality is that the main trader, typically the specialist, makes the bid-ask spread market and the majority of the time the entire trading crowd simply states their level of commitment to the market that he has made. Here is the problem, OUR watch-dog, the SEC, rarely if ever has done anything about this clear violation of the law. Many techniques and devices are employed to encourage market makers to play ball. Any time spent on some of the options floors over the years would have revealed this to the SEC. This means… they know it and they just do not care. They have always known it. This may not be a revelation here in 2010 with Rick’s “crowd” being a rather enlightened one, but 20 years ago this matter-of-fact flouting of the law initially stunned this “Econ/Finance” dual-major as these business practices were conspicuously absent from the textbooks. What does this prove? It proves what many of you -- but until recently not nearly enough people -- believed: The government is entirely about strategic, selective prosecution. Shocked, right? The government and the markets are corrupt! I am sure that many of you are floored! Hold on though, I am “going somewhere” with this as it is stated.

As you have probably already guessed, this “welcome to the real world of our markets” experience put me on a path that would shatter nearly all of my idealistic beliefs about a country with systems that I was raised to revere. Just in case you weren’t sure how corrupt things actually are within our markets, it’s my hope that any faith that you may have reserved is fully gone by now because if it can happen in plain view amongst competitors then much more can clearly occur behind closed doors. Let’s get back to that “assume that others know what you know” concept and in doing so, we’ll leap ahead in time by about five years.

I love his final line...its a long article but just so is the line

Having spent nearly 20 years doing what I can to uncover the truth after continually witnessing the statistically improbable occur just on the heels of the highly unlikely, I’ll conclude with this: No matter how cynical one thinks he or she is, I’ll take the contra-side every time and bet that the overwhelming majority of investors are not nearly cynical enough in their analysis. My friends, these financial sociopaths and their sociopol lackeys play for keeps.

Wednesday, September 8, 2010


Bernanke and other FED officials keep saying in public that price inflation is no longer the #1 threat to the economy. Deflation is. This is what they believe. Why? Because they are mostly Keynesians, with a few Chicago School monetarists. They really do think price deflation is a threat to the economy. They are willing to take any steps to prevent price deflation.

There is neither price deflation nor price inflation visible at this time. The monetary base has been flat for six months. The price indexes reflect this.

So, if price deflation really is the threat, what can the FED do to prevent it? It can start buying assets – any assets. This will increase the monetary base. It will put newly created fiat money into the economy.

A careful reading of Chairman Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech indicates that he and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are keeping their digital powder dry. They will inflate the money supply in order to keep the economy from price deflation.

What is wrong with price deflation? The fact that long-term price deflation is the outcome of increased productivity in relation to a fixed money supply does not appear in anything written or spoken by a Federal Reserve official. Why not? Because they are mostly Keynesians, with a few Chicago School monetarists.

The Keynesians prefer mild price inflation, which means substantial monetary inflation. Chicago School monetarists say they are in favor of stable prices. Therefore, they are in favor of a steady increase in the base money supply: 3% to 5% per annum. Anyway, that was Milton Friedman's official estimate 40 years ago. These days, they do not offer a figure, but there were no howls of opposition to the FED's doubling of the monetary base almost two years ago.

If the FED buys T-bonds, this will lower the interest rate on these bonds. The money will be instantly spent by the Treasury. The recipients of this Treasury money will deposit it into their banks. If the banks add to their excess reserves, then prices will not rise by much. The recovery will not appear. Price inflation will not occur. We will turn into Japan, with this difference: the Treasury will borrow from Asian central banks to keep interest rates down. The public will consume more than it produces. The Federal debt will grow. Japan exported; we will import.

And then, one fine day, the Treasury will find that it cannot roll over its debts at low rates. That is the day that the FED will inflate. It will buy the debt. Today, it would take large FED purchases for price inflation to reappear – purchases large enough to more than offset increases in excess reserves by banks. Otherwise, the multiplier effect of fractional reserve banking will not take place. There would be mild price inflation through the injection of fiat money, but this will not spiral upward.

Neither will the economy. This is the FED's problem. It has shot its wad. The economy is slowing. It may head into recession, assuming that it has ever emerged from the original recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research's committee in April refused to say that it has.

This is good for the FED. It gets no criticism from Congress. The recovery is not here, but Keynesians blame Congress for not spending more money. Democrats blame Republicans for being so tight-fisted. Republicans fight more spending because they smell victory in the November elections. Standing pat is to their advantage. The Democrats are getting the blame for the slow economy.

So, from a Keynesian viewpoint, the FED is not to blame. From a Chicago School viewpoint, commercial bankers are to blame. From the Austrian point of view, the FED is to blame, but it was Greenspan who did it. Austrian economists are happy that commercial bankers are not lending. This is deferring the arrival of hyperinflation: a doubling of prices.

update I......this is da way is see it too....time will tell

Tuesday, September 7, 2010


Jim Rickards gives interesting advice to his clients. He discusses his recommendation to get out of equities and the mess that has been created by Fed manipulation. I pulled the last paragraphs up that were very curious speculation on his part as follow.

Rickards covers much more, including the Fed's empty bazooka and the only option left, the nuclear one, hyperinflation, as a function of money velocity exploding, and, of course, gold, on which topic he says the following:

Gold actually brings me to my second point about Fed policy, we said are they out of bullets. They don't think they are, they think they've got quantitative easing they can do in much larger size. I don't think quantitative easing is a bullet that's going to work. I think that chamber is empty. But the Fed does have a bullet that they may not even realize which I call 'The Golden Bullet.' Which would be basically conducting open market operations in gold in such a way as to devalue the dollar.

If you're worried about deflation and you want to cause inflation and you're printing money as fast as you can and the inflation is not happening, at some point you have to stop and ask yourself well what else can I do? Well the answer is that you can severely devalue the dollar against gold...So the Fed wakes up one day and as fiscal agent for the Treasury, we're a buyer at $1,495 and we are a seller at $1,505, and that represents a 20% depreciation in the value of the dollar.

update I...... a must watch video below article

Monday, September 6, 2010

WHY WE ARE F_ _ _ _D

Or why it won't be the same old recession your parents had. This time is truly different.

1) Structural unemployment. What does this mean...simple example is to just look at the collapse of the market and economy in 2000. What did we do from an employment standpoint to fill the drain of over 15 years at that point of manufacturing jobs that had been shipped overseas and lost in the .com tech crash.....WE faked it with a phony construction boom. Thousands of phony jobs building Mcmansions and glass towers for WHAT??? Not to mention all the service sector expansion based upon the phony liquidity from derivatives expansion.

2) This is a debt/deleveraging recession NOT an inventory recession. WE DID NOT have excess manufacturing inventory to wind down. Infact we had very little inventory to wind down. So there will be NO rebound in manufacturing to lead the economy out.
THIS is STRUCTURAL. People will not spend they are all screwed. They are afraid and are SAVING and will continue to SAVE and DELEVER...and those unemployed are totally fkd.....

3) A lack of confidence on almost ANY level you look at. A lack of consumer confidence. The consumer is in debt up to their eyeball and has been raped by the bankers on almost every level and they know they are going to be raped even more. The TRANSPARENCY that was promised by the new administration after the last regime raped us.......NEVER has been delivered....HOLLOW promises only. AND EVERYONE knows it.

4) Complete and utter moral and ethical breakdown of all institutions. NO public confidence at any level of Government. The supreme court has been bastardized with the passage of the law guaranteeing that corporations have the rights of individuals. Translated for the learning are OWNED... the bankers own you and there is NOTHING you can do about it.

5) Both parties are now completely controlled by the bankers and if you haven't figured that out by now ...stop reading this blog and go to and watch Glenn Beck....because you deserve to let me take your money.

6)Your religious institutions are completely owned by the they control even your thoughts regarding church and state.....or lack of separation. Who in the hell after what our forefathers sacrificed would have believed that an idiot like Jerry Falwell would ever be be allowed to recieve tax exemption and tell his idiots who to vote for while on the pulpit. Now every half wit evangelical is doing it to their flock of SHEEP....There was a reason that the forefathers tried to prevent this and when this unwinds you will find that the group that is the weakest will pay the might be you....just remember that. In the name of god can be a very cruel price to pay.

7)Demographics.....these numbers are horrific.....with the burden of an aging population to care for.....who will provide the necessary money for them to retire. We have a declinging educational system That now places us somewhere between Croatia and El apologies to El Salvador...WHO WHO is going to pay...And the borders? that subject is just too rich.....WHO do you think keeps that border open?....three guesses.....besides...folks ..who do ya think is going to take care of your old butts in the next 20 years hospitals and nursing homes...the lazy fat kids you had??? AND DONT start in on UNEMPLOYMENT with me....that we have to STOP paying that the 31 million unemployed will take all of those low paying Micke D and Taco Belle jobs.....gimmee a break you you really believe that would Make a freakin dent in that 31 million...That is a STRUCTURAL Problem remember no 1)....THERE IS NO SOLUTION TO THAT ISSUE...So lettum go ahead and rot if you wish, but just is not going to stop this year and you may be next....just a thought for you hard ass know it alls that listen to the cliche BS...from the Becks that say they are all lazy ....MOST are NOT.

8) Without ethics and morality in our institutions you have but one choice...and that is to find ethics and morality within yourself.There is NO political choice in the two party system. The Tea Party was immediately infiltrated by the Cabal through Dick Armey and Beck and the RNC. Its laughable. You aren't given a choice. Ron Paul is one of the few out there but he is helpless. The individual is the ONLY salvation for this country. Until we cure ourselves individually then the institutions will continue to rape us. You don't like that choice do you? After all you played by the rules, and it was everyone else that was greedy and cheated. Everyone else lived beyond their means. Everyone else supported TWO needless wars. Everyone else supported STATE are right it is the total fault of the bankers AFTER ALL....they told you what you wanted to hear...didn't they? They forced you to max the credit cards and take out the 500K mortgage...its that black President...Its those illegal aliens coming across the border to pick beans...Its those abortionist...Its those gay marriages that really tipped it over...c'mon getta are OWNED...suckered by the game your entire life if you have swallowed this BS...It is all to divide and conquere and conquer they have...The sheeple love to be owned...Just look at them...Beck will make over 60million this year doing the lords work...How many mega churches will pay their pastors millions..while people lose


Saturday, September 4, 2010


From Goldseek
Are the U.S. and other central banks selling gold?

We are of the opinion that the World Gold Council is a competent body and that they do gather accurate information on ‘Official’ gold sales worldwide. We also note that leasing is not selling just as swapping is not actually selling. The figures published by the WGC tell us that the gold selling has stopped and that central banks, including China, are buyers.

Yes, when gold is leased or swapped, the gold leaves the owners control, but unless the overriding agreement is broken the gold should return to the owner’s control. It’s there that the main questions lie. And it’s there that the statement may gain credibility.

Many are convinced that leased gold or swapped gold is a cover for what in reality is a sale. As a result many believe that the central bank holdings of gold are far less than published. If such obligations do attach to the gold owned by a nation, then at best, it is ‘at risk’ and this should be clarified. The risk of the gold not being returned does attach to that gold, because it lies under the control of an entity or person outside that bank. That certainly weakens ownership control as we all know

Why isn’t the Federal Reserve happy to prove its gold holdings in an audit?

Senator Ron Paul has wanted an Audit of the Fed for a long time for, as he said, “the audit should determine not only the simple presence of gold in the U.S. government's vaults at Fort Knox, Kentucky, and elsewhere but also "whether any of it has been obligated.”

Senator Paul is fully aware of the Federal Reserve's involvement in gold swaps with foreign banks, an admission made by Fed Governor Kevin M. Warsh a year ago in his battle with GATA's litigation against the Fed under the Freedom of Information Act. It was there that Governor Warsh insisted that the Fed's gold swap arrangements must remain secret. What was the Treasury’s response to the Senator? “Representatives from the Treasury Department and U.S. Mint did not respond to requests for comment on Paul's proposal."

Shouldn’t the Treasury, the Fed and public institutions in general be transparent? You would think so, but then the perceptions we have of government, the Fed and the gold reserves, may be radically altered and confidence damaged. After all, it was only after the Gold Standard was dropped that it was discovered that the U.K. could not cover all the banknotes they had issued [based on gold].

What stands out starkly is that if the Federal Reserve does have the gold they say it has, then an audit will reveal this and ensure confidence is bolstered in the central bank’s reserves at all levels of the monetary world. So why would a central bank not audit its holdings regularly to shore up any waning confidence? After all, as the nation’s purse holder, they should assure the public that their reserves are what they say they are.

What would happen to the Gold Price if central banks and the U.S. were selling?

Friday, September 3, 2010


If they paint a fugly number, then count on QE coming. Even though these numbers are highly manipulated and don't reflect even HALF the number of unemployed (see U6 unemployment), don't lose sight of their headline use.

Whatever the number is there are still a lot of shorts clinging to the belief this is their last chance to get out anything can happen the next few days to take their money. I even bought a tiny SH. Heheheh. I like adding to NBR ATPG on real weakness and taking profit on rips.

Metals are bumping close to oversold.

from seeking alpha

While the $20 level for silver might not sound as psychologically significant as $1000 was for gold, the events of 2008 add to the level’s importance. Silver is entering this year’s prime season at a level just below $20. This is the closest it has been since just before the financial crisis. Since the price has recovered, the past few approaches to $20 have failed, just as it took gold several approaches before $1000 was definitively achieved. Unlike in 2008, however, the price has not collapsed after the approaches have failed, indicative of a base forming. Also, the time period between attempts to break $20 has compressed, from over a year to a matter of months. This is the natural result of the uptrend in precious metals inexorably pushing the price toward $20. As long as another panic does not hit, a break upward could lead to a breakout that, with $20 barely 3% higher than current prices, could initiate another short-term uptrend.

Finally, due to the proximity, $20 is just outside current trends for the first time. The price in March 2008 was at least somewhat artificial, far above the trendlines at the time. By contrast, over the past year silver has been trading within a range between $15 and $19.50, not breaking above or below. Since the majority of investors and traders use some degree of technical analysis, price action within chart context is considered before making decisions. Therefore, a price within a trend, whether psychologically significant or not, is always more comfortable. Additionally, until resistance is hit traders are equally unlikely to sell. With $20 under siege now more than ever, the odds of it being breached are high.

Furthermore, over the past generation (1984-2009) silver has eked out an average 2.42% gain in September. Since silver bottomed in 2003, that performance has been an average 3.44%. With silver currently about 3% below $20, even an average price performance in September could do the trick. If not, barring a significant correction it is likely that it will happen sometime this fall.

Thursday, September 2, 2010


If you believe that reality and the stock market are connected then you too are a redneck. This is about making money and surviving and today was the demonstration of who is in control in this market right now. Gentle Ben told you the WILL NOT allow deflation. Whether they can do this or not is NOT relevant here. What is relevant is the meaning of his statement. He TOLD YOU that he is going to do WHATEVER it takes. AND the only thing he has is the PRINTING PRESS.

We have spoke innumerable times that this would be a trader's year and OMG how it has been that. But for many of you this is too treacherous to engage in trying to day trade in. If you have held a miners core then congratulations. Its kept you in the game in spite of the Cabals efforts to kill the trade.

IF IF IF....we get further upside to the miners in the next week....take your profit and let the baastids go. Physical gold and silver is accumulate on weakness. If our previous discussions pan out we MIGHT just might get a nice buy on the market in October....the timing remains to be seen. Now is the time to start taking profit and building your reserves.....

Bernanke Out of Bullets, But Not Bombs

By Michael Pento, Senior Economist of Euro Pacific

Word on the street is that the Fed is now "out of bullets." Many economists fear that in its efforts to spur recovery, the Fed may have already exhausted its array of monetary ammunition and that it has nothing left of significance to fire at the steadily advancing recession. They believe that since interest rates are already near zero and Fed policies have failed to inspire banks to expand commercial and consumer lending (despite ample bank reserves), the tools traditionally employed by the Fed have been rendered impotent. To their credit, these commentators are 100% correct in asserting that the Fed can't help the economy by printing more money. But it's not because the Fed policy is without consequence, but because the Fed has always been incapable of creating real growth. All it can do is manipulate the purchasing power of money. By keeping prices from falling more that they would have naturally, Fed intervention has created a burden. Lower prices would have cushioned the effects of the recession for many people. However, because it failed to spark faster GDP growth, most people now agree that Fed's traditional ordnance, namely purchases of short-duration Treasuries from primary dealers in order to depress the yield curve, has lost effectiveness. But the Fed is never... ever... ever... out of ammo. In fact, according to Mr. Bernanke himself, the central bank may be about to unleash the heavy artillery. Our central bank controls the printing press, so it has the ability to create money at will and use it to purchase anything it desires. It can and does purchase longer-dated Treasuries and other bank assets like home loans. If these funds are falling into the black hole of the banking system, there are ways for the Fed to cut out the middle man. For instance, the Fed could buy stocks and real estate directly from the public. The Fed could buy a trillion-plus dollars worth of S&P 500 stocks. Consumers that sold stock to the Fed would receive funds that didn't previously exist. M1 money supply would boom as demand deposits surged. But if the Fed continued to hold interest rates to zero, banks would continue to pay near-zero interest on their deposits. So, American consumers would then be faced with a choice: earn pennies on their savings accounts or take the cash out and jump onboard the soaring stock market. The Fed could also, if it thought necessary, create another bull market in real estate. It could guarantee 'no down payment' loans of any amount to any borrower, with a promise never to foreclose or seek compensation in the result of default. By making home purchases risk-free, such a policy would surely re-energize the housing sector. By spurring price increases for stocks and real estate, the elusive "recovery" could be conjured in an instant. The only flaw would be that nothing would actually improve. By telegraphing unlimited monetary debasement, such policies would cause a run on the dollar. Although the "dreaded risk of deflation" would no longer be discussed, investors would be forced to once again abandon savings and chase runaway prices. In other words, we would find ourselves in the exact same predicament that led to the crash of 2008. Speculation on non-traditional Fed activity is not a vain exercise. Bernanke's speech last week gave warning of major initiatives to come. First, there's this gem: "The FOMC will strongly resist deviations from price stability in the downward direction [i.e., deflation]." He also showed just how strongly he desires a return to rampant money supply growth and asset inflation when he said, "The Committee is prepared to provide additional monetary accommodation through unconventional measures if it proves necessary, especially if the outlook were to deteriorate significantly." What Bernanke means by such rhetoric is that the Fed will not only monetize assets held by banks, but will purchase assets directly from consumers - thereby placing money directly into their hands. We must immediately understand that the Fed can shower liquidity directly on the consumer in any amount it wants. The political pressure to do so will only increase as unemployment rises and economic growth falters. Therefore, rather than fearing phantom deflation, investors should prepare their portfolios for the real upcoming battle with intractable inflation.

Wednesday, September 1, 2010


As I have stated previously you must have some Junior miners exposure in your portfolio. The below article suggests some choices. I liked the third.

Leveraging with Junior Miners

The typical large existing miner bringing a new project into production will just be adding to their production roll up. The new project will only add incrementally to the large miner’s revenue. The story is quite different for a small junior miner that has only one project that they are bringing into production. As the production is ramped up, somewhere along the line, the company will gradually turn the corner into profitability and shock the market with this good news. The story of a miner suddenly being newly profitable is good to juice up the percentage returns for this particular stock. This is what is meant by the leverage of a junior miner, the returns from the investment is riskier but may be more profitable than for an established miner.

US Silver Corp

US Silver Corporation (TSXV:USA, USSIF OTC) is a relatively new Silver miner working on projects, the Coeur Mine, the Galena Mine and the Calanday Project, all purchased from Coeur d’Alene (CDE), the large cap Silver miner. The properties are in the heart of Silver Valley, Idaho. The Galena mine has ranked as the second largest silver producer mine in the United States. An earlier article by this author on US Silver is here.

The company has just turned in a profitable quarter and are looking to increase production this fall. See the following chart that show the stock price of US Silver breaking out following the path of the price of Silver